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Transformation-Ready: The Strategic Application ofInformation and Communication Technologies toClimate Change Adaptation in Africa

(eTransform Africa)

Ben AkohJune 26-28, 2011


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Outline

Project Outlay

Global Scan of ICTs and Climate Change Adaptation

Landscape Analysis and Climate Change Adaptation in Africa Some Early Research Findings in Senegal, Uganda and Malawi

Methodology

Some preliminary findings The Framework

Global Scan of ICTs and Climate Change Adaptation

Landscape Analysis and Climate Change Adaptation in Africa

Country Case Studies


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Part 1: Global Scan of ICTs and Climate ChangeAdaptation

The Changing Climate

Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity A taxonomy for Adaptation to Climate Change

Relationship between ICTS and Climate Change

ICTs and Adaptation

ICT tools relevant/Applicable to Climate ChangeAdaptation

A Useful framework for examining ICTs and

Climate Change Adaptation


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Part 2: Landscape Analysis and Climate ChangeAdaptation in Africa

Climate Change in Africa

Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa The African ICT Environment

ICTs in Senegal, Uganda and Malawi

Implications for Considering ICTs andClimate Change Adaptation


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Part 3: Some Early Research Findings in Senegal,Uganda and Malawi

Senegal: AfricaAdaptKnowledge

Management and Information Sharing forClimate Change Adaptation

Uganda: ICTs and Adaptation to Climate

Change in Crop Production Malawi: ICTs, Climate Change and Water

Management


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Methodology

Data sources:

The Banksown knowledge of ICTs and adaptation (African Development

Bank; InfoDev).

IISDs current work in the area of adaptation, including: an on-going reviewof current and planned adaptation action in Africa, Asia-Pacific and LatinAmerica and the Caribbean.

Concentrated literature review on ICTs and adaptation.

Consultations with selected international organizations active in adaptation

(IDS; DFID; IDRC; others): between 10 and 20 short email exchanges andphone/Skype interviews

Consultations with IISD partners on the ground in Africa: up to 20 shortemail exchanges and phone/Skype interviews.

A crowd sourcing/online survey of adaptation practitioners on global,

continental and national level adaptation action


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Methodology

National Level Intervention

Senegal

Interviews with actors, policy makers, government officials, localNGOs, International Organizations in the field of CCA (UNDP,AfricaAdapt, UNECA)

Building on IISDs existing and ongoing inquiry and stocktaking

of web-based knowledge platforms for the integration of climate

change adaptation into development policy-making and planning


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Methodology

National Level Intervention

Uganda

Interviews with actors, policy makers, government officials, localNGOs, International Organizations in the field of CCA (UNDP)

Build on IISDs work with UNDP in prioritizing climate riskmanagement options for sustainable crop production in ruraldistricts in Uganda

Participatory Scenarios Process involving all actors Malawi

Interviews with actors, policy makers, government officials, localNGOs, International Organizations in the field of CCA (DFID,Universities)

Focus group event with key experts in the field


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A few but important emergingpoints and issues

A framework for examining ICTs andClimate Change Adaptation

The broad range of ICTs in the Climate

Change Adaptation Field.

The absence of ICTs in most NAPAs.


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The Framework Emerged from a Juxtaposing of

1. A taxonomy for Adaptation to Climate Change (IPCC)

Addressing the drivers of Vulnerability

Building Adaptive Capacity of local and regional systems Reducing and managing risks related to Climate Variability and

Change

Confronting climate change

2. A review of ICT Applications with Relevance to Climate Change

Adaptation

Large to small scale ICT implementations

Early warning systems/Weather management/MET

Smart Systems/Sensor Networks

Geographic Information/Global Positioning systems Knowled e Mana ement and Information Sharin


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A useful Framework for examining ICTs and CCA


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A few but important emerging points and issues

A framework for examining ICTs and Climate ChangeAdaptation

The broad range of ICTs in the Climate Change AdaptationField.

The absence of ICTs in most NAPAs.

These findings indicate a disconnect between policy and

practice and that the implementation of technology toaddress CCA must take on a more proactive approachthan what presently exists.


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The changing climate

Rising temperatures: 11 of 12 warmest in last 12 years since recordkeeping began in 1850

Rising sea levels: 17cm total global rise

Melting ice caps: 2.7 percent shrinkage annually in arctic sea since1978.

Increased precipitation: More frequent floods and cyclones in the

past 30 years. Increased precipitations from 19002005.



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ICTs contributions: Effects of ICTs on CC

Contributions of between 2 to 2.5% of total carbon emissions

Increasing in a compounded annual growth rate of approx.. 6%, thefastest of any industrial sector

Proportions of GHG emissions estimates will rise from 17% (0.53gigatones of Co2 in 2002) to 27% (1.43 gigatones in 2020)GeSI.

