28
Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk

Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    0

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

1Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017

Commercial AuctionsAnnual Review 2017

allsop.co.uk

Page 2: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

Contents04 What happened in 2017

06 2017 auction results

07 2017 commercial auction market

08 Property analysis Sector distribution 2014 to 2017 Regional distribution 2014 to 2017 Yield analysis 2014 to 2017

12 The “allshop” barometer

14 Vendor analysis

16 Buyer analysis

18 2017 selection of typical sales

24 Outlook for 2018

26 Forthcoming auction dates for 2018

26 Contact us

Page 3: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis
Page 4: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

4 Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017

What happened in 2017

Page 5: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

5Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017

As anticipated at the end of last year, 2017 proved to be much like 2016. Investor demand has continued, largely due to the low returns available elsewhere, whilst the supply of properties has continued as property companies, private equity houses and private investors sell into a strong, cash-rich market.

Most of the data sets we measure have remained remarkably steady over the past 24 months, showing only relatively minor fluctuations. The headline figures for the whole year are as follows:

The total Commercial Auction sales for 2017 aggregated £609m (£614.m, 2016). Average lot size £661,000 (£628,000, 2016), 921 lots sold (977, 2016). Average success rate was 86% (88%, 2016) and 85% of buyers have bought before (84%, 2016). Whilst the average number of lots which were sold on reserve, at 25% is slightly below last year’s 26%, the average amount achieved over reserve has remained remarkably stable for the last few years at around 18%.

The most meaningful change has been the average initial yields of “A grade” properties, those let to the best covenants on the longest leases, where yields have moved in from an average of 6.2% in 2016 to an average of 5.7% in 2017. However this only tells part of the story as over the year “A grade” yields softened from 5.6% in February to 6.1% by December, almost back to where they started the year.

On the demand side the most notable change has been in the number of active overseas investors. For many years the percentage of overseas buyers has remained steady at 3 – 4% of all buyers, however 2017 saw a jump to 13%. Perhaps the post Brexit devaluation has not only stimulated the top end of the market in the City of London and West End but also motivated smaller private investors from overseas.

The individual Auctions for the first half of the year were reported in our Summer Review. In summary though, strong demand in the first two sales in February and March delivered excellent results with average yields ticking down slightly. The May auction saw the trend continue with yields for both the better quality, as well as the more secondary lots continuing to fall.

While the July sale saw “A grade” yields fall to an average of 5.4%, secondary retail yields moved out, with “B Grade” investments easing from 7.5% in May to 8.2%.

Over the summer, the speculation of an interest rate rise intensified and on 29th September the Bank of England signalled that an increase was imminent.

Our October auction held three weeks later saw 276 properties offered for sale realising a total of £161.4million, our largest sale since the boom years of the “noughties”. Despite the strength of demand and the size of the sale, the October results revealed a softening of average “A grade” yields to 5.8% reversing the trend seen earlier in the year. Average secondary yields remained static at 8.3%. October also saw the successful sale of our largest lot of the year, the Marks and Spencer unit in Bishop Stortford, which achieved a figure of £7.275 million (5.1%).

On 2nd November 2017 interest rates finally increased for the first time in a decade. Rising inflation led the Bank to show some support for sterling as a result of the Brexit vote in 2016.

As previously commented we did not believe a small increase in interest rates would affect investor demand, however it remained to be seen whether there would be any effect on pricing.

The December sale has so far raised £92m (81% success rate) a significant result when some observers have been suggesting at best a rapidly weakening market or at worst the imminent possibility of a crash. The average yield for “A grade” properties moved slightly further out to 6.1% from 5.8%.

Throughout the year we have seen a steady flow of larger lots coming to auction. Two very different properties sold in excess of £7 million in the room. The first was an office building in St Albans, with possible redevelopment potential, which was sold for £7.1m in July. The second was the Marks & Spencer unit in Bishop Stortford, again sold under the hammer for £7.275m. In total we sold 180 lots in excess of £1m compared to 171 in 2016.

In summary 2017 has been a good year for the secondary investment market. Buyer demand continues to be strong and there has been a steady supply of properties. As we have seen in previous years the strongest demand has been and continues to be for the best quality lots, even if pricing has needed to be adjusted slightly. Our Commercial Auction Team has raised over £609m which when combined with our Residential Team, brings the total sales for 2017 to in excess of £1billion raised through our auction rooms.

