Climate Change Uncertainty and Risk: from Probabilistic Forecasts to Economics of Climate AdaptationDavid N. Bresch, IED ETH & Reto Knutti, IAC ETHAssistants: Thomas Röösli, Joel Zeder, Samuel Eberenz, Benedikt Knüsel and Jamie McCaughey

Schedule

24.02.2020 (1) Logistics, Introduction to probability, uncertaintyand risk management (RK, DB)

02.03.2020 (2) Predictability of weather and climate (RK)Exercise 1 (toy model)

09.03.2020 (3) Detection/attribution (RK) 16.03.2020 (4) Model evaluation & calibration (RK)

Exercise 2 (toy model)23.03.2020 (5) 2°C target and adaptation in UNFCCC (RK, DB)30.03.2020 (6) Climate change and impacts, use of scenarios (RK, DB)

Exercise 3 (toy model), preparation of presentation06.04.2020 (7) Probabilistic risk assessment model and some insurance basics (DB)

Exercise 4 (introduction to CLIMADA)13.04.2020 Ostermontag (no course)20.04.2020 (8) Presentations of toy model work, discussion (DB, RK)

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Schedule

27.04.2020 (9) Basics of economic evaluation and economic decision making (DB)Exercise 5 (impacts)

04.05.2020 (10) The cost of adaptation - in developing and developed regions (DB)11.05.2020 (11) Shaping climate-resilient development – valuation of a basket of

adaptation options (DB)Exercise 6 (adaptation measures, preparation of presentation)

18.05.2020 (12) Climate services and adaptation in SwitzerlandExercise 7 (Swiss climate scenarios CH2018 for adaptation)

25.05.2020 (13) Presentations of climada exercise and final discussion (DB, RK)

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UNFCCC – Overall Objective 1992 (New York)

UNFCCC, Article 2: Objective: § The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference

of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

Source: United Nations, ‘United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’, in Report of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework Convention on Climate Change on the Work of the Second Part of its Fifth Session, held at New York from 30 April to 9 May 1992: Addendum (Doc. No A/AC.237/18 (Part II)/Add.1, Annex I, 16 October 1992)

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What is dangerous?

1. What is an appropriate metric to measure?2. Which threshold should we set?3. How do we incorporate uncertainty and probability for failure?4. Dangerous to whom?5. Who decides and how?

à We will create 5 zoom breakout rooms, each discussing one question. You will be automatically assigned to one, we call you back in 5 minutes. Each room shall nominate one person to briefly report back at the end.

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The EU, UNFCCC and 2°C

§ “[...] the Council believes that global average temperatures should not exceed 2 degrees above pre-industrial level and that therefore concentration levels lower than 550 ppm CO2 should guide global limitation and reduction efforts.[...]”(1939th Council meeting, Luxembourg, 25 June 1996)

§ “The European Council calls upon all Parties to embrace the 2°C objective and to agree to global emission reductions of at least 50%, and aggregate developed country emission reductions of at least 80-95%, as part of such global emission reductions, by 2050 compared to 1990 levels.“(EU Council, 2009)

§ The Paris agreement aims at holding “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels” (UNFCCC Paris, 2015)

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Why 2°C?

§ 2°C has been agreed formally as a climate target.§ Science alone cannot defend 2°C.§ 2°C may be the worst we can tolerate and the best we can hope for.§ Even 2°C will have significant adverse impacts that require adaptation. Warming without

intervention is likely to have serious negative and potentially irreversible impacts.

§ 2°C as an illustration of a mitigation scenario. The following ideas apply also to any other target.

(Knutti et al., 2016 Nature Geoscience, DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2595)7

What is dangerous?

Source: Knutti et al. 2015 NatGeo

8

What is dangerous?

Source: Knutti et al. 2015 NatGeo9

What is dangerous?

Source:

Riskvery high

undetectable

Extreme weather

Global aggregate impacts

Tipping points

Temperature change [°C]relative to 1986-2005

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What is dangerous?

Source: Tagblatt11

Pathways for Business as Usual (BAU) and 2°C

[Gt CO2/Jahr]

as usual

Source: Knutti et al. 2015 NatGeo12

Pathways for BAU and 2°C

[Gt CO2/Jahr]

as usual

2010

Source: Knutti et al. 2015 NatGeo13

Pathways for BAU and 2°C

[Gt CO2/Jahr]

2010 2030

as usual

Source: Knutti et al. 2015 NatGeo14

Pathways for BAU and 2°C: INDCs

[Gt CO2/Jahr]

2030

Source: Knutti et al. 2015 NatGeo15

The carbon budget

Source: IPCC AR5 SPM.1016

How to distribute the carbon budget

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UNFCCC – Overall Objective 1992 (New York)

UNFCCC, Article 3: Principles

The Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing such measures, taking into account that policies and measures to deal with climate change should be cost-effective so as to ensure global benefits at the lowest possible cost.

