Upload
buiminh
View
214
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
CNX Coal Resources LP
Analyst and Investor Day – December 2016
0
Cautionary Statements
Various statements in this presentation, including those that express a belief, expectation or intention, may be considered forward-looking statements under federal securities
laws including Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Exchange Act") that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially
from projected results. Accordingly, investors should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as a prediction of actual results. The forward-looking statements
may include projections and estimates concerning the timing and success of specific projects and our future production, revenues, income and capital spending. When we
use the words "believe," "intend," "expect," "may," "should," "anticipate," "could," "estimate," "plan," "predict," "project," or their negatives, or other similar expressions, the
statements which include those words are usually forward-looking statements. When we describe strategy that involves risks or uncertainties, we are making forward-looking
statements. The forward-looking statements in this presentation, if any, speak only as of the date of this presentation; we disclaim any obligation to update these statements.
We have based these forward-looking statements on our current expectations and assumptions about future events. While our management considers these expectations
and assumptions to be reasonable, they are inherently subject to significant business, economic, competitive, regulatory and other risks, contingencies and uncertainties,
most of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond our control. These risks, contingencies and uncertainties relate to, among other matters, changes in coal
prices or the costs of mining or transporting coal; uncertainty in estimating economically recoverable coal reserves and replacement of reserves; our ability to develop our
existing coal reserves and successfully execute our mining plans; changes in general economic conditions, both domestically and globally; competitive conditions within the
coal industry; changes in the consumption patterns of coal-fired power plants and steelmakers and other factors affecting the demand for coal by coal-fired power plants and
steelmakers; the availability and price of coal to the consumer compared to the price of alternative and competing fuels; competition from the same and alternative energy
sources; energy efficiency and technology trends; our ability to successfully implement our business plan; the price and avai lability of debt and equity financing; operating
hazards and other risks incidental to coal mining; major equipment failures and difficulties in obtaining equipment, parts and raw materials; availability, reliability and costs of
transporting coal; adverse or abnormal geologic conditions, which may be unforeseen; natural disasters, weather-related delays, casualty losses and other matters beyond
our control; interest rates; labor availability, relations and other workforce factors; defaults by our sponsor under our operating agreement and employee services agreement;
changes in availability and cost of capital; changes in our tax status; delays in the receipt of, failure to receive or revocation of necessary governmental permits; defects in title
or loss of any leasehold interests with respect to our properties; the effect of existing and future laws and government regulations, including the enforcement and
interpretation of environmental laws thereof; the effect of new or expanded greenhouse gas regulations; the effects of litigation and the other factors discussed in the "Risk
Factors" section of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015, as well as any subsequent report on Form 10-Q that we file with the SEC. This
presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of offers to buy securities of CONSOL Energy Inc. or CNX Coal Resources LP.
This presentation also contains information about the Partnership’s adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow, which are measures that are not derived in accordance with
U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”). Adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow exclude some, but not al l, items that affect net income or net cash,
which are the most directly comparable GAAP measures. We believe that these measures are important to understanding the Partnership’s financial and operational
performance. Adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow should not be considered an alternative to net income, net cash or any other measure of financial performance or
liquidity presented in accordance with GAAP. In addition, our presentation of these non-GAAP measures may vary from the presentations of similarly titled measures of other
companies. Reconciliations of adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow to net income and net cash, the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure, can be found
in our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2016 and in this presentation.
In addition, this presentation also contains information about the Partnership’s cost of coal sold, which is also a measure not derived in accordance with GAAP. Cost of coal
sold excludes some, but not all, items that affect total costs, the most comparable GAAP measure. We believe that these measures are important to understanding the
Partnership’s financial and operational performance. Cost of coal sold should not be considered an alternative to total costs or any other measure of financial or operational
performance in accordance with GAAP, and our presentation of this non-GAAP may vary from the presentations of similarly titled measures of other companies.
Reconciliations of cost of coal sold to total costs, the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure, can be found in our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period
ended September 30, 2016 and in this presentation.
Growth-oriented master limited partnership formed by CONSOL Energy Inc. (NYSE:CNX) (market capitalization: $4.8
billion(1)) in 2015 to manage and further develop all of its active thermal coal operations in Pennsylvania.
