Climate Change Chapter 1 a Users Guide to the Crisis of Civilization by Ahmed1

8/12/2019 Climate Change Chapter 1 a Users Guide to the Crisis of Civilization by Ahmed1

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A Users Guide to the Crisis of Civilization: And How to Save It

1. Climate Catastrophe

What is climate change? Is it a product of natural cyclical variations in the Earths

ecological systems, or is it a consequence of human activities? What are the implications of

climate change for the international system? How serious are the ramifications of climate

change for the continuity of modern industrial civilization? This chapter egins y

confronting the ma!or pulic"media deates regarding the causality of climate change,

reviewing the main arguments that challenge the idea that contemporary gloal warming is

due to fossil fuel emissions and therefore human"induced #anthropogenic$% The relevant

scientific literature is e&plored to discern whether we can e sure that climate change is

happening, and why%

I then e&plore the implications of climate change for national security, finding that a variety

of Western security agencies recognize that climate change will drastically alter the gloal

security landscape for the foreseeale future without significant preventive action% The focus

of this analysis is not to list the specific conflicts that might arise #an e&ercise performed

frequently elsewhere$,'ut to assess the overarching ramifications of gloal warming for the

ability of modern industrial civilization in its current form to survive% The analysis then

e&tends to a critical e&amination of the conventional narrative of the rate of gloal warming

as descried y the (nited )ations Intergovernment *anel on +limate +hange #I*++$, and as

generally endorsed y Western states% I argue that cutting"edge scientific research provides

compelling evidence that the current rate of gloal warming is far faster, and igger, than the

() models predicted% Integrating the impact of positive feedacs in the Earths climate

systems, suggests the proaility of a worst"case climate scenario well efore the end of the

-'stcentury . unless significant preventive and mitigating actions are taen%

/ut such actions must go far eyond the mere question of reducing emissions% Emissions

reductions have largely een addressed in a socio"political and economic vacuum, divorced

from the real"world systemic changes required to drastically reduce energy consumption in

general, and utilise cleaner and more energy"efficient technologies ased on renewale

energies in particular% 0et this inattention to the gloal systemic origins of the ecological


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crisis is part of a long"term trend, evidenced y the fact that policymaers have largely

ignored several decades of dire warnings issued y the worlds leading climate and

environmental scientists% Therefore, for civilization to survive eyond the -' stcentury will

require fundamentalglobal systemic changeat the very heart of modern industrial social

relations% 1nly in the conte&t of such systemic change can the prospect of a post"caron

civilization that is no longer dependent on the unrelenting e&ploitation of hydrocaron

energies e realized%

1.1 A Debate Resolved? Current Climate Change is UnequivocallyAnthropogenic

The Scientific Consensus

Human"emissions generated climate change is perhaps the most prominent gloal crisis in

pulic consciousness . its e&istence is now readily acnowledged y most governments

including the (nited 2tates, even if reluctantly, and it is generally recognized that urgent

steps are required to prevent the prospect of mass e&tinction% What is missing from the

official discourse on climate, however, is not simply an acnowledgement of the real e&tent

and gravity of the civilizational catastrophe it poses, ut the corresponding measures required

to prevent or avert such catastrophe%

Figure Global Temperature Land-Ocean Index. Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies !!

"anuar# $%%&'

2ince '344 there has een an appro&imately 4%5 degree +elsius #+$ rise in gloal average

temperature #see 6igure '$% /ut as 6igure - depicts, this increase cannot e accounted for y

natural variations of solar and volcanic activity, nor y human"induced sulphate emissions,

which act to reduce gloal temperature% It is only y including the impact of human"induced

caron dio&ide #+1-$ emissions that climate models are ale to accurately simulate the rise in

gloal temperatures over the previous century of industrial civilization%


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Figure (limate ()ange Attribution. Source: Stanford Solar (entre* Stanford +ni,ersit# $%%&'

Industrial civilization derives almost all its energy from the urning of fossil fuels, pumping

caron dio&ide into the atmosphere . with the e&ception of appro&imately -"7 per cent from

renewale and nuclear sources% The emissions of primarily +1-. ut also nitrous o&ide,

methane, chlorofluorocarons, among other greenhouse gases . from the industries that drive

our economies and sustain our infrastructures, are the main engine of gloal warming in the

last few decades% This does not mean that all climate change is solely due to human"induced

+1-emissions% 2cientists acnowledge that there are many other factors involved in climate

change, such as solar activity, as well as periodic changes in the Earths orit% 0et they have

overwhelmingly confirmed that these are not the primary factors currently driving gloal

warming%

8loal warming septics often point to the fact that human"induced +1-emissions are tiny

compared to natural emissions from ocean and vegetation% What they forget, however, is that

natural emissions are alanced y natural asorptions y ocean and vegetation% This natural

alance has ecome increasingly unstale due to additional +1-emissions from human

industrial activities% In terms of natural emissions, consumption of vegetation y animals and

microes accounts for aout --4 gigatonnes of +1-per year% 9espiration y vegetation emits

around --4 8igatonnes #8t$% The ocean releases aout 774 8t% This totals to aout 554 8t of

natural emissions% In terms of natural absorptions, land plants asor aout ::4 8t of caron

per year and the ocean asors aout 774 8t, again roughly totaling at aout 554 8t% This

emission"asorption parity #554 8t released and 554 asored$ ensures that natural

atmospheric +1-levels remain in overall alance even as emissions and asorptions fluctuate

over time% In comparison human emissions are only around -;%: 8t per year% The prolem is

that this seemingly small addition of +1 -into the atmosphere y industrialization cannot beabsorbed by the planet% 1nly aout :4 per cent is actually asored, largely y oceans,

leaving ;4 per cent in the atmosphere% Worse still, the oceans are increasingly losing their

aility to asor +1-, with the 2outhern 1cean and )orth


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The ma!ority of scientific studies show that climate sensitivity to +1 -emissions is high, or

in other words that +1-emissions induce large increases in gloal temperature% espite the

media images of a raging deate among climate scientists, the fundamentals are agreed on .

