Climate Test Bed

Outreach to the Climate Applications Community

Mel Gelman, for Wayne HigginsClimate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA

NWS ERH/SRH Climate Workshop, June 20-21, 2007 Peachtree City, GA

Climate Test Bed/CPC Outreach to the Climate Applications Community

1) CTB engages with the Climate Applications Community to identify user needs, and to accelerate the transition of this research into CPC products.

2) We in CPC need your help in doing this.  We need your help in understanding how to do this.

CTB/CPC OutreachCTB/CPC Outreach

To the Climate Research Community

Competitive Grants Program (with annual AO through NCPO) to accelerate improvements in NCEP climate models and forecast products.

Enhancing interactions and exchange visits with RISAs to develop and deliver new and improved climate forecast products.

To the Climate Product Applications and User Community

We NEED Your Help

Collaborative Transition Projects Collaborative Transition Projects (CTB Competitive Grants Program)(CTB Competitive Grants Program)

FY06 : Climate Forecast SystemFY06 : Climate Forecast System• Using initial tendency errors to reduce systematic errors

(PI: Delsole, COLA; Co-PI: Pan, EMC)

• Neural network emulations of model physics (PI: Rabinovitz, U. MD; Co-PI: Krasnapolsky, Saha EMC)

• Ocean component of the NCEP ENSO CFS (PI: McPhaden, PMEL; Co-PI: Xue, EMC)

FY07 : Climate Forecast ProductsFY07 : Climate Forecast Products• System-wide advancement of user-centric climate forecast

products (PI: Hartmann (UAZ); Co-PI: Ed O’Lenic (CPC))

OUTREACHOUTREACH

•Collaboration is key:– Meeting customer demands for climate information.

Develop regionally specific forecast products for applications. Work with partners.

• Participate in national & regional meetings that bring producers & users together.

• Recognize limitations. Work with intermediaries (e.g. RISA, RCC, NWS,CSD).

• Links to cooperative institutes, international programs (e.g. CLIVAR, GEWEX), and other agencies.

• Collaborative transition projects (Competitive Grants Program).

RISA: Southeast Climate Consortium (SECC) CPC/CTB Contact: Muthuvel Chelliah

RISA Contact: Jim Jones/ Keith Ingram/

Jim O’ Brien

Area of Collaboration: Climate Outlook and Service: Downscaling CPC outlooks of Temperature, Precipitation. Regional ENSO Impacts; Crop-Yield Forecasting; Applications of high resolution GCMs, CFS hindcasts.

CTB/CPC OutreachCPC/CTB Outreach

• SECC scientist Dr. Guillermo Baigorria visited CPC to develop forecast tools for use in crop yield forecasting in the Southeast United States

•Work with Crop Yield Data for Forecast Purposes •Work with Model Hindcasts

RISA: Western Water Assessment (WWA) CPC/CTB Contact: Michelle L’Heureux

RISA Contact: Andrea Ray

Area of Collaboration: To exploit the relationship between the MJO and AO to improve sub-seasonal climate forecasts. To develop products tailored to WWA needs and objectives.

Temperature Composite MJO Phases 7,8 – Phases 2,3,4

CTB/CPC OutreachCPC/CTB Outreach

RISA: Climate Assessments for the Southwest (CLIMAS)

CPC/CTB Contact: Ed O’Lenic

CTB/CPC OutreachCPC/CTB Outreach

RISA Contact: Holly C. Hartmann

Area of Collaboration: System-Wide Advancement of User-Centric Climate Forecast Products.

1)  Information Technology and Modular Products Development:   a)  Develop for CPC Simple Object Access Protocol  b)  Develop set of customizable products to serve users. 2)  Establish a framework for delivery of services.  Provide user capabilities to interact with products with software which produces user-customized products. 3)  Developing the language and format:    a)  Language appropriate to the users.   b)  Field testing specific products for effectiveness of communication.

FY08 CTB Priority for FY08 CTB Priority for NIDIS-DroughtNIDIS-Drought

• New Drought Monitoring products:

Soil Moisture based on multi model ensemble NLDAS and regional reanalysis;

• New Drought Forecast tools:

Objective drought forecasts based on CFS and statistical tools;

Improved seasonal forecasts based on improved MME dynamical forecasts;

Improved week 1 and week 2 forecasts based on downscaling of NAEFs

• Improvements to Operational Drought Monitor & Outlook;

• Contributions to NIDIS Portal and NIDIS Pilots.

GIS Conversion at CPC Contact: Contact: Tim LoveTim Love

Project Goal:

• To convert all operational CPC products to Geographic Information Systems format

Status/Details

• Currently in testing phase

• Ascii and binary products will be converted, routinely, using automated techniques

• Existing GIS files (such as hazards assessments) will adopt a standardized format

• An Internet-based Map Server will allow users to selectively download and overlay CPC GIS files

Example: US Drought Monitor layers superimposed upon precipitation & water bodies

Spatially collocated GIS data allows for straightforward analysis

Applications Outreach

•CTB participated in 2006 and 2007 CPAS Workshops, in cooperation with CSD. GIS conversion of all CPC/CTB forecast products is underway. •A program to enhance interactions between CTB/CPC, the RISAs and the ARCs was initiated to identify and meet user needs for regionally specific and enhanced climate forecast products.

•Specific CTB/CPC personnel work as liaisons with counterparts at the various RISA centers.•CTB/CPC makes short visits to the different RISAs to provide customized CPC overviews of CPC’s forecast, monitoring and assessment products. •RISAs are invited to send longer term visitors (up to several months) to CPC to develop customized products from CPC product suite.•We intend to expand this program to include other centers, to gain an understanding of needs for enhanced CPC products.

•In support of NIDIS, work is in progress towards more objective, model based, drought/hydrology monitoring and outlook on week1, week2 and seasonal time scales.

The CTB “Message”The CTB “Message”The CTB will:The CTB will:• Deliver opportunities for goal directed research (both funded and unfunded) using the NCEP Climate Forecast System, other climate models, and a state of the art multi-model ensemble approach to improving climate prediction.

• Enhance cooperative partnerships between CPC and the broader climate research and applications communities by providing an operational testing facility (supercomputer and support staff) to facilitate smooth transitions.

• Accelerate the transition of research advances into enhanced NCEP operational climate forecasts, products and applications.

• Increase the accuracy, reliability, range and scope of operational climate forecast products to meet the needs of a diverse user community.

WE NEED YOUR HELP