Page 6: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

6 Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017

2017 auction resultsFigures for 2014 – 2017 current totals (£) and success rates (%) Source: Allsop Auction Data, February to December figures.

£64m 91%£93m 87%

£108m 79%£91m 89%

£161m 87%£92m 81%

£76m 92%

£119m 87%

£121m 90%

£102m 92%

£70m 88%

£126m 84%

£38m 92%£70m 91%

£72m 90%£98m 93%

£110m 89%£65m 91%

£40m 93%£80m 87%

£90m 88%£111m 87%

£134m 88%£84m 89%

2014

2015

2016

2017February

March

May

July

October

December

2017 £609m 921 86% £661,000 180

Total Raised Lots Sold

Success Rate

Average Lot Size

Lots over £1m

£614m 977 88% £628,000 171

£453m 797 91% £568,000 120

£539m 872 89% £618,000 139

2016

2015

2014

Page 7: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

7Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017

UK Property Auctioneer

No.1

Pugh & Company£87m82%

Barnett Ross£78m94%

Lambert Smith Hampton£73m87%

Osborne King£20m92%

2017 commercial auction market

Allsop Commercial£610m86%

Acuitus£305m84%

January to December 2017 sales (£) and success rates (%) Source: Essential Information Group

Page 8: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

8 Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017

Property analysisSector distribution 2014 to 2017

The volume also showed an increase, up to 77% from the previous year’s 74%. This also represents an increase in the average lot size for the Retail sector, up by 5% to £594,000.

Volume gains in Industrial assets seen in 2016 were not sustained in 2017, despite, or perhaps due to the strength of demand in the wider market for the sector. Vendors appeared to be more inclined to hold assets rather than trade. £46.9m of assets were sold,

representing 8% of total sales and an average lot size of £1m.

The Office sector showed a 35% increase in value, from £38m to £51.5m of sales, 8% of the total (2016 – 6%). The influence of Permitted Development Rights is still apparent, although the reduction in occupational supply is having a positive effect on rental levels in some sub-markets. The average size of Office investments is £1.1m, again a 20% increase over the 2016 figure.

Retail investments increased their share of the year’s result, accounting for £420m, 69% of the total sum raised, up from 66% in 2016.

2017201620152014

Retail Offices Leisure Industrial Misc. G. Rents MedicalMotor Trade

Ret. W’house

£450m

£400m

£350m

£300m

£250m

£200m

£150m

£100m

£50m

£0m

Page 9: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

9Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017

Regional distribution 2014 to 2017

The total raised on the sales of assets in the South East and London eased for the first time in a number of years, £273m of assets were sold, accounting for 45% of the total value in 2017 (48% in 2016).

The “Hold” strategy identified last year still appears to be the option being adopted by many Vendors.

Increasing levels of activity were seen in the North East as well as the East and West Midlands, where sales across these three regions showed a marked improvement to £168m, 28% of the total, an increase from a more modest 23% in 2016. The average Regional lot size saw a significant increase, up to £551,000 from £499,000 in 2016.

Supply generally in the South East continues to be tight, despite exceptional demand.

South East

London North East

North West

South West

EastMidlands

WestMidlands

East Anglia

Wales Scotland Northern Ireland

£200m

£180m

£160m

£140m

£120m

£100m

£80m

£60m

£40m

£20m

£0m

2017201620152014

Page 10: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

10 Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017

Property analysisYield analysis 2008 to 2017

The continuing demand for “A-grade” investments has sustained yields between 5.5% and 6.5% over the whole decade – with the exception of the period around the financial shocks in late 2008. The yield stability of the better quality investments is clear.

“B-grade” assets, with a higher risk profile, show greater volatility, and therefore a spread of 7% to almost 10%.

During the course of 2017 the range of external events which influenced confidence is clear to see. The early part of the year saw the continuation of the downward pressure on the “A-grade” stock which had started in mid-2016. The long-heralded interest rate rise in the Autumn, coupled with Brexit uncertainty, moved the “A-grade” yield out to 6.1% by the end of the year.