the direct connection etween +1-and gloal temperatures has een empirically oserved y

analysis of ice cores, paleoclimate records, oservations of ocean heat uptae, and

temperature responses to the solar cycle, among other data% The empirically"focused studies

including pulished research from the '334s to -443, show that douled +1 -emissions

would contriute to warming at least within the range of '%: to : degrees +% 7

The origins of current climate change are therefore no longer a matter of serious scientific

deate% The landmar declaration came in -445, when the (nited )ations Intergovernmental

*anel on +limate +hange #I*++$ pulished its 6ourth

It is therefore important to recognize that claims y septics that there is no scientific

consensus on climate change are deeply misleading% The scientific consensus can e

discerned not only from the I*++, ut from other meta"analyses of the peer"reviewed

literature% In -44:, (2 geoscientist )aomi 1reses, *rofessor of History and 2cience 2tudies

at the (niversity of +alifornia, 2an iego, conducted a survey of the 3-C peer"reviewed

scientific papers on gloal climate change from '337 to -447% 2he found that 5> per cent

e&plicitly or implicitly accepted the consensus view, while -> per cent too no position and

dealt purely with methods or paleoclimateF


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@9emaraly, none of the papers disagreed with the consensus position%%% Dany detailsaout climate interactions are not well understood, and there are ample grounds forcontinued research to provide a etter asis for understanding climate dynamics% Thequestion of what to do aout climate change is also still open% /ut there is a scientificconsensus on the reality of anthropogenic climate change% +limate scientists have

repeatedly tried to mae this clear% It is time for the rest of us to listen%A ;

Efforts to disprove the e&istence of this scientific consensus remain poor% 6or instance,

although social anthropologist /enny *eisner attempted to refute 1reses findings in his

own survey of the same peer"reviewed papers, he managed to flag"up only 7: studies which

he claimed raised douts aout anthropogenic gloal warming% This is a tiny fraction . only

7%; per cent . of the scientific papers from this period% +lose inspection of the actual astracts

shows not only that the vast ma!ority do notre!ect the scientific consensus at all, ut that

those few which can e interpreted as casting some dout were not actually peer"reviewed%5

In the end, *eisner himself was forced to retract his criticismsF @1nly few astracts e&plicitly

re!ect or dout the


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een found to support anthropogenic climate change and despite repeated efforts to dissociate

themselves from the report, continue to remain on the list% '-

E&amples of flagrant misrepresentation in the report are rife% 1n the list, for instance, is

@prominent scientistA 9ay urzweil . not a scientist ut an inventor% Worse, urzweil is not

even a gloal warming septic% 9ather, he argued that


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@/ut hes notK 9oecner was referring to the I*++s emissions scenarios, which involveassumptions aout the rate of growth of greenhouse"gas emissionsG We already now thatemissions are growing faster than the I*++s worst"case scenario, and thats ad news, notgood%

4A to the official warning issued y the

worlds largest society of Earth scientists, the


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@=ones is taling aout how scientists compare temperature data from thermometers withtemperature data derived from tree rings% +omparing that data allows scientists to derive

past temperature data for several centuries efore accurate thermometer measurementswere availale% The gloal average surface temperature since 'CC4 is ased onthermometer and satellite temperature measurements%%%

In some parts of the world, tree rings are a good sustitute for temperature record% Treesform a ring of new growth every growing season% 8enerally, warmer temperatures producethicer tree rings, while colder temperatures produce thinner ones% 1ther factors, such as

precipitation, soil properties, and the trees age also can affect tree ring growth%The Btric, which was used in a paper pulished in '33C in the science !ournal )ature, is

to comine the older tree ring data with thermometer data% +omining the two data setscan e difficult, and scientists are always interested in new ways to mae temperaturerecords more accurate%

Tree rings are a largely consistent source of data for the past -,444 years% /ut since the'3;4s, scientists have noticed there are a handful of tree species in certain areas thatappear to indicate temperatures that are warmer or colder than we actually now they are

from direct thermometer measurement at weather stations%BHiding the decline in this email refers to omitting data from some 2ierian trees after

'3;4% This omission was openly discussed in the latest climate science update in -445from the I*++, so it is not Bhidden at all%

Why 2ierian trees? In the 0amal region of 2ieria, there is a small set of trees withrings that are thinner than e&pected after '3;4 when compared with actual thermometermeasurements there% 2cientists are still trying to figure out why these trees are outliers%2ome analyses have left out the data from these trees after '3;4 and have usedthermometer temperatures instead% Techniques lie this help scientists reconstruct pastclimate temperature records ased on the est availale data%A


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Thus, (+2 rightly concluded that whoever stole the emails @could only produce a handful

of messages that, when taen out of conte&t, might seem suspicious to people who are not

familiar with the intimate details of climate science%A --

The conclusion is simpleF claims that gloal warming is not happening, or if happening has

nothing or little to do with human activities, fall outside the e&isting scientific consensus, and

often come from people with vested political or economic interests, for whom the study of

climate is outside their professional qualifications and field of e&pertise% The Bseptic

strategy is simpleF to misquote, quote of conte&t, andMor misrepresent the statements and

findings of real climate scientists% 0et despite their lac of crediility, these claims and the

ad science they rest on, frequently receive widespread media coverage% /efore e&amining

the impacts of climate change, I critically review some of the most prominent Bseptical

approaches to anthropogenic climate change which try to deny the role of human activities,

finding them to e deeply unscientific%

Solar Activity and Climate Variation

1ne of the most common misconceptions cited y Bman"made climate septics #hereafter

referred to simply as Bclimate septics or Bseptics$ is that the 2un is the primary cause ofcontemporary gloal warming% The Earths climate history does evince a close correlation

etween solar activity and gloal temperature change% 4 years% The scientists argue that @long"term climate variations are

affected y solar magnetic activity%A 0et the same study points out that the correlation

etween solar activity and temperature ceased in 195, after which gloal average

temperatures escalated despite solar activity remaining stationaryF @)ote that the most recent

warming, since around '35>, has een considered in the aove correlations% uring these last

