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2009 presentation for Envicore Training on Climate Change
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE PHILIPPINE CRISIS
Philippine Climate Watch AllianceJuly 2010
OU
TLINE• Introduction
• The science of global warming• Who is to blame?• Climate crisis in the Philippines• Half Measures & False Solutions• People's responses• Our calls
INTRODUCTION
THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Weatherthe particular state of the atmosphere in a certain region at a certain time
Eg. Rainy, windy, sunny, cloudyClimatethe long term weather trend of a certain region over a time period Eg. Tropical, temperate
Climate Changechange in the state of the climate that can be identified by
changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
TEMPERATURE RISE
Rise in temperature was unprecedented since 18501900s – hottest century1995 to 2006, (except 1996)-- hottest decade2005 and 1998 – hottest years; Increase in temperature in the last 50 years was twice faster than last 100 years
SEA LEVEL RISE
MELTING SNOW AND ICE
Minimum arctic sea-ice extent from 1979 to 2007
INCREASING STRENGTH AND FREQUENCY OF TYPHOONS (CATEGORY 4/5)
Source: Science Magazine, Sep 16, 2005
Extreme weather events
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
VULNERABILITY Factors and conditions
adversely affecting the ability of the community to respond,cope with or recover easily from disaster events.
High Poverty Incidence High Inflation Rates Low wages despite the
increasing daily cost of living
High unemployment and underemployment rate
Landlessness/Inequitable distribution of country’s resources
POOR COUNTRIES LIKE THE PHILIPPINES ARE VULNERABLE TO ENHANCED HAZARDS DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE Impacts are worse
Lack of financial,institutional and technological capacity and access to knowledge
Impact disproportionately upon poor within countries
Exacerbates inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Per
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affe
cted
LDCDev'ingCITDev'ed
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Num
ber a
ffect
ed (M
illio
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Dev'edCITDev'ingLDC
CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE PHILIPPINES From 27 typhoons during the period 2000-2003, the
number ominously increased to 39 from 2004-2007 The typhoons are getting stronger and stronger,
especially since the late 1990s. Typhoon signal no. 4 is a fairly recent category.
Total damages brought about by typhoons increased by 408% from 2003 to 2006
Seven of the 20 deadliest typhoons in the Philippines covering the period 1947-2006 occurred in 1990-2006
THE CAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
PFCsHFCsSF6
Greenhouse gases (GHGs) trap heat from the sun to keep the Earth warm.
H2OWater vapor
CO2
Carbon DioxideCH4
Methane
NO2
Nitrous Oxide
CO2
CH4
N2OHFCs
PFCs SF6
CO2CO2
CH4CO2N2OCH4
HFCs
SF6SF6
CO2 CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2CO2 CO2
CH4
N2O
Increasing levels of GHGs in the atmosphere make for a warmer world leading to abrupt changes in climate!
Greenhouse effect
UNEP
GHG gases Generated byCarbon Dioxide
(CO2) Fossil fuel combustion, land clearing for agriculture, cement production
Methane (CH4)Livestock production, extraction of fossil fuels, rice cultivation, landfills, sewage
Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Industrial processes, fertilizer use
Hydrofluoro-carbons (HFCs)
Leakage from refrigerators, aerosols, air conditioners
Perfluoro-carbons Aluminum production, semiconductor industry
Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6)
Electrical insulationmagnesium smelting
SURGING GHG EMISSIONS
WHO IS TO BLAME?
US AND OTHER IMPERIALIST COUNTRIES
US is the largest emtter in volume and per capita
TRANSNATIONAL CORPORATIONS
1998, 4 out of the 11 biggest producers of oil are TNCs (BP Amoco-Arco, Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell at Chevron-Texaco).
2005, oil TNCs like British Petroleum, Exxon Mobil, Shell Dutch controls 18% of global oil reserves
TNCs owns the biggest agricultural plantations, logging corporations, large dams, energy plants, etc..
2004, the 10 biggest oil TNCs in the US control around 55% of the oil production while the top 50 controls 77%
2006, Exxon Mobil Corporation reported — TNC having the biggest GHG emission in the world (150 million tons-6th largest if it were a country ) – and a net profit of $39.5 billion from gross income of $377.6 billion
ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCE International finance capital Stimulate production and
sale of consumer goods Cover debt service burden
and budgetary deficits Developing countries forced
to follow prescriptions of the IMF and the WB which open up resources and markets
PHILIPPINE GOVERNMENT Large scale plunder of
the environment Without benefit to the
majority of our people Benefits only a small
segment of society Government policies
aggravates our climate vulnerability
Biofuels Act Oil deregulation law Mining Act 1995 EPIRA Forestry Code Neoliberal Globalization Corruption
PHILIPPINE GHG EMISSIONS
GHGs in RP 1999, Philippines emitted
75,998,000 metric tons of CO2 or 0.3% of world total emission.
From 1990 to 1999 our CO2 emission increased by 72%.
Currently we have a higher CO2 emission than some industrialized countries like Switzerland (0.1%), New Zealand (0.1%), Sweden (0.2%), Ireland (0.2%) and Norway (0.2%), and also to some oil producing countries (OPEC members) like Bahrain (0.1%), Libya (0.2%), Nigeria (0.2%) and Kuwait (0.2%)
HALF MEASURES & FALSE SOLUTIONS
CLIMATE CHANGE TIMELINE
1970 First Earth Day. Environmental movement attains strong influence, spreads concern about global degradation.
1979: First World Climate Conference adopts climate change as major issue and calls on governments "to foresee and prevent potential man made changes in climate.”
