Climate Change Lect

8/14/2019 Climate Change Lect

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Impact of Climatic Changes in theImpact of Climatic Changes in theCoastal BeltCoastal Belt

Dr. Pervez A. Pathan- SDSC; UoS, JamshoroDr. Pervez A. Pathan- SDSC; UoS, Jamshoro2121 stst February, 2010 @ BadinFebruary, 2010 @ Badin

OutlineOutlineDefining Climatic Change & Global Situation AnalysisDefining Climatic Change & Global Situation AnalysisCoastal Belt of Sindh- Indus DeltaCoastal Belt of Sindh- Indus DeltaAnalysis of Threats- Mnn Made InterventionsAnalysis of Threats- Mnn Made InterventionsOpportunitiesOpportunitiesStrategiesStrategies


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The Blue Marble is a famous photograph of the Earth taken on December 7,The Blue Marble is a famous photograph of the Earth taken on December 7,1972, by the crew of the Apollo 17 spacecraft at a distance of about 29,0001972, by the crew of the Apollo 17 spacecraft at a distance of about 29,000

kilometers (18,000 miles). The planet formed 4.54 billion years ago,kilometers (18,000 miles). The planet formed 4.54 billion years ago,


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The ozone layer is a layer in Earth's atmosphere which containsrelatively high concentrations of ozone (O3). This layer absorbs 9399%of the sun's high frequency ultraviolet light, which is potentially damaging

to life on earth.[1] Over 91% of the ozone in Earth's atmosphere ispresent here.[1] It is mainly located in the lower portion of thestratosphere from approximately 10 km to 50 km above Earth, though thethickness varies seasonally and geographically.[2] The ozone layer wasdiscovered in 1913 by the French physicists Charles Fabry and HenriBuisson. Its properties were explored in detail by the British meteorologistG. M. B. Dobson, who developed a simple spectrophotometer (theDobsonmeter) that could be used to measure stratospheric ozone fromthe ground. Between 1928 and 1958 Dobson established a worldwidenetwork of ozone monitoring stations which continues to operate today.The "Dobson unit", a convenient measure of the columnar density of ozone overhead, is named in his honor.


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Part I : Global PerspectiveClimate change is a change in the statisticaldistribution of weather over periods of time that rangefrom decades to millions of years. It can be a changein the average weather or a change in the distributionof weather events around an average (for example,greater or fewer extreme weather events).

Climate change may be limited to a specific region, or may occur across the whole Earth. It can be caused byrecurring, often cyclical climate patterns such as ElNio-Southern Oscillation, or come in the form of moresingular events such as the Dust Bowl.


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A climate cycle is a type of recurring climatepattern that involves natural cyclic variations in the

Earth's surface temperature, as indicated bytemperature proxies found in glacier ice, sea bedsediment, tree ring studies or otherwise.

One difficulty in detecting climate cycles is that theEarth's climate has been changing in non-cyclic waysover most scales of time. For instance, we are now ina period of global warming that seems to beanthropogenic. In a larger time frame, the Earth isemerging from the latest ice age, which means thatclimate has been changing over the last 15,000 years

or so.


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El Nio-Southern Oscillation , often calledsimply ENSO , is a climate pattern that occurs acrossthe tropical Pacific Ocean on average every five years,but over a period which varies from three to sevenyears, and is therefore, widely and significantly, knownas "quasi-periodic." ENSO is best-known for itsassociation with floods, droughts and other weather disturbances in many regions of the world, which varywith each event. Developing countries dependent upon

agriculture and fishing, particularly those bordering thePacific Ocean, are the most affected.


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The 1997 El Nio observed by TOPEX/Poseidon. The white areas off The 1997 El Nio observed by TOPEX/Poseidon. The white areas off the tropical coasts of South and North America inthe tropical coasts of South and North America in


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Global warming is the increase in the averagetemperature of Earth's near-surface air and oceans since themid-20th century and its projected continuation. Global surface

temperature increased 0.74 0.18 C (1.33 0.32 F) betweenthe start and the end of the 20th century. surface temperature islikely to rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 C (2.0 to 11.5 F) during the21st century.

Reasonsincreasing concentrations of greenhouse gases resulting fromhuman activity such as fossil fuel burning and deforestation.

The variations in natural phenomena such as solar radiationand volcanic eruptions had a small cooling effect after 1950.


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Green House EffectsGreen House Effects


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Types of Environmental Pollution1.Air pollution, the release of chemicals and particulates into the atmosphere.Common gaseous air pollutants include carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide,chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and nitrogen oxides produced by industry andmotor vehicles.