Assets include a 25% undivided interest in, and operational control over, CONSOL Energy’s Pennsylvania mining
complex (PAMC)
First drop down of 5% interest concluded in September 2016
Growth strategy is focused on acquiring the remaining 75% interest in the PAMC
Initial Public Offering – June 2015 at $15/unit
Current market capitalization: $524 million(1)
Net debt outstanding: $202 million as of September 30, 2016
Current ownership structure of limited partner units
Sponsor owns 12.7 million LP units and 4.0 million Class A preferred convertible units (60.1% limited partner
equivalent interest)
5.0 million private placement LP units (18.1% interest) owned by Greenlight Capital
5.6 million LP units (20.1% interest) held by public holders
CNX Coal Resources LP – Overview
(1) Priced as of COB November 30, 2016. For CNXC, assumes the conversion of preferred units to common units
2
Completed the first post-IPO drop-down representing an expected 25% growth in
adjusted EBITDA
Offering Timeline
CNXC Investment Proposition
3
Focus on Safety,
Compliance and
Continuous Improvement
Operate some of the industry's safest underground mines; 42% lower Mine Safety and Health Administration (“MSHA”)
incident rate vs. national average
Underground training academy dedicated to training miners and improving their safety performance and regulatory
compliance
Cash Flows Supported by
Multi-Year Contracts
Seek to minimize direct commodity exposure through multi-year sales contracts; contracted position at 100%, 94% and 60%
for 2016, 2017 and 2018 expected sales volumes
Well-established credit-worthy customer base comprised primarily of power producing companies in the eastern U.S. willing
to commit to multi-year contracts
Strong Sponsor
Access to significant pool of management talent, deep industry knowledge and strong commercial relationships
Economically incentivized to grow CNXC through ownership of IDRs and LP units as well as 75% retained interest in the PA
mining complex
Experienced Management
Team
Significant expertise owning, developing and managing complex coal mining operations
Proven track record of successfully building coal assets in a reliable and cost-effective manner
Quality Reserve Base with
Substantial Capital
Investment
Extensive high-quality contiguous reserves of high-Btu bituminous coal in Pittsburgh No. 8 Coal Seam are ideal for high
productivity, low-cost longwall operations
Advantageous coal quality with relatively higher heat content, lower sulfur content and lower chlorine content compared to
Illinois Basin coals.
Strategically Located
Operations with Access to
Key Infrastructure
Logistics infrastructure and proximity to coal-fired power plants allow operational and marketing flexibility
Significant transportation cost advantage compared to many of our competitors.
Direct access to domestic customers and Baltimore Marine Terminal through Norfolk Southern and CSX rail lines
Low-cost Highly Productive
Operations
Maintained strong YTD 2016 cash margins compared to the peer group while maintaining sales volume even as peers
reduced production by 14-26%
Recent capital investment has optimized our mining operations and logistics infrastructure to maintain low operating costs
Advanced Distribution
with Cutting Edge Loadout
Technology
Dual-batch facility that operates 24/7 and loads up to 9,000 tons of coal per hour and ten unit trains per day
Strong relationship with Norfolk Southern and CSX rail lines - investing significant capex to increase rail takeaway
Solid distribution yield supported by world class asset base
Operations
4
Mine
Total
Recoverable
Reserves
(tons)
Average
AR Gross
Heat
Content
(Btu/lb)
Average
AR Sulfur
Content
Annual
Production
Capacity
(tons)
Production
(tons)
Bailey(1) 271.7 12,940 2.64% 11.5 10.2
Enlow Fork(1) 316.2 12,940 2.19% 11.5 9.0
Harvey(1) 203.5 13,070 2.25% 5.5 3.6
Total 791.4 12,970 2.36% 28.5 22.8
Illinois Basin(2) 11,355 2.95%
Other NAPP(2) 12,334 3.23%
Other Coal
MLPs(2,3) 11,815 2.81%
Overview of Pennsylvania Mining Complex
5
Pennsylvania mining complex consists of three like-new underground
mines and related infrastructure with high-Btu bituminous coal (791.4
million tons proven and probable(1))
PA mining complex – 791.4 million tons reserves / 28.5 million tons
annual capacity(1)
Train loadout facility (up to 9,000 tons per hour) with dual rail access
with Norfolk Southern and CSX
High-Btu bituminous thermal coal is primarily sold to utility companies in
the eastern United States: ~13,000 Btus per pound average gross heat
content and 2.4% average sulfur content over the life of the reserves
Five longwalls and 15-17 continuous mining sections
Access to seaborne markets through CONSOL-owned Baltimore Marine
Terminal for exporting thermal and metallurgical coal
Over $2.0 billion invested in Harvey Mine, new slopes, overland
conveyor belts, equipment, and plant upgrades since 2008
(1) For the period ending and as of December 31, 2015.
