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This report presents an overview of the impacts that climate change is likely to have on Saint John over the next century, and how well adapted the City is to deal with these impacts.
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AC AP SAINT J O HN
C LIM ATE C HANGE IM PAC TS& AD AP TATIO N IN SAINT J O HNNE W B RU NSW IC K , 20 0 8
Climate Change Impacts & AdaptationClimate Change Impacts & AdaptationClimate Change Impacts & AdaptationClimate Change Impacts & Adaptation
Saint John, New Brunswick, CanadaSaint John, New Brunswick, CanadaSaint John, New Brunswick, CanadaSaint John, New Brunswick, Canada
Climate Change Impacts & AdaptationClimate Change Impacts & AdaptationClimate Change Impacts & AdaptationClimate Change Impacts & Adaptation
Saint John, New Brunswick, CanadaSaint John, New Brunswick, CanadaSaint John, New Brunswick, CanadaSaint John, New Brunswick, Canada
i
Climate Change Impacts & AdaptationClimate Change Impacts & AdaptationClimate Change Impacts & AdaptationClimate Change Impacts & Adaptation
Saint John, New Brunswick, CanadaSaint John, New Brunswick, CanadaSaint John, New Brunswick, CanadaSaint John, New Brunswick, Canada
ii
Atlantic Coastal Action Program Saint John, 2008.
Author:
Ian Reeves, MSc, Climate Change Specialist, ACAP Saint John
Advisor: Tim Vickers, MSc, Executive Director, ACAP Saint John
For more information, contact:
Atlantic Coastal Action Program Saint John 76 Germain Street
PO Box 6878, Station A Saint John, NB
E2L 4S3 Canada 506.652.2227
www.acapsj.com
iii
Acknowledgements
This project would not have been possible without the generous financial support provided by a grant from the New Brunswick Environmental Trust Fund.
ACAP Saint John would like to acknowledge the contributions of a number of people who helped contribute to this report through meetings with ACAP staff and providing data. We are grateful for their time and insight into this report. We also thank those
who provided data and analysis for the reports.
Stephen King, Environmental Management Services, Halifax Regional Municipality
Gary Lines, Climate Change Meteorologist, Environment Canada, Atlantic Region
Kyle McKenzie, Climate Change Specialist, Environment Canada, Atlantic Region
Wayne Barchard, ACAP Window, Environment Canada, Atlantic Region
Lucie Vincent, Climate Researcher, Meteorological Services, Environment Canada
Yves Leger, Geographic Information Systems, Planning and Development, City of Saint John
Final editing was provided by Tim Vickers and Gay Wittrien of ACAP Saint John
iv
Table of Contents
1. Introduction 1
Overview 1
Climate Change 2
Climate Impacts 9
Climate Change and Cities 12
Climate Change and Saint John 14
2. Saint John Climate: Historical trends and projec tions 15
Introduction 15
Methods 16
Historical Analysis 16
Projected Future Climate Scenarios 17
Results 19
Trends in Historical Temperature Records 19
Trends in Historic Precipitation Record 22
Projected Future Temperature and Precipitation Scenarios 24
Discussion and Conclusions 27
Temperature 27
Precipitation 28
Conclusions 29
3. Sea Level Rise in Saint John 30
Introduction 34
Methods 34
Historic and Projected Changes in Sea Level 34
Storm Surge Modeling 35
v
Results 36
Historic Tide Record 36
Projected Changes in Sea Level 36
Storm Surge 37
Discussion and Conclusions 39
Sea Level Rise 39
Storm Surge 40
Conclusions 41
4. Adaptation 43
Introduction 43
Vulnerability Assessments 46
Adaptation Options 51
Education 52
Coastal/Inland Flooding 52
Water Supply 53
Health 54
Recommendations 55
5. Literature Cited 58
6. Appendices 65
Appendix A 65
Appendix B 67
About the Author 70
vi
List of Figures Figure 1.1 – Timeline of selected major events in the history of climate change and global warming. 4 Figure 1.2 – Overview of the components of the climate system, including their processes and interactions. (Source: Le Treut et al. 2007) 5
Figure 1.3 – Changes in the concentrations and radiative forcing by a) carbon dioxide, b) methane and c) nitrous oxide over the last 20,000 years as reconstructed from ice core and direct atmospheric measurements. Figure d) shows the rate of change for the combined radiative forcing of all the greenhouse gases, with the inset showing a higher resolution detail of a decrease in carbon dioxide reported in the ice records from the 1600’s. (Source: Solomon et al. 2007) 6
Figure 1.4 – Changes in global temperature demonstrated through A) the instrumental temperature record of the last 150 years and B) reconstructed temperature records over the last millennia where the black line represents the instrumental record. (Source: Rhode 2007) 7
Figure 1.5 – Global average sea level rise 1990 to 2100 as developed from seven atmosphere ocean general climate models taking into account thermal expansion and land ice changes and adding the effects of permafrost changes and sediment deposition. Lines indicate the average of all seven climate models for each of the emissions scenarios noted in the legend (see appendix for emissions definitions). Please note that these projections do not take into account the changes in ice – dynamic changes in the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. (Source: Folland et al. 2001) 8 Figure 2.1 – Trends in the mean annual A) maximum and B) minimum temperature from Saint John, NB from 1895 to 2006. Baselines are set at the mean values for the entire record. 20
Figure 2.2 –Trend in the mean of the maximum summer temperature in Saint John, NB from 1895 to 2006. Baseline is set at the mean value for the entire record. 21
Figure 2.3 – Trends in the total annual precipitation (mm) from Saint John, NB from 1895 to 2006 and a five year moving average from 1897-2001. Values calculated from the sum of all daily precipitation values. 22
Figure 2.4 - Projected changes in A) maximum and B) minimum temperature in Saint John, NB for three future tri-decade periods [2020 (2010-2039), 2050 (2040-2069) and 2080 (2070-2099)]. Results are SDSM models using output from the Canadian Climate Model (CGCM2) and the UK Hadley Model (HadCM3) using the B2 scenario as described by the IPCC (2000). 24
vii
Figure 2.5 – Projected future % change of total annual precipitation in Saint John, NB for three future tri-decade periods [2020 (2010-2039), 2050 (2040-2069) and 2080 (2070-2099)]. Results are SDSM projections from using output from the Canadian Climate Model (CGCM2) and the UK Hadley Model (HadCM3) using the B2 scenario as described by the IPCC (2000). 25
Figure 2.6 – Comparison of historical precipitation return periods for a 24 hour precipitation event with projections for future return periods. The time periods correspond to the following dates; Historical (1961-1990), 2020s (2010-2039), 2050s (2040-2069) and 2080s (2070-2099) Projections come from SDSM models with data provided by A) the Canadian Climate Model (CGCM2) and B) the UK Hadley model (HadCM3) run using the B2 scenario as described by the IPCC (2000). 26
Figure 3.1 – Areas of the Canadian coast that are currently submerging Source: Shaw et al. 1998. 31
Figure 3.2 – Sensitivity of the Atlantic coasts to sea level rise, with the inset showing a closer view of the region around Saint John and the Bay of Fundy. Red zones indicate high risk, Yellow indicates moderate risk and green indicates low risk. Source: Shaw et al. 1998. 33
Figure 3.3 – Observed sea level change from the historic tide gauge record from Saint John, NB. Baseline is set at the mean for the historical record (4.369 m Datum). 36
Figure 3.4 - Mean sea level changes in Saint John, NB. The solid blue line indicates a reconstruction of the annual mean sea level from the tide gauge record. The dashed blue line indicates projected relative sea level rise (SLR) as a result of crustal subsidence and the solid green line indicates the projected sea level change from the combined values of relative SLR (crustal subsidence), actual SLR (thermal expansion) and tidal amplification. The baseline value is set at the mean for the historical record (4.369 m Datum). 37
Figure 3.5 – Flood risk map for an approximately 1 m storm surge for key areas within the City of Saint John in the year 2100 assuming sea level rise of 0.7 m. Areas within the yellow for Inner Harbour, Saint’s Rest Marsh and Red Head Road are flood lines a 1 m storm surge landing at MHHW taking into account a 0.7 m sea level rise. The Marsh creek flood map is from Drisdelle (2006) based on LiDAR altimetry data showing flood lines for a 4.6 m sea level in the year 2100, which roughly corresponds to 8.8 m (Chart Datum) 38 Figure 3.6 – Comparison of the former extent of the Great Marsh and the resulting flood levels from a storm surge in the year 2100 that results in a 4.6 m water level (orthometric). 42
viii
Figure 4.1 – Examples of locations in Saint John that are currently prone to inland flooding during heavy rain events. The top two pictures were from precipitation events in the winter of 2008 and the bottom two pictures were from precipitation events in the summer of 2006. 48
Figure 4.2 – Examples of some of the areas within the city that will become increasingly vulnerable to storm surge as a result of the impacts of sea level rise over the next 100 years. 50
Figure 4.3 – Simple framework outlining the major steps within the adaptation process. 56
ix
List of Tables Table 1.1 – Definitions for key terms necessary to understand the climate change and global warming. Definitions adapted from the Pew Centre Glossary (www.pewclimate.org), the US Environmental Protection Agency Glossary of climate change terms (www.epa.gov) and Environment Canada (www.climatechange.gc.ca). 3 Table 1.2 – Examples of the potential impacts of climate change on various sectors in Canada. 10
Table 1.3 – List of major cities that implemented climate change programs involving assessments of climate change impacts and measures to reduce the vulnerability of the city. 13 Table 2.1 – Trends in the annual and seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures in Saint John from 1895-2007. R2 refers to the closeness of fit, E refers to the estimated standard error, and p indicates statistical significance. 19
Table 2.2 – Differences in the mean maximum and minimum temperatures in Saint John, NB before 1950 and after 1950. 21
Table 2.3 – Historic trend data for five year moving averages of total annual and seasonal precipitation for the City of Saint John from 1897 to 2005. R2 refers to the closeness of fit, E refers to the estimated standard error, and p indicates statistical significance. 23
Table 2.4 - Historic annual and seasonal trend data for days with high precipitation, low precipitation and no precipitation in Saint John from 1895 to 2007. R2 refers to the closeness of fit, E refers to the estimated standard error, and p indicates statistical significance. 23
Table 3.1 – Summary of sea level rise projections for the Saint John region, broken down into additive components. MSL – Mean sea level; MHHW – Mean higher high water mark; PSHW – Perigean spring high water mark. 35
Table 4.1 – Summary of different types of adaptation and the method of differentiation. (Source: Burton 2008) 44
Table 4.2 – Examples of weather related disasters in Canada and estimated cost of the damages. 45
Table 4.3 – Key sectors for climate change impact assessments, as identified from assessments carried out by various other cities during the development of adaptation strategies. 51
Table B2 – Current provincial and territorial strategies, initiatives and best practices for addressing impacts and adaptation to climate change. 67
1
1. INTRODUCTION
Overview
A recent consensus among the scientific community has strongly suggested that
climate change is occurring (Oreskes 2004) and that human activities are influencing
the global climate (National Academy of Sciences 2001, IPCC 2007, Kerr 2007). This
contention raises concerns as to the potential effects that a changing climate could have
on municipalities around the world. Regardless of future changes in anthropogenic
greenhouse gas emissions, many cities will face increasing socioeconomic and physical
risks resulting from increasing temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns,
accelerated sea level rise and the trickle down effects associated with the above.
These effects will have significant implications, both positive and negative, on the built,
natural and human systems associated with both urban and rural communities (Medhi
et al. 2006). This report presents an assessment of the vulnerability of the City of Saint
John, New Brunswick, Canada to the risks associated with climate change, and
explores adaptive strategies that could be implemented to reduce the negative impacts
of future climate change.
Coastal cities are at particular risk from accelerated sea level rise and even
greater risk from severe weather damage (storm surges, hurricanes, etc.). The
Geological Survey of Canada has concluded that more than 7000 km of Canadian
coastline are at risk from rising sea level, including large portions of the Maritime
provinces (Shaw et al. 1998). Many coastal municipalities will become increasingly
vulnerable to the socio-economic risks of climate change, including property loss, loss
of city infrastructure, and increased flood risks. Although many Canadian municipalities
have taken a strong leadership role in promoting greenhouse gas reduction (for more
info see the Federation for Canadian Municipalities Partners for Climate Protection
Program, www.fcm.ca), it is only recently that municipalities have begun to address the
potential impacts of climate change and the challenges of adapting to a changing
environment. Global climate change and its various associated issues are the current
subject of considerable scientific research; however, there is still much that is not
understood. Climate prediction models and historical analyses concentrate heavily on
2
global trends and averages, leaving numerous questions concerning the regional and
local impacts of climate change. Predicting local impacts of climate change is complex
and difficult, due the inherent variability associated with local weather patterns, but is
necessary in order to both evaluate the future risks municipalities are likely to face, and
to identify what adaptive strategies could be implemented.
This report presents an overview of the impacts that climate change is likely to
have on Saint John over the next century, and how well adapted the City is to deal with
these impacts. The first chapter presents an analysis of historic climate and tide
records to detect past trends and develop projections of trends during the next century.
