Climate change risks and recommendations for adaptations: The case of Lower Usuthu

Smallholder Irrigation Project, Swaziland.

Ray M. Gama & Musa Masilela

BACKGROUND

The Lower Usuthu Smallholder Irrigation Project (LUSIP) is a poverty alleviation initiative located in the

Lower Usuthu river basin which is the largest river basin in Swaziland with an area of 12, 559 km2. The

study area (Siphofaneni) is located in the lowveld agro-climatic region of Swaziland, between latitudes

26° 40' 60 S and longitudes 31° 40' 60 E with an altitude of 164m above sea level. The main goal of

LUSIP is to improve the standard of living of the people in the project area, who are currently the poorest

in the country. The project will achieve this goal by transforming the local economy from subsistence

farming into sustainable commercial agriculture. In achieving this, the project will significantly contribute

to the achievement of the millennium development goals (MDGs). The Lower Usuthu Smallholder

Irrigation Project was commenced in December 2003 and is scheduled to be completed in 2015. The

project was founded to address the lack of irrigation water for poor farmers as the dry season river flow of

the Lower Usuthu River has already been fully allocated to existing irrigators. The LUSIP project will

address this constraint by storing flood water in an off-river, 155Mm3 Reservoir at Lubovane that will

provide irrigation water for an overall 11, 500 ha after completion of the second phase in 2015. Three

dams have been constructed at Mhlathuzane River, Golome River and Saddle dam to form an off river

reservoir to store flood water diverted from wet season flows in the Usuthu River.

The Lower Usuthu Smallholder Irrigation Project is a E1.4 billion poverty alleviation investment by the

Swaziland Government. It is prudent it is used optimally and guarded against climate as a risk. This paper

aims at collating relevant climate change studies which relevant to the project and make

recommendations.

INTRODUCTION

It has been argued that the recent climate change is attributed to anthropogenic activities. It is here to stay

as evidenced by impacts globally, continentally and at local scales. According to (Conway, 2008) the

current Sahelian drought has resulted in the Sahelian Sudanese and Guinean ecological zones shifting 25-

35 km further south, with loss of valuable grassland, savanna and other resources that the indigenous

people rely upon. One of the most severe consequences has been the Darfur conflict in the Sudan, which

originated from clashes between pastoralists and sedentary farmers over depleted water and other

resources. Droughts and floods have hit hard in Zambia and Mozambique resulting to loss of lives and

property. The results are in many respects irreversible. Southern Africa, Swaziland inclusive had

6.5million hungry people in April 2009 according the (WFP Report, 2009). The food basket, South Africa

will have a twenty percent reduction in cereal production in the next 15-20 years.

Swaziland is affected adversely by climate change already. However, it is not known by how much

precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, temperature and runoff are going to change due to the

greenhouse gases effect (Matondo et al., 2004). These climate variables (rainfall, temperature), are key in

determining the risk posed by climate change to all life forms. This in effect, implies it is not very clear

what impacts climate change would have on a variety of crops.

This paper aims to collate available information on climate change impacts, with particular emphasis on

LUSIP smallholder agriculture. It will also do a preliminary assessment of the current LUSIP project

related activities and its relevance to climate change. Thirdly, it will prepare preliminary

recommendations to improve, discontinue, modify, enhance or introduce new activities to improve

smallholder farmers’ resilience, and propose relevant mitigations and adaptation measures.

OBJECTIVES

‐ To debate relevant research findings on climate change in Swaziland and relating it with LUSIP in

the Usuthu River Basin

‐ To do a preliminary assessment of the current project related activities and its relevance to climate

change.

‐ To recommend climate change response strategies for LUSIP.