(2) Source: EIA. Represents average power plant deliveries for the twelve months ending February 29, 2016.
(3) Includes Northern Appalachian and Illinois Basin production from ARLP, FELP, RHNO, and WMLP.
Note: Data shown on a 100% basis for the PA Mining Complex. CNXC owns a 25% interest in the complex.
Baltimore
Terminal
PA Mining
Complex
Active Complex
Port/Dock
2015 PA Mining
Complex Customers
We couldn't fine the original
artwork 655159_Graphic.ai
NY0086JT so we had to
ungroup it and make the
edits.
6
Operational Initiatives Driving Cost Improvement
Structurally repositioned mines to benefit as demand and pricing recovers
Operational initiatives such as improving productivity, vendor concessions, reduced staffing levels, refocused
incentive plans, and realignment of employee benefits helped achieve ~19% improvement in cost of coal sold
since 2Q15 (quarter prior to the IPO)
Spot market/export sales improved mine consistency and provided economies of scale during the volatile 1H16
Improvement in productivity, as measured by tons per employee-hour, is one of the key drivers of significant cost
improvements
44.15
40.26 39.70
33.16 34.46 35.79
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
Co
st o
f co
al s
old
($
/to
n)
~19% Improvement
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
1Q1
2
2Q1
2
3Q1
2
4Q1
2
1Q1
3
2Q1
3
3Q1
3
4Q1
3
1Q1
4
2Q1
4
3Q1
4
4Q1
4
1Q1
5
2Q1
5
3Q1
5
4Q1
5
1Q1
6
2Q1
6
3Q1
6
Pro
du
ctiv
ity
(to
ns/
emp
loye
e-h
ou
r)Quarterly productivity
TTM Average Productivity
Marketing
7
Contracted position improves sales volume visibility and reduces pricing volatility
Well-established, credit-worthy customer base comprised primarily of utility companies in the eastern United States
willing to commit to multi-year contracts
Maintaining exposure to further recovery in coal prices in 2017 through (a) 6% unsold position, (b) 5-10%
unpriced/collared position and (c) 15-20% linked to power prices (netback contracts)
For 2018, approximately 40% of our coal is unsold and additional 15-20% is unpriced/collared
Contracted Volume(1)
Solid Contracted Position With Exposure to
Improving Coal Markets
8
Major Customers Include:
Secured multi-year commitments with key power plants in the upper Midwest and Southeast
markets, which historically have been thought of as the domain of other coal basins
(1) Contracted percentages based on the projected sales volume for 2016 and at 6.5 million ton annual run rate thereafter. Some of our contracts contain fixed prices with preestablished price
adjustments based on (i) variances in the quality characteristics of coal delivered to the customer beyond threshold quality characteristics specified in the applicable sales contract, (ii) the actual
calorific value of coal delivered to the customer, and/or (iii) fluctuations in the power market.
100% 94%
60%
2016E 2017E 2018E
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
Jan
-15
Fe
b-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Ap
r-15
Ma
y-1
5
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
De
c-1
5
Jan
-16
Fe
b-1
6
Ma
r-1
6
Ap
r-16
Ma
y-1
6
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Se
p-1
6
Ave
rag
e C
ap
ac
ity F
ac
tor
(we
igh
ted
by c
ap
ac
ity)
Month-Year
Top 15 PAMC Customer Plants* Other NAPP-Served Plants**
Customer Capacity Factors
Our Top 15 customer plants (~84% of our domestic shipments) have on average
dispatched at 5 percentage points higher capacity factor than other NAPP-served plants
9
*Based on 2016 YTD tons shipped; top 15 customer plants accounted for 84% of PAMC domestic power plant shipments. **Includes all other currently operating plants that took delivery of NAPP
coal in January-September 2016. Source: EIA, Velocity, CNXC internal analysis.
