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Collapse. Iceland on the Edge of Insolvency and Chaos, 2008-2009. Gudni Jóhannesson, [email protected]. “How do you like Iceland?”. “Ah, the bankrupt country...”. “How do you like Iceland?”. “Ah, the bankrupt country...” - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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CollapseIceland on the Edgeof Insolvency and Chaos, 2008-2009
Gudni Jóhannesson, [email protected]
“How do you like Iceland?”
“Ah, the bankrupt country...”
“How do you like Iceland?”
“Ah, the bankrupt country...”
“The bad news is that the banks collapsed, but the good news is that now the whole world knows where Iceland is”
What happened in 2008-09?
15-25 September. Storm Clouds. 25-29 September. Tidal Wave. 29 Sept. – 3 Oct. Adrift. 3-6 October. Shipwreck. 6-9 October. Torpedo. 9 Oct.-19 Nov. S.O.S. 19 Nov.-14 Jan. Calm Before the
Storm 14-21 January. Revolt 21-26 January. New Land in
Sight?
15.-25. Sept. Storm Clouds
Three Banks with 85% share: Glitnir Kaupþing (Kaupthing) Landsbanki
Centre-right coalition of Social Democrats and Independence Party
“I think we will see brighter times in a few months’ time”. Landsbanki Bank Manager, 23
Sept. 2008
25-29 Sept. Tidal Wave
“This is the biggest bankrobbery in Iceland’s history and clearly a part of a bigger struggle”. Businessman Jón Ásgeir Jóhannesson, 30
September 2008. “The end is near.”
Unnamed banker, end of September 2008.
29 Sept. – 3 Oct. Adrift
“The króna is third from bottom, with regard to currency strength for the last 12 months. Only the Dollar in Zimbabwe and the Turkmen Manat have fared worse”. Channel Two News, 2 Oct. 2008
“The Icelandic financial system is collapsing”. Gylfi Magnússon, Economics Lecturer,
State Radio News, 3 Oct. 2008
3-6 October 2008. Shipwreck
“There is a serious danger that the whole Icelandic economy could be dragged down with the banks, leading to a state bankruptcy. No responsible regime can allow that to happen. ... May God bless Iceland”. Prime Minister Geir H.
Haarde, 6 October 2008.
6-9 October 2008. Torpedo
6-9 October 2008. Torpedo
“The Icelandic government, believe it or not, have told me yesterday they have no intention of honouring their obligations here”. Alistair Darling, Chancellor, 8 October 2008.
„Brown and Darling, PLEASE PLEASE HELP US.“ Jason in Wokingham, 8 October 2008.
9 Oct. -19 Nov. S.O.S.
“It’s not a sign of weak- ness to ask for help, it’s a sign of weakness not to ask for help. It’s like when your kids have an accident and you don’t call the doctor because you are too proud, you know you just don’t behave like that”. Economic Professor Gylfi
Zoega, 10 October 2008
19 Nov. 2008 - 14 Jan. 2009. Calm Before the Storm
“I´m not sure that you here can speak on behalf of the
nation” (loud boooos...) Foreign Minister Ingibjörg
Gísladóttir, public meeting on the crisis, 24 November 2008.
“This [currency regulations] are very similar to the methods used in the GDR“. “Welcome to East Germany“, www.visir.is 4.
December 2008.
14-21 January 2009. Revolt
“USE-LESS GOVERN-MENT, USE-LESS GOVERN-MENT!” Protest slogan, 20
Jan. and onwards “All back down!
There will be gas, gas, gas!” Police warning at
Parliament, 20 Jan.
21-26 January 2009. New Land in Sight? “Those who can only
protest by throwing bottles and rocks are cowards who can eat shit. It is their fault that the police needs to use force. ... I am “orange”. Let’s continue our protests but stop the violence!” Comment by “Óli” on
Facebook, 22 Jan. 2009
What happened? 1) Collapse of the króna
What happened? 2) Stock market bubble
What happened? 3) Housing bubble
What happened? 4) Super-sized banks
What happened? 5) CDS
What happened? 6) Run on Icelandic banks
Who and what was to blame?
International financial crisis, Capitalism, Greedy and criminal bankers and businessmen, Flawed EU regulations, Generation change in Icelandic business world, Icelandic arrogance, Tiny currency, No assistance from abroad, Overspending by everybody in Iceland, Apathy by banking sector watchdogs, Apathy by the academic community
Looking Back I. International Crisis
“Bad loans” in the USCapitalismThe CapitalistsFaults in the System
Looking Back II. “Útrás”
“Útrás”: “Outvasion”, Expansion, Internationalization
EEAPrivatizationGeneration Change
Looking Back III. Arrogance
Iceland a “world financial centre”Foreign warnings: “envy” and
“ignorance”Masculine, competitive valuesBlindness in the media and the
academic world
Looking Back IV. Negligence
Financial Services AuthorityCentral Bank of IcelandParliament and government
Looking Back V. Excess
“Expand or Perish”Continued growth, despite warning
signs in 2006 Icesave and state guarantee
Looking Back VI. Isolation
No assistance from abroadThe krónaEEA not enough, EU the only way?
Looking Back VII. Lies
Cross-ownershipCronyismDisregard for rules and regulationsTax evasion“Fake transactions”
Looking back VIII. Lavishness
StateCouncils Individuals
Looking ahead. Hope?
Icesave burdenEU or not?Natural resourcesConfidence, yes ... but less
materialism!