Growth as a result of increased access to ICTs will have more

(emissions based) impacts on the developing world.



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Potential future s global emission scenarios (Nakicenovic et al, 2000)

A1: Future world of rapid economic growth, plateaued and declining globalpopulation, and introduction of new and more efficient technologies.

Emphasis on fossil-fuels, all energy sources (renewables and non-renewables).

A2: Emergence of a heterogeneous world, fragmented economic growth andtechnological changes, continuously increasing global populations.

B1: Same as A1 but with rapid changes in econmic structure towards serviceand information economy, introduction of clean and efficient resource-efficient technologies, emphasis on global solutions for economic, social andenvironmental sustainability.

B2: Emphasis on local solutions to economic, social and environmentalsustainability. Continuously increasing population at a rate lower than A2,more diverse technological changes than in B1 and A1.



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Potential significant climatic changes with ecological, economic andsocial impact to take place during the century with various degrees ofprobability (IPCC):

Virtually certain (over 99% probability): Increase yields in colderenvironments; relying on snow melts; reduced energy demand forheating, increased demand for cooling, declining air quality in cities.

Very likely (over 90% probability): Reduced yield in warmer regions,increased danger of wildfire, increased heat related mortality,

reduction in quality of life.

Likely (over 66% probability): Damage to crops and soil erosions,inability to cultivate land due to waterlogging, disruptions ofsettlements due to flooding, intense tropical cyclones,



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Severity of impacts will depend on

effectiveness of GHGs mitigations efforts at global level

Overall development of present and future pathways

Including vulnerability to stresses and availability of capacities toadapt

Effectiveness of specific adaptation actions focusing on reducingimpacts

Recent cost estimates suggests that that even with considerablemitigation efforts at the global level the cost between 2010 and 2050 ofadapting to an approximately 2oC warmer world by 2050 is in the range of $70

billion to $100 billion a year (World Bank). Equivalent to annual foreign

aid from developed to developing countries.



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Vulnerability, Adaptive Capacity (Some facts)

Climate change will impact everyone

Those in greater poverty are at greater risks from climate change impacts, and at a

greater risks of being adversely affected at an earlier stage Poverty and development status are crucial determinants of access to entitlements and

resources and directly shapes vulnerability to risks (Eriksen and OBrien, 2009)

Definitions

Vulnerability to climate change: the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or

unable to cope with, the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability

and extremes.

Adaptation to climate change: [an] adjustment in natural or human systems in responseto actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits

beneficial opportunities

Adaptive capacity depends on access to resources that could help in responding to

threats and exposures.

Resilience: A systems ability to bounce back to a reference state after a disturbance



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Adaptation to Climate Change involves

A broad range of measures directed to a range of climatic stimuli

Adaptation planning shares common features with risk management

It is a collaborative process involving all stakeholders

It is no substitute for mitigation of climate change

Should be addressed as a proactive measure

Intimately connected with sustainable development and to resilience

Requires an integrated approach and a long term continual processinvolving all sectors of society



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In developing responses to climate change we distinguish between:

Addressing the drivers of vulnerability by reducing major underlyingcauses of vulnerability

Building adaptive capacity of local and regional systems andcommunities

Reducing and managing risks related to climate variability and climatechange, e.g. by increasing awareness and knowledge of stakeholders

Confronting climate change by taking actions which respondexclusively to impacts known to be cause by climate change.

This responses led to the emergence of the taxonomy or frameworkfor examining climate change adaption and ICTs presented earlier.



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Relationships between ICTs and Climate Change

Direct or first order effectsthe directs impacts of ICTs to climatechangeeg. Carbon emissions and use and disposal of ICT

equipment and services

Indirect or second order effectsthe indirect impacts of ICTs thatresult from other industrial sectors or from the behaviours of end-users.

Rebound effectsthe elimination of gains resulting from apparentreduction in emissions, e.g. increased power consumption resultingfrom lower energy prices obtained through greater energy efficiency

Societal or third order effectsresulting from large scale social andeconomic behaviour resulting from widespread and increased use ofICTs.



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Facts about ICTs and Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa

Fairly low references to ICTs are mentioned in National AdaptationProgramme of Actions (NAPAs) of most countries

In cases where ICTs are mentioned, they focus on:

Creating climate change projections and databases of climaticdata

Developing and revising early warning systems

Creating monitoring systems for water quality, health anddiseases

Developing capacity-building and awareness raising applicationsincluding information-sharing of climate date.