Analysing single-let retail assets, sold “under the hammer” (a sample of over £1.5billion in the last decade) we categorise the properties into “A-grade” and “B-grade” investments, depending on the quality of the tenant, the length of income and the location.

Overall Retail Investment Yields10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

“A-grade” and “B-grade” investments with 5-year swap rate (monthly average)Commercial Auction Results – 2008 to date

B-Grade A-Grade 5 year swap %

Page 11: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

11Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017

“The continuing demand for “A-grade” investments has sustained yields between 5.5% and 6.5% over the whole decade.

Page 12: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

12 Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017

The “allshop” barometer

By focussing on these sales, which make up a unique and sizeable dataset, we get a good picture of investment activity across the regions, the yields achieved for similar assets in each region and any changes that may have occurred over the past 24 months. With a key element of investment being the measurement of risk we can also see the variations across the regions for differing income streams, this, we have called The allshop Barometer.

When analysing the The allshop Barometer on an annual basis we can see that in each of the three bands (length of lease), the general trend that regional yields hardened in 2017 compared to 2016. This suggests the prices secured for assets are being competed to higher levels, as buyers look further afield for yield, as competition in the South East is forcing yields down.

If we look a little closer and focus on individual regions we can see how the prices achieved differ between the regions for varying lengths of income. Scotland for example, shows the biggest difference between long income (10 – 15 years) and short income (3 – 5 years) with 43% ‘premium’ being paid for the ‘less risky’ longer tranche. This improvement could be due to the recent General Election result and an increasing perception that another referendum is becoming less likely.

Moving South of the border and into the Northern regions, blended retail yields have come in to 8.9% from 9.2%, a slight improvement. Prices achieved for long income appears to have softened in the North East.

Moving towards the Midlands, yields have come in over the past year, possibly on the back of high profile government and industrial investment in the region, with retail yields hardening to 7.1% from 7.8% a year before, a 10% shift. The premium paid for longer income within this sub-market has increased to a remarkable 19% from 9% a year before.

Wales out of all the regions has seen the least movement on the preceding year with average blended retail yields remaining relatively stable, the biggest change being for long income assets which have seen yields harden by 10% on the preceding year to 6.7%. Investors would appear to be searching far and wide for income certainty.

Closer to home, the South West has seen yields soften for shorter income whilst 5+ year income has hardened to the similar levels seen in the South East. This is perhaps a natural movement as investors look further away from the perceived safety of London and the Home Counties. The South East has been popular for some time, with investors already paying a premium in this region; as such we’ve only seen a marginal hardening of yield being reported for long income (10 – 15 years) to 5.9% from 6.2% in 2016.

Throughout the past 2 years Allsop has sold 648 High Street Shops at Auction throughout the United Kingdom.

Premium paid for longer income over shorter increased to

19%

Page 13: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

13Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017

December 2015 – October 2016 (unexpired term)

11 – 12%

10 – 11%

9 – 10%

8 – 9%

7 – 8%

6 – 7%

5 – 6%

12 – 13%

11 – 12%

10 – 11%

9 – 10%

8 – 9%

7 – 8%

6 – 7%

5 – 6%

3 Years – 5 Years Net Yield Average

5 Years – 9 Years Net Yield Average

10 Years – 15 Years Net Yield Average

December 2016 – October 2017 (unexpired term)

3 Years – 5 Years Net Yield Average

5 Years – 9 Years Net Yield Average

10 Years – 15 Years Net Yield Average

Page 14: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

Private Investors (operating without a corporate structure) increased their presence disposing £87m of assets, an increase of 17% over the previous year’s tally.

Disposals for Receivers fell back to 6% of the total, from 20% in 2016, reflecting firmer market conditions and less lender intervention. There still seems to be a proportion of consensual disposals, but this is not easy to measure as instructions tend to be issued directly by an Owner, rather than the bank.

Institutional Owners maintained a presence in the room providing around 11% of the value of sales, and also accounting for the largest average lot size at £850,000.

Corporate Vendors took advantage of market demand and nearly doubled their volume of sales, from 25 lots in 2016 to 47 lots. The access to a wide pool of buyers that the auction room gives to the Corporate Vendor, for both “sale and leaseback” and operational property rationalisation is clearly appealing.

