Upload
truongdung
View
223
Download
2
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
THE PHILIPPINE STOCK EXCHANGE, INC.
Philippine Investment Climate
Eye on Cebu: An Investment and Economic Summit 01 August 2012
Leonardo G. Quinitio AVP & Head, Capital Markets Development Division
5,000
Why invest in the stock market?
The resiliency of the Philippine stock market to withstand external shocks
Growth drivers in the pipeline to further develop the stock market
Philippine economy is experiencing steady growth with strong overseas remittance, good governance, benign inflation, and stable interest and exchange rates.
Sound Macroeconomic
Environment
Growth Drivers
1
2
3
Resilient Stock Market
Indicators
Stab
le e
con
om
y; s
tro
ng
mar
ket
ind
icat
ors
; dri
vers
to
gro
wth
Mac
roec
on
om
ic In
dic
ato
rs
Economic Snapshot
Monetary Environment
Credit Upgrades
• Moody’s: Ba2 (Positive)
• Fitch: BB+ (Stable)
• S&P: BB+ (Stable)
Business Confidence
Sustained Economic Growth
Source: National Statistics Office, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, Department of
Treasury, World Economic Forum’s The Global Competitiveness Report
Indicator 2010 2011 2012
GDP Growth (in %) 7.6 3.7 6.4 (1Q)
Ave. Inflation (in %) 3.8 4.8 3.0 (6M)
Exchange Rate,
EOP
43.89 43.93 42.28 (Jun)
GIR (in US$ Bn) 62.37 75.30 76.28 (Jun)
Ave. 91-Day T-Bill
Rate (in %)
3.73 1.37 2.17 (May)
7-Year T-Bond Rate,
Latest Auction (in %)
5.28 5.02 4.695 (Jul)
Debt to GDP Ratio
(in %)
52.4 50.9 N.A.
Unemployment Rate
(in %)
7.3 7.0 6.9 (Apr)
WEF
Competitiveness
Ranking
85 75 N.A.
6.1 7.1
8.9
10.9 1.7
1.9 2.4
2.9
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
2008 2009 2010 est. 2011
Total Value Jobs Generated
In billions
US$ in millions
Government Consumption
11%
Capital Formation
17%
Net Exports3%
Household Consumption
69%
17.3 18.8 20.1
7.9 8.3
-2.0
2.0
6.0
10.0
14.0
18.0
22.0
2009 2010 2011 May-11 May-12
Demand-Driven Economy
BPO
Gross Domestic Product 1Q 2012
OFW Remittances (in billions U.S. dollars)
Sources: National Statistical Coordination Board Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Business Process Association of the Philippines
Mac
roec
on
om
ic In
dic
ato
rs
Improved Investment Climate
Good Governance
Sound Fiscal Management
Business and
Investor Confidence
Mac
roec
on
om
ic In
dic
ato
rs
6.34
13.00
16.47
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2009 2010 2011
Gross FPIs PSE-Listed Securities
Foreign Direct Investments (in million US$)
Investments in PSE-Listed Securities Share to Gross FPIs, as of end- 2011
Progressive Foreign Investments
PSE-Listed
Securities, 56.0%
Gov't. Securities,
40.8%
Others, 3.1%
Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
1963
1298 1262
571 837
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2009 2010 2011 Apr-11 Apr-12
Gross Foreign Portfolio Investments (in billion US$)
Mac
roec
on
om
ic In
dic
ato
rs
Philippines as Key Investment Destination G
row
th P
rosp
ects
fo
r th
e P
hili
pp
ines
The PSEi tops the
“Bloomberg Riskless Return
Ranking”
in Southeast Asia
Philippines as part of the “Next 11” – which also includes South
Korea, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey, Egypt, Vietnam, Pakitan, Nigeria,
Bangladesh and Iran
- Jim O’Neill, Goldman Sachs
“The Philippines’ growth trajectory continues to move upwards.. It will not be long
before the Philippines gets its much-awaited upgrade to
investment grade… ”
- HSBC “Five ASEAN economies –Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines,
Malaysia and Vietnam- along with China and India will
outpace the rest of the world over the next two years.”