The report then utilizes these projected trends (especially as they pertain to sea-level
rise and storm surges) to identify high risk (i.e. vulnerable) areas in the City and to
predict what City infrastructure is likely to be affected. The vulnerability analysis is then
used to evaluate the adaptive capacity of the City, and to subsequently present
strategies to help the City prepare and adapt to the potential effects of climate change.
Examples of tools and resources, developed in other municipalities, are also provided.
The overall objective of this report was to compile all of the available information on
climate impacts and adaptation and present it in a format that was applicable to the City
of Saint John. It was intended that this approach to highlighting sustainable and realistic
adaptive strategies could help Saint John face the challenges of climate change.
Climate Change
Contrary to popular belief, the idea that humans are contributing to global
warming has been around for a long time (Figure 1.1), although it is only in more recent
times that climate change is being recognized as an imminent threat to the global
community. Global warming and climate change has been the subject of debate for
numerous years, but increasing supporting evidence has led to a strong consensus
among the scientific community that climate change is real and poses an imminent
threat (Oreskes 2004, Arblaster et al. 2007).
3
Climate change refers to changes in the long-term patterns of weather events,
including annual precipitation, mean temperature, and storm frequencies. In order to
understand climate change it is important to understand the difference between climate
and weather (Table 1.1), as well as understanding the basics of the global climate
system. The climate system is complex and comprised of numerous components
including the hydrosphere (oceans, rivers and lakes), the atmosphere, the biosphere
(both terrestrial and marine) and the land surface (Figure 1.2). How these components
interact with each other (e.g. the hydrologic cycle, the carbon cycle and atmospheric
circulation) also comprise a large part of the climate system. Since the industrial
revolution, humanity’s increasing footprint on the climate system has added new
complexity through rapidly increasing emissions of greenhouse gases and the alteration
of the land surface and biosphere for forestry, agriculture and urban development.
Table 1.1 – Definitions for key terms necessary to understand climate change and global warming. Definitions are adapted from the Pew Centre Glossary (www.pewclimate.org), the US Environmental Protection Agency Glossary of climate change terms (www.epa.gov), and Environment Canada (www.climatechange.gc.ca).
Term Definition
Climate The long-term pattern (decades to millennia) of weather of a region (or global), encompassing weather patterns, storm frequency, temperature patterns.
Albedo The ratio of light from the sun that gets reflected by the surface if the earth to light that is absorbed/received by the earth’s surface. Unreflected light is absorbed and converts to heat that warms the planet.
Carbon sink Processes that remove more CO2 from the atmosphere than they emit, such as forests and ocean habitats.
General Circulation Model
A computer model incorporating the basic dynamics and physics of the global climate system and interactions between the major components (ie; atmosphere, oceans, land surfaces) used to simulate climate variability
Greenhouse Effect The natural process that allows radiation from the sun to enter our atmosphere, and prevents the infra-red radiation (heat) to escape from the lower atmosphere and land surfaces to keep the planet warm and hospitable
Greenhouse Gas Gas that absorbs infra red radiation in the atmosphere and contributes to heating the planet. Examples include; water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons.
Radiative Forcing The change in balance between the radiation (heat) coming in to the atmosphere and radiation going out of the atmosphere, positive forcing results in warming of the system and negative forcing results in a cooling of the system.
Sequestration The removal atmospheric CO2 through biological (eg; trees, plants) or geological processes (eg; storage in underground reservoirs)
Thermal expansion Expansion of a substance as a result of the addition of heat. This is particularly relevant with respect to the expansion of the world’s oceans as global temperature increases
Weather Describes the short-term (hourly, daily) state of the atmosphere and can be drastically different over short distances or period of time.
4
2005 - Kyoto
treaty goes
into effect,
signed by all
industrial
nations except
the USA and is
the warmest
year on record
1800 1900 2000
1800 - Beginning of
Industrial
Revolution
1859 -Discovery
of greenhouse
gases (J. Tyndall)
1896 – First
calculation of
human influence
on global
warming as a
result of CO2
emissions (S.
Arrhenius)
1920-1925 -
Opening of Texas
and Persian Oil
Fields
1934 - Analysis of
data from
weather stations
across the USA
show warming
trend since 1865
(US Weather
Bureau)
1938 - Theory
that CO2
greenhouse
warming is
occuring and
could lead to a
self sustaining
warmer climate
(G.S. Callendar)
1957 - Discovery
that the ocean
will not readily
absorb surplus
CO2 (R. Revelle)
1850 1950
1960 - Accurate
measurement of
CO2 in the
atmosphere
shows a rise of
315 ppm/year
(C.D. Keeling)
1970 - First Earth
Day
1971 - Study of
Man’s Impact on
Climate (SMIC)
predicts potential
danger of rapid
and serious global
change caused by
human activities
1976 - CFC’s,
methane and
ozone are
identifed as
additional
greenhouse gases
1979 - World
Climate Research
Programme
launched
1985 - Villach
conference of
climate scientists
recommends
global treaty
1988 - Establishment
of the IPCC and the
Toronto conference
on the changing
atmosphere
1992 - Earth
Summit in Rio de
Janeiro
establishes
United Nations
Framework on
Convention on
Climate Change
1997 - Delegates
from 160
countries agree
to the Kyoto
Protocol
2001 - 3rd IPCC
report states that
global warming is
very likely
Figure 1.1 – Timeline of selected major events in the history of climate change and global warming.
5
Global climate change occurs when the amount of energy (i.e. heat) within the climate
system changes. Warming can occur from an increase in heat introduced into the
system or from a decrease in the amount of heat released from the climate system.
Figure 1.2 – Overview of the components of the climate system, including their processes and interactions. (Source: Le Treut et al. 2007)
Water vapour is the most abundant greenhouse gas (responsible for roughly
60% of the greenhouse effect), however the greenhouse gases responsible for the other
40% of the greenhouse effect are of greatest concern in terms of climate change as
many of these other greenhouse gases are byproducts of our fossil fuel based
economy. Concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide
(N2O) are significantly higher than pre-industrial values found in ice core data (Figure
1.3), with CO2 increasing by ~ 35%, CH4 increasing by over 100%, and N2O increasing
by ~ 18% since the late 1700’s (Solomon et al. 2007). Increases in greenhouse gases
lead to an increase in the amount of solar energy trapped within the atmosphere and
contribute to the increase in global temperatures detected over the last decade.
6
Figure 1.3 – Changes in the concentrations and radiative forcing by a) carbon dioxide, b) methane and c) nitrous oxide over the last 20,000 years as reconstructed from ice core and direct atmospheric measurements. Figure d) shows the rate of change for the combined radiative forcing of all the greenhouse gases, with the inset showing a higher resolution detail of a decrease in carbon dioxide reported in the ice records from the 1600’s. (Source: Solomon et al. 2007)
A wide range of studies have indicated that the observed changes in climate patterns
cannot be explained by natural factors alone and are best explained by anthropogenic
influences (Le Treut et al. 2007). The knowledge and understanding of anthropogenic
influences on climate has increased substantially in recent years, and scientists have
reported that there is over a 95% likelihood that anthropogenic influences on climate
have a net warming effect (Solomon et al. 2007), which has contributed to the rise in
global temperature detected over the last 1000 years (Figure 1.4).
7
A
B
Figure 1.4 – Changes in global temperature demonstrated through A) the instrumental temperature record of the last 150 years and B) reconstructed temperature records over the last millennia where the black line represents the instrumental record. (Source: Rhode 2007)
Any change in global climate could have cascading and far-reaching ecological,
environmental, social and economic effects, and some of these impacts are already
being felt (see Kerr 2007). Slight changes in global temperature can activate feedback
loops and stimulate further changes in climate (eg; changes in severe weather patterns
and shifts in precipitations and drought patterns) as well as leading to a global rise in
8
Range of the averages of all 35 emissions scenarios
Range of all emission scenarios including land-ice uncertainty
Range of all 35 emissions scenarios
sea level as a result of thermal expansion, melting of glaciers and loss of Antarctic ice
(Figure 1.5). It must be noted that most models depicting global sea level rise do not
take into account changes in the ice dynamics from the Antarctic and Greenland ice
sheets. Increased temperature and rising sea level are only the tip of the iceberg with
respect to the impacts of global climate change. The recent IPCC report (IPCC 2007)
indicates that even if anthropogenic emissions were to cease immediately, we would
still experience many of the projected climate impacts. As such, it is necessary to not
only mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, but adapt to the pending impacts of climate
change.
Figure 1.5 – Global average sea level rise 1990 to 2100 as developed from seven atmosphere ocean general climate models taking into account thermal expansion and land ice changes and adding the effects of permafrost changes and sediment deposition. Lines indicate the average of all seven climate models for each of the emissions scenarios noted in the legend (see appendix for emissions definitions). Please note that these projections do not take into account the changes in ice – dynamic changes in the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. (Source: Folland et al. 2001)
9
Climate Impacts
Evidence is growing that the increases in temperature (observed both globally
and regionally) over the past few decades are having significant effects on a diverse set
of physical and biological systems. Numerous regional changes in biological and
physical processes, such as changes in rainfall intensity, shrinking of glaciers, changes
in flowering dates of trees and shifts in lake ice freeze and break-up dates have been
linked to climate change and documented in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report
(IPCC Working Group II 2001). It is difficult to identify clear climate impacts, as many
impacts have multiple causal factors, but significant associations between regional
climate change and observed changes in physical and biological systems have been
identified on every continent (White et. al. 2001). More recent analyses are finding
more concrete quantitative evidence of climate impacts on biological and physical
systems such as, latitudinal and elevational shifts in the range of flora and fauna, shifts
in spring peak discharge times, lengthening of growing seasons, earlier fish migration in
streams, and warming of surface waters (Parry et al. 2007). In recent years, there has
been a greater focus on impacts to the human environment and on identifying how
regional climate changes will affect human infrastructure and built systems.
The impacts of climate change vary regionally and will likely have substantial
repercussions within Canada (Table 1.2). The sheer magnitude of Canada coupled with
its diverse geo-physical makeup, necessitates a greater emphasis be placed on
understanding how climate change will affect different regions within the country. All
three levels of government (Federal, Provincial and Municipal) have begun to address
climate change, however much of the focus has been on mitigating greenhouse gas
emissions. Reducing emissions is important and will play a critical role in determining
the future climate change; however, even if emissions were stabilized within the next
two years, climate change will continue due to the long residence time of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere and the lag between emissions reductions and the stabilization
of temperature and ocean levels (Snover et al. 2007).
10
Table 1.2 – Examples of the potential impacts of climate change on various sectors in Canada. Modified from: Lemmen and Warren 2004 Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: A Canadian Perspective.
Water Resources
Agri culture Forestry Fisheries Coastal Zone
Transportation Human Health
Increased likelihood of severe drought and aridity in prairie regions
Changes in crop yields across the country, increases and decreases in productivity
Changes in species diversity
Decreases in Atlantic marine, southern freshwater and southern Pacific marine fisheries
Increased coastal erosion
Changes in length and quality of construction season
Increases in health effects related to air pollution (eg; asthma, cancer, etc.)
Reduced hydroelectric potential
Soil degradation through erosion, chemical depletion, water saturation and solute accumulation
Northward shift of eco-zones
Increases in the Arctic marine, northern Pacific marine, and Northern freshwater fisheries
More extensive coastal inundation and loss of coastal habitat
Supply problems to northern communities as a result of loss of ice roads and melting permafrost
Increased skin damage and skin cancer from exposure to ultraviolet rays
Decrease in the snow cover
Increased weed growth and disease outbreaks
Local extinctions will occur
Changes in food nutrient supply and predator-prey dynamic
Higher storm-surge flooding and increased coastal erosion
Reduction in mobility as a result of increased landslide and avalanche activity
Increases in the outbreaks of infectious diseases, such as Giardia, west Nile
Changes in ice freeze-up and break-up
Longer growing seasons
Increase in forest fire activity and longer season
Reduced growth rates and productivity of shellfish
Higher sea surface temperature
Reduced payload in some of the major shipping routes
Increased occupational health hazards
Increased spring flood risks
Accelerated maturation rates
Increased land use conflicts
Increase in toxic algal blooms
Damage to coastal infrastructure and property loss
Increased damage to causeways and bridges
Increases in loss of productivity
Saline intrusions into aquifers resulting in loss of potable water
Decreased herbicide and pesticide efficacy
Changes in forest productivity
Changes in lake clarity and stratification
Increased length of shipping season
Increased heat stress periods and associated risks
Thinner ice cover and an increase in ice-free season and of open water
Possibility of growing new crops
Changes in timber supply and value
Migration of mobile species as water temperatures change
Loss of cultural resources and values
Increasing evaporation rates and decline in water levels
Increased insect damages
Increased risk potential from severe storms and tsunamis
11
The research generated through the IPCC Working Group II has led to significant
advances in climate impacts and adaptation research, with most of the research and
work on climate change impacts focusing on individual sectors of the national or global
economy, such as agriculture, forestry, transportation, fisheries and water resources.