The Private Property Company, (i.e. without external shareholders) continues to dominate the market, with £356m of sales, and almost 60% of the volume.

Vendor analysisVolume of disposals by vendor type and sales 2014 to 2017

£ Raised 2017£ Raised 2015£ Raised 2014

Priv. Propco

Receivers Priv. Investor

Corporate Institutional Trustees PLC Propco

Govt.Bodies

£400m

£350m

£300m

£250m

£200m

£150m

£100m

£100m

£50m

£0

£ Raised 2016

Vendor Breakdown – by £m

Page 15: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

15Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017

A selection of our clients

On the instructions of CBRE Receivers

On the instructions of Receivers

Page 16: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

16 Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017

Buyer analysis

The survey reveals the large majority of our buyers are experienced at auctions, are continuing to rely on cash reserves to complete whilst demand for larger lots remains strong. Looking to the year ahead buyers remain keen to purchase in the auction room, with the greatest demand being for the higher value lots (£500,000+).

Continuing a trend seen since the inception of the survey, the majority of buyers in the room have bought at auction before (85%), affirming auction as a popular way to purchase (84% in 2016, 79% in 2015 and 80% in 2014). Anecdotally many buyers are preferring the auction room having experienced delays and disappointment with traditional private treaty purchases (Graph a).

2017 has seen a significant rise in ‘overseas’ buyers in the room with 13% of purchasers coming from

outside the UK. This contrasts with an average of 4% of ‘overseas’ buyers over the previous 3 years (Graph b). This sharp rise has perhaps been aided by a significant devaluation of Sterling since June 2016, as well as the perceived strength of property ownership in the United Kingdom which contribute to making it an attractive global investment location.

Cash remains the predominant method of funding purchases in the room with 85% of purchasers stating they require no finance when purchasing. This is a sharp increase on the proceeding years (70% in 2016, 69% in 2015 and 65% in 2014) and perhaps reflects slower lending timescales, leading buyers to seek finance post completion. This survey excludes those seeking finance post completion (Graph c).

Asked at the point of exchange, our Buyers’ Survey has been running since 2012 and picks up on compelling trends both continuing and new.

Graph a

Have you bought a property at auction before?

Graph b

How far are you located from the property you have purchased?

60%

55%

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

In the same region

Outside the region

Overseas

2017

2014

20162015

% of ‘Yes’ responders

Within5 miles

84%

85%

2017

79%

2016

80%

2015

2014

Page 17: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

17Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017

Looking forward to the year ahead, a high proportion of buyers intend to buy a commercial property again at auction over the next 12 months (82% in 2017, 78% in 2016) while 96% of buyers have stated their intention to buy a commercial property again at auction over the next 5 years (93% in 2016). This continued ‘mid-term demand’ we put down to a low interest rate environment, the slow pace of traditional transactions and a good supply of a wide range of properties to the auction room (Graph d).

Graph e

How much do you intend toinvest in any single property?

Graph f

Allsop £1m+ Lots YTD

Graph c

How do you intend to fund the purchase?

Graph d

Do you intend to buy another commercial property at auction in the next 12 months? (% of ‘Yes’ responders)

40%

£0 –£250,000

£250,000 –£500,000

£500,000 –£1m

£1m+

30%

20%

10%

FinanceNo finance

60

200180

160140

120

100

80

Sold

Investor demand on a micro scale shows continuing strong demand for larger lot sizes with 30% of buyers looking to invest £1m+ (30% in 2016, 30% in 2015). We have also seen the demand for £250,000 – £500,000 lot sizes over the past 4 years continue to improve, perhaps a reflection of recent pension freedoms allowing buyers to diversify their pension pots, investors coming out of the residential “buy to let” market to diversify into commercial property due to taxation changes, 33% in 2017, 30% in 2016, 29% in 2015 and 23% in 2014) (Graph e). This part of the survey is somewhat reflective of the composition of the catalogues released throughout the year. Throughout 2017 we sold 180 properties over £1m, 171 in 2016 (Graph f) and so we would expect for the buyers of these large lots to be seeking similarly priced assets in the future.