LITERATURE REVIEW

It has been argued that the recent climate change is attributed to anthropogenic activities. Human

interventions are causing the earth to change too fast and this affects adaptability of many living

organisms. According UNEP and UNFCCC (2002) the earth temperature has increased by 0.6o C and this

is attributed to increase in green house gases exacerbated by emission from human activities. Green house

gases control energy flow in the atmosphere by absorbing infrared radiation emitted by the earth. Green

house gases act like a blanket to keep the earth some 20oC warmer than it would be if atmosphere

contained only oxygen and nitrogen (UNEP and UNFCCC, 2002). Global average temperature is

predicted to increase by 1.4-5.8oC by year 2100 (UNEP and UNFCCC, 2002).

The 2001, IPPC report on climate change reveals an increase in mean sea level by 10-20cm and further

predicts a further increase by 9-88cm by year 2100. In 2001, the carbon concentration in the atmosphere

was 367ppm and it is predicted to increase to 490-1260ppm by year 2100 (UNEP and UNFCCC, 2002).

Carbon dioxide is currently responsible for over 60% of enhanced green house effect. This is promoted by

the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, gas and oil. Power stations release aerosols which are microscopic

particles from sulphur dioxide and nitrous oxides released from agriculture also contribute as green house

gases. The impacts of climate change will involve an increase in droughts in some regions especially in

the African continent and floods, hurricanes and monsoons will be experienced in other regions especially

in the northern hemisphere. Africa and Asia is likely to experience reduction in rainfall and increase in

severe droughts. Globally, the green house gases effect is expected to increase average precipitation by 5-

15% and Evapotranspiration by 10-20%.

METHODOLOGY

The aim is to collate local published and non-published research findings on climate change for the study

area. Siphofaneni is the LUSIP project development area. These are debated with the aim of

recommending coping mechanisms and strategies for the long-term sustainability of the project.

FINDINGS

Reduction of run-off in the Usuthu River Basin

According to (Matondo, et. al., 2004), there will be a 4% decrease in annual runoff same as the one

observed by (Mhlanga, 2010) the annual run-off is for the Usuthu River Basin which drains the study

area. Water is harvested during summer to fill the Lubovane resevoiur. Such a reduction implies a

reduction in floods, leading to less water stored than normal and eventually affecting irrigation demands.

The magnitude of the impacts caused by the reduction has to be established. Otherwise, according to

(IPCC, 2001), Sub-Saharan Africa is the one region, in the world, where per-capita food production is

either in decline, or roughly constant at a level that is less than adequate (Scholes and Biggs, 2004).

According to (Mabuza et al, 2007) Swaziland is among the sub-Saharan countries that have been worst

affected by prevailing droughts over the past five to six years. During the 2002 to 2005 production

seasons, cereal food aid played a major role in filling Swaziland’s maize gap following Government’s

appeal to the international community to assist in alleviating the negative production impacts of

2001/2002 and successive droughts that were coupled with erratic rains. The Siphofaneni community is

presently relying from food aid which emanates from erratic rains leading to poor production. It is

assumed that erratic rains are a result of climate change. SWADE has come to shift the paradymn with

water provision and managing the climate change risk.

Effects on the Lubovane resevoiur

According to (Mhlanga, 2010) using after running Watbal Climate Change models, it is predicted that on

a dry-year condition the reservoir will not fill up but a live storage level will be reached. There will be no

serious challenges to meeting the gross demand for the project. For such a scenario no serious shortages

will be experienced but water should still be managed properly assuming 25% initial storage is available

at the beginning of the season in 2075. If not, then there will be an imbalance in demand/supply.

Soil Water Availability implications for the LUSIP Area

While there is considerable consensus among climate scientists on these general outlines of climate

change, there is much less agreement on how climate change will affect a given location, using the

HaDCM3, model, both the 2050 A2 and B2 water deficiency projections by Knox et. al. (2010) show that

the area around Siphofaneni and Big Bend (LUSIP development area) will lie in two regions projected to

have soil moisture deficiency of 700 – 800mm and 800 – 900mm compared to the current 600 – 700 and

700 – 800mm, respectively. (Knox et al., 2010) also concluded that future irrigation needs would increase

by 20–22% in order to produce a unit weight of sucrose equivalent to current optimum levels of

production.