74 years the solar total irradiance, solar (N irradiance and cosmic ray flu& has not shown any

significant secular trend, so that at least this most recent warming episode must have another

source%A-7

2imilar conclusions have een reiterated independently throughout the scientific literature%

Dore recently in -44C, a study pulished yNaturenoted that @the level of solar activity


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during the past 54 years is e&ceptionalA and @may indicate that the 2un has contriuted to the

unusual climate change during the twentieth century%A 0et it goes on to confirm that @solar

variaility is unliely to e the prime cause of the strong warming during the last three

decades%%% even under the e&treme assumption that the 2un was responsile for all the gloal

warming prior to '354, at the most 74 per cent of the strong warming since then can e of

solar origin%A-:


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Oined to this misconception is the claim that gloal warming has stoppedsince 199#% The

argument is that due to the lapse in sunspot activity as well as cyclical variations of gloal

warming and cooling, the coming decades will constitute a period of prolonged global

cooling#also see ne&t su"chapter$% > to P'355 #cool cycle$, then retreated rapidly from P'355 to the

present #warm cycle$%A This correlates with the period of gloal warming which therefore

appears to e an outcome of such oscillations% @If the trend continues, the current warm cycle

should end soon,A and gloal warming will e over for another -> years%-5/y implication,

gloal warming is nothing to worry aoutK In the ne&t section, we loo at this question . did

gloal warming stop in '33C #or -44'$ . in more detail, ut efore that, it is important to

understand the deeper misconceptions underlying Easterroos approach%

6irstly, he proffers a rather eccentric argument, indeed, a lone voice in the scientific

community, with no wider corrooration in the relevant peer"reviewed literature% 2econdly,

his paper itself was not peer"reviewed and remains unpulished in any recognized relevant

physical science !ournal% These prolems should oviously raise our initial suspicions%

Thirdly, further e&amination of one of Easterroos own e&amples, the *acific ecadal

1scillation #*1$ vindicates them% , the *1

switched to a warm phase as gloal warming egan% In '3:;, the *1 switched to a cool

phase as temperatures cooled mid"century% In '355, the *1 switched to a warm phase

around the same time as the modern gloal warming period% These correlations, for

Easterrooe, prove that gloal warming is nothing more than the function of natural

oscillations in the Earths climate that will inevitaly give way to gloal cooling, efore

giving rise to another cycle of warming%


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However, as 6igure 7 shows, while the *1 does have some degree of correlation with

short term variations in gloal temperature, this is star$ly outweighed by the contrast% While

the *1 oscillates etween positive and negative values roughly along the same level, global

average temperatures in the same period display an unambiguous long%term warming trend%-C

To account for gloal temperature increases since the dawn of the twentieth century requires

totalling the impact from all relevant forcings including solar, aerosols, +1 -emissions, and

so on% /y itself, the *1 does not provide an adequate e&planation for gloal warming%

Figure acific ecadal Oscillation (ompared to Actual Global A,erage Temperature /ise. Source: "o)n

(oo0* S0eptical Science 1 2a# $%%&' based on data from "oint Institute for t)e Stud# of t)e Atmosp)ere

and t)e Ocean* 3as)ington +ni,ersit#


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eenlyside, 9omm pointed out that the researchers did not e&pect a rise in @ mean

temperatureA etween -44> and -4'>, ut that this did not preclude any rise in, for e&ample,

gloal surface temperatures% The study, rather, e&plains why gloal average temperatures

@have not risen very much in recent years, and, perhaps, why ocean temperatures have also

not risen very much in the past few years%A In the correspondence, r% eenlyside e&plicitly

acnowledges that their data implies a rapid rise in gloal average temperature after -4'4F

@However, as you correctly point out, our results show a pic up in gloal mean temperature

for the following decade #-4'4"-4-4$%


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that we have definitely entered a period of gloal cooling has een endorsed y several other

non"climate scientists% 6or instance, in -44; the &elegraphcarried a piece y /o +arter, an


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Figure Global 3arming Trend !77&-$%%8. Source: /obert Fa6cett* 5ulletin of t)e Australian

2eteorological and Oceanograp)ic Societ# $%%8'

It is therefore clear that the apparent cooling trend witnessed from around -445 was an

outcome of several ma!or factors including not only the *1 and


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reduction in Total 2olar Irradiance #T2I$ . that is, the total amount of radiant energy emitted

y the 2un hitting the top of the Earths atmosphere, measured in watts per square metre

#WMm-$%


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gloal scenario that @is plausile, and would challenge (nited 2tates national security in

ways that should e considered immediately%A +limate change, the report urged, @should e

elevated eyond a scientific deate to a (2 national security concern%A ismissing douts

aout the scientific validity of climate change, the report argued thatF

@There is sustantial evidence to indicate that significant gloal warming will occurduring the -'st centuryG 9ecent research, however, suggests that there is a possiility thatthis gradual gloal warming could lead to a relatively arupt slowing of the oceansthermohaline conveyor, which could lead to harsher winter weather conditions, sharplyreduced soil moisture, and more intense winds in certain regions that currently provide asignificant fraction of the worlds food production% With inadequate preparation, the resultcould e a significant drop in the human carrying capacity of the Earths environment%A :-

+oncerns over the national security implications of climate change were also aired in

Europe% In early -44C, a high"level European (nion #E($ report to -5 heads of governments

warned of the proaility of @significant potential conflictsA in coming decades due to

@intensified competition over access to, and control over, energy resources%A Written y

=avier 2olana, the E(s foreign policy chief, and /enito 6errero"Waldner, the E(

commissioner for e&ternal relations, the report argued that gloal warming would precipitate

ma!or security issues for Europe, such as mass migrations, failed states and political

radicalization% In particular, it noted that the quicened thawing of the


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precipitation patterns, causing more frequent floods and droughts

7$ isrupted access to energy supplies due to e&tensive sea ice and storminess%

9apid climate change, leading to catastrophic droughts, famines and rioting, would thus

effect mounting national and international tensions, mediated through defensive and offensive

strategies that could escalate into a terrifying arc of gloal conflicts, oriented around deadly

competition over control of increasingly scarce resourcesF @)ations with the resources to do

so may uild virtual fortresses around their countries, preserving resources for themselves%