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%2014 2015 2016 2017

2014

2015

2016

2017

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

2017

2014

20162015

Page 18: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

18 Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017

February

2017 selection of typical sales

£1.51M 7.35% NIY

Basingstoke Lot 44 SOLD

Multi let industrial estate comprising 15 units, fully let. Total net rents £117,752pa.

Industrial

£1.68M 4.86% NIY

Epsom Lot 85 SOLD

Town centre opticians with dental practice and flat above. Total rents £86,700pa.

Retail

£453,000 4.4% NIY

Gants Hill Lot 2 SOLD

Shop and upper part let to private individual at £21,000pa.

Retail

£970,000 4.85% NIY

Chesterfield Lot 22 SOLD

Attractive Co-Op convenience store with parking. Let at £49,725pa with RPI linked reviews until 2031 without breaks.

Retail

Page 19: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

19Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017

March

£2.45M 4.72% NIY

Wood Green London N22 Lot 96 SOLD

Two shops with maisonette above, and lapsed consent for nine flats. Total rents £122,983pa.

Retail

£1.08M 4.7% NIY

Stow-On-The-Wold Lot 80 SOLD

An attractive Lloyds Bank let at £53,700pa until 2022.

Bank

£1.29M 5.16% NIY

Sutton Coldfield Lot 93 SOLD

Let to Azzuri Restaurants (ASK Italian) for 35 years from 2000 at a current rent of £70,500pa.

Leisure

£2.9M 5.18% NIY

Norwich Lot 87 SOLD

Health centre and pharmacy with parking on a substantial site. Tenants include Norfolk Community Health & Care Trust, Cambridgeshire NHS Trust and Boots the Chemist. Total rents £159,896.32pa.

Medical

Page 20: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

20 Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017

May

2017 selection of typical sales

£2.6M 5% NIY

Stoke Newington Lot 94 SOLD

Shop let at £138,200pa, rising to £151,950pa in 2020, guaranteed by Whole Foods Market Inc. until 2030 without break.

Retail

£3.25M 6.78% NIY

Melksham Lot 100 SOLD

Purpose built supermarket with 136 space car park let to Waitrose Ltd at £235,000pa until 2025.

Retail

£1.75M 7.34% NIY

Yeovil Lot 39 SOLD

Well located Yodel distribution warehouse let at £136,400pa until 2022.

Investment

£1.4M 4.16% NIY

East Grinstead Lot 18 SOLD

Three shops, dental practice, maisonette and two flats. Tenants include Vision Express and Millets. Total rents £68,500pa plus two flats with VP.

Mixed Use

Page 21: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

21Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017

July

£1.060M 6% NIY

Kendal Lot 106 SOLD

Well located shop let to W,H,Smith at £68,900pa on a lease expiring 2022.

Retail

£1.665M 5.4% NIY

Huntingdon Lot 15 SOLD

Town centre shop with 3 flats above entirely let to Iceland Foods Limited at £95,000pa until 2029 without breaks.

Retail

£1.3M 5% NIY

Wembley Lot 91 SOLD

Restaurant let until 2029 with fixed rental increase in 2019, and maisonette let on AST. Total rent £69,400pa.

Restaurant

£7.1M 5.1% NIY and £321 psf capital value

St Albans Lot 100 SOLD

City centre office let to charity and the secretary of State. Total rents £388,844pa. Future residential potential.

Office

Page 22: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

22 Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017

October

£1.67M 3.67% NIY

Buckhurst Hill Lot 92 SOLD

Attractive restaurant let to Prezzo Limited until 2045 without breaks at £65,000pa.

Restaurant

£4.47M 5.74% NIY

Smethwick Lot 201 SOLD

Freehold parade comprising 21 shops, 6 flats and potential for further residential conversion. Total rents £273,566pa.

Retail

£3.3M 2.88% NIY

London NW11 Lot 96 SOLD

Petrol filling station let to Co-Operative Foodstores Ltd until 2027 at £101,177pa with fixed uplifts.

Motor Trade

£7.275M 5.09% NIY

Bishops Stortford Lot 105 SOLD

Department store let to Marks and Spencer PLC at £394,996pa until 2027 without break, with fixed uplifts.