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Part 2: Landscape Analysis and Climate ChangeAdaptation in Africa

Implementations of regional projects withICT components in Africa are at the

following levels:

National

Regional

Continental


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Part 2: Landscape Analysis and Climate ChangeAdaptation in Africa: NationalCountry Specific role in the NAPAs Details on activities with relevance to ICT Areas of focus

Benin Research and transfer of

technology including ICTs

In the area of disaster preparedness; pest and disease

forecast and control.

Agriculture

and Food

Security

BurkinaFaso

Security of agriculturalproduction through the use

of appropriate technology

packages in the South West

and East

Strengthening of adaptive capacity and well-being ofpeople through the recovery of degraded land and

sustainable productive, diversified, and profitable

agriculture by using Capacity building,

Knowledge sharing (Technology transfer)

Agricultureand Food

security

Ghana Information Support System

for the Sustainable

Management of the Coastal

Zone Of Ghana

Provide the information required in support of the

rationale management of the coastal zone including

collecting more accurate data, creating maps

Coastal

Management

Guinea Early warning systems Development of an early warning system for securing

agricultural productivity by modelling, information

generation

Early warning

systems


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Part 2: Landscape Analysis and Climate ChangeAdaptation in Africa : NationalMali NAPA includes two specific

projects that are relevant for

ICT on : experimental ponds

and health information

systems

Study of climate change impacts on small experimental

ponds : to contribute to food sufficiency and resources

protection based on hydrologic information on climate

change impacts

Information systems on the climate-related illnesses:Develop an information system to understand and

monitor climate related illnesses

Agriculture/

Water

resources

Health

Namibia NAPA stresses the

importance of integrating

information on climate

change in the existing

policies and frameworks and

for ICT disaster

preparedness and

agriculture include relevant

priorities

Disaster risks management: including disaster risk

preparedness, seasonal forecasting and flood

forecasting, capacity building in spatial planning, and

disaster insurance for the poor.

Agriculture: Improve information dissemination around

the effects of climate change, as well as improved

forecasting and the establishment of Early Warning

Systems, to encourage adaptation in the farming sector;

Agriculture

Disaster

preparedness


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Part 2: Landscape Analysis and Climate ChangeAdaptation in Africa : National

Niger In the NAPA for the ICT is

specifically that support is

needed to increase

capacities of rural producers

to agro meteorological

information and integration

of climatic information into

the health sector on major

climate sensitive diseases

Encourage farmers to use agro-meteorological

information in their production activities, before making

important decisions, in order to avoid sowing again and

to increase yields.

Integrated Food-Security Information System to be also

developed to monitor food shortages and malnutrition

Provide the health sector with relevant information that

would be integrated into the various aspects of planning

and operation management, and, to a larger extent, into

the permanent health watch system especially on

prevention and fight against malaria, meningitis

Agriculture,

Health

Capacity

building

Rwanda Six immediate nationaladaptation projects were

prioritized in the NAPA from

which one has an ICT

component

Set up information systems of hydro agrometeorological early warning system and rapid

intervention: This projects objective is to enhance

hydro-agro-meteorological early warning systems and

rapid interventions, and decrease the exposure of the

population and sectors at risk of extreme events;

Early warning,disaster

preparedness

and capacity

building


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Part 2: Landscape Analysis and Climate ChangeAdaptation in Africa : NationalTogo NAPA specifically stressed

the importance of ICTs for

agriculture by providing

agro-meteorological

information and for early

warning systems on floods

Adaptation of the agricultural production systems in

three regions through the development of techniques

that integrate climate change and improve agro-

meteorological information to encourage farmers to

take into account meteorological conditions in their

daily activities to increase food security.

Development of an early warning system for real time

information on floods in the Maritime and Savanes

regions to reinforce capacities of the meteorological

national service and rural radio stations in order toestablish meteorological forecasting to ensure an

adequate response and to minimize risks.

Agriculture;

Food security

Early warning

system


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Part 2: Landscape Analysis and Climate ChangeAdaptation in Africa : RegionalProject/Activity Details of Activities with relevance to climate change

adaptation

Area of

Focus

Region

Advancing

Capacity

to SupportClimate

Change

Adaptation:

Five Pilot

Projects

This project seeks to reduce the vulnerability of poor

populations in sub Saharan Africa to climate change

by mobilizing scientists to inform political decision-making. It will do so by means of five pilot projects in

rural and urban populations. The project will

emphasize the generation, organization and

communication of information on the risks resulting

from climate change, climate variability and extreme

climatic events, as well as preparation for their

effects on food security (Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya)

and water supply (South Africa, Burkina Faso)1

Implementing agency: UNEP

Funders: IDRC and DFID

Mapping

Water

Agriculture(food)

Multination

al

(BurkinaFaso,

Cameroon,

Ethiopia,

Kenya,

South

Africa)


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Part 2: Landscape Analysis and Climate ChangeAdaptation in Africa : RegionalCapacity-

building and

technical

assistance for

adaptation and

use of

household

food and

nutrition

security

monitoring

tools

The Nutrition Division is providing training and

technical assistance for the adaptation, use, analysis

and interpretation of simple household food and

nutrition security monitoring tools. The dimensions of

household access to food and food consumption are

insufficiently taken into consideration in information

systems.