Oess fortunate nations especially those with ancient enmities with their neighors, may

initiate in struggles for access to food, clean water, or energy%A The *entagon study thus

suggests not only that the threat to national security posed y rapid climate change is

potentially far worse than terrorism, ut further that the future arc of conflict will e aout

@resources for survival rather than religion, ideology, or national honor%A ::

0et the *entagon warning is only the tip of a rapidly melting iceerg% 1ver the last decade

alone, scientific studies have increasingly homed in on the dynamics, contours, and impacts

of climate change%


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The I*++ report generated alarm ells around the world aout the gravity of climate

change and its potentially fatal impact for life on Earth% 8oing further, /ritish ecologist Dar

Oynas translated the I*++s temperature rise scenarios into a detailed analysis of the scale of

gloal warming at each degree% In his oo "i 'egrees2 3ur 4uture on a etter !lanet.

winner of the 9oyal 2ociety 2cience /oo *rize . Oynas reviewed thousands of peer"

reviewed scientific studies and climate models, to try and show how each degree level

increase in the gloal average temperature is liely to change the face of the EarthF :;

'Q+ IncreaseF Ice"free sea asors more heat and accelerates gloal warming fresh waterlost from a third of the worlds surface low"lying coastlines flooded

-Q+ IncreaseF Europeans dying of heatstroe forests ravaged y fire stressed plants

eginning to emit caron rather than asoring it a third of all species face e&tinction

7Q+ IncreaseF +aron release from vegetation and soils speeds gloal warming death ofthe


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4This underscores the star inadequacy of demands to stailise +1-

emissions at '334 levels #the yoto *rotocols$ and to allow countries to produce their own

aritrary targets for emissions reductions #+openhagen$%

< further 8+* study in -44C found that in the preceding year, caron released from urning

fossil fuels and producing cement had increased -%3 percent over that released in -44;, to a

total of C%:5 8igatons #8t%$% This output is at the highest end of the I*++s worst"case

scenario% 2imilarly, in 1ctoer -44C, another paper pulished in the !roceedings of the

National 6cademy of "ciencesshowed that even if humans stopped generating greenhouse

gases immediately, the worlds average temperature would @most lielyA increase y -%:

degrees + y the end of this century . potentially enough to trigger irreversile, and

potentially even runaway climate change, as we will show elow%>'


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Figure 8 3orld nerg#-/elated (O$ missions b# Fuel T#pe* !77$-$%1%. Source: +S nerg# Information

Administration IA'* International nerg# Annual $%%; 2a#-"ul# $%%9'< IA* S#stem for t)e Anal#sis

of Global nerg# 2ar0ets $%%8'

1ne of the most widely"cited climatic models e&ploring the potential impact of suchenvironmental inertia was y the Det 1ffices Hadley +entre for +limate +hange% It was one

of several new studies recognizing that the gloal climate system is in a state of unstale

equilirium, in which surface heating caused y +1-can act as a trigger for an accelerating

process of gloal warming driven y amplifying @positive feedacsA, eventually leading to a

process of runaway climate change completely eyond human control% The further we move

away from unstale equilirium due to human"generated emissions, the more powerful

ecomes the positive feedac system, and thus the faster the rate of climate change% avid

Wasdell, lead scientist on feedac dynamics of comple& systems for the 8loal 2ystem

ynamics and *olicies *ro!ect of the European +ommission, has taen such findings much

further% He finds that many current gloal warming estimates focusing on the alleged safety

of the -Q+ limit could e quite off the mar, and that runaway climate change could egin y

mid"century%>-In this case, rather than gloal warming constituting a gradual, linear increase,

with greenhouse gasses eing asored and retained y the atmosphere, the illions of years

worth of caron and methane could e incontinently released in lazing surges that would

drown or incinerate whole cities% *olar ice would melt rapidly, and the


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Inaccuracies in the Inter#overnmental (anel on Climate Chan#e ,112'e%ort

< numer of /ritish researchers e&pressed grave reservations shortly after the release of the

() I*++ 6ourth


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(niversity, and a past lead author for the I*++F @;

The possile watering"down of the I*++s -445 6ourth $ @)ew or unusual administrative

requirements that impair climate"related worA ;$ @2ituations in which scientists have

actively o!ected to, resigned from, or removed themselves from a pro!ect ecause of

pressure to change scientific findings%A 2cientists reported :7> incidents of political

interference over the preceding five years% >52uch large"scale systematic political interference

with climate science lends credence to the concern that climate scientists feel unale to voice

their real views aout the urgency posed y gloal warming%

1." Abrupt Change through #$ipping %oints&

arth +oes !ot +o Gradual Chan#e

The proaility of the rapid acceleration of climate change at current rates of increase of

+1-emissions is therefore a pivotal issue% In the last few years, the weight of the availale

scientific evidence increasingly suggests that climate change will occur not through a long,

protracted linear process of gradual intensification, ut in the form of arupt shifts through

@tipping points%A


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In -44-, a comprehensive study y the (2 )ational ppm and fast rising% In the asence of


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mitigating strategies to reduce the amount of +1 -already in the atmosphere, thisguarantees

that the global mean temperature will rise by degreesefore the end of this century%

+onsequently, 2hine argued, some of the worst predicted effects of gloal warming, such as

the destruction of ecosystems and increased hunger and water shortages for illions of people

in the 2outh, could e unavoidale unless drastic action is taen to not only reduce emissions,

ut to remove +1-from the atmosphere%;'

2hines findings were corroorated y the I*++ in 1ctoer -445, concluding that the level

of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in mid"-44> had reached 885 ppm, a level not

e&pected for another '4 years% Dacquarie (niversity climate scientist Tim 6lannery

remaredF @We thought we had that much time% /ut the new data indicates that in aout mid"