It is evident that strict water management and sustainable land uses are important issues to be considered

and factored into all planning and management regimes in the project area.

In summary, the Usuthu River Basin is going to be affected by climate change predicted to be 4%, the

Lubovane reservoir might take time to fill during such conditions which might need proper management

and projected soil moisture deficiency from 700-800mm is predicted to conclude a 20-22% increase in

irrigation demand. Science informs policy. These findings are supposed to assist implementing agents and

the GoS in evaluating progress made in coping mechanisms and also coming up with new ones to be

implemented in the PDA.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Reduction of run-off by 4%

• The system for harvesting water should be real-time. This calls for the installation of a telemetry

system or telecommunication system that will report how much water is flowing at GS6 to indicate

how much water can be diverted real-time. GS9 might also need to be included so that we establish

realtime the flow to Mozambique as per the Tripartite Agreement. This calls for a centralized system

from the intake (Bulungapoort) weir to GS9

• Introduction of variable water permits (water rationing) . This mandates the reduction of water

rights during low flows. It is also enshrined in the water Act that permits shall be reduced during

droughts.

• Water Harvesting for potable water supply during the rainy season.

Increase in irrigation demand by 20-22%

• Use of water saving crops other than cropping the whole PDA with sugarcane. This also in line with

the current LUSIP diversification strategy.

• The use of water saving irrigation systems where possible

Effects on the Lubovane reservoir

• Irrigation water rationing - During dry season when there is zero diversion and reservoir levels are

low, rationing of water can be an option until the following wet season when floods occurs

• There should be strong environmental attention given to the servitude to minimise erosion and

sedimentation coming from human activity. The sediments load lowers the depth of Dams and hence

their capacity over time.

• Water quality should be monitored as part of demand management. Polluted is not avalable for use.

General

• LUSIP should develop a Climate change adaptation strategy.

• Establishment of a Climate change task team.

Development of a capacity building framework for local Farmers: These interventions would help in

Maximizing local knowledge. The project is well positioned to extend the current new farmer extension

services provided to include imparting knowledge to small-scale farmers in coping with and adapting to

climate change. Additionally, small-scale farmers will in the long-run stand to benefit from inculcating

new techniques that can help mitigate the effects of climate change.

References

J.W. Knox, J.A. Rodríguez Díaz, D.J. Nixon, M. Mkhwanazi (2010): A preliminary assessment of climate

change impacts on sugarcane in Swaziland. Agricultural Systems 103 (2010) 63–72.

Mhlanga (2010). Evaluation of the impact of climate change on the inflow to lubovane reservoir in the

usuthu river basin, Swaziland

Gill M., Smith P. & Wilkinson J. M. (2009). Mitigating climate change: the role of domestic livestock.

animal, 4, pp 323-333.doi:10.1017/S1751731109004662.

Jurandir Zullo Junior, Pinto Silveira H. S., & Assad E. D. (2006). Impact assessment study of climate

change on agricultural zoning. Meteorological Applications, 13, pp 69-80

doi:10.1017/S135048270600257X.

Matondo, J., Peter G. & Msibi K. M., (2004).Evaluation of the impact of climate change on hydrology

and water resources in Swaziland: Part I. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 29:1181–1191.

World Bank Institute, (2010)

http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climx/home.cfm?page=\AnalyseProject\ClimateData

Mabuza M.J et al (2007). The impact of food aid on maize prices and production in Swaziland.

UNEP and UNFCCC (2002). Climate Change Toolkit. www.unep.ch/conventions/ and www.unfccc.int.

Chatelaine, Switzerland.

Conway, G. (2008). The Science of Climate Change in Africa: Impacts and Adaptation

WFP Swaziland Operations Brief of November 2009.  Scholes and Biggs (eds). (2004). Ecosystem Services in Southern. Africa: a regional assessment.