The Canadian government has focused much of its research efforts on these economic
sectors, but has begun assessing climate impacts on human health and well being and
the expected impacts on Canada’s coastal zone (Environment Canada 1998, Natural
Resources 2004). All areas of the country, as well as all economic sectors will be
affected, positively or negatively, by climate change in the future. General consensus is
that the majority of climate impacts will be negative and the focus of most research has
been on the potential decreases in the food supply or resources at a national scale.
However, recent studies examining the integrated impacts of climate at smaller regional
scales indicate that the combined impacts of sea level change, temperature change,
and shifting storm patterns on infrastructure and human health may be of greater
magnitude than previously thought, particularly because infrastructure and population
are concentrated in urban areas (Ruth and Kirshen 2002).
An assessment of the regional impacts of climate change identified the following
four key regions that are likely to suffer the most as a result of climate change; 1)
coastal regions of the Atlantic Provinces, 2) the poor and agriculture dependent parts of
the Prairie Provinces, 3) the Arctic regions, and 4) municipal and urban areas across
the country (Chiotti 1998). Municipalities (both large and small) contain a concentration
of infrastructure, including built systems (e.g. water and sewage networks), natural
systems (e.g. urban watersheds), and human systems (e.g. health care) that are
sensitive to changes in climate. It is at the municipal level that more effort can be
directed towards integrated approaches to studying climate impacts and beginning to
address the need to adapt.
12
Climate Change and Cities
Climate change will have severe impacts on municipalities across the country
and will have a variety of both positive and negative impacts on municipal infrastructure.
Cities have been at the forefront of the climate change movement for a long time, with
many cities developing comprehensive greenhouse gas mitigation strategies well in
advance of any national or provincial legislation. However, there are few cities that
have looked extensively at the impacts climate change will have on their city or taken
steps to reduce the vulnerability of their infrastructure and residents. While mitigating
greenhouse gases is extremely important, it is evident that cities will experience climate
change in the future and it is vital that cities take steps to reduce the vulnerability of
residents to the impacts of climate change.
Cities concentrate people, buildings, and transportation infrastructure in small
areas, making them vulnerable to the effects of climate change, especially extreme
weather events. Cities are built and designed on infrastructure systems and services
that are very sensitive to climate, (e.g.; flood control, water supply, wastewater
management, energy, and transportation) and many are interrelated (Kirshen et al.
2004). There are numerous features within modern cities that increase the vulnerability
and the risks associated with climate change (e.g.; asphalt and other impermeable
surfaces, combined sewers, centralized powers sources), resulting in a built
environment within cities that is not only at risk from climate change, but in some cases
can exacerbate the effects (Ligeti et al. 2007). Cities must account for how climate
change could affect the safety, quality of life and development within their community.
Coastal cities, in particular, are at risk from the effects of climate change due to
the effects of sea level rise. Sea level rise is one of the most fundamental risks for
municipalities and human settlements. Approximately half of the world’s population lives
near the coast and population density near the coast is about three times higher than
the global average (Nicholls et al. 2007). Many coastal cities are particularly vulnerable
to the physical and socio-economic risks associated with sea-level rise and the resulting
change in storm surge levels. Much of the current urban infrastructure in coastal cities
has been designed according to historic weather patterns and any change in storm
13
surge patterns or climate can place these at risk of damage. For example, many cities
design storm water systems by examining precipitation and storm surge return periods.
Changes in climate and sea level can alter these patterns resulting in storm surge levels
higher and more frequent than anticipated.
Until recently, most cities have focused on climate change strategies on
mitigation, which focuses on reducing greenhouse emissions through energy efficiency,
increasing public transportation, reducing urban sprawl and renewable energy programs
(Ligeti et al. 2007). While mitigation is still important, it is evident that we will experience
climate change effects over the next 100 years even if greenhouse gas emissions were
halted today, due to the fact that these gases are already in the atmosphere and can
take up to 80 years for them to dissipate in the atmosphere. Recently, a few major
cities have begun to develop comprehensive climate change strategies that address the
need for adaptation, and have started the process of assessing how vulnerable the
cities are and what steps can be taken to reduce the risks (Table 1.3).
Table 1.3 – List of major cities that implemented climate change programs involving assessments of climate change impacts and measures to reduce the vulnerability of the city.
City Programmes
London, UK
London Climate Change Partnership (in partnership with the UK Climate Impacts Programme)
www.london.gov.uk/climatechangepartnership/
New York, USA Climate Change Information Resources, New York Metropolitan Region
http://ccir.ciesin.columbia.edu/nyc/
Boston, USA Climate’s Long Term Impacts on Metro Boston (Climb Project)
www.tufts.edu/tie/climb/
Halifax, Canada Climate Sustainable Mitigation and Adaptation Risk Toolkit (Climate SMART)
www.halifax.ca/Climate/index.html
Vancouver,
Canada
Cool Vancouver Task Force and the City of Vancouver Sustainability http://vancouver.ca/sustainability/climate_protection.htm
Seattle, USA Seattle Climate Action NOW and King County Climate Change
www.seattlecan.org/ http://dnr.metrokc.gov/dnrp/climate-change/conference-2005.htm
Increasingly, municipalities and the general public are becoming more aware of
the concepts and risks associated with climate change. A recent study by Infrastructure
14
Canada highlighted the need for more communication between climate change
researchers, policy makers, engineers, architects, operators or asset managers in order
to mainstream climate change adaptation into design, maintenance and restoration of
infrastructure (Infrastructure Canada, 2006). Climate change science has improved
considerably over the last two decades, resulting in more robust predictions and
stronger consensus within the scientific community. The greater level of confidence in
climate and sea level projections can help city planners, policy makers, governments
and developers to integrate climate risks into the decision making process.
Climate Change and Saint John
Most areas of the globe are now starting to experience the impacts of climate
change and Saint John will be increasingly at risk from these impacts. The coastline in
and around Saint John is highly sensitive to sea level rise (Shaw et al. 1998) and much
of the city’s infrastructure, such as wastewater treatment, transportation, shipping and
commercial activities will become vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise. There are
already substantial commercial and residential areas in the city that are subject to
regular flooding which may worsen as precipitation patterns shift over the next 100
years. The City of Saint John needs to begin identifying the potential local impacts of
climate change and evaluating the adaptive capacity of the city. Taking action in
advance of the impacts will result in dramatic reductions in the cost of reacting to
climate in the future.
This report examines the potential impacts that climate change will have on the
City of Saint John, and identifies some of the most vulnerable areas within the city. This
report also presents a simplified vulnerability analysis of Saint John which synthesizes
the historical climate and tidal records so as to identify trends, and ultimately develop
projections for how climate and sea level are likely to change over the next century.
The report identifies some of the vulnerable areas within the city and explores some of
the possible adaptive strategies to deal with the expected impacts. This includes
identifying further tools for assessing and increasing adaptive capacity within the city
that have been used in other municipalities and exploring sustainable and realistic
strategies to help Saint John face the challenges associated with climate impacts.
15
2. Saint John Climate: Historical trends and projec tions
Introduction
It is now well documented that there has been an increase in the global average
surface temperature, with the rate of warming in the last 50 years being roughly double
that of the previous 100 years and a substantial increase in the occurrence of heavy
precipitation events (Solomon et al. 2007). Although there have been considerable
advances in our understanding of past and present climate change and in projecting
future changes, much of the research has been focused at the global or continental
scale. Observational evidence of the impacts of climate is accumulating and adaptation
will be necessary to deal with the unavoidable warming (Parry et al. 2007). Several of
the world’s larger cities have started to address this need for adaptation (London, UK;
Boston, USA; New York City, USA; Greater Vancouver, CAN; Halifax Regional
Municipality, CAN). In general, cities are increasingly becoming aware of the risks and
are recognizing that the costs of failing to adapt are much greater than the costs of
preparing for climate change.
The City of Saint John is Canada’s oldest incorporated city, established in 1785,
and has one of the longest historical climate records in Canada dating back to 1897
(National Climate Data Archive, Environment Canada). The Saint John region is
characterized by rocky slopes leading down to tidal and freshwater wetlands. The
climate of Saint John is heavily influenced by the Bay of Fundy, acting to moderate the
climate, resulting in mild summers and winters.
This section presents an analysis of the historical trends in temperature and
precipitation in the Saint John area over the last 100 years. Projections of future climate
conditions were developed from existing temperature and precipitation records and
using statistical and climate models to help define probable future climate scenarios for
the Saint John Region.
16
Methods
Historical Analysis
This study examines the historical temperature and precipitation records for the
City of Saint John, New Brunswick, Canada over the last 110 years. The City is located
in the south central area of the province along the north shore of the Bay of Fundy at
the mouth of the St. John River. Saint John is the oldest incorporated city in Canada
and has one of the longest historical climate records in Canada dating back to 1895.
Data used for analysis comes from the Adjusted Canadian Historical Climate
Database (ACHCD, www.cccma.bc.ec.gc.ca/hccd/index.shtml) developed by Vincent
and Gullett (1998). The climate database provides homogenized mean, maximum and
minimum temperature measurements and adjusted daily precipitation measurements for
210 stations across the country and reported greater than 90% of all records, with 2003
being the only missing year.
The daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature data have been
homogenized to account for artificial variations in climate records that are unrelated to
actual climate changes, such as instrumentation change, location change site exposure
or observing procedures (Vincent et al. 2002). Adjustments were made using
regression models to identify inhomogeneities and matrices were used to adjust the
records. The Saint John temperature record spans from 1895 to 2006. The daily
precipitation amounts were adjusted to remove any inconsistencies as a result of
systematic biases due to changes in measurement programs, but do not account for
inhomogeneities due to local site changes (Mekis and Hogg 1999). The Saint John
precipitation records spans from 1895 to 2006. Data was split into seasons that were
defined as follows: winter (December – February), Spring (March – May), Summer
(June – August), and Autumn (September – November).
Statistical analyses were done using SYSTAT 10 (Systat Software Inc., Point
Richmond, CA). Annual and seasonal averages of temperature were analyzed to detect
any trends in the record. Temperature data sets were tested for normal distribution
using the Kolmogorov Goodness of Fit test. Temperature trend analyses were done
17
using linear least squares regression and residuals were checked to assure
homogeneity of variances. It must be noted that the interdependent nature of
temperature data can be sensitive to extreme values and outliers.
Precipitation trend analysis was also carried out using linear least squares
regression with the residuals being analyzed to assure homogeneity of variances.
Precipitation data is independent in nature and is considered normally distributed over
most parts of Canada (Groisman & Easterling 1994). Analyses of total annual
precipitation was as the sum of all daily precipitation values in a given year and was
also analyzed using 5 year moving averages, encompassing ± 2 years of any given
year. Precipitation data was also broken into several variables for trend analyses ,
summing the total number of days with high precipitation (over 2.5mm), low precipitation
(between 2.5mm and 0.25mm), and no precipitation (under 0.25mm) in each given year.
Projected Future Climate Scenarios
Modeling future climate is primarily done using global climate models (GCM)that
break the globe up into large blocks (~ 300km x 400km) that are treated as a single unit
and need to be refined or analyzed further to make region specific predictions. All
modeling and analysis in this section was conducted by the Climate Change Division of
the Meteorological Service of Canada and provided by Gary Lines (Climate Change
Meteorologist). Projected GCM output for the Saint John area were taken from the
Canadian Climate Centre for Modeling and Analysis (CCCMA), specifically from the
Canadian Coupled General Circulation Model 2 (CGCM2), and from the Met Office
Hadley Centre for Climate Change, specifically the Hadley Climate Model 3 (HadCM3).
Predictors from models include basic variables, such as mean surface temperature,
mean sea level pressure, specific humidity and complex variables, such as geopotential
heights and geotrophic winds reconstructed from pressure gradients (Lines et al. 2005).
Predictor sets from both models were generated for three future periods,
corresponding to the following tri-decadal periods; 2020s (2010-2039), the 2050s (2040-
2069), and 2080s (2070-2099). Data was provided in the form of daily data from the
18
CGCM2 and HadCM3 experiments, using the B2 scenario as described by IPCC
(2000), and normalized with respect to 1961-1990.
Statistical Downscaling Modeling (SDSM) was used to generate local climate
scenarios according to the methodology from Lines et al. (2005). The SDSM model is
available for public use and can be downloaded from the SDSM UK website, along with
a full description in the ‘Users Manual’ (Wilby et al. 2001). A brief description of the
model, adapted from Lines et al. (2005), follows here.
The SDSM model is a hybrid of two methods; multiple regression and stochastic
downscaling. Climate predictors (eg. mean temperature) were regressed against
observed data sets, called predictands (eg. minimum or maximum temperature) to
develop regression equations and calibrated to reduce error and increase explained
variance. Predictor selection is done by choosing the predictor values that return the
highest explained variance and lowest standard error. This set of regression equations
is then used to develop future scenarios for the predictand(s) by running data sets from
the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The output can also be
further validated by comparing downscales projections against actual values from the
baseline period. The calibrated output is then run through a stochastic model to
generate data sets that could be averaged to provide the downscaled values for the
scenarios.