-44> we crossed that threshold% What the report estalishes is that the amount of greenhouse

gas in the atmosphere is already aove the threshold that could potentially cause dangerous

climate change%A;-

When ased aout the implications, Tom /ure +/E, a former /ritish government

environment adviser for ': years,;7told the:ndependentF

@The passing of this threshold is of the most enormous significance% It means we haveactually entered a new era ; the era of dangerous climate change.We have passed the pointwhere we can e confident of staying elow the - degree rise set as the threshold for danger%

What this tells us is that we have already reached the point where our children can nolonger count on a safe climate%A;:

The - degree limit has een adopted y the European (nion as the ma&imum limit that

humanity can ris% @/eyond that,A notes *aul /rown, @as unwelcome changes in the earths

reaction to e&tra warmth continue, it is theoretically possile to trigger runaway climate

change, maing the earths atmosphere so different that most of life would e threatened%A ;>

< -44> !oint tas"force report y the Institute for *ulic *olicy 9esearch #I**9$ in the (,

the +enter for


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However, it is now ecoming clear that the - degree":>4 ppm E( limit is far too high, a

political figure adopted against sound scientific advice%


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The prolem is that each of these effects, proale even elow 7>4 ppm, have their own

positive feedac impacts, each with potentially irreversile consequences% < safe level of

emissions is somewhere elow 774 ppm . most liely, according to *rofessor =ohn

2chellnhuer of the *otsdam Institute, etween -C4 and 744 ppm%;3=e appear to have now

passed the tipping point, and at current rates of increase of C3emissions, we are well on

our way to breaching temperatures of -C and even , increasing

evidence that several ma!or climate su"system tipping points have thus een reached with

potentially irreversile consequences has emerged% These consequences, in turn, may trigger

the reaching of further tipping points, the cumulative impact of which could push the whole

Earth climate system into a self"reinforcing runaway warming process%

The Gulf Stream and the Arctic Ice Ca%

In Day -44>, climate scientists woring under *eter Wadhams, *rofessor of 1cean *hysics

at +amridge (niversity, announced they had found signs of a slowdown in the 8ulf 2tream,

otherwise nown as the thermohaline circulation #TH+$ . a huge convection system that

transports warm water from the tropics to the poles and send cool water ac through the

depths of the oceans% 1ne of its driving @engines,A the sining of supercooled water in the8reenland 2ea, had @weaened to less than a quarter of its former strengthA due largely to

gloal warming, liely to precipitate a drop in temperatures in the ( and northwest Europe%

Wadhams and his team also predicted that the slowing of the 8ulf 2tream might have other

effects, such as the complete summer melting of the , scientists on an e&pedition to the


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/y Darch -445, the traversal of this tipping point was no longer in dout% Dar 2erreze,

then at the (2 )ational 2now and Ice ata +entre #)2I+$ warned that the


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we have to avoidA, he warned%


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> The water ecomes less dense so does not sin as fast, weaening the Bconveyor

and therefore possily disrupting the 8ulf 2tream%C'

While potentially contriuting to cooling in northern Europe, a slow"down of the 8ulf

2tream would simultaneously lead to increasing droughts in other areas% This process is

already well underway and getting worse% some > illion

people gloally could e suffering from serious water shortages, half a illion of them due to

climate change%C:

While +limate sceptics often claim that this is evidence against gloal warming%

However, actually it proves the opposite% 1nce again, it is necessary to account for longer"

term climate trends and internal variaility to understand what is happening% < -447 study

pulished in "ciencefinds that detection of long"term change in


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@found the ice sheets mass has decreased significantly from -44- to -44>A, raising gloal sea

levels y aout '%- millimetres . aout '7 per cent of the overall oserved sea level rise for

this period%C5

In addition, the temporary increase of


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The levels of warming in the polar regions are merely isolated signifiers of the momentous

scale of climate changes that scientists are racing to eep up with% 2cientists have isolated a

total of '- eco"system @hotspotsA including the aove, which they consider to e especially

vulnerale to human"intervention%


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of which has een punctured due to melting% 2cientists say that a @release of up to >4 8t of

predicted amount of hydrate storage Sis highly possile for arupt release at any timeA . a

quantity equivalent to douling current levels of +1 -%3;


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y the scientists started dying, literally came crashing down, e&posing the forest floor to the

drying sun% /y the end of the year the trees had released more than two"thirds of the caron

dio&ide stored during their lives, thus accelerating climate change% The "-;

*entagrams #*g$ of caron in less than three decades . that is, 15%A billion metric tonnes of

carbon%'4-The massive influ& of caron could accelerate gloal warming y as much as

'%>Q+ on top of the preceding temperature increase% With each rise in temperature, positive

feedacs such as this would e intensified with irreversile impacts% These in turn would

increase the proaility of an unstoppale escalation of gloal temperatures%

=ust as trees may well end up contriuting further to climate change as gloal warming

accelerates, the same also applies to soil% 1ne quarter of our caron emissions are now eing

asored y the soil, ut its capacity to do so is decreasing%


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they pose the danger of triggering rapid, irreversile changes to ey climate su"systems once

greenhouse gases aove 7>4ppm are in the atmosphere for a prolonged period #we are

currently appro&imately 5> ppm aove this level$% /eyond this limit, the impact of such rapid

and irreversile changes maes it increasingly proale that the gloal climate system itself

will e tipped over into a process of runaway warming%

+onventional climate models tend to omit the impact of such positive feedacs% When

incorporated, the findings are disturing% 2cientists at the Dassachusetts Institute of

Technology #DIT$ in a study pulished y the@ournalof Climatepro!ected that etween

-43' and -'44, gloal average temperature would rise to >%'Q+%'4;2imilarly, a ecemer

-44C Det 1ffice study concluded that the world could warm y etween >"5Q+ y -'44 at

the current rate of emissions increases%'451n the way, efore -4;4 we could reach an average

gloal temperature of 7": degrees%'4C1ne of the most comprehensive yet least pulicised

studies y climate scientists at Oawrence /ereley )ational Oaoratory and the (niversity of

