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The debt-ceiling crisis, 2011
In general, do you think the elected officials in Washington
who have dealt with the debt ceil-ing in the past few days have be-
haved mostly like responsible adults or mostly like spoiled
children?
Spoiled childrenResponsible adults
Exodus of the moderates
Senator Evan Bayh (D-Ind.), 2010
"There is too much partisanship and not enough progress -- too much narrow ideology and not enough practical problem-solving. Even at a time of enormous challenge, the peoples' business is not being done."
Senator Olympia Snowe (R-Me.), 2012
"It's a reflection of the political dynamic in America, where we don't look at America as a whole. We look at it through the red and blue prism. [We have a] Senate and an overall process that lends itself to dysfunction and political paralysis that doesn't allow problems to be solved."
Structure of U.S. governmentPresident of the United States435 United States Representatives100 United States Senators
Support for the President’s policies by party
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
House of Representatives
Democratic support Republican support
Ideology by party in the House, 1967
-1.4
-1.3
-1.2
-1.1
-1 -0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0 0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1 1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Ideological distribution 90th Congress
Democrats Republicans
DW-Nominate score
Ideology by party in the House, 1967 & 2007
-1.4
-1.3
-1.2
-1.1
-1 -0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0 0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1 1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Ideological distribution110th Congress
Democrats Republicans
DW-Nominate score
-1.4
-1.3
-1.2
-1.1
-1 -0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0 0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1 1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Ideological distribution 90th Congress
Democrats Republicans
DW-Nominate score
Ideology in the U.S. electorate (ANES)
Liberal Moderate Conservative0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Ideology 1972-1976
Liberal Moderate Conservative0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Ideology 2004-2008
Ideology in the U.S. electorate by party
Liberal Moderate Conservative0
10
20
30
40
50
1974-1976
Democrats Republicans
Ideology in the U.S. electorate by party (ANES)
Liberal Moderate Conservative0
10
20
30
40
50
1974-1976
Democrats Republicans
Liberal Moderate Conservative0
10
20
30
40
50
2004-2008
Democrats Republicans
The Election Fundamentals
•Presidential performance▫Condition of the economy▫Condition of foreign affairs
•Incumbency•Baseline partisanship of the electorate
•Positioning of the candidates on the issues
Obama’s challenges Baseline partisanship of the electorate (ANES)
1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 20080
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Democrats Republicans Independents
Obama’s challenges Positioning of candidates on the issues (ANES)
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008Nixon Carter Reagan Reagan Bush I Clinton Clinton Bush II Bush II Obama
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Republican closer Same distance Democrat closer
Obama’s challenges Approval of job performance
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 7540
45
50
55
60
Approval of incumbent's job per-formance
Incu
mb
en
t p
art
y p
erc
en
t of
two-p
art
y vo
te
Obama’s challenges and advantages Condition of the economy
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.040
45
50
55
60
Change in real disposable income per capita
Incu
mb
en
t p
art
y p
erc
en
t of
two-p
art
y vo
te
Obama’s advantages Condition of foreign affairs
•At peace▫Withdrawal from Iraq▫Withdrawal from Afghanistan
•Successful operations▫Osama bin Laden▫Libya▫Egypt
Obama’s advantages Incumbency
Incumbent Winners Incumbent Losers
• George W. Bush• Bill Clinton• Ronald Reagan• Richard M Nixon• Lyndon B Johnson• Dwight Eisenhower• Harry S Truman• Franklin D Roosevelt
• George H W Bush• Jimmy Carter• Gerald Ford
10 successes in 13 attempts (77 percent)
Congress: Senate
Class I Senators•Elected in 2006 or special elections since
Partisan composition▫21 Democrats (6 retiring)▫10 Republicans (3 retiring)▫2 Independents (1 retiring)
Congress: House of Representatives
Congress
Years
Republican-held Obama districts
(Obama plurality in 08)
Democratic-held McCain districts
(McCain plurality in 08) >20 10-20 5-10 0-5 0-5 5-10 10-20 >20
111th 2009-11 3 5 10 15 16 10 11 12 112th 2011-12 1 15 21 25 3 3 5 1
If a Republican wins …
•Continued polarization•Less urgency for debt reduction and
spending cuts•Tit for tat: No incentive for congressional
Democrats to cooperate•Strains on the Republican electoral
coalition
Partisanship of electorate by birth cohort
Be-fore
1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 19810
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Democratic Independent Republican
Birth cohort (decade starting in year)
If Obama wins …
•Continued polarization•No “mandate”•Fewer incentives for sabotage•Shared responsibility•Necessity: The double witching hour
2008 and 2010 elections in historical context
House seats lost in midterm elections since 1900
Seats lost
Election President Party
77 1922 Harding Republican 71 1938 F Roosevelt Democratic 63 2010 Obama Democratic 61 1914 Wilson Democratic 57 1910 Taft Republican 55 1942 F Roosevelt Democratic 52 1930 Hoover Republican 52 1994 Clinton Democratic 48 1958 Eisenhower Republican 48 1974 Ford Republican
Cart
er
Reag
an
Reag
an
Bu
sh I
Cli
nto
n
Cli
nto
n
Bu
sh I
I
Bu
sh I
I
Ob
am
a
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
40
45
50
55
60
Winner's share of popular vote
Support for the President’s policies by party
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Senate
Democratic support Republican support
Party Unity votes in Congress1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
House Senate
Relation of congressional and presidential voting
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Split House districts Split Senate seats
Hou
se d
istr
icts
Sen
ate
seats
Obama’s challenges and advantages Perception of candidates’ positions on the issues
Probability of vote margin (Silver)
20+ 15-20 10-15 5-10 0-5 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20+Republican Obama
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Romney Santorum
Latino vote for Democratic and Republican nominees, 1972 – 2008
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996200020042008
Democratic Republican