Anomalously Warm Winter
Low Natural Gas Prices
Imbalanced Coal Inventories
Strong Coal Burn
Summer 2016
Coal Prices vs. Gas Prices
Strong summer burn helped to accelerate the upward correction in forward domestic
coal prices toward expected market equilibrium prices. We expect additional upside if
gas prices continue to strengthen above $3/mmBtu 10
Source: Velocity, NYMEX ClearPort, Coaldesk
$1.90
$2.40
$2.90
$3.40
$3.90
$4.40
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
$65
$70Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Oct-
15
Fe
b-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Au
g-1
6
De
c-1
6
Fo
rward
Gas P
rice (
$/m
mB
tu)
Fo
rward
Co
al P
rice (
$/t
on
)
2017 NAPP 12,900 Btu / 3.8 lb SO2
2018 NAPP 12,900 Btu / 3.8 lb SO2
2017 NYMEX Gas
2018 NYMEX Gas
Gas-implied equilibrium price
Strongburn /
inventorydrawdown
Inventoryimbalance
22%
26%
30%
34%
38%
42%
46%
< $2.00 $2.00-$2.50 $2.50-$3.00 $3.00-$3.50 $3.50-$4.00 $4.00-$4.50 > $4.50
Co
al
Sh
are
of
Mo
nth
ly G
en
era
tio
n (
%)
Monthly Average Natural Gas Price ($/mmBtu, Henry Hub Spot)
Range
Average
Effect of Gas Price on Coal Generation
Improving natural gas prices should help improve coal generation and coal prices
A 1% increase in coal’s share of generation equates to a 22-23 million ton / year increase in U.S. electric power
sector coal demand
Right-sizing of coal supply under current market conditions will help set the stage for coal prices to rebound with
uptick in gas prices
11
Coal Share of U.S. Generation vs. Natural Gas Price Ranges (January 2013 – September 2016)
Source: EIA
Strong committed sales base for 2017 allows us to be more selective in placing remaining tons in opportunities that
maximize FOB mine realizations
Exports, in spite of showing significant volatility, has provided the most upside recently
Historically, exports (steam and crossover met) averaged approximately 20% of our annual sales volume
2018 sales position lends itself to meaningful participation in export markets
Historic and Projected Exports
Significant Opportunities in Improving Export Markets
12
Coal Price Trends in Key Markets
The current sales book provides significant export optionality in 2018. We continue to
strive to identify and capture the best opportunities to maximize FOB mine realizations
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E
% o
f T
ota
l Sa
les
Historic Projected
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jul-
15
Sep
-15
No
v-15
Feb
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Sep
-16
No
v-16
Ch
ange
in P
rice
fro
m J
uly
1, 2
01
5
NAPP Low-Sulfur Rail Coal (CY 2017)
API 2 Coal - Europe (CY 2017)
Global Coking Coal Benchmark (Prompt Quarter)
Henry Hub Gas (CY 2017)+12%
-2%
0%
+115%
Recent Market Signals
13 Source: EIA, Velocity, CNXC internal analysis.
We recently secured 340k tons of crossover high-vol metallurgical sales for 2017 (on a 25% PAMC
basis), and are actively pursuing additional opportunities as metallurgical prices continue to rally
Export thermal markets have improved in both Europe and India, with the API2 and API4 markers both
up ~20% between June 30 and November 30
MSHA data indicate continued supply-side discipline in the U.S., with NAPP production during Q1-Q3
2016 down 16% vs. the same period last year
U.S. power plant coal stockpiles stood at 158 mm tons at the end of September, down significantly
from 194 mm tons at the end of April, and about 4 mm tons below year-ago (September 2015) levels
Forward gas prices have continued to show strength, with the Henry Hub future for CY 2017 trading at
an average value of $3.13/mmBtu during June-November
Gas basis differentials have shrunk significantly in the Marcellus region more recently. We expect that
this will help contribute to increased power prices and additional coal burn
CNXC’s portfolio continues to improve as we take advantage of strengthening
fundamentals in the domestic and export markets for thermal and metallurgical coal
Financial
14
CNXC Ownership Structure
15
CNXC owns a 25% undivided interest in
and operational control over CONSOL
Energy’s Pennsylvania mining complex
CONSOL Energy retains a 75% undivided
interest in the Pennsylvania mining
complex and owns 100% of CNXC’s
general partner, as well as the incentive
distribution rights
Economically incentivized to grow
CNXC
CONSOL Energy granted CNXC a right of
first offer to acquire the remaining 75%
undivided interest
Certain other Sponsor ROFO assets