Retail

2017 selection of typical sales

Page 23: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

23Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017

December

£2.87M 4.8% NIY and £169 psf capital value

Waltham Abbey Lot 46 SOLD

Town centre offices extending to 16,963 sq. ft. with lapsed consent for residential conversion. Let until 2019 at a current rent of £146,600pa.

£1.07M 4.68% NIY

Northampton Lot 19 SOLD

Grade II Listed former bank entirely let to Bank of Scotland plc until 2031 without break. Current rent £53,000pa.

Bank

£4.1M £522 psf capital value

London E1 Lot 6 SOLD

Grade II Listed former bank on Shoreditch High Street extending to 7,855 sq. ft. with redevelopment potential.

Bank

Office

£2.1M 5.8% NIY

Harrogate Lot 80 SOLD

Attractive town centre bank let to Halifax Ltd until 2026. Current rent £129,500pa.

Bank

Page 24: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

24 Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017

“96% of all Buyers intend to purchase again in the next 5 years, with 82% indicating they are likely to buy in the next 12 months.

Outlook for 2018

Page 25: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

25Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017

At the end of 2016 we were “cautiously optimistic” about the prospects for 2017. We foresaw continuing strong demand from Private Investors for quality investments with perhaps a cooling in demand for more secondary and tertiary locations. We thought total sales were unlikely to exceed 2016’s level but hoped that they might be close. In the end with only £5m difference we are not unhappy with our predictions or the result.

Forecasting an outcome for 2018 looks more challenging than last year. Once again there are a number of significant issues which may impact the private buyer market. Interest rates; when will we see further rises – Brexit; will there ever be any positive news? Will Teresa May be able to keep enough support to remain Prime Minister? As we go to print it appears there has been progress towards starting discussions on a future trade agreement. One thing is clear, as the negotiations so far have been challenging, one can only imagine what the next stage will be like. On a positive note the FTSE finishes the year at an all-time high.

In its latest quarterly report the Bank of England predicted subdued economic growth of 1.6% for 2018, with inflation falling back to 2.6% with interest rates predicted to rise to 1% by 2020. With investment returns so low elsewhere and with the prospect of only modest increases in interest rates over the next few years it would seem likely that Private Investors will continue to look favourably on the real estate sector. Indeed our regular buyers’ survey reveals that 96% of all buyers intend to purchase

again in the next 5 years, with 82% indicating they are likely to buy in the next 12 months.

This correlates with our view from the rostrum where we can still see a good number of bidders per lot, particularly for those generating long term secure income. If buyers are being honest with us, there is little obvious borrowing happening in the auction market, with 85% of buyers reporting they require no finance for their purchases. Warnings by the Bank of England

relating to rising consumer and residential mortgage debt have been well flagged but little has been said about commercial property debt, which might infer that there is still subdued lending to the sector. The observed rise in average yields over the last 6 months would suggest there has been a price adjustment

to reflect the slightly uncertain outlook. However it should be remembered that within those averages some very low yields have been paid for the most sought after properties where competition has been keenest. Quality always shines through.

With weak economic growth it would seem likely that tenant demand will continue to drift in all but the most sought after areas. In the weaker areas, yields may continue to move out gradually following the trend which has already been observed.

On the supply side, we continue to see a wide range of Vendors coming to the market, including Private Equity Groups, divesting their loan book purchases, Private Investors, a number of whom are trading and Property Companies who are breaking up and rationalising portfolios. In 2017 the Business Rate Revaluation has undoubtedly had an effect on rental values in the areas where Rates have risen steeply. Where Rates have fallen, rents have remained subdued as properties are generally located in areas of weak tenant demand in any event.

This year in April sees the implementation of Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards (MEES). Very simply if a building has an EPC rating below E then it cannot be let on a new tenancy or sold. Most owners seem aware of this legislation but some older properties when they come up for lease renewal, may require significant capex to be brought up to standard. It remains to be seen as to how many of those economically un-viable buildings there are and if their numbers have any effect on the supply of assets to the market.

In summary we feel it would be prudent to temper our optimism from this time last year. If assets are correctly priced there is still extremely strong demand from investors with some historic low yields continuing to be paid. We see no reason why demand from private investors should change significantly in the foreseeable future, as long as interest rate rises remain modest.

