Cohesively Clinging to the Complex Systems Cycle ......2013/06/21 · tighter organization countering the inevitable entropic drift toward disorder 6/25/2013 3rd Viennese Resilience

Cohesively Clinging to the

Complex Systems Cycle:

Ecosystem Growth

Development, and Collapse

Brian D. Fath International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria

Towson University, Maryland, USA

markus

FASresearch

Outline

Ecosystem organization and dynamics

Complex systems cycle and collapse

Scales of change

Cohesion and sustainability

3rd Viennese Resilience Workshop 6/25/2013

Ecological Systems are Open

Environment

Source Sink

Input-State-Output

Ecosystem

Open systems connect to their environment

through both inputs and outputs

6/25/2013 3rd Viennese Resilience Workshop

…build and maintain order and organization

by taking in high quality energy, using it, and

passing degraded energy outside of the

system.

System

(human or

natural)

High quality

Energy Input

Low quality

Energy output (heat)

Thermodynamically, Open Systems


Sustainability Constraints

Input, Output, and System Dynamics

System

Input ? Output ?

Input availability AND Output absorbance


biomimicryguild.com

Ecosystems have evolved and developed within

these input-output environmental constraints.

Ecosystem ?

Input Output

Environment

What patterns of organization and

complexity arise in ecosystems?


Ecosystems are dynamic

Biological systems are characterized by a capacity for

directional change – the cumulative manifestation of positive

feedback.

Increase in complexity and order as the result of controlled

growth – decrease internal entropy

Succession – ordered pattern of growth and development


Primary succession – initial establishment and development

of an ecosystem in an area devoid of an ecological

community


Secondary succession – reestablishment of an ecosystem

from the remnants of a previous biological community

following disturbance


Trends to be expected in ecosystem

development (EP Odum 1969)

Ecosystem Attribute Early Mature

Stage Stage

Community energetics

Gross production/community respiration (P/R ratio) >1 ~1

Gross Production/standing crop biomass (P/B ratio) high low

Biomass supported/unit energy flow (B/E ratio) low high

Food chains linear weblike

Nutrient cycling

Nutrient exchange rate rapid slow

Nutrient conservation poor good

Overall homeostasis

Entropy high low

Information low high


Bioenergetic model of succession

In early stages of succession, P>R and excess is channeled into growth

and accumulation of biomass.

Increase capacity and complexity of the energy storage compartments

(total biomass of all species and trophic levels) as well as the complexity of

energy transfer pathways.

In late stages of succession, P=R as maintenance costs increase

respiration

Negative feedback maintains steady state, with little or no change in

biomass (network, feedback, cycling).


Logistic growth from early to late

successional stages

Early stage

Late stage


Ecolo

gic

al oriento

r

Complex Systems Cycle: Holling’s 4-stage model

of ecosystem dynamics

Oriento

r

Logistic growth only captures part of the cycle



Ecological

orientor

Connectedness

Exploitation – pioneer stage

Conservation – mature stage

Release –

creative

destruction

Reorganization

Ecosystem succession in the collapse dynamic


All systems show signs of complex growth and

DECAY dynamics


Benefits of collapse

Schumpeter labeled the collapse,

“creative destruction”, since it

allowed for new configurations

and innovation opportunities


Collapse of Complex Societies (Tainter 1988)

Complexification is limited as a problem solving strategy.

“More complex societies are more costly to maintain than

simpler ones… as societies increase in complexity, more

networks are created among individuals, more hierarchical

controls are created to regulate these networks, more

information is processed … increasing

need to support specialists not directly

involved in resource production,

and the like” (Tainter 1988).

Complexity

Ben

efi

t fr

om

Co

mp

lexit

y


Develop-

mental

potential

Connectedness

Developmental opportunities result from the collapse


eco

syste

m i

nd

icato

r

number of connections

Long-term succession of ecosystems: small-scale disturbances

may support the development of the overall system.


Panarchy – scales of change

“Revolt" – when fast, small events overwhelm large, slow ones

“Remember" – when the potential stored in the larger, slow levels influences the reorganization.

– Growth and development toward the initial

dominant system attractor

– Disturbance switches trajectory from one

attractor toward another stable state

– The landscape itself changes

1) incremental change

2) adaptive change

3) transformative change

Three categories of change


Fitness landscape – higher peak, “better” place


General equilibrium model – always working toward the peak

What if some variation on the landscape? 6/25/2013 3rd Viennese Resilience Workshop

Transformative change

New landscape emerges

Incremental change

Adaptive change


How to navigate wilder landscapes?

Social constraints help “smooth” the landscape


Continuation of this

cohesion IS

SUSTAINABILITY

“Structural Coupling is a state in which two

systems shape the environment of the other in

such a way that both depend on the other for

continuing their autopoiesis and increasing their

structural complexity.” On Luhmann p. 19


Cohesion is a property of interaction networks

System function: Autocatalysis

Positive reinforcements that move the system

further from equilibrium

Each process in the cycle facilitates the next

A

C B

+

+

+

Hypothetical three-component autocatalytic cycle


System Function: Self-organization

Sustaining systems possess a configuration of

autocatalytic processes

Allows them to pull toward greater activity and

tighter organization countering the inevitable

entropic drift toward disorder


Centers

“Centers are the fundamental primary entities. A center

is any zone of coherence that occurs in space… may

arise, initially as a minor non-homogeneity in space,

through differentiation. Each center is (recursively)

dependent on other coherent centers for its own

coherence.” Alexander, p. 428


Ambiguous overlap

“Some centers share parts of other centers, or the

wholes overlap each other. The elements are

ambiguously overlaid together. Each one can be seen

as combining with this one, or that one … Each one is

shaped by its neighbor.” Alexander p.398 A

C B

+

+

+

A

C B

+

+

B +

+

A

C B

+

+

+ +

+

+

A

C B

+

+

B +

+

+

+

Conclusions

Ecological systems are obligate open systems

They go through a complex system cycle of growth, development, stability, collapse and reorganization.

Orientors can track the dynamic development phase

Collapse is a normal response of the long-term dynamic

Overlapping, self-reinforcing systems that cohere with other systems through wholeness extending transformations are the basis for win-win mutualisms: Sustainability


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Cohesively Clinging to the Complex Systems Cycle ......2013/06/21 · tighter organization countering the inevitable entropic drift toward disorder 6/25/2013 3rd Viennese Resilience