Climate Variability and

Potential Predictabilityin CFS

Wilbur Y. Chen

Climate Prediction Center

NCEP/NWS/NOAA

Clim TotalVariance

Diff

MDL

OBS

More > 1. than < 1.

DML

OBS

DIFF

ENSODJFs

NEUTDJFs

MorePositive

More Negative

MDL

OBS

Ratio

ENSODJFs

NEUTDJFs

More

>> 1.

Less > 1.

A

B

A

B

MDL VAR of

ENS Means

Versus

ENS Spreads

VAR of ENS Means

Var of ENSSpreads

Neutral DJFs

ENSO DJFs

Diff

MDL Behavior

MDL VAR Ratio = Neutral / ENSO

More < 1.

More > 1.

Neut

ENSO

WarmDJFs

Cold DJFs

DIFF

VAR of ENSMeans

VAR of ENSSpreads

MorePosit

MoreNegat

Potential Predictability

VAR of Clim Signal------------------------------------Total VAR (Signal+noise)

ENSODJFs

NeutDJFs

Potential Pred: ENSO vs Neut

Potential Pred: Warm vs Cold