Co-benefits of Integrated Approach Co-benefits of Integrated Approach to Air Quality Management and Climate to Air Quality Management and Climate

Change MitigationChange MitigationRole of Integrated Assessment Methods in SEARole of Integrated Assessment Methods in SEA

Dr. Vladislav BizekSenior Consultant – Strategic Studies

Technology Center of the Czech Academy of SciencesRozvojová 135, 165 02 Praha 6, Czech Republice-mail: bizek@tc.cz; vladislav.bizek@gmail.com

Background-Introduction

Climate Change – major environmental problem worldwideGHGs: CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases

Air Pollution – serious environmental problem in majority of countries:-Health impact (PM, ozone = VOC + NOX)

-Ecosystem impact (ozone)

-Acidification (SO2, NOX, NH3)

-Eutrophication (NOX , NH3)

Separate Treatment in Environmental Policies

Czech Republic – Air Pollution – example

PM exceedance 2007

Czech Republic – GHGs - example

Per capita 2006 emissions of CO2

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

LucemburskoAustrálie*

USAKanada*

IrskoFinsko

Česká republikaEstonsko

BelgieDánsko

KyprNizozemsko

NěmeckoŘecko

NorskoRakousko

PolskoSpojené království

EU15EU27

SlovinskoEU12

Japonsko*Španělsko

ItálieBulharskoSlovensko

FrancieMaďarsko

PortugalskoMalta

RumunskoŠvédsko

ŠvýcarskoLitva

Lotyšsko

t CO2ekv./obyv.

Background – Physico-chemical Interactions

Ozone – greenhouse gas (warming), direct effect on human health and ecosystems, indirect effect on the uptake of CO2 by vegetation,

Methane – greenhouse gas and precursor of ozone,

Black Carbon – human health effects and positive radiative forcing (warming),

Sulphur dioxide – acidification, precursor of secondary PM, negative radiative forcing (cooling),

Total aerosols – negative radiative forcing (coolling) and health effects, ….

Very complex processes – many uncertainties

GHGs and Air Pollutants - Radiative forcing

Comparison

Background – driving forces

Emissions of GHGs: energy (combustion of fossil fuels), transport (combustion of fossil fuels), agriculture

Emissions of air pollutants : energy (combustion of any fuel), transport (combustion of any fuel), agriculture,

industry (solvent use)

High overlap of driving forces…

Integrated approach is reasonable

Background – Policy response

-win-win solutions: synergies (energy savings, energy efficiency, certain renewables, ….)-win-lose solutions: trade offs (lack of coordination of measures, switch from petrol vehicles to diesel, inpropper combustion of biomass, …)

Integrated assessment of policies is crucial !

Background - Conclusion

-strong and complex interaction among air pollutants and greenhouse gases-high overlap of diriving forces (sources of emissions)-two types of policy response (synergies versus trade-offs)-crucial role of integrated assessment

Integrated assessment - Introduction

Two major initiatives:-Integrated Assessment Models (IIASA under the support of the European Commission)-Integrated Environmental Strategies (IES) Program (US EPA)-Co-benefit/Co-control Approach (China)

Integrated model: EC4MACS / GAINS

EC4MACS – European Consortium for Modelling of Air Pollution and Climate Strategies (http://www.ec4macs.eu)

GAINS – the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies

(http://www.iiasa.ac.at)

EC4MACS – Structure of the Integrated Model

Model GAINS – Description in DPSIR Format

Driving forces (energy, transport, industry, agriculture)

Pressure (emissions – PM, SO2, NOX, VOC, NH3, CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases)

State (dispersion of primary pollutants, creation of secondary pollutants)

Impact (health impact of PM and ozone, acidification, eutrophication)

Response (cost optimization, scenario assessment)

Model GAINS – example 1 – loss in life expectancy due to PM (months) 2000–2020 (optimized scenario)

Model GAINS – Example 2

Macedonia – Emissions 2020

(scenario E+C Package, current legislation)

CO2 CH4 PM10 SO2 NOX

Mt kt kt kt kt

11.47 74.96 14.80 72.07 43.48

Model GAINS – Example 3

Model GAINS – Example 4

Model GAINS – Example 5

Model GAINS - Application

Covers all Europe - Minimal scope – country level

In Southern Europe: Albania, Bosnia and Hercegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Romania, Serbia and Slovenia

Calculates (for pre-defined scenarios):

- Emissions: PM (TSP, PM10 and PM2.5 , SO2, NOX, VOC, NH3, CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases, total GHGs

- Impacts (life expectancy, damage to vegetation, eutrophication, acidification)

- Costs (total for scenario, per pollutants)

Model GAINS – how to use it?

Website: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/index.htm

Free registration possible to become „viewer“, then:-Select country-Select scenario-Calculate (emissions, impacts, costs)

Downloads only available (special rights necessary for uploads)

Integrated Assessment Tools at Local Level

Model CAPS-Clean Air and Climate Protection Software

Enables:

- Calculation of emission inventories and emission projections of air pollutants and GHGs-Assessment of efficiency of measures-Development of strategies and action plans

Information at: http:// www.4cleanair.org

Thanks for your attention !