2.Water pollution , by the release of waste products and contaminants intosurface runoff into river drainage systems, leaching into groundwater, liquidspills, wastewater discharges, eutrophication and littering.3.Soil contamination occurs when chemicals are released by spill or underground leakage. Among the most significant soil contaminants arehydrocarbons, heavy metals, MTBE,[8] herbicides, pesticides andchlorinated hydrocarbons.4.Littering - waste that people unlawfully dispose of outdoors

5.Radioactive contam ination, resulting from 20th century activities in atomicphysics, such as nuclear power generation and nuclear weapons research,manufacture and deployment. (See alpha emitters and actinides in theenvironment.)6.Noise pollution, which encompasses roadway noise, aircraft noise,

industrial noise as well as high-intensity sonar .


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Effects on EcosystemEffects on Ecosystem

Living things are intimately connected to their Living things are intimately connected to their physical surroundings.physical surroundings.

Ecosystems are affected by changes in:Ecosystems are affected by changes in:

temperaturetemperaturerainfall/moisturerainfall/moisturepH Water Quality StandardspH Water Quality Standards

As a result of climate change, species andAs a result of climate change, species and

ecosystems are experiencing changes in:ecosystems are experiencing changes in: Range Management / Arid AreaRange Management / Arid Areagrowth ratesgrowth rates


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SummerySummeryTemperatures are risingTemperatures are risingSea levels are risingSea levels are risingThe ocean is acidifyingThe ocean is acidifying

Climate change is reflected in water Climate change is reflected in water cycle changes and in extreme weather cycle changes and in extreme weather PollutionPollutionLifeLife


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Part II: Defining Coastal belt- SindhPart II: Defining Coastal belt- Sindh350 kilometers350 kilometers long consisting of the Indus Delta, which is 200long consisting of the Indus Delta, which is 200km long and 50 kilometers wide and extends over an area of km long and 50 kilometers wide and extends over an area of

some 600,000 hectares.some 600,000 hectares.seventeen major seventeen major creeks and extensive mudflats.creeks and extensive mudflats.TheThe deltadelta is characterized by fringing mangrove forests, whichis characterized by fringing mangrove forests, whichare under the control of Sindh Forest Department (280, 470 ha)are under the control of Sindh Forest Department (280, 470 ha)

and Port Qasim Authority (64,4000 ha); and, have beenand Port Qasim Authority (64,4000 ha); and, have beendeclared as protected forests. Substantial resources throughdeclared as protected forests. Substantial resources throughwetlands, forests, agriculture, and environment.wetlands, forests, agriculture, and environment.TheThe Indus River DeltaIndus River Delta forms where the Indus River flows into theforms where the Indus River flows into theArabian Sea, creating a complex system of swamps, streamsArabian Sea, creating a complex system of swamps, streamsand mangrove forests. Reduced river flows are threatening theand mangrove forests. Reduced river flows are threatening thesurvival of many species found here, including one of the world'ssurvival of many species found here, including one of the world'srarest dolphins.rarest dolphins.


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Indus DeltaIndus Delta

S No District Taluka Population


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S No District Taluka Population

1 Badin Badin 121,250

Golarchi 52,680

2 Thatta Mirpur Sakro 198,852Ghorabari 105,482

Keti Bunder 25,700

Shah Bunder 100,575

Jati 123,957

Karochaan 25,656

3 Karachi

Karachi West Kiamari Town 38,055

Malir Port Qasim 75,089

All 867,296

h l lSi i P i h C l B l


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Situation at Present in the Coastal BeltSituation at Present in the Coastal Belt

Accessibility Accommodation* Communication*

Electricity* Drinkingwater*

Security Scenery

Bhambore 3 5 5 3 2 2 3

Dodo Soomro 3 5 5 5 5 4 4

Roopa Mari 4 5 5 5 5 5 4

Mai Rarhi 4 5 5 5 5 5 4Syed Noor Shah4 5 5 5 5 5 4

Raja Nand Kot 4 5 4 5 4 5 4

Mugher Bean 3 5 2 2 2 2 1

Shah Yaqeeq 4 4 3 2 3 2 1

Rank: 1 = Excellent 2 = Good 3 = Fair 4 = Poor\ 5 = Facility Not Available (within 5 kms)


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Assessing Impact1.Droughts since 1999 are one example that caused sharpdeclines in water tables and dried up wetlands, severely

degrading ecosystems.

2.Pakistan contributes least to global warming one 35th of the worlds average of carbon dioxide emissions

temperatures in the countrys coastal areas have risen sincethe early 1900s from 0.6 to 1 degree centigrade .

3.Precipitation has decreased 10 to 15 per cent in the coastal belt andhyper arid plains over the last 40 years while there is an increase insummer and winter rains in northern Pakistan.

4.Health of millions would also be affected with diarrhea diseasesassociated with floods and drought becoming more prevalent.


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5 Pakistan as the 12th most vulnerable country in the world. lack of freshwater and human deforestation, mangrove forest cover in theIndus delta has reduced from 260,000 hectares to only 80,000.

6 sea has occupied 1.3 million acres in the two districts and it continuesto eat 80 acres a day.

7. Six sub-divisions of Thatta-- Ghora Baari, Kharo Chaan, Keti Bunder,Shah Bunder and Jat-- are the worst hit. These areas were historicallyprosperous, engaged in extensive agriculture and trade activities.