SDSM modeling was used to develop projections of future scenarios of
temperature and precipitation. Models were used to predict changes in the mean
annual maximum and minimum temperature and total annual precipitation over the tri-
decadal periods mentioned above. A suite of projected precipitation data is created and
examined by Extreme Value Analysis and plotted to the Gumbel distribution to identify
precipitation return periods according to the methods outlined in Pancura and Lines
(2005). The return period expresses the frequency for which an event is expected to
occur in terms of probabilities. The precipitation return values in this report correspond
to 24 hour precipitation events and present the 10, 50 and 100 year events and
compare historical values to the tri-decadal periods mentioned above.
19
Results
Trends in Historical Temperature Records
The annual maximum temperatures in Saint John showed a gradual, but
consistent increase in temperature over the last 100 years, with a marked increase in
the number of warm years in the last 50 years of the record (Figure 2.1). The
temperature record showed a mean annual warming trend of 0.09 °C per decade from
1895 to 2007 and similar trends were visible in the annual maximum and minimum
temperatures (Table 2.11), but high variability in temperature resulted in a low
coefficient of determination. The warming trend was present in each season as well,
with the largest trend in the mean maximum summer temperature, warming 0.25 °C per
decade with a high coefficient of determination (Figure 2.2).
Table 2.1 – Trends in the annual and seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures in Saint John from 1895-2007. R2 refers to the closeness of fit, E refers to the estimated standard error, and p indicates statistical significance.
Mean Maximum Temperature (°C) Mean Minimum Temperature (°C) °C/Decade R2 SE P °C/Decade R2 SE P Annual 0.08 0.166 0.002 0.01 0.09 0.144 0.002 <0.01 Spring 0.06 0.048 0.003 0.02 0.09 0.076 0.003 <0.01
Summer 0.25 0.532 0.002 <0.01 0.06 0.112 0.002 <0.01 Autumn 0.03 0.015 0.002 0.19 0.05 0.042 0.002 0.03 Winter 0.00 <0.001 0.004 0.97 0.15 0.076 0.005 <0.01
The annual minimum temperatures showed a similar trend to the annual
maximum temperatures, with an increase in warmer years over the last half of the
record, but had poorer goodness of fit than maximum temperatures (Figure 1). The
trend in annual minimum temperature from 1895 to 2007 was 0.09 °C per decade, again
with a low coefficient of determination. The seasonal minimums displayed warming
trends as well, with the largest trend in winter, warming 0.15 °C per decade (Table 2.1).
Summer was the only season to show a coefficient of determination greater than 10%.
The records of mean maximum and minimum temperatures both show an
increase in the number of warm years in the latter half of the record, starting around the
1950’s. Analysis of the block means of maximum and minimum temperature show
20
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Te
mp
era
ture
°C
Year
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
10.5
11
11.5
12
12.5
Te
mp
era
ture
°C
A
B
Trend + 0.08 °C/Decade
Trend + 0.09 °C/Decade
higher temperatures in the latter half of the record, with the annual mean 0.43 °C higher
from 1950-2007, and the mean summer temperature 1.48 °C higher from 1950-2007
(Table 2.2).
Figure 2.1 – Trends in the mean annual A) maximum and B) minimum temperature from Saint John, NB from 1895 to 2006. Baselines are set at the mean values for the entire record.
21
18
19
20
21
22
23
Te
mp
era
ture
°C
Year
Trend + 0.25 °C/Decade
Figure 2.2 –Trend in the mean of the maximum summer temperature in Saint John, NB from 1895 to 2006. Baseline is set at the mean value for the entire record.
Table 2.2 – Differences in mean maximum and minimum temperatures in Saint John, NB before 1950 and after 1950.
Average Minimum Temperature
(C°) Average Maximum Temperature
(C°) 1895-1949 1950-2006 1895-1949 1950-2006
Annual 0.09 0.63 9.64 10.07 Spring -1.60 -1.05 8.02 8.35
Summer 10.60 10.94 19.77 21.25 Autumn 3.38 3.74 12.00 12.10 Winter -12.17 -11.11 -1.50 -1.47
22
Trends in Historic Precipitation Record
The total annual precipitation in Saint John was highly variable, showing an
increasing trend until peaking around 1980, and showing a decrease in total
precipitation of the last 25 years (Figure 2.3). Trend analysis of the five year moving
averages for annual and seasonal precipitation show that there was a small but
significant increasing trend in annual precipitation of 16.99 mm per decade and the
largest trend was in winter precipitation, increasing on average 91.87 mm per decade
(Table 2.3).
Figure 2.3 – Trends in the total annual precipitation (mm) from Saint John, NB from 1895 to 2006 and a five year moving average from 1897-2001. Values calculated from the sum of all daily precipitation values.
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
2100
18
95
18
99
19
03
19
07
19
11
19
15
19
19
19
23
19
27
19
31
19
35
19
39
19
43
19
47
19
51
19
55
19
59
19
63
19
67
19
71
19
75
19
79
19
83
19
87
19
91
19
95
19
99
20
03
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
mm
)
Year
Total Annual
5 Year Moving average
23
Table 2.3 – Historic trend data for five year moving averages of total annual and seasonal precipitation for the City of Saint John from 1897 to 2005. R2 refers to the closeness of fit, E refers to the estimated standard error, and p indicates statistical significance.
mm/Decade R2 E p Annual 16.99 0.132 0.42 <0.05 Spring 32.67 0.060 0.12 <0.05 Summer -0.24 0.000 0.16 0.880 Autumn 45.91 0.075 3.06 <0.05 Winter 91.87 0.166 0.20 <0.05 Please note that due to the random nature of precipitation, an R2 value above 0.1 was considered an acceptable trend.
While there was little significant change in the bulk precipitation records, there
were significant changes in the distribution trends of precipitation within the historical
record. Annually, the number of days with no precipitation shows a decreasing trend of
almost 3 days per decade, whereas the number of days with low precipitation shows an
increasing trend of 2 years per decade (Table 2.4). Winter was the only season to have
a significant trend in days with high precipitation, showing an increasing trend of half a
day per decade.
Table 2.4 - Historic annual and seasonal trend data for days with high precipitation, low precipitation and no precipitation in Saint John from 1895 to 2007. R2 refers to the closeness of fit, E refers to the estimated standard error, and p indicates statistical significance.
Days with High Precipitation (greater than 2.5 mm)
Days With Low Precipitation (less than 2.5 mm)
Days with no Precipitation (less than 0.25 mm)
Days/ Decade R2 E p Days/
Decade R2 E p Days/ Decade R2 E p
Annual 0.51 0.014 0.03 0.115 2.14 0.235 0.04 <0.05 -2.88 0.256 0.05 <0.05 Spring 0.13 0.008 0.02 0.362 0.75 0.209 0.01 <0.05 -0.90 0.191 0.02 <0.05 Summer -0.16 0.002 0.01 0.264 0.51 0.072 0.02 <0.05 -0.33 0.017 0.02 0.091 Autumn 0.12 0.006 0.02 0.422 0.36 0.044 0.02 <0.01 -0.57 0.060 0.02 <0.05 Winter 0.43 0.056 0.02 <0.05 0.50 0.097 0.02 <0.05 -0.95 0.168 0.02 <0.05
24
0
1
2
3
2020s 2050s 2080s
0
1
2
3
2020s 2050s 2080s
B
A
CGCM2
HadCM3
Tem
pe
ratu
re C
ha
ng
e (
°C)
Tri-Decades
Projected Future Temperature and Precipitation Scenarios
SDSM projections from both climate models show that the mean annual
maximum and minimum temperature is expected to increase over the next 100 years,
increasing by almost a degree each tri-decadal period (Figure 2.4).
Figure 2.4 - Projected changes in A) maximum and B) minimum temperature in Saint John, NB for three future tri-decade periods [2020 (2010-2039), 2050 (2040-2069) and 2080 (2070-2099)]. Results are SDSM models using output from the Canadian Climate Model (CGCM2) and the UK Hadley Model (HadCM3) using the B2 scenario as described by the IPCC (2000).
25
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2020s 2050s 2080s
% C
ha
ng
e
Tri-Decade
CGCM2
HadCM3
The Canadian model and the Hadley model show opposing predictions for the
total annual precipitation (Figure 2.5). The CGCM2 projects an increase of 25% by the
2050s and little change over the next 30 years, whereas the HadCM3 predicts that
precipitation will remain fairly constant for the first two tri-decades and decrease by 7%
in the final tri-decade period.
Figure 2.5 – Projected future % change of total annual precipitation in Saint John, NB for three future tri-decade periods [2020 (2010-2039), 2050 (2040-2069) and 2080 (2070-2099)]. Results are SDSM projections from using output from the Canadian Climate Model (CGCM2) and the UK Hadley Model (HadCM3) using the B2 scenario as described by the IPCC (2000).
The two models result in different precipitation return scenarios, with the CGCM2 model
predicting very little change in return periods, beyond slight increases in precipitation
amounts for the 10 year event and the HadCM3 predicting an increase in the amount of
precipitation received in 24 events (Figure 2.6). The HadCM3 models show a shift in
return periods, whereby the historical 100 year event becomes the 50 year event by the
2050s and we see a large increase the expected precipitation amount in the 100 year
event.
26
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
HISTORICAL 2020s 2050s 2080s
Pre
cipi
tatio
n R
etur
n P
erio
ds (
mm
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
HISTORICAL 2020's 2050's 2080's
Pre
cipi
tatio
n R
etur
n P
erio
ds (
mm
)
A
B
10 YEARS
50 YEARS
100 YEARS
Figure 2.6 – Comparison of historical precipitation return periods for a 24 hour precipitation event with projections for future return periods. The time periods correspond to the following dates; Historical (1961-1990), 2020s (2010-2039), 2050s (2040-2069) and 2080s (2070-2099) Projections come from SDSM models with data provided by A) the Canadian Climate Model (CGCM2) and B) the UK Hadley model (HadCM3) run using the B2 scenario as described by the IPCC (2000).
27
Discussion and Conclusions
Historically Saint John has seen slight increases in mean temperature, but
projections indicate that temperature will increase more rapidly in the future, resulting in
up to 3˚C increase both maximum and minimum annual temperature. The results of
these projections fall within the range of larger scale regional models for North America
(Christensen et al. 2007) and the Atlantic Region (Hengeveld 2000). There has been
no significant predicted change or trend in the total annual amount of precipitation, but
there has been a predicted shift in the pattern of distribution, with a significant increase
in the number of days with precipitation. Predicting future precipitation scenarios is
extremely difficult (i.e. speculative) due to the natural variability of precipitation data, but
scenarios indicate that this shift in precipitation patterns is likely to continue and may
result in changing precipitation return periods. These changes in temperature and
precipitation will have significant impacts on the City of Saint John if they are not
addressed.
Temperature
Saint John has seen a temperature increase of just under 1 ˚C in mean annual
temperature over the last 100 years, with a shift in the annual maximum and minimum
temperature range, comparable to the average global temperature increase. The most
pronounced increase in temperature is predicted for the mean maximum summer
temperature ,and to a lesser degree for the minimum winter temperature. Although the
historical record shows only small temperature increases, a positive trend is detected
(with the exception of autumn maximum temperature) across all seasons in both the
mean maximum and minimum temperature suggesting more than simply natural
variability. Results of the regional models indicate that the trend of increasing
temperature is likely to accelerate in the future, which coincides with the accelerated
increase in global temperature predicted by the IPCC (Solomon et al. 2007).
Analysis of the historical temperature trends show that Saint John has
experienced slight warming, the most prevalent being increases in the maximum
summer temperature. Both the Canadian Climate Model and the Hadley UK climate
28
model project that mean temperature will continue to increase over the next 100 years,
warming up to 3 degrees by the mid 2080s. This represents a substantial increase in
temperature that could have large impacts on the region. An increase in the mean
annual temperature will result in more frequent occurrences of heat waves within the
city, exacerbating local air pollution and increasing heat stress to Saint John’s aging
population. An increase in mean temperature can also have biological impacts,
including alteration of fish habitat due to watercourse warming or an increase in the
number of invasive species within the city. These changes in temperature will also
contribute to changes in rates of evapotranspiration and to shifts in the patterns of
precipitation.
Precipitation
The historical record shows no clear trends in bulk precipitation, but there were
significant changes in the distribution patterns. The most prominent change in seasonal
distribution pattern was a substantial increase in the amount of winter precipitation,
which may be in the form of snow or rain. Saint John has also seen an increase in the
number of days with precipitation, again most prominently during the winter. There
have not been substantial changes in the bulk precipitation that Saint John receives, but
there have been significant shifts in how and when we receive precipitation, which can
have an effect on city infrastructure, in particular storm and waste water management.
The projections of future precipitation scenarios are complex and the two models
used to determine these projections show significantly different results. The Hadley
model predicts a slight decrease in the total annual precipitation, and does match with
the pattern of decreasing annual precipitation of seen over the last 25 years. The
Canadian model however, predicts that there will be a significant increase in
precipitation over the next 100 years. It is uncertain which of these models is correct
and further modeling and projections using a variety methods of may be necessary.