Implementing agency: FAO

Funders: EC

Agriculture

(food)

Mozambiqu

e, Kenya,

Malawi,

West Bank

and Gaza,

Somalia,

Ethiopia


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The African ICT Environment

Large growth in the mobile sector

SSA: 88million , 12.3/100 in 2000 to 333million, 41.4/100 in 2010. Almost1 subscription per adult

Almost 100% network geographical coverage by 2015ITU Mobile networks will provide the principal communication medium in

Africa.

Backbone and backhaul infrastructure is shifting from wireless to fibre optictechnology

Mobiles will become the device of choice for internet access. 98% ofinternet subscriptions in Kenya are mobile internet subscriptions

Broadband (fixed and mobile) is important for large scale interventionsincluding application to climate change.

However, broadband access is yet to match the pace in other regions4%density in Africa compared to 70% in Europe (mobile and fixed) in 2010 -

ITU


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Uganda

Liberalised telecom sector. Strong competition

Small and dense country hence almost 100% mobile coverage.

Low teledensities32.8% (2009) 70% mobile connections in urban areas in a predominantly rural country

Lack of affordable last mile access to rural areas

Landlocked countryproactively accessing fibre through Kenya.

Senegal

Higher subscription rates than Uganda and across Africa68.5% in 2011 Liberalised sector but Orange (former Sonatel) has majority market share (60%)

Better broadband implementation and more affordable pricing.

Mobile devices offer greater confidence for use in Senegal than Uganda

Regulatory challenges still exist. ARTP still dependent on government. Should

implement more effective price regulation across the board


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Malawi

Less advance telecom sector than Senegal and Uganda

Mobile subscription at 24% Mobile tariffs much higher.

High cost of international bandwidth imply higherbroadband pricing

Transit negotiations ongoing. Might reduce internationalbandwidth, internet prices and enable greater use ofbroadband


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Implications for Climate Change Adaptation

Can be used for information dissemination for short term alarmssuch as flood warnings, guidance and to help people change

behaviour or reduce vulnerability Can extend the potential for monitoring environmental risks and

impacts

TechnicalUnattended remote monitoring by static devices, e.g.meteorological

HumanThrough crowdsourcing, monitoring of changingcircumstances

Adaptation Action based on information received

Enable people to communicate and coordinate better


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Country Case Studies Senegal. AfricaAdapt

Independent bilingual network launched in 2009 focused exclusivelyon Africa

Aim to facilitate the flow of CCA knowledge and sustainablelivelihoods between researchers, policy makers, CSOs andcommunities vulnerable to climate variability

Network is supported by a website listing face to face eventsallowing people to profile self and their adaptation actions

Offers incentives to members to publish and develop specificadaptation projects from small grants

Have ran 2 call for proposals. Received 500 responses from countriesfor $6.5 to 10K. Funded only 10.

Places important emphasis on Indigenous knowledge and Adaptation

(Banks may want to focus future research in this areaICTs, IK andAdaptation).


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Country Case Studies Senegal. AfricaAdapt

Challenges:

Harmonizing a few other knowledge sharing platforms thatcurrently exists.

Wealth of case studies exists in platform. However still lacks inattempts to fit this knowledge into typical adaptation planningsteps and project cycles.

Web based platforms invariable target a small subsector of theAfrican Society. Cross platform communication mechanismsbetween prevalent broadcast and communications technologymay be required.


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Country Case Studies Uganda: Adaptation in Crop Production

Limited research in understanding present and future potentialimpacts of climate risk in crop production for maize, beans andcoffee.

Project explores ICT use to support information sharing between keystakeholders to enhance adaptation action, and for environmentalmanagement such as irrigation, water flows and GIS for moreefficient crop placement.

Challenges

Managing and communicating CCA information flows 9e.gchanges in rainfall and temperature) from govt to people lacksupport.

Broadcast technology still holds promise. And Human interface(community facilitators) significant as intermediary fordisseminating information and knowledge


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Country Case Studies Malawi: Water Management and ICTs

Existing projects using ICTs to research/create water balance modelfor Lake Malawi

Use of wireless sensor networs to develop and implement selfsustained, low cost online water quality monitoring system in sewagetreatment works.

More analysis following country focus group event next week.


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Thank You

Ben Akoh, Project Manager, [email protected]

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