Now these areas are counted among the poorest. The drastic changehas not come overnight. A significant part of over two million people of the two districts has been paying the price of wrong policies.

8. The Water Accord-1991 prescribed at least 10 million acre feet (MAF)water to flow below Kotri barrage to maintain fragile eco system of

Indus Delta. But only during high flood years when surplus was to bedrained below Kotri any way.


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9. The annual average flow below Kotri during 1999-2004 wasapproximately 6.8 MAF and during extremely dry years of 2000-2003 it was only two MAF. The year 2001 shows thelowest flow which was less than one MAF.

10.Creeks of Arabian Sea have become more saline than thesea itself.

11.Until 1960s land was advancing into sea at the rate of four

km per century but now the course has reversed and near two million acres of land has gone under sea in the matter of few decades.

12.There were 16 major creeks making up the original delta butdue to reduced flows below Kotri, only the area betweenHajamro and Kharak creeks now receives water from theIndus, with one main outlet to the sea, Khobar Creek.


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The flow pattern below Kotri during post Tarbela Dam -1947 to 2001The flow pattern below Kotri during post Tarbela Dam -1947 to 2001


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Summery: Changes in the Coastal BeltSummery: Changes in the Coastal Belt

Effects of Global WarmingEffects of Global Warming

Water ScarcityWater ScarcityRainfallRainfallSea IntrusionSea IntrusionLoss of Sweat Water AreasLoss of Sweat Water Areas

AgricultureAgricultureLife- NatureLife- Nature

Infrastructure; Health; Education; PovertyInfrastructure; Health; Education; PovertyThreat to CivilizationThreat to Civilization

Environmental and hydrological changesEnvironmental and hydrological changesCreeksCreeksLifeLife


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Part III: OpportunitiesPart III: OpportunitiesFishingFishingMangrove ForestsMangrove ForestsOil & Gas and Other Natural ResourcesOil & Gas and Other Natural ResourcesBeachesBeachesSea Ports and ShoresSea Ports and Shores

People; Culture & HeritagePeople; Culture & HeritageLakes & ReservoirsLakes & ReservoirsTrade & CommerceTrade & CommerceMigratory BirdsMigratory Birds


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Historical Sites- OpportunitiesHistorical Sites- OpportunitiesMizar Issa TarkhanMizar Issa TarkhanDijgrr Mosque ThattaDijgrr Mosque Thatta

Shah Jehan MosqueShah Jehan MosqueNecropolis of Makli / Makli Hill (Dargah Mai Makli)Necropolis of Makli / Makli Hill (Dargah Mai Makli)Thatta Graveyards / Sonda GraveyardThatta Graveyards / Sonda GraveyardFort (Qila) Kalan KotFort (Qila) Kalan Kot

Bhambore; Dargah of Luari Sharif; Saman Sarkar;Bhambore; Dargah of Luari Sharif; Saman Sarkar;Ghulam Shah QadriGhulam Shah QadriSajjan Sai; Dodo Soomro; Sawan Fakir Sajjan Sai; Dodo Soomro; Sawan Fakir Shah Triat Ahmed Rajo; Roopa Mari; Mai Rarhi; SyedShah Triat Ahmed Rajo; Roopa Mari; Mai Rarhi; SyedNoor ShahNoor Shah

Raja Nind Kot; Mughar Bhean; Shah Yaqeeq; Roto KotRaja Nind Kot; Mughar Bhean; Shah Yaqeeq; Roto KotChamkandi siteChamkandi site


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Part IV: Future Actions & Strategies

1.In 1992, the Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCC) was adopted at the UN Conferenceon Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro.The main task for the parties to the Convention is tolower their greenhouse gases emission to the 1990levels by 2000. According to the Kyoto Protocol(December 1997) developed countries should reducetheir greenhouse gases emissions by 5% from 1990levels, the EU by 8%, and other countries 5% to 8%by 2010.


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2. Environmental policy is any course of actiondeliberately taken or not taken to manage humanactivities with a view to prevent, reduce, or mitigateharmful effects on nature and natural resources, andensuring that man-made changes to the environmentdo not have harmful effects on humans in presentand future

3. Training of coastal communities4. Government measures to handle disasters5. At least 15 MAF water should reach mangroves to

maintain their present state and improve their

environmental conditions.6. A comprehensive study should be conducted toassess ecological and socio-economic impactresulting from the dams and barrages beforedeciding construction of new big dams.


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7. Construction of Dikes to stop sea intrusion as animmediate measure; however it would bring onlypartial relief by stopping surface intrusion. Subsurface intrusion and seepage through dikes wouldcontinue unless sufficient flow is not maintainedbelow Kotri barrage.

8. Protection of the Indus river dolphin (Platanistaminor) is one of the world's rarest mammal andmost endangered cetaceans. Only about 1,000 of this unique species exist.

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Climate Change Lect