Collective Security in Space, Paris, 15 May 2006

Polis

h S

pace

Offi

ce

Smaller European Countries and Space Security

Jakub Ryzenko

Ryzenko@onet.pl

Institute of International RelationsWarsaw University

&Polish Space Office

• Practical consequences of space security developments for smaller European countries

• Policy implications

Consequences of existence of:

• Missile defense system

• ASATs

• Space-to-Earth weapons

Space-related security goals

• protect own territory

• protect own space systems

• protect ability to use space systems

• deny space augmentation for enemy

Missile defense

• Limited increase of territory protection

• Increased freedom of political maneuver

• Is space component needed?

ASATs• Ground combat less asymmetric

Space Enables theNew American Way of War

9,251

7,000 32%GPS-guided90 Days; 68.2 Mbps/5K

32%UnguidedIraq, 2003

68%19,948Guided(Iraqi Freedom)

27%

41%

3%

31%

66%

8%92%

29 Days; 51.1 Mbps/5K

6,000Laser/EO-guided(Enduring Freedom)

9,000UnguidedAfghanistan, 2001-02

700GPS-guided78 Days; 24.5 Mbps/5K

7,000Laser/EO-guided(Allied Force)

16,000UnguidedSerbia, 1999

20,450Laser/EO-guided(Desert Storm): 37 Days1 Mbps/5K Forces

245,000UnguidedKTO, 1991

ASATs• Ground combat less asymmetric

• Increase of risk for own space systems

• Negative economic consequences

Space-to-Earth weapons

• Increased risk of retaliation

• Need to seek alliances with ASAT-owners

Space security developments ...

… should not destabilize international relations

… must not weaken transatlantic relations

Increasing of space awareness = confidence building measure

and is a potential field for cooperation

Space surveillance

Knowledge about and understanding of space security issues in smaller countries is very limited.

Formulation of policies will most probably be a reaction to US or European initiative.