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Colorado River System & Central Arizona Project System Status, Risks & Vulnerabilities April 10, 2015
Colorado River Basin
Lake Powell
Lake Mead
Impact of Drought & Supply/Demand Imbalance on Storage
Lake Powell
Lake Mead
03/31/2015
03/31/2015 45% Full (10.9 MAF)
40% Full (10.4 MAF)
Looming Shortage
9901,0001,0101,0201,0301,0401,0501,0601,0701,0801,0901,1001,1101,1201,1301,1401,1501,1601,1701,1801,1901,2001,2101,220
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
201424 M
onth
2015
2016
Lake
Mea
d El
evat
ion
(ft)
Observed Elevation Projected 24 Month 1075 - First Shortage Level
91% Full (25 MAF)
12.52 MAF Powell Release
35% Full (9.6 MAF)
Lake Mead Since 2000
336-mile aqueduct stretches from Lake Havasu to Tucson
14 pumping plants lift water nearly 3,000 feet
8 siphons, 3 tunnels
Lake Pleasant/New Waddell Dam
Annually delivers approx. 520 billion gallons (1.6 mill acre-feet)
Delivery of Colorado River water began in 1985 in Maricopa County
Construction complete in 1993
Central Arizona Project
CAP operates six underground storage facilities
Permitted capacity of 390,000 acre-feet per year
AWBA and CAP have stored 3.4 million acre-feet for cities and tribes
Nevada has stored 600,000 acre-feet
CAP Underground Storage
Water Source Million Acre-Feet (MAF) % of Total
SURFACE WATER
Colorado River 2.8 40 %
CAP 1.6 22.5%
On-River 1.2 16.9%
In-State Rivers 1.2 17%
Salt-Verde .7
Gila & others .5
GROUNDWATER 2.7 40%
RECLAIMED WATER 0.2 3%
Total 7 MAF
Arizona’s Water Supply Annual Water Budget
Source: ADWR, 2015
Probabilities of Lower Basin Shortage
Source: Bureau of Reclamation January 2015 CRSS modeling.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Probability of any level of shortage (Mead ≤ 1,075 ft.)
0 21 54 62 59
1st level shortage (Mead ≤ 1,075 and ≥1,050 ft)
0 21 45 40 33
2nd level shortage (Mead <1,050 and ≥1,025 ft)
0 0 9 19 19
3rd level shortage (Mead <1,025) 0 0 0 3 7
Lower Basin Shortage Tiers and Volumes
P1-P3 1.14 MAF
P4 (56KAF)
P3 (68.4 KAF)
M&I and Indian (788 KAF)
NIA (225 KAF)
Ag Pool (300 KAF)
Other Excess (157 KAF)
Excess
Long Term Entitlements
CAP P4
2017 Level 1 Shortage = 320 KAF
On-River 1.2 MAF
CAP 1.6 MAF
Arizona Priorities – 2.8 MAF Total
Water Stored
Phoenix Active Management Area 3,533,831 AF
Pinal Active Management Area 1,024,148 AF
Tucson Active Management Area 611,126 AF
Arizona Water Banking Authority 3,897,588 AF
Total Certified Credits 9,066,693 AF *Credit Balances as of 2/12/2014
Proactive Water Management Programs
• Lake Mead Protection Volume: 740,000 AF
• Pilot System Conservation Program: ~ 75,000 AF
• Augmentation Weather modification in the Upper Colorado River
Basin Potential local and binational desalination
opportunities Basin States Augmentation Work Group
Water Production for Tucson Water Service Area 1940-2014
Wat
er P
rodu
ctio
n fo
r TW
Ser
vice
Are
a (A
cre-
Feet
)
CAP Production Potable Production TARP Production Reclaimed Production
2014 Groundwater
CAP
Reclaimed Water
TARP
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Groundwater Use at 1941 Level
Total Potable Water Use at 1987 Level
Potable Water Use - Projection to 2050 with Shortage
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
220,000
240,000
260,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
Volu
me
(Acr
e-Fe
et)
Year
?
Colorado River Water
Combination of Renewable and Finite Water Supplies Banked Colorado River Water
Potable Demand @130 GPCD
* The population data was provided to TW by United States Census Bureau
wrrc.arizona.edu
Water Policy Forum: Arizona Solutions to Colorado
River Supply Challenges
Comments by Sharon B. Megdal, Ph.D. [email protected]
April 10, 2015
17
Importance of Colorado River water and groundwater management
CAP canal at Twin Peaks Pumping Station
Photos by Rodolfo Peón
Tucson Water CAP Water Recharge Basin
18
J. S. Famiglietti and M. Rodell, Water in the Balance, Science, 340, 1300 (2013)
Groundwater Storage Trends 2003—2012
Importance of Arizona Water Banking Authority and other storage
Graphic courtesy of S.B. Megdal et al. “Water Banks: Using Managed Aquifer Recharge to Meet Water Policy Objectives.” http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/6/6/1500
Different sectors and locales are impacted differently by drought and
Colorado River shortage
19
Central Arizona – drip irrigated field
Yuma, Arizona
20
Importance of Education and Engagement
