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Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events in India
Akhilesh Gupta Adviser & Head
Climate Change Programme Department of Science & Technology
Government of India Email: [email protected]
K.J. Ramesh
Director General, India Meteorological Department
Ministry of Earth Sciences New Delhi
Email: [email protected]
Global mean temperature
change
Each of the past 3 decades has been the warmest since 1850
Observed Trend in Ocean Warming
More than 90% of the energy accumulating in the climate system between 1971 and 2010 has accumulated in the ocean
Land temperatures remain at historic highs while ocean temperatures continue to climb
Global climate change Frequency of Global Natural Disasters during 1970-2014
Number of Global Natural Disasters and Reported Deaths during 1900-2011
Number of Natural Disasters Continent-wise during 1970-2014
All-India Temperature Time Series
Source: India Meteorological Department, National Climate Centre, Pune
INTER-ANNUAL MONSOON
RAINFALL VARIABILITY
All India Rainfall : Decreasing Trend since 1941
TREND OF RAINFALL DURING SW MONSOON AND ANNUAL (mm of rainfall in 100 years)
Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Rainfall
Low & Moderate events
Heavy events (>10cm)
Low and Moderate events
V. Heavy events (>15cm)
Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events over India in a Warming Environment
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0
100
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0
200
400
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
1000
1200
1400
1600
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0
500
n
Years
Winter
n
Years
Pre-Monsoon
n
Years
Monsoon
n
Years
Post-Monsoon
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
1500
2000
2500
n
Years
Annual
Number of long spell rain events. Continuous rainfall for ≥4 days over all India in
different seasons. The red line is linear trend line.
The number of long spell rainfall events shows decreasing trend in monsoon season in last 54 years. This suggests that planetary scale motions, may be southwest monsoon over the country is weakening.
Dash et al. 2009 J. Geophys. Res. Vol. 114
Winter Pre-Monsoon Monsoon
Post-Monsoon Annual
y = -0.0183x + 6.3291
R2 = 0.1031
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1891
1896
1901
1906
1911
1916
1921
1926
1931
1936
1941
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Y E A R S
FR
EQ
UE
NC
YDecreasing Frequency of Total Number of
Cyclonic Storms over India during 1891-2006
Frequencies of Monsoon Cyclonic Disturbances along with their trends over North Indian Ocean
(1890-1999)
Increasing Frequency of Total Number of Low
Pressure Areas over India during past 123 years
(1888-2009)
Total Number of Flood Events in India (1980-2006)
Decreasing
Trend in
Total Flood
Events
during past
25 years
Number of Flash Flood Events in India (1980-2006)
Increasing
Trend in
Flash Flood
Events
during past
25 years
P. Rohini, M. Rajeevan & A. K. Srivastava, 2016
Trend in Frequency and Duration of
Heat Waves in India (1966-2014)
2015 Heat Wave over East Coast of India
Observed Heat Index
Predicted Heat Index
IC: 0516
Prediction of Heat Waves
Courtesy: IITM Pune
Summary of Recent Observed Trend of Extreme Events over India
Monsoon Rainfall
Monsoon Rainfall variability
Light/Moderate Rainfall
Heavy/Very Heavy Rainfall
Long Spell of Rainfall
Short Spell of Rainfall
Drought
Summary of Recent Observed Trend of Extreme Events over India
Cyclonic Storms
Cyclonic Disturbances
Low Pressure Areas
Large Scale Floods
Flash Floods
Heat Waves
Climate Projections Av. Surface temperature: Increase by 2 - 4°C during 2050s
Monsoon Rainfall: Marginal changes in monsoon months (JJAS)
: Large changes during non-monsoon
months
No. of rainy days: set to decrease by
more than 15 days
Intensity of rains : to increase
by 1-4 mm/day
Cyclonic storms: Increase in frequency and intensity of cyclonic
storms
Prediction Capability of Extreme Weather Events in India:
Some Recent Developments
Resolution and Physical Processes in Numerical Weather Prediction Models improved significantly
India acquired High Performance Computing resources (~1PF)
Considerable improvement in prediction accuracy of extreme events – Lead time for forecasting extended
Cyclone Roanu 17-23 May 2016
IC: 11 May
OBS
MME
Track Prediction for Cyclone Roanu (~ 15 days in advance)
Unusual Track of Cyclone “Kyant” – 21-28 Oct, 2016
OBSERVED TRACK FOR CYCLONIC STORM “KYANT” OVER BAY OF BENGAL DURING 21-28
OCTOBER 2016
Cyclone Track Forecast Errors (2003-15)
Steps required to meet the Challenges emerging out of
Extreme Events Warning Systems needed for all Extreme
events Multi-Hazard Integrated Decision Support System Need for greater synergy between State and Central government agencies Wider Outreach needed Need for mainstreaming disaster risk into development process
Multi-layered Data Base Management and Modeling
Model to analyze and
predict impact of events to desired level
Data level Country State District Taluk Block Village
Multiple Scenario based on
data level & event
Integrated Disaster Management Concept
Disaster Observation &
Monitoring
Prediction
Prediction
models
Advanced & Dense
Observational Network
High resolution
Data assimilation
High speed computer
Impact Assessment Village level data bank
Data type
Geographic
Demographic
Geo-technical
Geological
Topographical
Meteorological
Seismological
Decision Support System
Decision type
Sociological
Geo-political
Economical
Administrative
Security
Law & Order Dissemination of
Early Warnings
Communication system
Wide Area network-upto village level
Disaster proof-satellite based-2 way
Location specific
administrative
Actions
Feedback
State Gov
S
S&T Capacity Building in Climate Change in India:
DST’s initiative
Akhilesh Gupta Adviser & Head