The Canadian model may be seen as the worst case scenario in terms of future
precipitation scenarios. Projections also indicate that there may be a change in extreme
weather events, with a shift in the precipitation return periods. The Hadley model shows
a significant shift, where the 100 year storm event shifts to the 50 year event, whereas
29
the Canadian model show only slight increases in the magnitude of the precipitation
event. These models may present the range of values that may be expected in the
future.
Conclusions
The City of Saint John has experienced relatively little change in climate over the
last 100 years, but changes are expected to increase in the future. The proximity of the
City to the Bay of Fundy has helped buffer the city from the more pronounced changes
in temperature seen among other regions in the Atlantic. However, the more
accelerated rise in global surface temperature (Solomon et al. 2007) and ocean
temperatures (Bindoff et al. 2007) will result in the acceleration of temperature rise in
the Saint John region and contribute to changes in precipitation patterns. Saint John
will become warmer, most notably with hotter summers and warmer winters and
experience a greater range of extreme temperatures. These events may have health
implications, including worsening air quality due to synergistic effects with current air
pollution problems in Saint John and increasing health risks for Saint John’s aging
population during extreme heat or cold periods.
Global climate change will also contribute to regional changes in precipitation
patterns and extreme weather events, but these are significantly harder to predict. If the
model results are taken as plausible ranges in future precipitation rates, the City may
experience small increases in total precipitation, but of greater consequence is the shift
in return periods for extreme precipitation events. Changes in the precipitation return
periods would have drastic impacts on city infrastructure, such as storm and waste
water management. Much of the city’s storm water infrastructure and flood mitigation
measures are based on current precipitation return periods and the components of
these systems, such as pipes, culverts and surface water courses may break down if
more severe or more frequent precipitation events occur. Saint John currently has
flooding issues in some key areas of the City, including areas around the Marsh Creek
floodplain, and some of the uptown areas around Harbour Station and Market Slip.
Changes in precipitation patterns and return periods could exacerbate current problems
and introduce new issues if no action is taken to adapt and prepare for future changes.
30
3. Sea Level Rise in Saint John
Introduction
Sea level has historically fluctuated with changes in global temperatures. For
example, during the last glacial period when temperatures where ~ 5 ° C lower than at
present much of the ocean’s water was tied up in glaciers and sea level could have
been up to 100 meters lower than present sea level (Titus et al. 1991). Sea level has
also been up to 6 meters higher than present during interglacial periods (Mercer 1970).
Current increases in global temperature are predicted to have large impacts on global
sea level through a combination of thermal expansion and melting glacial ice (Bindoff et
al. 2007). The IPCC predictions for global sea level rise in the most recent report states
a range of 0.18 – 0.59 m by the year 2100, depending on the emissions scenario
(Meehler et al. 2007). The IPCC projections have a high level of confidence, but it must
be noted that they do not take into account any acceleration in ice flow from the
Greenland and West Antarctic continental ice sheets. There is a high level of
uncertainty associated with continental ice sheet movement that makes it difficult to
model, but any increase in ice flow from either of these ice sheets would result in
greater sea level rise than projected. That is, current sea-level rise predictions can be
considered conservative.
The effects of sea level will change from region to region based on local
geography, geology and ocean currents. Recent studies have shown that sea level has
been rising more quickly in coastal areas than the global average and is rising faster
more recently than it has in the past century (Holgate and Woodworth 2004). The
Geological Survey of Canada has determined that Atlantic Canada has the longest
length of coastlines sensitive to sea-level rise in Canada, with approximately 80% of the
Atlantic region’s coast considered moderately to highly sensitive (Shaw et al. 1998).
This high level of sensitivity is due in part to the fact that large portions of the Atlantic
coastline are subsiding as a result of crustal movements in response to deglaciation,
with this compounding effect resulting in a relatively higher level of sea rise (Figure 3.1).
31
Figure 3.1 – Areas of the Canadian coast that are currently submerging Source: Shaw et al. 1998.
This predicted rise in sea level has numerous implications for coastal areas, and
especially for coastal cities where much of the infrastructure and economy focuses
around the water. The Saint John region has been identified as moderate to highly
sensitive to sea level rise (Figure 3.2). A previous study by Martec Ltd. (1987)
examined the effects that a one metre sea level rise would have on Saint John and the
lower reaches of the St. John River, and identified several areas within the city that
would be at increased risk from storm surge in the future (Box 3.1). Both Martec Ltd.
(1987) and ACAP Saint John (2002) identified storm surge as the biggest risk factor
associated with sea level rise. Improvements in modeling technology have led to higher
confidence in projections of global sea level rise and more detailed assessment of the
regional impacts of sea level rise. Mapping of future sea level rise and storm surge is a
valuable tool to help cities to conduct risk assessments and improve adaptive capacity.
32
Saint John Harbour
E
EH
E
H
100 year flood linewith 1m sea level rise
Extreme risk area
High risk area
NOTE: FILLED-IN SINCE AIR PHOTOS
H H
Source: Martec, Effects of a one metre sea-level rise at Saint John, NB..., 1987
Saint John,New Brunswick
Box 3.1: Summary: Effects of a 1 metre rise in sea le vel at Saint John, NB (Martec Ltd. 1987)
Figure 1 – Flood map of the 1:100 year storm surge on Saint John, NB. Circles indicate areas where city inf rastructure is at risk f rom the ef fects of the storm surge
Environment Canada, through the Canadian Climate, program funded a study to examine the effects of a 1 metrerise in sea level on the City of St. John and the lower reaches of the Saint John River. The study identified the levels of the1:20 and 1:100 year storm surge and, assuming that a 1 m rise in sea level would correspond with a 1 m rise in the storm surge, mapped the areas that would be affected by these extreme water levels. The results show that the water levels for a 1:100 year event will reach 6.0 m above datum and the 1:20 year event will reach 5.8 m above datum, which is roughly equivalent to the current 1:100 year storm surge.
This change in storm surge levels would have serious implications for the City of Saint John and has the potential to affect large areas of commercial and residential development and transportation infrastructure. Mapping of the 1:100 year flood line identifies several areas that are at risk from storm surge (Figure 1). The two areas most at risk from storm surge are the port facilities on the west side and Marsh Creek flood basin, including the Courtenay Forebay, leading to damage and disruption of marine transportation and infrastructure and rail and road disruptions. Several other areas of the city are at risk from flooding and inundation during storm surge, including sections of the uptown, industrial facilities along the St. John River and sewage and wastewater treatment lagoons (Table 1).
This report highlighted the need to begin long-term planning and retrofitting of existing city infrastructure. It was recommended that the city start carrying risk-benefit analyses of adaptive strategies to address future rise in sea level. The report suggested that the city develop guidelines to regulate development on lands at risk of inundation or flooding and to identify what data is needed to assess the social and economic costs of sea level rise.
Table 1 – Potential risks associated with a 1:100 year storm surge in the City of Saint John Harbour and surrounding region. Table represents a summary of risks identif ied in the 1987 study conducted by Martec Ltd.
Citation: Martec Ltd. 1987. Effects of a one metre sea-level rise at Saint John, New Brunswick and the lower reaches of the Saint John River. For: Atmospheric Environment Service, Environment Canada.
33
Low
Moderate
High
Figure 3.2 – Sensitivity of the Atlantic coasts to sea level rise, with the inset showing a closer view of the region around Saint John and the Bay of Fundy. Red zones indicate high risk, Yellow indicates moderate risk and green indicates low risk. Source: Shaw et al. 1998.
This section examines how sea level rise and the associated changes in storm
surge levels will impact Saint John. The first step was an analysis of the historical
record of sea level change in the Saint John region and formulation of predictions for
future sea level rise incorporating regional effects on sea level rise, such as crustal
subsidence and tidal amplification. Simple flood models were constructed to examine
the impacts of projected sea level rise and storm surge events using updated elevation
data for the Saint John region, including LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) surveys
of the Marsh Creek floodplain and identify vulnerable areas of the city.
34
Methods
Historic and Projected Changes in Sea Level
This section focused on the City of Saint John (as described in the previous
chapter) and more specifically, the Saint John Harbour and adjacent coastlines
including the Saint’s Rest Marsh and Red Head Beach. Similar to its climate record,
Saint John possesses one of the oldest tidal records in the Atlantic region.
The data for the historical analysis and tide level calculations came from the
Marine Environmental Data Services (MEDS) Integrated Science Data Management
(http://www.meds-sdmm.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/). This database provides ocean data collected
by the Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada or international programs that are
conducted within or near Canadian waters. Tide gauge data was obtained from Station
65 in Saint John (Lat 45.251, Long 66.093), which contains digital records (of almost
continuous hourly water levels) from 1896 to the present. The annual mean sea levels
were calculated from daily mean tides. The mean sea level for the entire dataset was
used to establish the baseline for sea level change and linear regression was used to
detect any trends in sea level.
Projected changes in sea level were established by an additive process taking
into account global sea level rise projections from the most recent IPCC report A1F1
scenario (Meehl et al. 2007), crustal subsidence inferred from tide gauge data and the
effects of tidal amplification (Table 3.1). These changes equate to 0.70 m rise in sea
level by the year 2100. Water levels were calculated using hourly tide levels over the
last 9 years. MSL (Mean sea level) represents the mean of all hourly water levels over
the sample period. MHHW (Mean higher high water) represents the mean of all the
higher high water marks each day over the sample period. PSHW (Perigean spring
high water mark) represents the mean of the highest monthly high water mark over the
sample period.
35
Table 3.1 – Summary of sea level rise projections for the Saint John region, broken down into additive components. MSL – Mean sea level; MHHW – Mean higher high water mark; PSHW – Perigean spring high water mark.
Present
Sea-Level Crustal
Subsidence 1 Global Sea -Level Rise 2
Tidal Amplification 3
2100 Sea Level
MSL 0.24 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.94 MHHW 3.47 0.2 0.4 0.1 4.17 PSHW 4.31 0.2 0.4 0.1 5.01
1 Tide Gauge data and Shaw et al. 1998 2 IPCC Meehl et al. 2007 3 Webster personal communication, Titus 1990
Storm surge modeling
Storm surge models were done using ArcGIS 9.2 (ESRI, Redlands, CA, USA)
and gvSIG 1.1 (Conselleria d’Infraestructures I Transport, Valencia, SPN). Elevation
data was provided by the City of Saint John GIS Department. Chart datum water levels
obtained from MEDS were converted to Canadian Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1928
(CGVD28) according to methodology outlined by Webster et al. (2007). Previous
models indicated that the majority of impacts associated with sea level rise stem from
storm surges occurring at or near high tide. The present model used the scenario of a 1-
metre storm surge striking at MHHW under the sea level projections from Table 3.1,
which is close to the median for historical storm surges in the Atlantic region with
averages ranging from 0.6 – 2 m (Parkes et al 1997). Storm surge maps were
constructed for 3 locations in Saint John; the Inner Harbour, Saint’s Rest and the Red
Head Road area. Flood risk maps for the Marsh Creek/Glen Falls area were
constructed by Drisdelle (2007) for the City of Saint John from LiDAR altimetry.
It should be noted that these flood models are flat earth models and do not take
into account wave modeling or shore run-up, and assume that the projected sea-level
rise will not alter the morphology of the coastline. Sea level rise would likely result in
changes in coastal morphology, such as shifting coastal wetlands and increasing
erosion on shorelines with unconsolidated soils. It is difficult to quantify or predict
changes in coastal morphology without extensive studies of erosion, sedimentation, and
wave action.
36
Results
Historic Tide Record
Tide gauge records indicate a clear trend of rising sea level over the last 100
years, with Saint John experiencing approximately 2 mm of relative sea level rise per
year, resulting in approximately 0.2 m change in mean sea level (Figure 3.3).
Figure 3.3 – Observed sea level change from the historic tide gauge record from Saint John, NB. Baseline is set at the mean for the historical record (4.369 m Datum).
Projected changes in sea level
Saint John is projected to see an increase in sea level of 0.80 m by the year
2100, due to a combination of actual sea level rise, relative sea level rise and tidal
amplification caused by the morphology of the Bay of Fundy. Sea level rise is expected
to increase more rapidly in the future (Figure 3.4), but it is unclear exactly what pattern
that sea level rise will follow. Figure 3.4 assumes a logarithmic increase, but any
changes in ice sheet behaviour or land based glacier melt could have a severe impact
on sea level predictions.
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
Se
a L
ev
el C
ha
ng
e
Year
Observed Sea Level
5 yr Moving Average
Trend + 20 mm/decade
37
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
Se
a L
ev
el C
ha
ng
e (
m)
Year
Relative SLR
Combined relative SLR
and actual SLR
Figure 3.4 - Mean sea level changes in Saint John, NB. The solid blue line indicates a reconstruction of the annual mean sea level from the tide gauge record. The dashed blue line indicates projected relative sea level rise (SLR) as a result of crustal subsidence and the solid green line indicates the projected sea level change from the combined values of relative SLR (crustal subsidence), actual SLR (thermal expansion) and tidal amplification. The baseline value is set at the mean for the historical record (4.369 m Datum).