-International Monetary Fund
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
+4% +38%
Stock Market Highlights
-48% +63%
+21.4% As of July 31,
2012 • PSEi posts record
high 21 times,
treading the 5,300
level
Record Close:
5,369.98 on July 5, 2012
Sto
ck M
arke
t U
pd
ates
Performance vs. Selected Asian
Exchanges
Sto
ck M
arke
t U
pd
ates
2011 vs. 2010 As of July 30, 2012 vs. 2011
-32.9%
-27.5%
-24.6%
-24.6%
-21.7%
-21.2%
-20.0%
-18.9%
-17.3%
-17.0%
-11.0%
-0.7%
0.8%
3.2%
4.1%
-35.0% -25.0% -15.0% -5.0% 5.0%
SZSE
VNI
Sensex
Nifty
SSE
Taiex
Hang Seng
Topix
Nikkei
STI
KOSPI
SET
KLCI
JCI
PSEi
-4.1%
-0.6%
0.4%
1.0%
1.2%
2.1%
6.2%
6.6%
7.3%
10.9%
12.4%
14.6%
16.4%
18.0%
20.7%
-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
SSE
SZSE
Topix
KOSPI
Taiex
Nikkei
Hang Seng
KLCI
JCI
Sensex
Nifty
STI
SET
VN Index
PSEi
55.57
(22.16)
14.92
35.62
56.52
24.28
92.67
(40)
(20)
0
20
40
60
80
100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 July 29, 2011
July 31, 2012
90.13
31.55 38.77
84.94
107.50
60.03
91.13
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 July 29, 2011
July 31, 2012
5.48
3.11
4.11 4.95
5.71 5.32
7.56
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
9.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 July 29, 2011
July 31, 2012
Sto
ck M
arke
t U
pd
ates
Average Daily Turnover (in PhP Bn) Capital Raised (in PhP Bn)
Stock Market Highlights
Net Foreign Transactions (in PhP Bn)
42.2%
51.8%
281.7% 7,977
4,072
6,032
8,866 8,697
10,144
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 July 31, 2012
Total MCAP (in PhP Bn)
16.6%
5.54 6.27
7.56
Jan. 3-Sep. 30, 2011 Oct. 3-Dec. 29, 2011 Jan. 2-Jul. 31, 2012
Key Milestones In
itia
tiv
es
Listing
• Revised Rules on Listing by Way of Introduction
• Relaxed Listing Requirements for Oil & Renewable
Energy Companies
• Reinstatement of the 10% Minimum Public Ownership
Rule
Trading
Activity
• Launch of PSETrade
• Extended trading hours until 1:00 PM in October, and up
to 3:30 PM by the first trading day this year
• Revised Index Management Policy
Average Daily Turnover
(in PhP Bn)
Ach
ieve
men
ts
Trading Hours: 9:30AM to 12:10PM
Trading Hours: 9:30AM to 1:00PM
Trading Hours: 9:30AM to 12:00NN 1:30PM to 3:30PM
Ach
ieve
men
ts
Key Milestones In
itia
tiv
es
Market
Education
• Launch of PSE Academy website
• Cebu Satellite Office
• Collaboration with academic institutions
PSE Cebu Office 2nd Floor, Insular Life Cebu Business Centre, Mindanao Avenue corner Biliran Road, Cebu
Business Park, Cebu City
444,680
476,194
498,838 505,054
400,000
425,000
450,000
475,000
500,000
525,000
2008 2009 2010 2011
1.3%
Total Number of Accounts
Market Education Efforts A
chie
vem
ents
CHED Memorandum Order No. 39, series of 2006
Certified Securities Specialists Course
Integration of Capital Markets subject in high
school curriculum
MBA with Specialization in Capital Markets
Ach
ieve
men
ts
Key Milestones In
itia
tiv
es
Corporate
Governance
• Spin-off of PSE-Market Regulation Division into Capital
Markets Integrity Corporation
• Increased capitalization of broker dealers by 50% in 2011;
and up to P100 million for new entrants
Wholly-owned subsidiary Spun off entity of the PSE’s Market Regulation Division Incorporated in March 2011 and began operations a year
later Provisional SRO status Launched Total Market Surveillance
Economic Outlook 2012
Source: Philippine government, and Asian Development Bank
Opportunities
• Closer to investment grade status
• Benign interest environment
• Current administration’s policy on good governance
Risks
• US and Euro zone debt concerns
• Weakening of China’s economy
2012 2012 2012 2013
GDP Growth Rate (in %) 6.4 (1Q) 5.0 to 6.0 4.8 5.0
Inflation Rate (in %) 3.0 (6M) 3.0 to 5.0 3.7 4.1
Export Growth (in %) (8.4) (5M) 10.0 5.4 9.4
Import (in %) (4.6) (4M) 15.0 7.2 10.8
ActualPhil. Government
Targets as of April 2012
Asian Development Bank
Wh
at L
ies
Ah
ead
Sector Outlook
Financials
• Improved earnings momentum from lending and fee-based activities
• Strong capitalization base of local banks
Industrial
• Government prioritization of infrastructure projects in its Public-Private Partnership (PPP) program
• Continued upgrading and expansion of power generation companies
Wh
at L
ies
Ah
ead
Sector Outlook
Property
• Demand for residential and office space
• Development of affordable housing units
Services