Climate Change Programme Department of Science & Technology
Government of India Email: [email protected]
Strengths: 3000 Scientists 400 scientists with International
recognition 450 Institutions teaching/doing Research 100 years of systematic Climate Data
Weaknesses:
Fragmented Research efforts Weak linkage between Science and Policy Limited linkage with the Society Absence of partnership with private sector
Status of S&T Capacity in Climate Science in India
Eight National Missions on Climate Change
National Solar Mission National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency National Mission on Sustainable Habitat National Water Mission National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan
Eco-system National Mission for a Green India National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for
Climate Change Both the missions call for mission mode actions to build, strengthen and sustain national S&T capacities
Existing Programmes of Climate Change Programme, DST
4 Centres of Excellence, one each at Divecha Centre for CC, IISc, Bangalore; IIT Bombay; IIT Madras and ICRISAT, Hyderabad
12 major R&D Programmes 2 National Network Programmes one each on climate Modeling and
Climate Change & Human Health 8 Global Technology Watch Groups (GTWGs) in the areas of
Renewable Energy Technology, Advance Coal Technology, Enhanced Energy Efficiency, Green Forest, Sustainable Habitat, Water, Sustainable Agriculture and Manufacturing
Indo-Swiss Capacity Building Programme in glaciology Inter-University Consortium on Himalayan Cryosphere and Climate
Change 6 Thematic Task Forces 18 State CC Centres Indo-US Fulbright-Kalam Doctoral and Post-Doctoral Fellowships in
Climate Change
New Programmes under CCP-DST Launched Recently
Centres of Excellence (4) Major R&D Programmes (8) Human Capacity Building Programmes (7) Network Programme on CC & Human Health (19) Network Progrmme on Climate Modeling (13) Network Programme on CC & Agriculture (49) Network Programme on CC & Coastal Vulnerability
(10) State CC Centres (3) – Arunachal Pradesh,
Maharashtra and Orissa Indo-US Fulbright-Kalam Fellowships (6 annually) Indo-Swiss Joint Research Programme (2 Networks) National and International Professor Chairs (50)
Proposed Centres of Excellence and Major R&D
Programmes SN CoE’s location
1 IIT Kharagpur
2 BHU, Varanasi
3 IIT Delhi
4 National Institute of Malaria Research
SN MRDP’s location
1 ISSER, Pune
2 CUSAT, Kochi
3 NBRI, Lucknow
4 IISc Bangalore
5 Andhra Univ
6 IIT Guwahati
7 IIT Bhubaneshwar
8 ISSER Mohali
Summary of Programmes of CCP-DST
Centres of Excellence
Major R&D Programmes
Network Programmes
Global Technology Watch Groups
Thematic Task Forces
State CC Centres
Human Cap. Build. Programme
10 CoEs – 8 institutions- 85 scientists
20 MRDPs –20 institutions-95 scientists
6 Network programmes -90 projects 62 institutions- 250 scientists
8 GTWGs–10 institutions –27 scientists
6 TFs – 27 institutions – 82 scientists
21 SCCCs –21 institutions–42 scientists
6 HCBPs – 6 institutions – 21 scientists
Inter-University Consortium
4 institutions – 14 scientists
164 programs-158 institutions-616 scientists
Locations of DST-CCP Programmes (Existing + New)
Total No of programmes/
projects: 164 Total no of
institutions: 158 Total no of
scientists: 616
AP Mitra Climate Change National and International
Professor Chairs
Total 50 such chairs will be positioned in next 5 years in key Indian institutions pursuing research in climate science, adaptation and mitigation.
Out of these 50, 35 will be for National Professor chairs and remaining 15 for International chairs.
Eligibility for Professor Chairs Open to distinguished scientists/ academicians/
researchers in India/abroad including people from public service, government and social organizations Merit will be judged based on academic
credentials of the candidate The candidate must fulfill certain essential
criteria (qualification/experience) The appointment shall be on contract basis for
a period of 3 years extendable upto 5 years after a rigorous review process. The candidate should preferably be below 70
years at the time of appointment.
New Programmes in Offing
Collaborative Programmes with ICIMOD – Himalayan University Consortium Fellowship programme Human Capacity Building Programmes National & Regional workshops Long term Research programme
Institutional Capacity Building programme for the Indian Himalayan region – Centres of Excellence (5) Major R&D Programmes (10-15) Human Capacity Building Programmes (10)
Young Scientist Mentoring & Leadership Programme
The programmes aims at developing leadership in climate research in India
Mapping of young and bright climate scientists below 35 years
Annually 15 such scientists will be selected based on their credentials as evident from their academic qualification and research contribution
They will undergo a Mentoring and training programme guided by a group of internationally acclaimed climate scientists from India & abroad
5 of them will be selected to receive a grant of Rs 3 Cr for 3 years to undertake an independent research as PI.
The grant will also cover support for domestic and international travel
Concluding Remarks India has a strong climate change research
base in terms of number of quality researchers, data and infrastructure
The Country is witnessing emergence of a large number of research institutions (mostly extra-mural) in climate science areas
Climate Change Programme (CCP) DST has emerged as the largest source of extra-mural funding (nearly 60% of total) in climate change research in the country
CCP aims to build, strengthen and sustain S&T Capacity in the country in climate change research.
Over 600 scientists are contributing to CCP programmes today. We aim to cover nearly 2000 scientists in next 5-8 years
CCP has outlined a long term strategy to focus on Excellence, Expansion and Equity
S
Thanks !!