Storm Surge
The projected sea level rise increases the flood risks (as a result of storm surge)
for several locations in Saint John, including the Inner Harbour (up to the pulp and
paper mill on the reversing falls), Saint’s Rest Marsh, Red Head Marsh, Red Head
Beach, Marsh Creek and its floodplain (Figure 3.5). Storm surge forecasting from
Drisdelle (2006) predicts a shift in storm surge return periods with 1:10 year storm at
4.6m, 1:20 year storm at 4.7 m, 1:50 year storm at 4.9 m and the 1:100 year storm 5.2
m, but it must be noted that the sea level rise prediction for the LiDAR model was more
conservative than the additive model used for the other maps.
38
Figure 3.5 – Flood risk map for an approximately 1 m storm surge for key areas within the City of Saint John in the year 2100 assuming sea level rise of 0.7 m. Areas within the yellow for Inner Harbour, Saint’s Rest Marsh and Red Head Road are flood lines a 1 m storm surge landing at MHHW taking into account a 0.7 m sea level rise. The Marsh Creek flood map is from Drisdelle (2006) based on LiDAR altimetry data showing flood lines for a 4.6 m sea level in the year 2100, which roughly corresponds to 8.8 m (Chart Datum)
Inner Harbour
Saint’s Rest Marsh
Marsh Creek*
Red Head Road
39
Discussion and Conclusions
Saint John has seen a sea level rise of approximately 0.20 m over the last 100
years, predominantly as a result of crustal subsidence (Shaw et al. 1998b; Weddle and
Retelle 2001), but sea level is expected rise more rapidly over the next 100 years
(Meehl et al. 2007) resulting in a sea level rise of 0.70 m within the Saint John region
(Figure 3.4). Saint John will become increasingly vulnerable to impacts from storm
surge as sea level rises and some key city, commercial, and industrial infrastructure are
at risk (Figure 3.5). The Marsh Creek Floodplain and surrounding areas are most at risk
from rising sea level, compounding the pre-existing flood problems that were identified
in that area decades ago (Proctor and Redfern 1976, Martec Ltd. 1987).
Sea Level Rise
Sea level rise is likely to be one of the most dramatic consequences of climate
change, particularly for those living in coastal regions. However, sea level is influenced
by a multitude of dynamic and complex processes and historically, large uncertainties
and variability have made accurate predictions difficult. However, improvements in the
science of modeling, coupled with more accurate measurement of sea level and
advances in the understanding of ocean circulation, have led to greater confidence
associated with predictions in recent years. Specifically, recent studies have detected
enhanced sea level rise over the last decade (Holgate and Wodworth 2004) supporting
the projections from the IPCC (Church et al. 2007; Meehl et al. 2007) that sea level rise
is beginning to accelerate. The projections for sea level rise in this document are
similar to reports from other areas around the Maritimes that have conducted
assessments of sea level rise (McCulloch et al. 2002; Forbes et al. 2006). Environment
Canada (2006) experimented with different regional models to obtain projections
specific to the Atlantic region, but found no models that obtain significantly different
results than the global predictions from the IPCC reports.
The sea level rise projections from the most recent IPCC report (Meehl et al.
2007) have much higher confidence levels than previous reports, and clear historic
trends in relative sea level change and crustal subsidence (Shaw et al. 1998a; Weddle
40
and Retelle 2001) result in high confidence for the projections presented in this study.
The Canadian models have high confidence that sea level will have risen 0.40 m by the
year 2100, but the exact pattern of sea level rise is uncertain and the logarithmic trend
shown above (Figure 3.4) may not be an accurate representation. There are some
indications that these predictions are too conservative, such as recent sea level rise
exceeding earlier model predictions, and that scientists are underestimating sea level
rise (Rahmstorf 2007). That potential, combined with the fact that projections in the
most recent IPCC reports do not take into account any changes in the land based ice
sheets of Greenland and the Western Antarctic, could lead to much higher levels of sea
level rise in the future.
The projections in this study indicate that sea level rise will not result in
permanent inundation of any portions of Saint John, mostly due to the fact that most of
the coastline around Saint John consists of steep rocky shorelines that rise quickly out
of the water. There is risk that areas around the Marsh Creek floodplain may be
affected during Perigean high tides that may reach over 5 m (orthometric) or 9 m (Chart
Datum), which could overtop the causeway at the Courtenay Forebay. The true risk
factor behind rising sea level is the resulting changes in storm surge and wave patterns.
Stormwater levels and waves are tied closely to the mean sea level and rising sea level
will have important implications for flooding levels and wave run-up (Forbes et al. 2006).
Storm Surge
Storm surge has been identified as one of the largest threats to coastal
communities in the Atlantic region. Numerous Maritime municipalities are at risk from
storm surge as sea level begins to rise, including Charlottetown (McCulloch et al. 2002),
Bouctouche and Shediac (Environment Canada 2006), Annapolis Royal (Webster et al.
2007) and Truro (Webster and Forbes 2005). Storm surge, defined as the difference
between the observed water level and predicted astronomical tide, has been a risk
factor for the Bay of Fundy and the Atlantic region since it was settled. There have
been several well documented storm surges that have caused severe damage to
communities around the Bay of Fundy, such as the Saxby Gale of 1869 and the
Groundhog Day Storm of 1976, where tides rose up to 2.5 m above predicted levels
41
(Desplanque and Mossman 1999). These extreme water levels may become more
frequent as sea levels rise, reducing the distance between normal tides and flood
conditions. The large tides in the Bay of Fundy reduce the probability of significant
storm surges occurring at high tide, as compared to other regions in the Atlantic, but
previous events like the Groundhog Day storm indicate that these extreme events are
possible and may become more frequent and more severe. This study identifies
numerous areas of Saint John that would be at risk from storm surge as the sea level
rises.
As stated previously, the Marsh Creek watershed and its associated floodplain
are most at risk from storm surge, with the former extent of the Great Marsh flooding
soon after the water breaches the causeway (Figure 3.6), and subsequently inundating
large sections of residential and commercial property. The Marsh Creek watershed is
already prone to inland flooding during heavy precipitation events (Proctor and Redfern
1976) and major storm surges most often occur in conjunction with heavy precipitation
events, resulting in the exacerbation of storm surge through inland flooding. The
eastern wastewater treatment lagoon near Saints Rest and the wastewater treatment
ponds at the pulp and paper mill are at risk from wave run-up associated with storm
surge, which could result in contamination of fresh water if breached. The commercial
areas near Market Square and the west side docks are also at risk from storm surge.
Conclusions
The City of Saint John will become increasingly vulnerable to storm surge and
sea level rise over the next century. The flood prone regions on the east side of the city
near the Marsh Creek floodplain will become increasingly vulnerable to the effects of
combined coastal and inland flooding. The probability of severe storm surges
coinciding with MHHW or PGSW are lower than regions such as Southeastern shore of
New Brunswick, but they still represent a significant risk to city infrastructure and
citizens. More detailed analysis using LiDAR altimetry of the whole city to produce a
more accurate DEM, combined with inland flooding analysis will drastically improve the
modeling and develop a more complete vulnerability analysis of the City.
42
Figure 3.6 – Comparison of the former extent of the Great Marsh and the resulting flood levels from a storm surge in the year 2100 that results in a 4.6 m water level (orthometric).
Saint John needs to address the vulnerability of the City and assess its adaptive
capacity. Changes in municipal development policy are needed to limit development in
some of the high risk areas identified, and to begin addressing options to help the city
improve adaptive capacity, such as increasing wetlands and green spaces to help limit
flooding, and implementing “no regrets” policies (Medhi et al. 2006; Ligeti et al. 2007).
Many cities have begun to address the mitigation side of climate change, but in order to
prepare Saint John for the expected impacts it is important to have an integrated
approach addressing both mitigation and adaptation to the changing climate.
Former extent of
Great MarshStorm surge resulting
in a 4.6 m tide
43
4. Adaptation
Introduction
It is now well established that a changing global climate is increasing climate
variability and exposure to extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and storms
(IPCC 2001a, IPCC 2007). This change in climate is the result of a combination of
natural factors and human activity; however, recent studies indicate that human
activities such as fossil fuel consumption and changes in land-use patterns are playing
a dominant role in climate changes observed during the past 100 years (IPCC 2007).
While the need to address climate change has come to the forefront of public
awareness, the majority of strategies are focused on the mitigation of greenhouse gas
emissions. The reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, termed mitigation, is important
in reducing the rate and severity of future climate change. However, climate response
to emission reductions will not be seen for at least 50 years due to the slow equilibrating
process of global climate. Regardless of any future reduction in emissions, global
temperatures and sea level will continue to rise over the next century (Meehl et al.
2007). Therefore, it is important that communities around the globe begin the process of
adapting to deal with the short and long-term impacts of climate change.
Adaptation initially referred to future changes in climate, but has increasingly
been understood to include adjustments in climate variability and extremes, as well as
future climate change. Adaptation, in the context of climate change, refers to any
change in activity that reduces the negative impacts of climate change, with the goals of
alleviating current impacts, reducing sensitivity and exposure to climate related hazards,
and increasing adaptive capacity (Warren and Egginton 2008). There are numerous
types of adaptation, including anticipatory; action taken before impacts are observed,
and reactive; action taken after impacts are observed (Smit et al. 1999; Table 4.1).
Although the economic costs of adaptation are relatively unknown, the benefits of
strong, early action on adaptation and mitigation will far outweigh the costs of adapting
after impacts have occurred (Stern 2006). There has been a stronger awareness in
recent years of the importance of adapting to climate change and of evaluating the
potential impacts of climate change from a variety of perspectives. This newfound
44
perspective also recognizes the different roles for adaptation processes from
individuals, communities, the private sector (e.g. industry, business, commerce), and
governments at all levels (Burton 2008).
Table 4.1 – Summary of different types of adaptation and the method of differentiation. (Source: Burton 2008)
Adaptation Based on Type of Adaptation
Intent In relation to
climatic stimulus
Autonomous (e.g. unmanaged natural
systems)
Planned (e.g. public agencies)
Action
Reactive (post)
(from observed modification)
Concurrent (during)
Anticipatory (ante)
(prior modification)
Temporal scope
Short term
Adjustments, instantaneous, autonomous
Long term
Adaptation, cumulative, policy
Spatial scope Localized Widespread
Global exposure to climate change associated with extreme weather events is
increasing, and (subsequently) the associated economic costs have also been
increasing steadily, reaching over US $100 billion in 2004. This trend is expected to
continue increasing as the world experiences more frequent and possibly more severe
weather events (Burton 2006). Canada is already experiencing the impacts of climate
change and can expect to see an increase in climate associated effects (e.g. extreme
weather events) in the coming decades and centuries. Economic studies of climate
impacts on the US indicate that economic impacts will be seen throughout the country
and that the negative impacts will outweigh the benefits in most sectors (Ruth et al.
2007). Climate change has (and will) continue to affect the Canadian economy in
numerous ways including; impacts from extreme weather events (Table 4.2), impacts on
buildings and infrastructure, costs related to public health and safety, and impacts from
45
changes in water resources (Warren and Egginton 2008). The impacts that climate
change will have in Canada vary drastically based on regional geographical, economic
and environmental characteristics and are outlined in detail in several federal
assessment documents (Koshida and Avis 1998, Lemmen and Warren 2004, Lemmen
et al. 2008).
Table 4.2 – Examples of weather related disasters in Canada and estimated cost of the damages.
Event Cost Prairie Drought 2001-2002 $ 5 Billion
Ice Storm 1998 $ 4.2 Billion Saguenay Flood 1996 $ 1.2 Billion Red River Flood 1997 $ 400 Million
Calgary hailstorms 1991 $ 400 Million Edmonton Tornado 1987 $ 300 Million
British Colombia Blizzard 1996-1997 $ 200 Million Hurricane Juan and White Juan 2003-2004 $ 100 Million
Uncertainty regarding the nature of climate change should not be a basis for
delaying adaptation strategies, but rather serve to focus on adaptation measures to help
address current vulnerabilities through expanding coping ranges and increasing
adaptive capacity. Adaptive capacity is defined “as the ability of a system to adjust to
climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential
damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences” (IPCC
2001b). With increased recognition of the need to address climate change impacts, the
government of Canada has conducted several studies on the most sensitive sectors
and on the adaptive capacity of various regions in Canada (Forbes et al. 1998, Lemmen
and Warren 2004, Forbes et al. 2006, Lemmen et al. 2008). Although some adaptation
strategies can be implemented at the national or global level, the majority of adaptation
efforts will occur at the local level in response to the vulnerabilities of individual
communities or municipalities.