Majority of units owned by our Sponsor are
subordinated
CNXC – 25% Undivided Interest in Pennsylvania Mining
Complex (Bailey, Enlow Fork and Harvey mines)
Sponsor is strategically aligned with CNXC and incentivized to support growth and
enhance the value of the MLP
CONSOL Energy Inc. (“CONSOL Energy”)
NYSE: CNX 1,050,000 Common Units
11,611,067 Subordinated Units 3,956,496 Class A Preferred Convertible Units
CNX Coal Resources GP LLC (“our general partner”)
General Partner Interest Incentive Distribution Rights
1.7% general partner interest
CNX Coal Resources LP (the “Partnership”)
NYSE: CNXC
60.1% limited partner interest
75% undivided ownership interest
25% undivided ownership interest and management and control rights
100% ownership interest
Pennsylvania mining complex
CNX Coal Resources Operating LLC
CNX Thermal Coal Company LLC
100% ownership interest
100% ownership interest
Public and Private Placement 10,568,456
Common Units 5,561,067
38.2% limited partner interest
Treatment of common and subordinated units during the subordination period:
Subordination period(2) generally extends until distributions of available cash from operating surplus have equaled or
exceeded $2.05/unit annualized for at least three years for all unitholders and GP interest
Subordinated units will be converted to common units at the completion of subordination period
Class A convertible preferred units have priority over other unit classes
Common Unit Distribution Support Mechanism
The current ownership structure is beneficial to common unitholders given the priority
of distributions over subordinated units owned by CONSOL Energy (1) MQD = Minimum Quarterly Distribution of $0.5125/unit or $2.05/unit annualized
(2) For the full definition of subordination period, please refer to our registration statement filed on form S-1
16
Common Units Subordinated Units
Ownership Primarily public CONSOL Energy Inc
Units outstanding ~11.6 million ~11.6 million
MQD(1) $0.5125 per unit $0.5125 per unit
Aggregate annualized MQD ~$23.8 million ~$23.8 million
Priority of distribution Yes No
Accrue arrearage if short paid (below MQD) Yes No
Distribution declared for 3Q16 $0.5125 per unit $0.5125 per unit
Guidance and Outlook – Organic Growth in 2017
17
Reaffirming 2016 guidance and outlook
2017 guidance compared to 2016 guidance at the midpoint:
─ coal sales to grow 8%
─ adjusted EBITDA to grow 28%
─ average revenue per ton to improve 5-10%
─ cost of coal sales per ton expected to remain flat to up low single digit
2018 sales volume expected to be in the 6.25-6.75 million ton range
Sold position improves to 94% in 2017 and 60% in 2018 at the midpoint of the guidance range
─ Opportunities to capture further upside through unpriced/collared and netback contracts
After reducing and deferring some capital spending in 2016, we expect capex to normalize in the
approximately $5 per ton range for 2017 and beyond
Expected future drop-downs not included in current guidance and should provide further accretion
opportunities
2017 should provide organic volume and margin growth based on current market view
2017 Guidance Low High
Coal sales million tons 6.25 6.75
Adjusted EBITDA $ million $90 $110
Maintenance capital
expenditures$ million $30 $36
Note: CNX Coal Resources LP is unable to provide a reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA guidance to net income, the most comparable financial measure calculated in accordance with GAAP, due to the
unknown effect, timing and potential significance of certain income statement items.
6.4x
5.3x 6.0x
7.3x 7.7x
8.1x
.0x
2.0x
4.0x
6.0x
8.0x
10.0x
WLB CLD ARLP HNRG FELP
2.7x
1.1x
3.0x
4.5x
5.9x
6.7x
.0x
1.0x
2.0x
3.0x
4.0x
5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
ARLP HNRG CLD WLB FELP
94%
79%
71% 77% 78%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
ARLP ARCH CLD HNRG
Benchmarking vs. Peers
18
(1) For peers, percentage is based on 2016 total sales volume and 2017 contracted position, where 2017 sales guidance not available. (source: respective company documents and CNXC analysis)
(2) EBITDA, Net debt and EV based on company data or FactSet data as of November 30, 2016. EBITDA based on mean of select Wall Street Research when guidance not available. ARLP on GP-adjusted
basis. CNXC 2017 EBITDA excludes the benefit of any potential drop down included in analyst estimates.
(3) TTM EBITDA based on FactSet data as of November 30, 2016.
(4) Current yield calculation based on COB November 30, 2016.