• Continuous technological advances in telecommunications and entertainment
• Increasing tourist arrivals
Mining & Oil
• New executive order on mining
• Opportunities in further oil exploration
Wh
at L
ies
Ah
ead
2012 Plans & Programs
COMPETITIVE AND VIBRANT
MARKET
Strategic
Agenda
Thrusts
List more companies and securities
Expand and educate the investor base
Value and enforce corporate governance standards
Enhance shareholder value
Launch new products and services
Upgrade market infrastructure and human resources
Partner with government and other stakeholders
Increase
Liquidity
Improve
Corporate
Governance
Strengthen
Organizational
Foundation
Tow
ard
s a
Co
mp
etit
ive
and
Vib
ran
t M
arke
t
Increase Liquidity
• Develop models/ mechanisms to help facilitate TPs who are willing to provide online trading to give this service to clients
• Capitalizes on technology-savvy Filipinos by tapping rapidly growing online investor base
Promote Online Trading
• Educate investor base in other areas outside of Metro Manila and encourage local companies to list with PSE
• Expands reach to prospective investors and applicant companies in different parts of the country
Establishing
Satellite Offices
Sto
ck M
arke
t In
itia
tive
s
Exchange Traded Funds (ETF)
Personal Equity and Retirement
Account (PERA)
Securities Borrowing
and Lending (SBL)
Improve Corporate Governance
Enhanced risk management
and monitoring framework
Total Market Surveillance
PSE Bell
Awards
Recognize listed companies
and trading participants
adhering to CG standards
as well as PSE and SEC
rules and Regulations
Put in place a comprehensive
surveillance system to ensure
an efficient market
Increase investor
confidence that is enabled
by an environment of
improved investor
protection and CG
standards
Sto
ck M
arke
t In
itia
tive
s
Moving Forward
Strong growth in the Philippine economy will lead to increased disposable income and greater funds
being invested in the capital markets
Structural regulatory changes, an increased variety of products available for trading and enhanced
investor base will result in significant mobilization of funds channeling into capital markets and increasing
the number of listings and trading volumes
Low cost philosophy and scalable platform of the PSE will further strengthen the operational efficiency
and therefore enhance the profitability of the stock exchange
Enhanced corporate governance and capable management team will reinforce investor confidence
Low capital market penetration, coupled with strong economic growth, favorable regulatory
changes and enhanced operational efficiency, indicates significant room for long term capital
markets growth
Favorable
macroeconomic trends Enhanced corporate
governance
Profitable structural
drivers
Sto
ck M
arke
t In
itia
tive
s
DIS
CLA
IMER
Thank You
© The Philippine Stock Exchange, Inc. (PSE). All rights reserved.
This document is a property of the PSE and cannot be used or reproduced, distributed or forwarded by any person or company, in any form
and in any manner, without the written consent of the PSE. Any and all unauthorized reproduction, distribution or forwarding of this document,
in whole or in part, is subject to legal action.
This document is not intended for general circulation and does not, in any form, constitute legal, financial or investment advice and neither
does it make any recommendation or endorsement to buy and/or sell any kind of investment product(s). The PSE reserves the right to make
adjustments, omissions, corrections, and other similar actions to this document at any period of time. The PSE does not warrant or represent,
expressly or impliedly, the accuracy, validity, correctness and completeness of the information stated in this document. The PSE, together with
its affiliates and subsidiaries, expressly disclaim any and all liability arising from any actions or decisions made on the basis of this document,
its content, and/or any changes, omission or error of the aforementioned.
Any views or opinions, either defamatory or complimentary, are solely those of the author/speaker and do not necessarily represent those of
the PSE. The PSE together with its affiliates and subsidiaries will not accept any liability arising from the consequences of, and any actions or
decisions made in respect to any statements expressed henceforth.