Source: United Nations, ‘United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’, in Report of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework Convention on Climate Change on the Work of the Second Part of its Fifth Session, held at New York from 30 April to 9 May 1992: Addendum (Doc. No A/AC.237/18 (Part II)/Add.1, Annex I, 16 October 1992)

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How do we value irreversibility

Source:

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“The work of the organization [IPCC] is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.”

Squeezed between science and policy

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Squeezed between science and policy

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UNFCCC – Overall Objective 1992 (New York)

UNFCCC, Article 2: Objective: § The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the

Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

§ Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adaptnaturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

Source: United Nations, ‘United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’, in Report of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework Convention on Climate Change on the Work of the Second Part of its Fifth Session, held at New York from 30 April to 9 May 1992: Addendum (Doc. No A/AC.237/18 (Part II)/Add.1, Annex I, 16 October 1992)

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What is adaptation?

“Adaptation refers to adjustments in ecological, social, or economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and their effects or impacts. It refers to changes in processes, practices, and structures to moderate potential damages or to benefit from opportunities associated with climate change". (IPCC 2001, Third Assessment Report)

Solutions to adapt to the effects of climate change take many shapes and forms, depending on the unique context of a community, business/organization, country, region etc., and the specific impacts of climate change. There is no ‘one-size-fits-all-solution when it comes to climate change adaptation - adaptation can range from building flood defenses, setting up early warning systems for cyclones and switching to crops that fare better under drought conditions, to redesigning communication systems, business operations and government policies.

Adaptation commonly focuses on reducing vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, and increasing adaptive capacity and coping range.

http://unfccc.int/adaptation/items/7021.php#whatis

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UNFCCC – Decision 1995 (Berlin)

UNFCCC, Decision 11/CP.1 Stages for Adaptation Activities and Funding§ Stage I: Planning, which includes studies of possible impacts of climate change, to identify

particularly vulnerable countries or regions and policy options for adaptation and appropriate capacity building.

§ Stage II: Measures, including further capacity building, which may be taken to prepare for adaptation as envisaged in Article 4.1(e).

§ Stage III: Measures to facilitate adequate adaptation, including insurance, and other adaptation measures as envisaged by Article 4.1(b) and 4.4.

Source: UNFCCC, ‘Initial Guidance on Policies, Programme Priorities and Eligibility Criteria to the Operating Entity or Entities of the Financial Mechanism’, in Report of the Conference of the Parties on its First Session, held at Berlin from 28 March–7 April 1995 (FCCC/CP/1995/7/Add.1, 6 June1995).

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UNFCCC – Adaptation Fund, 2001 (Marrakesh)

§ The Adaptation Fund (AF) was established in 2001 to finance concrete adaptation projects and programmes in developing country Parties to the Kyoto Protocol that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.

§ The Adaptation Fund is financed with a share of proceeds from the clean development mechanism (CDM) project activities and other sources of funding. The share of proceeds amounts to 2 per cent of certified emission reductions (CERs) issued for a CDM project activity.

§ The Adaptation Fund is supervised and managed by the Adaptation Fund Board (AFB). The AFB is composed of 16 members and 16 alternates and meets at least twice a year (Membership of the AFB).

§ Project information: https://www.adaptation-fund.org/projects-programmes/project-information

§ Latest press release: https://www.adaptation-fund.org/adaptation-fund-board-approves-implementation-plan-strategy-focused-action-innovation-learning/

http://unfccc.int/cooperation_and_support/financial_mechanism/adaptation_fund/items/3659.php

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UNFCCC – Adaptation milestones

§ 2001, COP 7, Marrakesh: Least Developed Countries (LDC) Work Programme to develop national climate change mechanisms and build capacity. Through National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA), LDCs identify and report their adaptation needs. Establishment of the Adaptation Fund (AF).

§ 2006, COP 12, Nairobi: Nairobi Work Programme (NWP) to undertake a 5 year project to address impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in relation to climate change.