+alifornia at /ereley concluded that @gloal temperatures at the end of this century may e

significantly higher than current climate models are predicting,A with global warming

reaching as much as #-C% @If the past is any guide,A said Dargaret Torn from the /ereley

team, @then when our anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions cause gloal warming, it will

alter earth system processes, resulting in additional atmospheric greenhouse gas loading and

additional warming%A'438iven that ;Q+ is already recognised as a wholly unacceptale level

of warming implicating the potential destruction of most life on the planet, the prospect that

temperatures may rise y CQ+ within this century at current rates of fossil fuel emissions

signals the necessity of urgent preventive action%

1.' A ystemic (ailure

A 'ecord of arly 4arnin#s

The landmar -445 () I*++ report follows a long spate of diverse scientific assessments

recognizing that our civilizations overe&ploitation of fossil fuels could lead to the demise of

civilization itself% /ut they were for the most part ignored y policymaers% We will review a

few e&amples here% +onsider, for instance, the '33- @warning reportA produced y the (nionof +oncerned 2cientists, signed y over ',>44 memers of national, regional and


36/52

international science academies, representing ;3 nations from around the world, including

each of the twelve most populous nations and the nineteen largest economic powers, with the

full list including a ma!ority of the )oel laureates in the sciences% The warning report

announced thatF @Human eings and the natural world are on a collision course% Human

activities inflict harsh and often irreversile damage on the environment and on critical

resources%A These practices constitute a @serious risA to human society and the plant and

animal ingdoms, threatening to @so alter the living world that it will e unale to sustain life

in the manner that we now%A The report condemned @massive tampering with the worlds

interdependent we of life . coupled with the environmental damage inflicted y

deforestation, species loss, and climate change,A and noted that such practices @could trigger

widespread adverse effects, including unpredictale collapses of critical iological systems

whose interactions and dynamics we only imperfectly understandG

@)o more than one or a few decades remain efore the chance to avert the threats wenow confront will e lost and Swith them the prospects for humanity%%% The developednations are the largest polluters in the world today% They must greatly reduce their overconsumption, if we are to reduce pressures on resources and the gloal environment%%% )onation can escape from in!ury when gloal iological systems are damaged% )o nation canescape from conflicts over increasingly scarce resources%A''4

=ust under a decade on, such conclusions were reiterated in the (lobal nvironment

3utloo$ 000#8E1"-444$, launched y the (nited )ations Environmental *rogramme ased

on contriutions from () agencies, C>4 e&perts and 74 environmental institutes% The report

descried a variety of full scale emergenciesF The world water cycle is unliely to cope with

demands in coming decades land degradation has negated many advances made y increased

agricultural productivity air pollution is at crisis point in many ma!or cities dangerous gloal

warming is inevitale% < survey for 8E1"-444 conducted y the 2cientific +ommittee on

*rolems of the Environment found that according to -44 leading scientists in >4 countries,

water shortage and gloal warming constituted the two gravest prolems, followed y

desertification and deforestation at national and regional levels% /ut 8E1"-444s most ey

finding is encapsulated in the following conclusionF @The present course is unsustainale and

postponing action is no longer an option%A'''

The -44> Dillennium of -: gloal eco"systems were already in

severe decline human civilization is asoring the Earths natural resources at unsustainale


37/52

rea"nec speed and as a consequence, we are in danger of destroying two%thirdsof the

arth?s ecosystems%''-The () report warned that the Earth is faced with the emergence of

new diseases, sudden changes in water quality, the creation of coastal Bdead zones, the

collapse of fisheries and drastic shifts in regional climate% This comination of new diseases,

asence of fresh water, continuing decline of fisheries and unpredictale weather was already

having increasingly fatal results% 6or e&ample, half of the uran populations of


38/52

The yoto *rotocol . an international legally"inding treaty estalished in '335 and

coming into force in -44> . demanded that industrialized countries reduce their emissions y

only >%- per cent compared to '334 emissions levels y the year -4'-%


39/52


40/52

+ommodities in Oondon predicts that the caron maret @could grow to around 7tn

compared to the V'%>tn maret there is for oil%A '->

The prolem is that y accepting neolieral capitalist marets as a given, caron trading

overloos the systemic origins of climate change% 2uch maret"oriented solutions are inspired

y


41/52

2ervice, recognized this failure would constitute the most monumental mar$et failurethe

world has ever seen% 0et as illustrated y the corporate co"optation of the gloal caron

maret seen aove, this would e less a maret failure than an integral function of mar$et

behaviour under neoliberal capitalismmotivated y short"term profit ma&imization% In this

conte&t, 2terns recommendation to introduce maret mechanisms that would generate

incentives for caron cuts are wide off"the"mar%'-C

The prolem is that neither yoto nor +openhagen provide a clear plan for howthe world

is to re"configure its energy supply to renewale sources and reduce consumption premised

on hydrocaron"dependency% While offering no meaningful impact on curtailing our

tra!ectory toward climate catastrophe, current policies do provide a way of piling huge costs

on the pulic, drastically increasing state revenues, and facilitating corporate profiteering .

without actually solving the causes of the climate prolem% This unfortunately feeds the

suspicion that Western governments are e&ploiting climate hysteria to consolidate their own

questionale political and economic programmes%:n summary, current emissions reductions

policies will effectively escalate C3emissions further, at levels liable to propel global

warming onwards well after the degree tipping point and into the realm of increasingly

dangerous and rapid climate change%

(nfortunately, it appears that alarming strategic decisions have already een made% In -44C,

the /ritish governments chief scientific advisers pulicly asserted that a 8-C rise in global

temperatures is most probably inevitable and irreversible, and that the tas for governments

now is not so much preventing dangerous climate change, as is adapting to the e&treme

conditions it will unavoidaly ring% The governments chief scientific adviser to the

epartment of Environment, 6ood J 9ural


42/52

irreversible conclusion% 2ome of the consequences of these scenarios were outlined y

environment writer Dar Oynas, summarising the findings of his oo, "i 'egreesF

@The impacts of two degrees warming are ad enough, ut far worse is in store ifemissions continue to rise% Dost importantly, 7Q+ may e the Btipping point where gloalwarming could run out of control, leaving us powerless to intervene as planetarytemperatures soar% The centre of this predicted disaster is the


