Climate Futures for TasmaniaClimate Futures for Tasmania

Steve Wilson

TIAR/School of Agricultural Science

University of Tasmania

The world in 2040:

Predicted•higher carbon dioxide•higher average temperature•higher average rainfall•higher average humidity

Unknown•local climate and weather •physical and economic impacts•opportunities

GCM Temperature Prediction to 2070GCM Temperature Prediction to 2070

Australia in 2030

Rainfall: decrease 2-5% in the south mainly in winter and spring. No change in the north.

Evapotranspiration: increase Australia wide of 2%Drought: various measures but projected to increase

frequency and intensity Temperature: overall 0.9oC, greater inland less on coast.

Increased frequency of extreme temperature days Wind: generally increased wind flow, but projected decrease

in summer at 40oS Drivers: El Nino to become drier, SAM positive shift causing

weaker westerly wind flows

Devil in the detail?

Queensland Fruit fly: winter soil temperature threshold for pupal survival is unknown (9.7oC for Med-fly)

Wine grapes: wine quality and summer temperatures

Increasing soil temperaturesIncreasing soil temperatures

Average minimum winter soil temperatures at depths shown

R2 = 0.6264

R2 = 0.7007

5

6

7

8

9

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Years since 1990

Tem

pera

ture

(oC

)

10cm

20cm

Real data for a forgotten environment?

From Meats (2004)

The range for Queensland fruitfly:air temperature?rainfall?soil temperature?

Wine quality:decrease in traditional areas?

more suitable land in Tasmania

BackgroundBackground

Previous study for Hydro Tasmania, results published 2005

One model – extended to 2040 with a focus on catchment inflow data

Previous study for Hydro Tasmania, results published 2005

One model – extended to 2040 with a focus on catchment inflow data

Tasmania in 2040:

PredictedRainfall•no change to slight decrease in annual total•increase in winter and early springTemperature•insignificant to small increase in mean daily maxima•small increase in mean daily minima•significant (1oC) increase in winter-early summer minimaWind and evaporation•small increases in both wind speed and potential evaporation

Unknown•frost frequency and intensity•frequency, duration and distribution of extended rain events

This ProjectThis Project

ACE CRC in collaboration with others 3 year project, building on the work undertaken

for Hydro Tasmania Delivering results applicable to range of

Tasmanian stakeholders Producing results on a range of possible futures,

out to 2100

ACE CRC in collaboration with others 3 year project, building on the work undertaken

for Hydro Tasmania Delivering results applicable to range of

Tasmanian stakeholders Producing results on a range of possible futures,

out to 2100

StructureStructure

Fine-scale (10-15 km resolution) climate projections for Tasmania under a range of accepted greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Model outputs will be tailored for specific applications:

Water - catchments and reservoirs

Extreme events

Climate impacts on agriculture and other industries

Fine-scale (10-15 km resolution) climate projections for Tasmania under a range of accepted greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Model outputs will be tailored for specific applications:

Water - catchments and reservoirs

Extreme events

Climate impacts on agriculture and other industries

OutputsOutputs

Assessments of the range of climate conditions likely to be experienced across Tasmania over the next 90 years (to 2100);

Reports on future projections for key variables identified as important by end users

Climate model outputs provided for input into operational models by collaborating end-users;

Raw model results for all estimated variables will be stored and available on-line for further research or application.

Assessments of the range of climate conditions likely to be experienced across Tasmania over the next 90 years (to 2100);

Reports on future projections for key variables identified as important by end users

Climate model outputs provided for input into operational models by collaborating end-users;

Raw model results for all estimated variables will be stored and available on-line for further research or application.

WaterWater

Sample information: runoff and catchment yields, evaporation rates

Research providers: Hydro Tasmania, DPIW, ACE CRC

Primary End Users: Hydro Tasmania, water authorities, local government, agriculture, forestry

Sample information: runoff and catchment yields, evaporation rates

Research providers: Hydro Tasmania, DPIW, ACE CRC

Primary End Users: Hydro Tasmania, water authorities, local government, agriculture, forestry

Extreme EventsExtreme Events

Sample information: fire weather, storm surges, high intensity rainfall events, extreme wind events

Research providers: SES, CSIRO, BOM, ACE CRC

Primary End Users: SES, Local Government, Aurora, Transend, Fire Service

Sample information: fire weather, storm surges, high intensity rainfall events, extreme wind events

Research providers: SES, CSIRO, BOM, ACE CRC

Primary End Users: SES, Local Government, Aurora, Transend, Fire Service

General Climate ImpactsGeneral Climate Impacts

Sample data: seasonal and spatial rainfall distribution, seasonal maximum, minimum and average air and soil temperatures, evaporation and wind flow.Research providers: TIAR, DPIW, CSIRO, BOM, ACE CRCPrimary End Users: Agriculture, Forestry, Local Government, Hydro, Aurora, Transend, SES, DPIW

Sample data: seasonal and spatial rainfall distribution, seasonal maximum, minimum and average air and soil temperatures, evaporation and wind flow.Research providers: TIAR, DPIW, CSIRO, BOM, ACE CRCPrimary End Users: Agriculture, Forestry, Local Government, Hydro, Aurora, Transend, SES, DPIW

OutcomesOutcomes

Industries, government utility and services agencies and communities informed about likely climate conditions in coming decades

A database for planning adaptation strategies Advanced warning of key vulnerabilities to climate

change for risk mitigation Identification and awareness of industry opportunities

and the capacity to plan to take maximum advantage of likely changes in climate.

Industries, government utility and services agencies and communities informed about likely climate conditions in coming decades

A database for planning adaptation strategies Advanced warning of key vulnerabilities to climate

change for risk mitigation Identification and awareness of industry opportunities

and the capacity to plan to take maximum advantage of likely changes in climate.

TimingTiming

Primary analysisAll new climate prediction model runs complete by end 2009

Secondary analysisPreliminary analysis/modelling within the three components

using output from the existing Hydro Tasmania model in 2008

Incorporation of new model outputs into secondary models and vulnerability/opportunity analyses in years 2 and 3

Primary analysisAll new climate prediction model runs complete by end 2009

Secondary analysisPreliminary analysis/modelling within the three components

using output from the existing Hydro Tasmania model in 2008

Incorporation of new model outputs into secondary models and vulnerability/opportunity analyses in years 2 and 3

TIAR activitiesTIAR activities

Links with other agencies and organisations Links with community - extension and

information flow Outputs available for all current research and

development programs Climate change as a research priority area -

impacts, adaptation and opportunities Funding for new research programs Beyond 2010?

Links with other agencies and organisations Links with community - extension and

information flow Outputs available for all current research and

development programs Climate change as a research priority area -

impacts, adaptation and opportunities Funding for new research programs Beyond 2010?