1985: First major international conference on the greenhouse effect at Villach, Austria, warns that greenhouse gases will "in the first half of the next century, cause a rise of global mean temperature which is greater than any in man's history."
1987 Montreal Protocol of the Vienna Convention imposes international restrictions on emission of ozone-destroying gases.
1990 First IPCC report says world has been warming and future warming seems likely. Industry lobbyists and some scientists dispute the tentative conclusions.
1992: Climate Change Convention, signed by 154 nations in Rio, agrees to prevent "dangerous" warming from greenhouse gases and sets initial target of reducing emissions from industrialised countries to 1990 levels by the year 2000.
1996: At the second meeting of the Climate Change Convention, the US agrees for the first time to legally binding emissions targets and sides with the IPCC against influential sceptical scientists. After a four year pause, global emissions of CO2 resume their steep climb, and scientists warn that most industrialised countries will not meet Rio agreement to stabilise emissions at 1990 levels by the year 2000.
UNFCCC AND KYOTO PROTOCOL
International agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
reduce GHG emissions, on average by about 5% between 2008-2012 relative to 1990
The flexibility mechanisms • Funding mechanisms to assist
developing countries 175 countries except US and Australia
(Australia later signed on Kyoto)
COPENHAGEN ACCORD
US + BASIC countries + 26 heads of states
Evaded legally binding commitments
No quantification of a long-term global goal for emission reductions, or specific timing for global emissions to peak.
Undemocratic process More market based
mechanisms
GOVERNMENT INITIATIVES
Climate Change Task Force
Clean Development Mechanism
1991 Inter-Agency Committee on Climate Change
Oct. 29 – Arroyo signed (RA 9729) Climate Change Commission
2009 Climate Change Bill
EPIRA (privatization of energy plants and building of new ones by private sector)
Philippine Energy Plan 2005-2014 – building new coal power plants and increasing it share in energy production by 40%
Others – Mining Act, Biofuels Act, Clean Air Act, Joint explorations
TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS
Biofuels Renewable Energy Nuclear plants REDD Geoengineering Carbon capture and
Storage (CCS)
DIFFERENTIATED RESPONSIBILITY AND VULNERABILITY Inverse relationship between
climate change vulnerability and responsibility
Primary emitter countries must change their production activities and consumption of energy and seek sustainable solutions.
Basic human needs, economic and social development need adequate energy and infrastructure.
36
ROOT CAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
HISTORICAL CONTEXT Unprecedented rise
in GHG production and concentration on the onset of capitalist system
Industrial revolution Modern technology Intensive use of
machines and fossil fuels for transportation, trade and energy.
IMPERIALISM AND GLOBAL WARMING
Characteristics of capitalist production
Production for profit Anarchic Wasteful and
pollutive Monopoly on
production, resources, capital
Division of the world –market, raw materials and war
PLUNDER AND WAR
Free market globalization policies
Unhampered entry, control and exploitation of raw natural resources and of people.
Atrocious campaigns of wars of aggression
Gain direct or tighter control of land and natural resources.
Gain control over markets
GLOBAL WARMING WORSENS THE IMPACT OF IMPERIALIST PLUNDER Under a system where profit is the primary objective of societal production, the environment and our ecosystems are reduced to being a source of raw materials and dumping ground for wastes. Under such a system, countries which top the list in terms of profit and industrial might also become the world's foremost culprits of environmental degradation.
PEOPLE’S INITIATIVES
Short termCommunity based disaster responseCapacity building for vulnerable communitiesPopularize and implement proper and sustainable use of our natural resourcesmass education campaigns in communities on the root causes, consequences and genuine solutions to climate change
Long termDefend our patrimony and communities against foreign and local plunderWork for social change – structural and systematic; towards a society where human rights, national patrimony, genuine land reform, and national industrialization is pursued
MULTISECTORAL FORMATIONS Philippine Climate Watch
Alliance: broad, national People's Action on Climate
Change: International People's Movement on
Climate Change: International, People's Protocol on Climate Change
c
OUR CALLS
Deep and drastic cuts by world’s top historical emitters
Defend the environment and national patrimony from imperialist plunder
Uphold the right to develop. Basic human needs, economic and social
development need adequate energy and infrastructure.
Work towards a sustainable, independent and progressive local economy.
National Industrialization Genuine Agrarian Reform
Common Action• mass education campaigns in communities on
the root causes, consequences and genuine solutions to climate change– promote and assert indigenous and community-based
low-carbon production systems– practice of biodiversity-enhancing and ecologically-
friendly agriculture– the principle of sustainable agriculture, forestry,
fishery and mining– the development of science and technology for the
people
Common Action• Lastly, beyond these engagements of
demanding the elite to be responsible for mitigation and adaptation, grassroots communities must build their resilience as part of their daily and long-term struggles.– While the twin strategies – mitigation and
adaptation – are focused on making the capitalist countries pay and exposing the inherent contradictions of capitalism, resilience is focused on building inner strength and self-reliance of grassroots communities as a long-term struggle against capitalist exploitation.
