Climate Change and International Development: UK Parliamentary Briefings. › sites › odi.org.uk › files › odi-assets › ... · 2019-11-11 · Climate Change and International

Climate Change and International Development: UK Parliamentary Briefings.

March 2009, London

Margaret Catley-CarlsonUN Secretary General Advisory Board on Water,

World Economic Forum (Davos) Chair Water GICInternational Water Management Institute

Suez EnvironmentGlobal Water Partnership

‘

Margaret Catley-Carlson, London, ODI Parliamentary Briefings March 2009

What do you really know about Water?

Only 2.5% freshwater. Of that small amount70% polar ice caps; Soil humidity, inaccessible.Usable water – 1-2% planet’s existing freshwater.

100 year period, a water molecule spends.98 years in the ocean,20 months in ice,2 weeks in lakes and rivers,a week in the atmosphere.

Oceans 80%. 20 per cent of precipitation falls on land


We are all about water

Water IS life2 liters, 25 liters, 2500 litersWe have 400-500 liters per dayThe poor have as little as 20 liters

Atlanta, New Jersey, California –new headlines6,000 children per day die – clean water and sanitationWomen – heavy tollGirls – education, life chances, fertility

Sanitation in schools =11% + p/y since 199090% of LDC urban water NOT treated


Water and Poverty

Poor spend a great deal more on waterFree water hurts poor most

Poor affected most by water borne illness73 million working days lost in India - $600m lost in treatment lost production


We must be taking good care of it – right?Well, not really…

Water tables declining.

Many rivers no longer reach the sea.70 Rivers closing

1b+ people – no consistent access to freshwater.

Freshwater aquatic species in peril(28%?).

Deltas and wetlands disappearing.

WHY???? – P P P


It takes a litre of water to produce every calorie, on average

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

An achievement of humanity is the ability to produce enough food globally for a growing population. But there is a problem of distribution, and malnourishment and poverty lingers, especially in South Asia and Sub-saharan Africa.


How much more water for cereals?

Food demand doubles over the next 50 because of diet and population

Water Needs (ET) will double – without water productivty gains


mitigation and

adaptation

it’s about water

impacts on water

impacts on water

management

IWRM – the way forward

Relative changes in precipitation (by percent) for the period 2090-2099, relative to 1980-1999. Values are multi-model averages based on the SRES based on the A1B scenario for December to February (left) and June to August (right). White areas

are where 66% of the models agree on the sign of the change and stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree on the sign of the change.

IPCC Report – ‘it won’t get better’


IPCC Reportmitigation

andadaptation

it’s about water

impacts on water

impacts on water

management


IPCC 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

• Heavy and more frequent precipitation events• Area affected by droughts will increase• Intense tropical cyclone activity will increase• Snow cover will contract• Extra-tropical storm tracks will move poleward• Increases in precipitation in high latitudes• Decreases in precipitation in most sub-tropical

land regions

In addition to increased temperatures and sea level rise, IPCC predicts:

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://weather.anolecomputer.com/images/blog/2007-06-28-1625-fire-rain-a.jpg&imgrefurl=http://weather.anolecomputer.com/PI-weather-blog/?cat=8&h=375&w=500&sz=82&hl=en&start=17&um=1&tbnid=nrFVgg0l9RYwAM:&tbnh=98&tbnw=130&prev=/images?q=storm+pictures+rain&svnum=10&um=1&hl=en&rlz=1T4DMUS_enUS243US243

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://ltp-education.gsfc.nasa.gov/eye/cyclone_lrg.jpg&imgrefurl=http://ltp-education.gsfc.nasa.gov/modis_cyclone.html&h=7200&w=5600&sz=5648&hl=en&start=31&um=1&tbnid=VLe1wZnAa78QCM:&tbnh=150&tbnw=117&prev=/images?q=cyclone&start=18&ndsp=18&svnum=10&um=1&hl=en&rlz=1T4DMUS_enUS243US243&sa=N


Effects Combine

Hotter, more evaporation from the soil and plants, less water will flows into rivers, into aquifers undergroundbut

Harder rain - larger proportion of water will flow off the ground as floods or infiltrate into the soil

Seems to be intensity of impact at higher altitudes and latitudes – implication for glacial melting, winter snow accumulation

‘


Some Chapter Headings

SecurityDisastersInfrastructure – and financingFood and agriculture – food securityEscape routes – if we can


UK Defense Minister John Reed

February 2006:….violent collision between a rising world population and a shrinking world water resourceBritain must be prepared for humanitarian disaster relief, peacekeeping and warfare to deal with the “dramatic social and political consequences of climate change" Preparedness to intervene in wars about water.


View From The CIA“Water, As You May Know, Is A Big Deal.”