43/52


44/52

+orrespondingly, the question of reducing world consumption of hydrocaron resources is

also tied to issues around sustaining industrial agriculture, which is fundamentally dependent

on supplies of cheap petroleum% The imperative to reduce oil"dependency to cut +1 -

emissions raises questions aout how world food productioncan simultaneously e

maintained to feed a growing planetary population% 8iven that climate change threatens to

generate intensifying water shortages and droughts affecting the worlds leading agricultural

regions, a usiness"as"usual approach suggests that a permanently altered climate will involve

a future of grossly inadequate food and water supplies% There is no dout, then, that the

fallout of a usiness"as"usual approach to climate change would e catastrophic . indicating

the need to dispense with the neolieral model of unlimited growth%:gnoring the

instrumental role of the growth imperative? as a systemic pressure rooted in the structure of

the global political economy guarantees the continuation of global warming+


45/52

'This is the primary preoccupation of most studies of climate change y scholars of international relations and politicalscience% 1ne of the etter and accessile e&amples of this is 8wynne yer, Climate =ars#OondonF 9andom House+anada, -44C$%

- =ohn +oo, @Human +1- is a tiny of +1- emissionsA, "$eptical "cienceXhttpFMMwww%septicalscience%comMhuman"co-"smaller"than"natural"emissions%htmY +oo documents these points usingscientific papers pulished inNature and "cience% )ovemer-44-, Nol% '>, )o% --$ XhttpFMMwww%gfdl%noaa%govMreferenceMiliographyM-44-M!mgregory4-4'%pdfY 6or morereferences see =ohn +oo, @+limate sensitivity is lowA XhttpFMMwww%septicalscience%comMclimate"sensitivity%htmY

: I*++ 9eport, Climate Change 002 &he !hysical "cience asis ; "ummary for !olicyma$ers, +ontriution ofWoring 8roup I to the 6ourth 54-$ pp% ';CC XhttpFMMwww%sciencemag%orgMcgiMcontentMfullM74;M>54-M';C;Y

5 The 7: astracts can e inspected online at Tim Oamert, @*eisners 7: astractsA #; Day -44>$XhttpFMMtimlamert%orgM-44>M4>MpeiserY

C C-JnewDem[)Jcycle[-4'4Y


46/52

'- Dar N% =ohnson, @Inhofes :44 8loal Warming eniers eunedA, &he 'aily (reen#'' =anuary -44C$XhttpFMMwww%thedailygreen%comMenvironmental"newsMlatestMinhofe"gloal"warming"deniers":54'''4'Y% < detailed

readown of the list is provided y =ohnson here XhttpFMMwww%thedailygreen%comMenvironmental"newsMlatestMinhofe"gloal"warming"deniers"scientists":;4''44CY

'7 +ited in =oseph 9omm, @Dore on the Bscientific attacs on gloal warmingA, (ristmill#-5 ecemer -445$XhttpFMMgristmill%grist%orgMstoryM-445M'-M-'M';:7;M5'4Y

':Iid%

'> essler, @The BInhofe :44F /usting the Bconsensus usters,A #-5 ecemer -445$XhttpFMMgristmill%grist%orgMstoryM-445M'-M-;M'35'M;>'5Y @The BInhofe :44 2eptic of the ayA #'> =anuary -44C$XhttpFMMgristmill%grist%orgMstoryM-44CM'M':M-7'-7;M4'3Y XhttpFMMgristmill%grist%orgMstoryM-44CM'M'M'C->>CM3;'>Y #-=anuary -44C$% 2cientist essler continues to e&pose individuals on the Inhofe list at this column%

'; (2 2enate Dinority 9eport, @Dore Than ;>4 International 2cientists issent 1ver Dan"Dade 8loal Warming+laimsA #'' ecemer -44C$ XhttpFMMepw%senate%govMpulicMinde&%cfm?6use ecemer -44C$

XhttpFMMlogs%tnr%comMtnrMlogsMenvironmentandenergyMarchiveM-44CM'-M'>Minhofe"s";>4"quot"dissenters"quot"mae"that";:3";:C%asp&Y

'C4list%logspot%comY

'3 >-a"C4-a"-7ad":;>f"

CC>CeC>ac-JIssueZid[Y

-- (nion of +oncerned 2cientists, @euning Disinformation Day -445$XhttpFMMpulishing%royalsociety%orgMmediaMproceedingsZaMrspa-445'CC4%pdfY

-; 0earsF 8loal Warming of 8loal +ooling? . 8eological and 1ceanographicEvidence for +yclical +limate 1scillationsA #/oulder, +1F 8eological 2ociety of


47/52

-C =ohn +ross and =ohn +oo, @Is *acific ecadel 1scillation the 2moing 8un?A, "$eptical "cience#7 Day -44C$XhttpFMMwww%septicalscience%comMIs"*acific"ecadal"1scillation"the"2moing"8un%htmlY

-3)% 2% eenlyside and D% Oatif, et% al, @Mthe"gloal"cooling"et"part"-Y

7' =oseph 9omm, @)ature article on Bcooling confuses media, deniersF )e&t decade may see rapid warmingA, Climate!rogress#- Day -44C$ XhttpFMMclimateprogress%orgM-44CM4>M4-Mnature"article"on"cooling"confuses"revin"media"deniers"ne&t"decade"may"see"rapid"warmingY

7- /o +arter, @There I2 a prolem with gloal warmingG it stopped in '33CA, &elegraph#3


48/52

:;Dar Oynas, "i 'egrees2 3ur 4uture in a Gotter !lanet#OondonF Harper+ollins 6ourth Estate, -445$

:5 2ee 9ichard 8irling, @To the ends of the EarthA, "unday &imes Fagazine#'> Darch -445$XhttpFMMwww%timesonline%co%uMtolMnewsMuMscienceMarticle':C4;;3%eceY

:C +atherine /rahic, @+aron emissions rising faster than everA, )ew 2cientist )ews 2erviceXhttpFMMwww%newscientist%comMarticleMdn'4>45"caron"emissions"rising"faster"than"ever%htmlY