§ 2010, COP 16, Cancun: Cancun Adaptation Framework (CAF). Implementation, including a process to enable LDC Parties to formulate and implement national adaptation plans (NAPs), and a work programme to consider approaches to address loss and damage (L&D); support; institutions, including the establishment of an Adaptation Committee at a global level, as well as regional and national level arrangements; principles; and stakeholder engagement. Establishment of the Green Climate Fund (GCF).

http://unfccc.int/focus/adaptation/items/6999.php26

UNFCCC – Green Climate Fund, 2010 (Cancun)

§ The Green Climate Fund (GCF) was established 2010 as a new global fund to support the efforts of developing countries to respond to the challenge of climate change, both in mitigation and adaptation. Holds USD 10.3 billion.

§ The GCF seeks to promote a paradigm shift to low-emission and climate-resilient development, taking into account the needs of nations that are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts.

§ When the Paris Agreement was reached in 2015, the Green Climate Fund was given an important role in serving the agreement and supporting the goal of keeping climate change well below 2 degrees Celsius. The Fund’s investments can be in the form of grants, loans, equity or guarantees.

§ Iro potential linkages between the Adaptation Fund (AF) and the Green Climate Fund (GCF): Two-track approach has been decided upon, March 2018 (Bonn):§ of initiating the process toward accreditation of the AF with the GCF§ and continuing discussions on practical fund-to-fund collaboration

https://www.greenclimate.fund/who-we-are/about-the-fund link AF-GCF: https://www.adaptation-fund.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/AFB.B.31.6_Potential-linkages-bewteen_AF-and-GCF_final_clean2.pdf

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UNFCCC – Adaptation, Paris Agreement, 2015

The procedural gains made through the establishment of a regular stock take and adaptation communications provide enhanced transparency around national adaptation planning and may increase the accountability of parties to the adaptation goals set out in the (I)NDCs.Three main challenges:1. Baseline for adaptation (identification of appropriate reference points iro ‘enhancing adaptive

capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change’)2. Measuring progress (clarity on how adaptation intersects with broader development and risk

reduction efforts, and thus what constitutes a ‘progression beyond previous efforts’)3. Finance (‘developed countries shall provide financial resources to assist developing country

parties’ and ‘should aim to achieve a balance between adaptation and mitigation’ – issue of private sector investment to be directed at mitigation projects rather than adaptation)

Lesnikowski at al., 2017; What Does the Paris Agreement Mean for Adaptation?. Climate Policy 17 (7): 825–31.28

COP 21, December 2015, Paris

Quelle: World Resource Institute (WRI), http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9444.php

174 Parties of 197 Signatories to the Convention have ratified 29

NAPA1 – Bangladesh example

1 NAPA: National Adaptation Programmes of Action30

(I)NDC1 – Bangladesh example

1 (I)NDC: (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions, portal: http://www4.unfccc.int/ndcregistry/Pages/Party.aspx?party=BGD31

UNFCCC – NAPA and (I)NDC for Bangladesh

§ National Adaptation Programme of Action – NAPAhttps://unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/ban01.pdfhttps://unfccc.int/topics/resilience/workstreams/national-adaptation-programmes-of-action/napas-received (link fails)

§ (Intended) Nationally Determined Contribution – (I)NDChttps://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/Bangladesh%20First/INDC_2015_of_Bangladesh.pdfhttp://www4.unfccc.int/ndcregistry/Pages/Party.aspx?party=BGD (link dos not lead to it)

Questions (answers to be based on documents provided):

§ Would you act based on this document – and how?

§ What’s missing – or what else would you need to (better) act?

à As before, we will split into breakout rooms, some rooms for the NAPA, some for the NDC of Bangladesh. Each room discusses both questions for 5 minutes. We will then reconvene.

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UNFCCC – Adaptation ‘summary’

UNFCCC, Decision 11/CP.1 Stages for Adaptation Activities and Funding§ Kyoto Protocol focused primarily on mitigating emissions, limited attention to adaptation, only

via adaptation fund (AF)§ Lack of conceptual consensus on adaptation and political abuse of the concept as a hindering

factor for widespread acceptance of adaptation (in UNFCCC)§ Adaptation began its life in the UNFCCC process as an ecological concept, it has more recently

been used as a synonym for development.§ IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, 2007): Synergies between mitigation and adaptation,

considered the linkages between the two responses as a cross-cutting issue.§ Adaptation is not an alternative to mitigation, but is now a necessary objective. à a paradigm

shift to low-emission and climate-resilient development (GCF)§ Questions remain: To what extent needs adaptation to be supported by global policy? Is

UNFCCC is the most appropriate policy framework for adaptation?

Sources: see previous slides and Schipper, ELF, 2006: Conceptual History of Adaptation in the UNFCCC Process. RECIEL 15 (1).33