John C. Gannon Chairman, National Intelligence Council United States Army War College, Carlisle PA

December 2000, the CIA's Global Trends 2015.Instability brought on by a shortage of drinking water--"the single most contested resource on the planet,“

"Global water consumption X 10 since 1900,many parts of the world are now reaching limits of their supply.

World population is expected to increase by 45% in the next thirty years.

http://www.cia.gov/cia/reports/globaltrends2015/


Continuing From The CIA Report….By 2015 nearly half the world’s population—more than 3

billion people—will live in countries that are "water-stressed"—.

mostly in Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and northern China.In the Middle East, per capita decline in water availability over the next 25 years looks something like this:

Israel, 33 %; Jordan, 75 %; Iran, 50 %; Saudi Arabia, 67 %; Egypt, 40 %; Ethiopia/Rwanda, 60 %; and South Africa, 55 %.

Turkey -new dams and irrigation on Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, affect water flows into Syria and Iraq

Egypt -r diversion of water from the Nile, which flows from Ethiopia and Sudan,

Water shortages occurring in combination with other sources of tension—such as in the Middle East—will be the most worrisome..


Armed Conflicts 1989-97

Dependence on agriculture versus armed conflict 1989-97 Agriculture to GDP Ratio--Countries/Territories

27.0 to 65.5 (62)11.3 to 27.0 (59)0 to 11.1 (63)

Conflict areas

Source:

PRIO Report 1/99


CIA “Water Hot Spots” Map

Rich and poor….


mitigation and

adaptation

it’s about water

impacts on water

impacts on water

management


Relative changes in precipitation (by percent) for the period 2090-2099, relative to 1980-1999. Values are multi-model averages based on the SRES based on the A1B scenario for December to February (left) and June to August (right). White areas

are where 66% of the models agree on the sign of the change and stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree on the sign of the change.

IPCC Report


Water Wars – The Fate Of The 21st Century?

Ismail Serageldin – ‘ ..the new oil….wars of the 21st Century will be about water”…Kofi Annan – ‘will this be our next big source of conflict….? ”Mubarak – ‘the only reason Egypt would go to war with the Sudan is water….Is this the future? Where can we expect trouble?


0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Floods

Windstorms

Earthquakes

Relative number of natural catastrophes 1980 – 2008(normalized by the value of the respective trend line of the absolute numbers in 1980)

Copyright: Geo Risks Research - Munich Re 2009

Trendlines

Floods:0,0789 x + 0,9211

Slope ≈ 8%Windstorms:0,0458 x + 0,9542

Slope ≈ 4%Geophysical events:0,0186 x + 0,9814

Slope ≈ 2%

x: year (1=1980)


100

200

300

400

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

100

200

300

400

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

100

200

300

400

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

Absolute number of natural catastrophes 1980 – 2008(according to Munich Re‘s NatCatService data base)

Geophysical events Windstorms Floods


1 = 1980 29 = 2008


C: y = 7,8276x + 91,379x=1: ---> y(1)=99.21

100

200

300

400

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29


Number of floods1980 - 2008



The number of storm disasters increases twice as much as the number of earthquake disasters.

And the number of flood disasters increases (almost) twice as much as the number of storm disasters and four times as much as the number of earthquake disasters.

Hence, the different increase in number of events for weather–related and geophysically-caused natural catastrophes indicate the influence of climate change.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Fabrikgelände


Infrastructure

Investments made today will need to take into account the new climates of the 22nd century and be designed for the future as well as the present:

Dams • Wastewater disposalCanals • Stormwater drainageTunnels • Wastewater recyclingPipelines • Desalination

'

mitigation and

adaptation

impacts on water

impacts on water

management


it’s about water


Impact on Business

Profound

Financial Houses

Water analysis

Mark down of companies NOT taking water into account.

Global Compact

Business Council on Sustainable Development

World Economic Forum.


Degree of cost recovery

Tough to find the MONEYWater Sector Has Difficulty Maintaining, Building,

Extending Services

Telecom Gas Power Water0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Financial autonomy

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Why so little interest in the Water Sector! Subsidy Mentality Lingers – Tariff Politically Charged Lumpy Investments with Long Payback Periods - Substantial Investment Opportunity Costs Few Major Operators – Difficulty to Scale Up Many Risks, Particularly Currency Risks Decentralized Services – Many Local Mayors Unreliable Business Partners Weak and Untested Regulatory Oversight Generates Great Uncertainty Low Foreign Content – Financing More Difficult – Affordability


The Big One: Water scarcity and the next global food crises?

“If present trends continue the livelihoods of one third of the world’s population will be affected by water scarcity by 2025.