Solid 2017 Contracted Position(1) Debt/TTM EBITDA(3)
EV/2017E EBITDA(2)
Current Yield(3)
10.5%
8.3%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
FELP ARLP
Current Yield (%)(4)
$2.05 $0.53
$1.76 $0.96 $0.00
$18.95
$6.10
$23.70
$12.36
$6.57
10.8%
8.7%
7.4% 7.8%
0.0% 0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
WMLP ARLP AMLP FELP
Annualized Distribution Unit Price Yield
Roadmap to Unitholder Returns
19
Expand Coal Margins
Improve Coverage Ratio
Increase 2018-20 Contracted
Position
Cash Flow Growth
Improved Cost of Capital
Pursue Accretive Drop-downs/
Acquisitions
Optimize Cost Structure
Broaden Institutional Appeal
Appendix
20
Significant Focus on Safety, Compliance and
Continuous Improvement
21
Continued focus on core values of safety, compliance and
continuous improvement
Operate some of the industry’s safest underground mines
MSHA incident rate ~42% lower than national
average rate(1)
MSHA significant and substantial citation rate ~16%
lower than the industry average rate(2)
Promotes greater reliability in operations, lower operating
costs and long-term customer relationships
Strong Safety Record (PA mining
complex)
(1) Based on incident rates for 2013- September 2016 period. Source: MSHA
(2) For the Nov 1, 2015-October 31, 2016 period ; National industry rate for significant & substantial citations & orders per 100 inspection hours. Source: MSHA
CONSOL constructed the first underground training
academy in the United States dedicated to training
miners and improving their safety performance and
regulatory compliance
We continue to focus on our core values of safety, compliance and continuous
improvement
Underground Training Academy
Experienced staff provide technical services to assist
customers in the new, expanded, and continued use
of our coal
Technical Services
4.89
2.09
2.82
1.75
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
Incident Rate S&S Citation Rate
Industry Average PA Operations
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
PA
Min
ing C
om
ple
x (
5)
Marion C
ounty
(1)
Monongalia
County
(1)
Federa
l (1
)
Em
era
ld (
1)
Harr
ison C
ounty
(1)
Mounta
in V
iew
(1)
Leer
(1)
Mars
hall
County
(2)
Cum
berland (
1)
Ohio
County
(1)
Tunnel R
idge (
1)
Centu
ry (
1)
Pow
hata
n (
1)
Su
lfu
r (%
as r
eceiv
ed
)
Pro
du
cti
on
(m
illi
on
to
ns)
2015 Production - PA Mining Complex 2015 Production - Other Longwalls 2015 Sulfur
Not All NAPP Longwalls Are Created Equal
22 Source: EIA 923, MSHA; Number of longwalls indicated in parentheses.
PA Mining Complex is uniquely positioned among NAPP longwall producers to provide
a sustained supply of high-quality coal to rail-served power plants in the eastern U.S.
Serve River Markets
Primarily
Met Coal
Producer
Mine Mouth
Operations
Near End of
Reserve Life
Higher
Sulfur
Closed
in 2015
Announced
Closing in
Dec-16
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Re
tire
d C
ap
ac
ity (
MW
)
All Coal Types
Eastern Bituminous(Pri Fuel)
The Carbon Pollution Standard for new plants, 111(b), will
severely hinder the construction of new coal-fired power
plants for 10 or more years
The Clean Power Plan, 111(d), was finalized by EPA in
August 2015, but faces an uncertain future
Designed to reduce GHG emissions from existing
plants beginning in 2022
The Supreme Court stayed implementation of the
Clean Power Plan on February 9, 2016, pending
judicial review
Under any scenario, the most efficient, cleanest coal plants
are positioned to survive; these are the ones we are targeting
Impact of Power Plant Pollution Control Regulations
Traditional Pollutants
Greenhouse Gases (i.e., CO2)
23
Our Strategy: Focus domestic steam sales on clean, modern and efficient plants in our
core market area. Push into former CAPP market, and take advantage of crossover and
export opportunities
MATS compliance deadlines occurred in April 2015 (primary)
and April 2016 (one-year extension)
Additional retirements in the near-term driven primarily by low
natural gas prices and other environmental regulations (e.g.,
Regional Haze Rule, Coal Combustion Residuals Rule,
Effluent Limitation Guidelines, state rules)
Remaining fleet will be clean, modern and efficient, with
capacity to increase coal burn relative to 2015
U.S. Coal Unit Retirements and Fuel Conversions
Source: CNXC internal analysis.
2011-2016:
55 GW
64% Eastern Bit
2017-2020:
19 GW
49% Eastern Bit
Q&A
24