Canadian municipalities continue to demonstrate leadership in greenhouse gas
mitigation efforts and are poised to lead the way in adaptation to climate change, with
46
several municipalities across the North America implementing adaptation strategies
(see The Heinz Center Survey of Climate Change Adaptation Planning 2006). Cities
are vulnerable to climate change as they concentrate people and infrastructure into
small geographic areas, and because the population is highly dependent on local
infrastructure such as water and power distribution, communications systems and sewer
and wastewater removal (Penney and Wieditz 2007). The City of Saint John is
beginning to see the impacts of climate change, with increases in the number of hot
days every year and most markedly with changes in the patterns of extreme weather
events. Currently, most of the cities that are developing or have developed adaptation
strategies began the process after experiencing a severe weather event that resulted in
large economic losses and, in some cases, the loss of human life (e.g. Hurricane Juan
and White Juan caused over $100 million in damages to the Halifax Regional
Municipality and spawned Climate SMART). Saint John can avoid this mistake by
initiating the adaptation process before it becomes impacted by an extreme weather
event that results in severe economic costs and risks to human health. This chapter of
the report examines the adaptive capacity of Saint John, based on the vulnerabilities
identified in the previous two chapters, and presents some possible adaptive strategies.
This report presents steps that Saint John has already taken to address climate impacts
and presents ideas and strategies from other municipalities that could help Saint John
increase its adaptive capacity. This chapter also provides recommendations on how
Saint John can begin the process of addressing climate change and working towards
developing a comprehensive adaptation strategy.
Vulnerability Assessments
It is important to understand the nature of the current climate and what changes
are expected in the future to effectively assess the adaptive capacity of the city. One of
the key first steps in developing an appropriate adaptive strategy is the assessment of
current and historical climate trends and future projections for the city, as is seen in
Chapters 2 and 3 of this report. Saint John has been experiencing subtle changes in
climate over the last century, with increases in the number of hot summer days and
shifts in patterns of precipitation. However, Saint John is expected to see more
47
pronounced changes in climate over the next 100 years, with an upward shift in
temperature and more severe precipitation events. Current climate trends are having
negative impacts on the City and will only get worse in the future. The analysis of
climate provides the baseline for a vulnerability assessment of the city, helping to
identify regions and infrastructure that are at risk from climate impacts.
The Marsh Creek watershed is the most vulnerable area of the city to climate and
extreme weather impacts, with inland flooding regularly occurring in residential and
commercial areas during heavy precipitation events (Figure 4.1). Hydrological studies
carried out by Proctor and Redfern Ltd. (1976) identified significant flood risks during
storm events and recommended a number of flood management measures including;
an increase in floodway storage along Marsh Creek and Majors Brook, structural and
channel improvements, local drainage improvements and strict zoning regulations. This
area is still vulnerable and more recent studies, including this one, have highlighted that
it is vulnerable both to inland flooding and to storm surges as sea level continues to rise
(Martec 1986; Drisdelle 2007). The city has recently hired consultants to develop a new
stormwater strategy to address some of these issues, particularly existing problems in
the Marsh Creek watershed. The results from this report suggest that Marsh Creek will
become more vulnerable to climate impacts in the future as a result of severe
precipitation events and rising sea level.
The current and projected patterns in precipitation also present risks for
numerous regions and sectors of city infrastructure. Saint John is seeing a shift to more
precipitation events in the winter, and an increase in the number of days with
precipitation each year. These patterns are projected to continue, resulting in more
severe and potentially more frequent extreme precipitation events. Winter rain events
often result in more severe flooding, as demonstrated by events in the winter of 2008
(Figure 4.1), as ice cover results in greater impervious surface area within the city and
increased overland water velocity. This leads to increased flooding in low lying areas
and potential contamination of drinking water sources, as was seen in February 2008
when a 10 day boil water advisory was issuedfor the central and eastern portions of
Saint John.
48
Figure 4.1 – Examples of locations in Saint John that are currently prone to inland flooding during heavy rain events. The top two pictures were from precipitation events in the winter of 2008, while the bottom two pictures were from precipitation events in the summer of 2006.
Although Saint John is not expected to see drastic increases in mean
temperature, it is projected that Saint will experience more hot summer days. This may
contribute to more occurrences of smog days within the city, especially in light of the
new industrial developments in the regions, such as the Canaport Liquefied Natural Gas
facility and the potential Irving Eider Rock oil refinery. Saint John has seen small
improvements in air quality, as indicated by the recent air quality report (DENV 2008),
but an increase in industrial development coupled with more frequent hot days could
result in worsening air quality in the Saint John region. More detailed analysis of
emissions scenarios and atmospheric modeling are needed to determine potential
climate associated impacts.
Simpson Drive
Golden Grove Road McAllister Mall
McAllister Mall
49
Saint John, a coastal city already vulnerable to the effects of storm surge, could
see this vulnerability increase as sea level rises over the next 100 years. The exact
impacts of sea level rise on coastal cities depends on numerous and complex factors. A
complete assessment of potential impacts requires the examination of these factors,
such as prevailing wind and storm patterns, existing flood control measures, coastal
landform, and building and infrastructure on the coast (Penney and Wiedecki 2007).
The high tides of the Bay of Fundy offer some protection from storm surge events, but
storm surge events coinciding with mid to high tide can have drastic consequences as
seen from historical events such as the Saxby Gale and the Groundhog Day storm
(Desplanque and Mossman 1999). Conservative estimates of sea level rise for the
Saint John region predict a 0.70 m rise in sea level by 2100 (see Chapter 3), although
any change in the Greenland or Western Antarctic ice sheet could increase this figure
by over 1 m, resulting in increasing vulnerability to storm surge for many areas of the
Saint John waterfront. The storm surge maps in Chapter 3 identify numerous areas
that are vulnerable to storm surge as sea level rises, with some of the key areas, being
the Uptown waterfront, the current Irving oil refinery, Saint’s Rest Marsh and the Marsh
Creek floodplain (Figure 4.2). The Uptown and Marsh Creek areas present high risk
areas for residential and commercial losses from inundation of businesses and homes,
which could results in hundreds of thousands of dollars in damages. The Lancaster
Sewage Treatment Facility is of particular concern, as wave run-up or inland water flow
could breach of the existing berm during storm surge events, resulting in contaminated
water entering the marsh or leaching into the surrounding soil. Storm surge models
indicate the lower sections of the Irving pulp and paper mill, where the wastewater
storage tanks area located, are also at risk and could result in contaminated water flow
into the Saint John River.
This report provides a preliminary assessment of the climate change impacts on
Saint John, and while it should serve as a starting point for identifying what factors or
areas are in need of more in-depth investigation, it is by no means a comprehensive
vulnerability analysis. Impact assessments from other cities can help identify typical
areas of impact and methodology on assessment techniques to address sectors that
are in need of further investigation. Penney and Wiedecki (2007) highlight examples
50
from six large cities that have conducted detailed vulnerability assessments and identify
some of the key sectors in climate impact assessments (Table 4.3). Saint John needs
to identify what sectors need to be examined in greater detail and begin determine how
the projected climate changes will impact the sectors being studied. Adaptation to
climate change is a highly interdisciplinary field and effective strategies must involve a
variety of people including scientists, managers, municipal planners, policy-makers and
community members.
Figure 4.2 – Examples of some of the areas within the city that will become increasingly vulnerable to storm surge as a result of the impacts of sea level rise over the next 100 years.
RefinerySewage Lagoon
Uptown
Saint’s Rest Marsh
Floodplain
Likely’s Beach & Red Head Marsh
51
There are numerous experts and resources available federally and within the
Atlantic region to help Saint John begin this process. The Halifax Regional Municipality,
Saint John’s partner in the Atlantic Canada Sustainability Initiative, has taken a
leadership role in addressing climate change, and the Climate SMART program is
recognized as one of the most innovative programs in North America.
Table 4.3 – Key sectors for climate change impact assessments, as identified from assessments carried out by various other cities during the development of adaptation strategies.
Key Sectors Components Water resources Drinking water, sewer services Energy demand & supply Changes in energy demand or generation Transport Roads, rail, shipping, air travel Buildings/housing Vulnerable structures and zones Ecosystems Wetlands and others Coastal impacts Flooding, storm surge Public health Heat, air quality, infectious disease Social impacts Vulnerable groups (e.g. low income, elderly)
Adaptation Options
Adaptation policy cuts across departmental and sectoral boundaries of municipal
government and needs to be factored into the decision making process at all levels.
Addressing adaptation may require institutional reform or restructuring, and innovations
need to be supported by integrated science and policy (Burton 2006). There are
generic adaption options that are effective strategies for almost all cities and serve as a
good base to begin the process of identifying options to move forward with (Medhi et al.
2006). The logical first step is to begin adopting ‘no-regret’ policies and infrastructure
improvements. No-regrets climate adaptation refers to actions that provide benefit to
the community even if the anticipated climate changes do not materialize (Medhi et al.
2006). Adopting no-regrets policies, common sense and long-term planning can make
a large difference in avoiding an increase in vulnerability. Hasty decision making or
52
recovery efforts after a disaster can increase vulnerability if climate impacts are not
taken into account, resulting in more development in hazard zones and limited
improvements in infrastructure design (Burton 2006). Adaptation options can take many
forms, including; infrastructure change, simple shifts in development policy, building
codes, incentives and land use strategies. Saint John has taken some small steps
already to address climate change including; LiDAR survey of the Marsh Creek
watershed, Flood Risk by-law for the 1 in 100 year flood plain and the new Eastern
Wastewater Treatment facility takes into account a 1 m rise in sea level. Adaptation
options fall into several categories, but are highly changeable depending on the
situation and needs of individual cities. The following sections present some adaptation
options for Saint John to address climate impacts and Appendix A provides a list of
detailed technical resources for climate adaptation planning and implementation.
Education
• Educate public about the risks of buying or building homes in areas vulnerable to
flooding, erosion or sea level rise.
• Provide guidance for developers on methods to identify and manage climate
associated risks, incorporate climate change into planning decisions, and
promote sustainable development. (see Climate SMART Developer’s risk
management guide; HRM 2007)
• Educate communities about climate change and associated risks and provide
resources to encourage local action to address climate change. (see Climate
SMART Community action guide to climate change and emergency
preparedness; HRM 2006)
Coastal/Inland flooding
• Comprehensive stormwater planning that incorporates new technologies and
designs that take into account expected changes in sea level and precipitation
patterns. Examples include; Incorporation of wetlands into stormwater system,
expand capacity of storm sewer systems, increased use of pervious surfaces
(e.g. grass parking lots, pervious concrete, green roofs), Low impact
53
development (Department of Environmental Resources 1999), Natural drainage
systems (see Case Study www.evergreen.ca/en/cg/pdf/Seattle%20AB.pdf).
• Protect and preserve existing wetlands within the city and restore wetlands that
previously provide flood protection. Significant amount of Saint John wetlands
have been lost as a result of commercial, industrial and residential development
within the city. Restoration and creation of wetlands in keys areas of the city
could provide significant flood protection (e.g. develop wetlands along Marsh
Creek to provide additional floodway storage)
• Installation or refurbishment of control structures (e.g. breakwaters, berms, etc.)
in key locations to reduce the vulnerability to storm surge. Raising the berm in
between the Lancaster Sewage Treatment facility and Saints Rest Marsh would
drastically reduce its vulnerability to storm surge.
• Converting flood prone areas to green spaces or natural ecosystems to act as
buffers to reduce negative impacts associated with flooding and provide more
pervious surfaces for absorption of overland water flow.
• Establishment of effective land use planning strategies to limit development in
areas vulnerable to erosion or flooding and to maintain existing. This could
include zoning bylaws to prevent development in areas that contain natural
systems (e.g. wetlands) that reduce flood risks.
Water Supply
• Reclamation and re-use of grey water and water from wastewater treatment
facilities for use in irrigation and industrial uses. Saint John is in the midst of
sewage systems upgrades associated with Harbour Clean-up and could
incorporate infrastructure to encourage these practices.
• Assess the risks to water reservoirs associated with increased precipitation
events. Implement strategies reduce the threat of overloading treatment facilities
• Educate the public about conservation and water management, encourage
practices that help reduce individual water consumption such as; residential
rainwater collection for use on lawns and gardens, alternative gardens (e.g. down
spout gardens), regular checks for leaks, and new high efficiency washers.
54
Health
• Development or warning systems and flood protections systems to reduce the
dangers associated with extreme weather events. Saint John has an Emergency
Management Organization that has implemented some programs to date, but a
large percentage of the population is not aware of the system and where to get
more information.
• Air pollution reductions measures to reduce increased air quality issues
associated with an increase in hot days. Simple responses include traffic
restrictions and improving public or alternate transportation systems.
The above adaptation options are by no means a comprehensive list of possible
adaptation strategies, but they provide examples of some of the strategies that could
help Saint John increase its adaptive capacity and begin to address the impacts of
climate change. Adaptation is a complex process and there are numerous challenges
to the developing adaption policy, with these three key errors defined by Wilkins (2007);
i) under-adaptation – climate impacts are underestimated, ii) over-adaptation – climate
change is not a significant factor in the decision resulting in overspending, and iii)
maladaptation – climate change is taken into consideration, but the wrong response
was chosen. Lessons from cities that have already begun that adaptation process
indicate that that researchers and private sector consultants can help drive the
adaptation agenda forward, but ultimately local government need create and fund
institutional mechanisms for the integration of climate change adaptation into the
decision making process to create a successful strategy (Penney and Wiedecki 2007).
Saint John is in the midst of numerous changes and it is well positioned to reduce the
economic and social risks associated with climate change further advance itself as a
leader in sustainable development.