:3 Dichael 9% 9aupach, 8regg Darland, *hilippe +iais, et% al, @8loal and regional drivers of accelerating +1-emissions,A!roceedings of the National 6cademy of "ciences#'- =une -445, Nol% '4:, )o% -:, pp% '4-CC"'4-37$XhttpFMMwww%pnas%orgMcontentM'4:M-:M'4-CC%astractY

>4Iid%

>' =uliet Eilperin, @+aron is /uilding (p in Darch -445$XhttpFMMwww%timesonline%co%uMtolMnewsMuMscienceMarticle':C4;;3%eceY

>: 6red *earce, @+limate report was Bwatered downA, New "cientist#C Darch -445$ avid Wasdell, @*olitical+orruption of the I*++ 9eportF +hanges in the 6inal Te&t of the B2ummary for *olicy DaersA, #OondonF Deridian*rogramme, Darch -445$ XhttpFMMwww%meridian%org%uM9esourcesM8loal-4ynamicsMI*++Minde&%htmY

>> 8eorge Doniot, @The 9eal +limate +ensorshipA, (uardian#'4 ;

*earce, @+limate reportA, op% cit%

>5 (nion of +oncerned 2cientists and 8overnment


49/52

;>*aul /rown, (lobal =arning2 &he )ast Chance for Change#OondonF 8uardian and $XhttpFMMwww%americanprogress%orgMfMclimatechallenge%pdfY Semphasis added

;5

Ed *ilington, @+limate target is not radical enough . studyA,(uardian

#5 2eptemer -44C$ XhttpFMMwww%guardian%co%uMenvironmentM-44CMsepM'>Mclimatechange%caronemissionsY

54 =onathan Oeae, @/ritain faces ig chill as ocean current slowsA, "unday &imes#C Day -44>$XhttpFMMwww%timesonline%co%uMtolMnewsMuMarticle>-44'7%eceY

5' Ian 2ample, @;$ pp% C::.C:>%

57 Dichael Nellinga and 9ichard $% avid

$ XhttpFMMwww%ucar%eduMnewsMreleasesM-44>MdroughtZresearch%shtmlY


50/52

C7 Thomas 6uller, @6or 4sA, "cience#': )ovemer -447, Nol% 74-, )o% >;:C$ pp% '-47"'-4;,XhttpFMMwww%sciencemag%orgMcgiMcontentMfullM74-M>;:CM'-47?ma&toshow[JHIT2[Jhits[J9E2(OT619DC3">3-%

34 5C4, '; =une -44;$ XhttpFMMwww%sciencemag%orgMcgiMcontentMsummaryM7'-M>5C4M';'-Y

3: % D% Walter, 2% ecemer -44:$XhttpFMMwww%altimoresun%comMnewsMopinionMopedMal"op%warming'>dec'>,',-3447'%story?coll[al"oped"headlinesYSemphasis added

3C W% -, )o% 5'34, -: -Mn5'34MfullMnature4;555%htmlYSemphasis added

33 9% Warren, @Impacts of 8loal +limate +hange at ifferent


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'44 8eoffrey Oean and 6red *earce, @7:44'7Mfullte&t%pdfY

'4- aniel +% )epstad, +laudia D% 2ticler,et% al% @Interactions among ;MasMnature4:47C%htmlY

'4: +hris % =ones, *eter D% +o&, 9ichard Essery, et% al, @2trong caron cycle feedacs in a climate model withinteractive +1- and sulphate aerosolsA, (eophysical Research )etters#Nol% 74, )o% 3, Day -447$ p% ':53XhttpFMMwww%agu%orgMpusMcrossrefM-447M-4478O4';C;5%shtmlY%

'4> Isaac D% Held and /rian =% 2oden, @Water Napor 6eedac and 8loal WarmingA, 6nnual Review of nergy andthe nvironment#)ovemer -444, Nol% ->$ pp% ::'":5>

'4; -4:

'45 Nicy *ope et% al #eds%$6voiding 'angerous Climate Change#OondonF Det 1ffice Hadley +enter, -44C$ p% '7%8O4->>:4%shtmlY @6eedac Ooops In 8loal +limate +hange *oint To< Nery Hot -'st +enturyA "cience 'aily#-- Day -44;$XhttpFMMwww%sciencedaily%comMreleasesM-44;M4>M4;4>--'>'-:C%htmY

''4 (nion of +oncerned 2cientists, @Warning to HumanityA #+amridge, D$ XhttpFMMwww%mawe%orgMpro&yMdocument%asp&?source[dataaseJTale)ame[ocumentsJId6ield[ocumentIJId[7>;J+ontent6ield[ocumentJ+ontentType6ield[+ontentTypeJTitle6ield[TitleJ6ile)ame[D


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''C *atric Dc+ully, @iscredited 2trategyA, (uardian#-' Day -44C$XhttpFMMwww%guardian%co%uMenvironmentM-44CMmayM-'Menvironment%carontradingY

''3 *atric Wintour, @/lair signs caron pact with 2chwarzeneggerA, (uardian#' C

'-5 / +limate +hange :McaronZmaretsZnotZworingZsaysZdeutscheZan%htmlY

'-C 2ir )icolas 2tern, &he conomics of Climate Change2 &he "tern Review#+amridgeF +amridge (niversity *ress,-44;$ XhttpFMMwww%hm"treasury%gov%uMindependentZreviewsMsternZreviewZeconomicsZclimateZchangeMsternreviewZinde&%cfmY% =uliette =owit and *atric Wintour, @+ost of tacling gloal climate change has douled, warns2ternA, (uardian#-; =une -44C$XhttpFMMwww%guardian%co%uMenvironmentM-44CM!unM-;Mclimatechange%scienceofclimatechangeY

'-3 =ames 9anderson, @+limate changeF *repare for gloal temperature rise of :+, warns top scientistA, (uardian#5

Documents

Climate Change Chapter 1 a Users Guide to the Crisis of Civilization by Ahmed1