We could be facing annual losses equivalent to the entire

grain crops of India and the UScombined.”

http://dlc.dlib.indiana.edu/DLCImage/images/Mali2006-303-full.jpg


Source: UN, Water a shared responsibility,New York 2006

Regions where water withdrawals are exceeding natural supply


We know what we have to do about OIL

SubstitutionGet GreenMove to post carbon economy Many stimulus packages focus

USA doing better than CanadaWatch out – energy choices have big water impacts!


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But what do we do about water?


Hard and soft options – hard lessons


Saudi Arabia scraps wheat growing to save water

Reuters Tue Jan 8, 2008 11:02am

RIYADH, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia is abandoning a 30-year programme to grow wheat that achieved self-sufficiency but depleted the desert kingdom's scarce water supplies.

The government will start reducing purchases of wheat from local farmers

by 12.5 percent per year from this year,officials from the agriculture and finance ministries said on Tuesday.

The kingdom aims to rely entirely on imports by 2016.

www.the-world-around-water.net


% of potentially utilizable water withdrawn for human purposes

No water scarcityApproaching water scarcity

Water scarce

0% 60% 75% 100%

Water for food and feed today

Future water for food, CA scenario

Water for biofuels*

*Assumes that 10% of gasoline demand is met by biofuels by 2030

We can make it worse: Biofuels: India: and in 2030 (WaterSim analysis : IWMI). Green solution with blue impacts


We can make it better: Growth in yields

United States

China

Latin America

Sub-Saharan Africa


We do have some answers: Growth in cereal production from yield growths (1995-2020)

Source: P.Pinstrup-Andersen, et al. 1999

‘


Based on IWMI WaterSim analysis for the CA

Crop water consumption to 2050

Today

Without productivity improvement

Without Water Productivity Gains, crop consumption doubles


1. To reduce rural poverty2. To improve performance of many systems,

particularly in South Asia3. To keep up with changing food demand4. To adapt to changes – water scarcity,

competition, climate change, energy5. To increase multiple benefits and ecosystem

services, while reducing negative impacts

Invest in Irrigation

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Investing in Irrigation

Irrigated Area

Food price index

World Bank lending for irrigation

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

01960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

320

280

240

200

160

120

80

40

0

Living Planet IndexFreshwater Species

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Dependence on green and blue water 2000

upgrade rainfed agriculture


Ensure secure access (including water rights)

Targeted investments in pro-poor technologies

Local management

Informal irrigation,

Multiple-use systems

Maintaining fisheries,

Complementary public investment and actions are needed in the improvement of markets access and infrastructure

Promising Pathways

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Livestock Water Productivity(Potentially more than doubled and more sustainable)

Improved by:Selecting animal feeds that need less waterEnhancing animal productivityImproving grazing and watering impact of livestock

Through:Integrated investments, development andmanagement of waterand livestock


Integrated Systems – more value per drop

Integrated Agriculture-Aquaculture Systems. Livestock in irrigationMultifunctional AgricultureMultiple Use Systems

‘‘


There are Technical Answers; Not necessarily implementable solution

By common consent, the problem is management. Water is badly or not managed everywhere.

No science innovations required to achieve 90% of the desired water management objectives.The last 10 % can be achieved with better monitoring systems, forecasting, data management, GIS.


Reform is a negotiated political process—high stakes means powerful resistance

Whisky is fer drinkin’

Water is fer fightin’

Mark Twain


The water department don’t want to become Water Warriors….


Cost & affordabilityPrice and profitabilityRisk – market, climate, water availabilityMarketsReliable supply of waterEducationIncentives and institutions

Enabling Conditions


And our own backyard……

In North America we do not prize water as highly as oil in terms of its price or the amount of money we invest in exploring, developing, drilling, transporting, refining, or pumping it out of the source and into the multiple vehicles operated by the average American household.

We do not pay the full cost of maintaining our water infrastructure, much less account for the full value of water’s ecological, economic, or social value in our water utility rates.

We subsidize wasteful water projects and consumptive uses, as well as agriculture and ethanol—all energy-intensive enterprises.


Backyard….cont’d

We charge the same for water whether it is used for drinking or for swimming pools.

We do not allow markets to function in a way that would, economically speaking, enable water to flow to the highest and best uses.

Finally, we pave paradise, fill wetlands, encroach on flood plains, clear forests, and otherwise disrupt natural flow regimes and the water cycle. And

we fail to treat runoff or storm water as a valuable resource that should be retained on site, infiltrated into groundwater, or reused where feasible.


/


injection

Mitigation = Energy


Adaptation = Water

Documents

Climate Change and International Development: UK Parliamentary Briefings. › sites › odi.org.uk › files › odi-assets › ... · 2019-11-11 · Climate Change and International