Climate Change and Malaysia

Numerical Weather Prediction Division

Malaysian Meteorological Department

Global Warming

Figure 1: Global Averaged Surface Temperature (IPCC AR4 WG1: Physical Science Basis)

Twelve of the thirteen years in the period (1995-2007) rank among the top 12 warmest years in the observation record

Global temperatures have risen by about 0.74 ºC since the beginning of the 20th century

What causes weather & climate?What causes weather & climate?

Differential Differential heating of heating of the earth’s the earth’s surfacesurface

INSOLATION [INcoming SOLAR radiATION

Natural Causes of Climate Variation

Milankovitch Cycles

Variation in Internal Atmospheric Cycles (El Nino Northern Atlantic Oscillation Indian Ocean dipole etc)

Variation in Oceanic Circulations

Volcanic Eruptions

Anthropogenic Causes of Climate Variation

Anthropogenic Activities Emissions of greenhouse gases & aerosols

• Change in land-use

• Deforestation

Malaysia: Present Climate

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

YEAR

PREC

IPIT

ATI

ON

( m

m )

LANGKAWI

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

2700

2900

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

YEAR

PR

EC

IPIT

AT

ION

( m

m )

BUTTERWORTH

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

YEAR

PRE

CIP

ITA

TIO

N (m

m)

PETALING JAYA

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

YEAR

PR

EC

IPIT

AT

ION

( m

m )

SUBANG

WEST PENINSULAR MALAYSIA (ANNUALPRECIPITATION)

1400

1900

2400

2900

3400

3900

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

YEAR

PR

EC

IPIT

AT

ION

( m

m )

KOTA BARU

16001800200022002400260028003000320034003600

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

YEAR

PREC

IPIT

ATI

ON

( m

m )

KUALA TRENGGANU

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

YEAR

PR

EC

IPIT

AT

ION

( m

m )

KUANTAN

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

YEAR

PR

EC

IPIT

AT

ION

( m

m )

MERSING

EAST PENINSULAR MALAYSIA (ANNUAL PRECIPITATION)

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

YEAR

PR

EC

IPIT

AT

ION

( m

m )

KOTA KINABALU

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

YEAR

PR

EC

IPIT

AT

ION

( m

m )

SANDAKAN

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

YEAR

PR

EC

IPIT

AT

ION

( m

m )

KUCHING

20002200

24002600

28003000

32003400

36003800

4000

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

YEAR

PR

EC

IPIT

AT

ION

( m

m )

MIRI

EAST MALAYSIA (ANNUAL PRECIPITATION)

26.9

27.2

27.5

27.8

28.1

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

BUTTERWORTH

26.0

26.3

26.6

26.9

27.2

27.5

27.8

28.1

28.4

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

PETALING JAYA

26.0

26.3

26.6

26.9

27.2

27.5

27.8

28.1

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

KOTA BARU

25.3

25.6

25.9

26.2

26.5

26.8

27.1

27.4

27.7

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

KUANTAN

WEST MALAYSIA (MEAN TEMPERATURE)

26.1

26.4

26.7

27.0

27.3

27.6

27.9

28.2

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

KOTA KINABALU

26.3

26.6

26.9

27.2

27.5

27.8

28.1

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

SANDAKAN

25.6

25.9

26.2

26.5

26.8

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

KUCHING

26.0

26.3

26.6

26.9

27.2

27.5

27.8

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

MIRI

EAST MALAYSIA (MEAN TEMPERATURE)

ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE

25.0

25.3

25.6

25.9

26.2

26.5

26.8

27.1

27.4

27.7

28.0

28.3

28.6

28.9

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

YEAR

TE

MP

ER

AT

UR

E (

°C)

KUCHING KO TA KINABALU KUANTAN PETALING JAYA

1972

1997

19911982

1987

1977

Global Climate Simulations

Different Emission Scenarios

Projected global average temperature changes for the early and late 21st century relative to the period 1980 – 1999, as calculated by multi-model averages for a low (B1), a medium (A1B) and a high SRES scenario for the decades 2020-2039 (left) and 2090-2099 (right). (IPCC, 2007)

Projected global average temperature changes for the early and late 21st century relative to the period 1980 – 1999, as calculated by multi-model averages for a low (B1), a medium (A1B) and a high SRES scenario for the decades 2020-2039 (left) and 2090-2099 (right). (IPCC, 2007)

Annual Rainfall Changes (%): Nine GCMs Ensemble

Based upon 9 Global Climate Model Ensemble Projection, Temperature Increase for

Peninsular Malaysia ~ 2.8°C East Malaysia ~ 2.6 °C

Rainfall Variation (%) for Malaysia based upon 9 Global Climate Model Ensemble Projection

Regional Climate Simulations

• Global Circulation Models (GCM) lack regional detail that impact assessment on climate change require.

• A Regional Climate Model (RCM) adds small-scale detailed information of future climate change to the large-scale projections of a GCM. Coarse resolution information from a GCM is used to develop temporally and spatially fine scale information.

• In the Malaysian Meteorological Department, the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) is being used.

PRECIS resolution 0.44° x 0.44°

HadCM3 resolution 2.5° x 3.75°

Orographic Resolution

PRECIS captures important regional

information on summer monsoon rainfall missing

in its parent GCM simulations

PRECIS Simulations of Present Climate (1961-1990)Mean Annual Cycles of SEA Rainfall and Temperature

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Months

Ra

infa

ll (m

m/d

ay

)

23

23.5

24

24.5

25

25.5

26

26.5

27

27.5

28

Te

mp

era

ture

(C

)

Observed ppt (1961-90)

Baseline ppt (1961-90)

Observed temp (1961-90)

Baseline temp (1961-90)

MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE

MALAYSIA - TEMPERATURE ANOMALY

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.4

2.7

3.0

3.3

3.6

3.920

00

2007

2014

2021

2028

2035

2042

2049

2056

2063

2070

2077

2084

2091

2098

YEAR

TE

MP

ER

AT

UR

E

A

NO

MA

LY

( %

)

PENINSULAR MALAYSIASABAHSARAWAK

Simulation of Average Annual Surface Temperature for Malaysia using PRECIS

• 5 year running averages used

MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION

MALAYSIA - PRECIPITATION ANOMALY

-35.0-32.0-29.0-26.0-23.0-20.0-17.0-14.0-11.0

-8.0-5.0-2.01.04.07.0

10.013.016.019.0

2000

2007

2014

2021

2028

2035

2042

2049

2056

2063

2070

2077

2084

2091

2098

YEAR

PR

EC

IPIT

AT

ION

AN

OM

AL

Y (

% )

PENINSULAR MALAYSIASABAHSARAWAK

Simulation of Average Annual Rainfall for Malaysia using PRECIS

• 5 year running averages used

1.3 °C 1.9°C 3.1°C 1.1°C 1.7°C 2.9°C

1.5°C 2.0°C 3.2°C

1.4°C 1.9°C 3.2°C

1.2°C 2.0°C 3.4°C

1.4°C 2.0°C 3.8°C

1.2°C 1.9°C 3.0°C 1.0°C 1.7°C 2.8°C

2020 - 2029 2050 - 2059 2090 - 2099

Annual Mean Temperature Anomaly Relative to 1990 - 1999

-11.3 6.4 11.9 -18.7 -6.0 4.1

-10.2 2.3 14.1

-14.6 -0.2 15.2 -9.1 –1.3 6.2

-8.9 –1.2 0.3

-17.5 –12.8 –3.6

Annual Mean Rainfall Anomaly (%) Relative to 1990 – 1999

Thank You