ERTRAC CO2-Evaluation Group

Report from ERTRAC CO2 Integrated Approach

Contents

• Challenge• Approach• Status• Conclusions to date

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There is a need to significantly reduce transportation CO2 whilst demand is forecast to increase

To reach the overall European CO2 targets for transport, a system approach is needed 3

There is a need to significantly reduce transportation CO2 whilst demand is forecast to increase

To reach the overall European CO2 targets for transport, a system approach is needed 4

For Road transport this means a reduction from 700 MtCO2 to less than 280 MtCO2 p. a.

If we keep today’s technology (2015), road transport CO2 will be ~4x greater than the 2050

requirement due to the increased demand

Better infrastructure

Improved logistic

DecarbonisedEnergy / fuels

System approach

Intelligent traffic management

Public transport and intermodality

Efficient vehicles

Infrastructure for connected

& automated vehicles 5

Flexible and sharedmobility services

Better infrastructure

Improved logistic

DecarbonisedEnergy / fuels

System approach

Intelligent traffic management

Public transport and intermodality

Efficient vehicles

Infrastructure for connected

& automated vehicles 6

Flexible and sharedmobility services

Decarbonisation can only be reached by

a system approach !

KEY QUESTIONS

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1 Which technologies can support the decarbonisation (TTW)?

How big is the specific effect?

What could be the fleet impact on CO2?

What are the research needs?

How much energy and which energy is still needed for road transport: electricity? alternative fuels (Btx, Ptx, H2)?

X (out of ERTRAC scope): Are we able to produce this energy in a renewable or CO2 neutral way?

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Agreements ERTRAC CO2 Evaluation Group

Type A: “better vehicle”

(powertrain, aerodynamics, weight,…)

Type B: “better traffic conditions”

(“green traffic light,…)

Type C: “less traffic”

(better filled trucks,…)

• Only technical measures are addressed• We differentiate 3 main types of measures:

• We calculate the effect based on reduction factors• We specify ranges (optimistic and pessimistic approach)

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Adv ICE5%

PHEV16%

BEV79%

2050 Activity [% km] by Powertrain, Scenario 1

Adv ICE4%

PHEV8%

BEV79%

FCEV9%

2050 Activity [% km] by Powertrain, Scenario 2

FLEET MIX – 2 Scenarios: with & without hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

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Adv ICE5%

PHEV16%

BEV79%

2050 Activity [% km] by Powertrain, Scenario 1

Adv ICE4%

PHEV8%

BEV79%

FCEV9%

2050 Activity [% km] by Powertrain, Scenario 2

FLEET MIX – 2 Scenarios: with & without hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

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General settings:•100% zero emission (TTW) road transport in

urban areas (electric mode or FCHV, passenger cars and commercial vehicles)•3 architectures for HDT: PHEV, Advanced ICE

and/or fuel cell• Scenarios do not currently include dramatic

changes in vehicle usage patterns and/or modal shifts

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• We are able to reduce TTW CO2 by more than -60 % (vs. 1990 baseline)

• More than 50% of road transport energy usage (TTW) is provided by chemical energy carrier (fossil fuel/bio/CNG/H2)

If we put together all technical measures

( type A, B and C and fleet composition

changes)

• CO2-targets are achievable based on combination of all technical measures in the system approach

Even with the assumed highly electrified fleet

scenarios

Even if the chemical energy carrier (fuel) will

be on fossil basis

MAIN OUTCOMES 2050

MAIN OUTCOMES 2050

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. Electrification and alternative fuels

make most sense if the energy

production is renewable or low-

emission based

A system approach is desirable for every energy

carrier.

ANNUAL ENERGY DEMAND

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Electricity 600 - 1100 TWh

Other Fuels650-950 TWh

Scenario 1 Electricity

500-900 TWh

Hydrogen 300-600 TWh

Other Fuels

450-650 TWh

Scenario 2

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CO2-Effect of measures evaluated by the “ERTRAC CO2 Evaluation Group”*

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OEM Stefan SchmerbeckStaffan Lundgren

Volkswagen (cars)Volvo (trucks)

Supplier Christophe Petitjean Valeo

Research Provider Peter PrenningerAndy Ward

AVLRicardo

Academia Zissis Samaras Aristotle University

Cities and Regions Thierry Cosemanns, VUB

Member States Günther Lichtblau, Umweltbundesamt (AT)

Infrastructure Rob Hofman Netherlands

Chair Stephan Neugebauer BMW assisted by Peter Kropf, BMW

CO2 assessment for the fleet Christian ThielJette Krause

JRC

* Each Member of ERTRAC Executive Group nominated specific experts

THANK YOU

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