Weaker tenant demand in secondary and tertiary locations may well lead to further easing of yields, unless the properties in these locations are let on long leases to the best covenants. For better quality assets we do not see any reasons for pricing to suffer further significant changes, as it would appear already to have adjusted. Perhaps more than in recent years, pricing is going to be critical if a successful result is to be achieved.

Thank you to all our clients and buyers for their support in 2017 and we look forward to working with you again in 2018.

of all our Buyers purchasing with cash

85%

Page 26: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

26 Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017

Contact us

Patrick Kerr FRICS Partner

[email protected]: 0207 543 6701

Joined 1977

Duncan Moir FRICS Partner & Auctioneer

[email protected]: 0207 543 6704

Joined 1986

George Walker FRICS Partner & Auctioneer

[email protected]: 0207 543 6706

Joined 1997

Mark Gower MRICS Partner

[email protected]: 0207 543 6727

Joined 1996

Alex Neil MRICS Partner

[email protected]: 0207 543 6895

Joined 2002

Forthcoming auction dates for 2018CommercialThe Berkeley, Wilton Place Knightsbridge SW1X 7RL

Tuesday 6th February 2018Online catalogue available: 13th January 2018

Thursday 22nd March 2018Online catalogue available: 3rd March 2018

Tuesday 15th May 2018Online catalogue available: 21st April 2018

Tuesday 3rd July 2018Online catalogue available: 9th June 2018

Tuesday 16th October 2018Online catalogue available: 22nd September 2018

Tuesday 4th December 2018Online catalogue available: 10th November 2018

Residential15th February 2018InterContinental, One Hamilton Place, Park Lane W1J 7QYOnline catalogue available: 29th January 2018

28th March 2018InterContinental, One Hamilton Place, Park Lane W1J 7QYOnline catalogue available: 12th March 2018

31st May 2018The Cumberland Hotel, Great Cumberland Place, London W1H 7DLOnline catalogue available: 14th May 2018

19th July 2018InterContinental, One Hamilton Place, Park Lane W1J 7QYOnline catalogue available: 2nd July 2018

13th September 2018The Cumberland Hotel, Great Cumberland Place, London W1H 7DLOnline catalogue available: 27th August 2018

1st November 2018The Cumberland Hotel, Great Cumberland Place, London W1H 7DLOnline catalogue available: 15th October 2018

19th December 2018InterContinental, One Hamilton Place, Park Lane W1J 7QYOnline catalogue available: 3rd December 2018

Neil Mackilligin FRICS Consultant

[email protected]: 0207 543 6702

Joined 1983

Page 27: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

27Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017

Gregor Campbell MRICS Partner

[email protected]: 0207 543 6703

Joined 1986

Doug Guild MRICS Senior Surveyor

[email protected]: 0207 543 6890

Joined 2015

Ben Hodge MRICS Senior Surveyor

[email protected]: 0207 543 6831

Joined 2011

Philip Parsons MRICS Partner

[email protected]: 0207 543 6891

Joined 1991

Tom Hanson MRICS Surveyor

[email protected]: 0207 543 6807

Joined 2014

Chris Childs MRICS Partner

[email protected]: 0207 543 6817

Joined 2006

Antonia Beech Auction Assistant

[email protected]: 0207 543 6718

Joined 2017

Jonathan Wright MRICS Associate

[email protected]: 0207 543 6725

Joined 2008

Charlotte Sloan Secretary

[email protected]: 0207 543 6705

Joined 2008

Will Clough MRICS Associate & Auctioneer

[email protected]: 0207 543 6838

Joined 2010

Chattie Webb–Bowen Secretary

Amelia Sweetland Secretary

[email protected]: 0207 543 6824

[email protected]: 0207 543 6707

Joined 2014

Joined 2017

Page 28: Commercial Auctions - Allsop...Auctions Annual Review 2017 allsop.co.uk Contents 04 What happened in 2017 06 2017 auction results 07 2017 commercial auction market 08 Property analysis

28 Commercial Auctions Annual Review 2017

Head office – West EndTel: +44 (0)20 7437 6977

City officeTel: +44 (0)20 7588 4433

Leeds officeTel: +44 (0)113 236 6677

Brighton officeTel: +44 (0)1273 322 000