55
Recommendations
It is now well established that climate change is occurring (IPCC 2001a, IPCC
2007) and this report outlines impacts that Saint John is already experiencing and
assesses what the likely impacts will be in the future. Over 80% of the Atlantic coastline
has been identified as sensitive to sea level rise and Saint John is located in a moderate
to high risk area (Shaw et al. 1998) making it vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise.
Historical records indicate that Saint John has been experiencing subtle changes in
climate, but these trends are expected to increase in the future resulting in significant
changes precipitation patterns and more frequent occurrences of high temperatures.
The impacts of climate change, more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events in
particular, pose a significant risk to the City of Saint John. Although the initial costs of
Box 4.1: Examples of Climate Adaptation from other Municipalities(information taken from comprehensive adaptation reports from each city, see Appendix a)
King County, US:
Land use strategies for global warming preparedness: King County Departments employ coordinated
strategies of land use to mitigate and adapt to global warming focusing on the preservation of open space,
forests and protection of existing watershed areas.
Floodwater Hazard Management Program: Policy focuses on the protection of watersheds, rivers and
coastal areas vulnerable to variable climate, including buying out homes in flood zones and elevating some
to minimize risk.
Brightwater Wastewater Treatment Plant: uses reclaimed water for irrigation and industrial uses
Boston, US:
Relocation of water treatment plant in Boston Harbour to account for sea level rise.
New York, US:
Creation of the Office of Long-term Planning and Sustainability tasked with integrating sustainable
development and environmental issues into city plan.
Greening the Bronx initiative to reduce the impacts of urban heat island effect.
London, UK:
Use of Sustainable drainage systems (SUDS) in new business parks and commercial developments, including
the use of permeable pavements, swales and detention ponds.
Full time Officer to develop adaptation strategy that through and integrated process involving city staff and
outside agencies.
Vancouver, CAN:
Integrated Stormwater Management Plan that will result in no net loss to the environmental quality, by
addressing erosion, drainage issues and protect communities from localized flooding.
56
the adaptation process can seem high, economic studies are indicating that the cost of
not preparing will be significantly higher and could lead to millions of dollars in damages
(Ruth et al. 2007). Adaptation responses and action plans can seem difficult to
implement with the timeframes of impacts seeming distant, often looking at 100 year
time scales and beyond, but cities worldwide are recognizing the importance of
addressing climate change and beginning the process of adaptation and integrating
climate change considerations within to the decision- and policy-making process. Long-
term thinking (50-100 years) and common sense in city planning will go a long way to
prevent cases of maladaptation and reduce the city’s vulnerability to the impacts of
climate change.
This report presents an initial assessment of how vulnerable Saint John is to the
impacts of climate change and presents some ideas to increase our adaptive capacity.
This report provides a starting point for a more detailed vulnerability assessment of the
city and the development of a comprehensive adaptation strategy. The following
presents a simple framework for the adaptation process (Figure 4.3) and some key
recommendations for Saint John to begin addressing climate change.
Figure 4.3 – Simple framework outlining the major steps within the adaptation process.
Build Awareness
Engage Stakeholders
& City Staff
Assess Climate Trends
Vulnerability AssessmentCurrent & Future
Adaptation Options Identification of options and
analysis of existing policies
Evaluate and Prioritize
Implement Adaptation
Strategy
Monitor and Evaluate
57
1. Carry out a detailed vulnerability assessment of the City of Saint John. This
would involve; i) a thorough assessment of current and future climate trends,
some available in this report and more detailed analysis available from Climate
Change Division of Environment Canada, Atlantic region, ii) High resolution
topographical mapping of the city (e.g. LiDAR) to help conduct detailed flood
models and hydrological modeling, iii) Identification of vulnerable areas within the
city (as seen in the previous section) and inventory of vulnerable infrastructure,
iv) Impact assessment of the key sectors within the city (water resources, flood
risks, energy use, health and security, building/development and transport). This
involves engaging affected stakeholders, including city officials, city staff, public
and private-sector companies, and community members.
2. Integrated policy that combines mitigation and adaptation is the best method to
address climate change, where strategies will help reduce risk from climate
impacts and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
3. Climate change concerns must be integrated into the decision making process at
all levels and across all departments of the municipal government. Adaptation is
a policy agenda that cuts across departmental and sectoral boundaries (Burton
2006) and must be imbedded into the municipal planning process and policy
development process.
4. Begin the process now, before a major event. Kirshen et al. (2004) states
anticipatory action results in significantly less total adaptation costs than taking
no action. The majority of cities that began the adaptation process did so in the
wake of an extreme weather event that resulted in serious economic losses.
Saint John has seen an increase in precipitation events resulting in flooding,
property damage and increased erosion, but has not had a major event. Saint
would save millions of dollars by investing in the adaptation process now and
preventing the economic losses seen in other cities (e.g. Halifax, New Orleans,
Toronto).
58
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6. Appendix
APPENDIX A
Guides and Manuals for Adaptation to Climate Change
BEST (Better Environmentally Sound Transportation). Offering innovative programs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and encourage cycling, walking, public transportation and carpooling. www.best.bc.ca.
Birch Hill Geosolutions. 2007. Climate Change Adaptations for Land use Planners. Project A1209. http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/projdb/178_e.php. pp. 159.
Burnham, C. 2006. A guide to climate change for small- to medium- sized enterprises. Canadian Chamber of Commerce and Pollution Probe. pp. 56. www.pollutionprobe.org.
CIRIA (Construction Industry Research and Information Association). SUDS. Sustainable drainage systems: promoting good practice. www.ciria.org/suds/index.html.
Feenstra, J.F., I. Burton, J.B. Smith, and R.S.J. Tol (eds). 1998. Handbook on methods for climate change impacts assessment and adaptation strategies. United Nations Environment Programme. Amsterdam, The Netherlands. 464 pp.
Greater London Authority. 2005. Adapting to climate change: a checklist for development, Guidance on designing developments in a changing climate. Three Regions Climate Change Group. London, UK. 72 pp.
Halifax Regional Municipality. 2007. Climate Change: Developer’s risk management guide. Climate SMART. Halifax, NS. 26 pp.
Halifax Regional Municipality. 2006. Community action guide to climate change and emergency preparedness. Climate SMART. Halifax, NS. 23 pp.
MOE (Ontario Ministry of the Environment). 2003. Stormwater Management Planning and Design Manual. www.ene.gov.on.ca/envision/gp/4329eindex.htm.
Perkins, B., D. Ojima, and R. Corell. 2007. A survey of climate change adaptation planning. The Heinz Center. Washington, D.C. 52 pp.
Stewart, P., R. Rutherford, H. Levy, and J. Jackson. 2003. A guide to land use planning in coastal areas of the Maritime provinces. Oceans and Environment Branch. Canadian Technical Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences No. 2443. 177 pp.
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Wulkan, B, S Tilley, and T Droscher. 2003. Natural Approaches to stormwater management: low impact development in Puget Sound. Puget Sound Action Team: Office of the Governor. Olympia, WA. 55 pp.
Coastal and/or Climate Change Policy Examples
Coastal Resources Management Council. 1996. The State of Rhode Island Coastal Resources Management Program – As Amended. 270 pp. www.crmc.ri.gov/regulations/programs/redbook.pdf
Maine State Planning Office. 2001. Maine Coastal Plan: Assessment and Strategy under Section 309 of the Coastal Zone Management Act. 93 pp. www.maine.gov.spo/mcp/downloads/309_reports/final_309A&S.pdf
New Zealand Climate Change Office. 2004. Coastal hazards and climate change; A guidance for local government in New Zealand. Ministry for the Environment. Wellington, New Zealand. 145 pp.
Nova Scotia Department of Energy. 2007. Climate Change in Nova Scotia; A background paper to guide Nova Scotia’s Climate Action Plan. www.gov.ns.ca/energy/energystrategy/
Health
Robichaud, A.G. 2007. Operation White Tide: Evaluating the capacity of the Atlantic coastal communities to adapt to extreme events related to climate change. Natural Resources Canada. http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/projdb/158_e.php
Adaptation Resources on the Web
ADAM Project (Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies: supporting European climate policy) www.adamproject.eu/
Adaptation Network www.adaptationnetwork.org/
AIACC (Assessments of impacts and adaptations to climate change in multiple regions and sectors) www.aiaccproject.org/
Environmental Protection Agency – Adaptations www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/adaptation.html
Natural Resource Canada – Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/index_e.php
UK Climate Impacts Programme www.ukcip.org.uk/
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APPENDIX B Table B2 – Current provincial and territorial strategies, initiatives and best practices for addressing impacts and adaptation to climate change.
Alberta Alberta Climate Change Adaptation Team Incorporation of mitigation and adaptation strategies into departmental
management plans Research to improve adaptive capacity Provincial vulnerability assessment project (environmental, economic
and social) Climate scenarios for the 2020’s, 2050’s and 2080’s (Prairie Adaptation
Research Collaborative) Built Green Program Green Cities Initiative British Columbia Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium Future Forests Ecosystem Initiative (Adapting to climate impacts on
forestry) Incorporation of climate risks into park management plans Storm surge modeling and forecasting Report: Indicators of climate for British Columbia Conferences on climate impact and adaptation Government to carbon neutral by 2010 Conferences and workshops on climate change impacts and adaptation
Manitoba Green building policy: all new buildings and major renovation projects by government or other organizations receiving provincial funding must be at least 33% better than the Model National Energy Code for Buildings and be certified LEED Silver or better
Green Building Policy Sustainable planning based on climate change adaptation and impacts
on the boreal forest and First Nations communities on the east side of Lake Winnipeg
Integrated watershed planning/evaluation of best management practices project
Expansion of flood management infrastructure to include floodway around capital
New Brunswick New Brunswick Climate Change Secretariat and other relevant NB departments
Environmental procurement guidelines; sustainable building practices such as LEED; retrofitting of public buildings
Promotion of climate change activities by community groups and universities through the Environmental Trust Fund
Sea-level rise project Integration of climate change considerations into decision-making
processes involving economic, social and environmental considerations Newfoundland High environmental standards for infrastructure projects receiving public
funds Incorporation of climate change and sustainable development issues into
high school science curriculum
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Development of a land use policy Participation in development of national and local strategies to address
long-term impacts of climate change and identify appropriate adaptation initiatives
Impact and adaptation plan for the NT City of Yellowknife Adaptation Plan Northwest Territories
Good Building Practice for Northern Facilities
Incorporation of climate change into the primary and secondary curricula Steps to protect infrastructure from increased permafrost problems
encountered throughout the NT Nova Scotia Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network Adapting to changing climate in Nova Scotia (2004) Study of climate change impacts on the Halifax Harbour ClimAdapt Halifax Climate Sustainable Mitigation and Adaptation Risk Toolkit Nunavut Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network Nunavut Climate Change Adaptation Plan
Ontario Climate change projections for Ontario: practical information for policymakers and planners (2007)
Climate change and Ontario’s provincial parks: towards an adaptation strategy (2007)
Coastal zone management under a changing climate in the Great Lakes
Prince Edward Island
Greening government initiative: government-wide use of processes, materials and energy minimize creation of pollutants and waste, and reduce overall risk to human health and the environment
Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network Exploration of opportunities to improve capacity for adaptation planning
(e.g. hazard mapping) Quebec Best practices guide for urban management Ouranos Consortium Interministerial Committee on Climate Change Operating agreement between the Consortium on regional climatology
and adaptation to climate change (Ouranos) and its partners Framework for natural hazard prevention
Saskatchewan Climate Change Saskatchewan Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative Expansion of provincial watershed planning process to better protect
water supplies Yukon Northern Climate ExChange Yukon climate change action plan Work with all levels of government on comprehensive adaptive strategies
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About the Author
Ian Reeves
Ian started his education in Forest Engineering at UNB in Fredericton, NB, but quickly discovered that the only part he liked about Forest Engineering and was the forest. After two years, he transferred to Trent University in Peterborough, ON to pursue a degree in biology with a focus on plant ecology and conservation. Ian graduated in 2003 with a B.Sc Hons. in Biology, following which he took a year off to teach rock climbing, mountain navigation and outdoor education in the Swiss and Austrian Alps before returning to Trent to pursue a Masters in biology in the Watershed Ecosystems Graduate program. He spent the next 2 ½ years hanging from wires 20 metres off the ground studying the regulation of gas exchange in the canopy of a mature Sugar Maple forest. After completing his masters, Ian spent 7 months in South America learning to speak Spanish and working for Global Vision International as an Expedition Scientist and base camp manager, where he spent 4 months living in Lanin National Park, Argentina and working with local ecologists and biologists helping study the impacts of invasive species on Auracaria and Southern Beech forests. Ian spent the last year working for ACAP Saint John as a climate change specialist, researching climate impacts and adaptation, learning about wetland management and community environment work. When not in the office he is likely to be found on the nearest field playing Ultimate or the nearest cliff climbing and he is looking forward to exploring the ocean, mountains and ecology of a new place as he prepares to move to Christchurch, NZ with his wife as she pursues her PhD in Ecology.