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COCOMO-SCORM: COCOMO-SCORM: Cost Estimation for SCORM Course Cost Estimation for SCORM Course

DevelopmentDevelopment

Roger Smith & Kelly WardSPARTA Inc. and Anteon Inc.

rsmith@sparta.com and kward@anteon.com

07 March 2006

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What is COCOMO?What is COCOMO?

• The Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO I) was first published in 1981 by Barry Boehm. Its ability to estimate software projects led to its almost universal adoption and continued research that led to the creation of COCOMO II in 1998.

• Since 1981, the COCOMO estimation method has been adapted to serve a number of different types of projects, e.g. – Systems Engineering (COSYSMO)– COTS Acquisition (COCOTS)– Cost, Schedule, Quality Balance (COQUALMO)– Rapid Application Development (CORADMO)– Productivity Improvement (COPROMO)– Lifecycle Costs (COPSEMO)

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What is SCORM?What is SCORM?

• Sharable Content Object Reference Model (SCORM)• A standard for web-based E-learning. It defines how

the individual instruction elements are combined on a technical level and sets conditions for the software needed for using the content. – The standard uses XML and it is based on the results of

work done by AICC, IMS, IEEE, and Ariadne.• SCORM is a suite of technical standards that

enable web-based learning systems to find, import, share, reuse, and export learning content in a standardized way. 

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Project DescriptionProject Description

• Create an interactive project estimation tool for ISD/SCORM content

• Algorithmic foundation for the tool is the COCOMO II algorithm developed for software projects by the research team at the University of Southern California and led by Barry Boehm

• ISD methodology estimated will be the ADDIE model developed at Florida State University and adopted by the U.S. Armed Services

• Resulting algorithm and tools will estimate the person-months required to create a SCORM conformant learning product – Dollar costs can be derived outside of the model by

applying industry standard or specific company labor rates

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Current Estimation MethodsCurrent Estimation Methods

1. Historical2. Bottom-up3. Top-down4. Industry standards

• For example, audience completes the top survey question

• Problems introduced:– Conditions change – i.e. SCORM, new technologies

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Different ApproachDifferent Approach

• Enumerate SCORM products and processes that contribute to the staffing and duration of a project

• Identify mathematic and logical relationships between these items

• Quantify the level of contribution of each item to project cost

• Define a bounded set of conditions under which the algorithm can be relied upon

• Validate the algorithm for various sets of data within the bounded conditions

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Why Change?Why Change?

• Consistent, objective, and reliable estimation tool for SCORM content and projects

• First step in formalizing an estimation method in the ADL community

• Create a tool that other projects can apply, modify, and mature– COCOMO II has been evolving for 25 years. – COCOMO-SCORM tool from this project will be the first

step in the long evolution and improvement of a tool for this community

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COCOMO II Tool ExampleCOCOMO II Tool Example

Quantitative

Qualitative

User’s Perspective

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COCOMO-SCORM DriversCOCOMO-SCORM Drivers(27 Input Variables)(27 Input Variables)

• Size– Source Lines of Code (SLOC)– Design Modification (DM)– Code Modification (CM)– Integration (IM)– Assessment (AA)– Understanding (SU)– Unfamiliarity (UNFAM)

• Scale Drivers– Development Flexibility (FLEX)– Process Maturity (PMAT)– Precedentedness (PREC)– Arch/Risk Resolution (RESL)– Team Cohesion (TEAM)

• Product Effort Multipliers (EM)– Required Reliability (RELY)– Product Complexity (CPLX)– Required Reuse (RUSE)– Documentation (DOCU)

• Platform EM– Platform Volatility (PVOL)– Bandwidth (BAND)

• Personnel EM– Senior Capability (SCAP)– Developer Capability (DCAP)– Personnel Continuity (PCON)– Applications Experience (APEX)– Platform Experience (PLEX)– Development Tools Experience

(DTEX)• Project EM

– Lifecycle Tools (LIFE)– Multisite Development (SITE)– Required Development Schedule

(SCED)

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EM Effect on ProjectEM Effect on Project

15 Effort Multipliers Set to Nominal

Extra High

Nominal

Very Low

Project Cost = A * Course Hours(Person Months) (Constant) (Student Hours)

Course Hours

Project Cost

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Answers Effect Project CostAnswers Effect Project Cost15 Effort Multipliers Other Than Nominal

Course Hours

Project Cost

Nominal Cost

Project Cost = A * EMi * Course Hours(Person Months) (Constant) (Modifiers) (Student Hours)

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Min = Y0.05 ?

Max = X115 ?

Flex From:X times larger to Y times smaller

Range of Cost VariationRange of Cost Variation

Course Hours

Project Cost

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Where: PM = effort in Person MonthsA = calibration constant derived from historical project data Size = Adjust Source Lines of Code E = represents diseconomy of scale (composed of 5 scale factors)EMi = effort multiplier for the ith cost driver. The geometric product results in an overall effort adjustment factor to the nominal effort.

B = calibration constant derived from historical project data SFj = scale factor for the jth cost driver. Provides organization specific adjustments to the size of the project.

COSCOMO Model AlgorithmCOSCOMO Model Algorithm

PM = A*(Size)E * EMii=1

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E = B + .01*SFjj=1

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Join the TeamJoin the Team

• Take the Survey– (Provide Anteon Web Site for Survey)

• Contact us– Roger.Smith@sparta.com or Kward@anteon.com

• Contact Joint ADL CoLab– Bill.Pike@us.army.mil

• Leave Your Business Card• Visit our Demo in the USDLA Pavilion

– (Time and Location for COSCOMO demo)