EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS IN INDIA- A PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS ON IMPACT

AJAY SINGH, ANAND PATWARDHAN, ABHIJAT ABHYANKAR and NANDLAL SARDA

Presentation

• Introduction• Importance of EXTREMES in changing

climate• Data and Methodology• Findings• Conclusions

Introduction• Climate change may be perceived most through the

impacts of extremes, although these are to a large degree dependent on the system under consideration, including its vulnerability, resiliency and capacity for adaptation and mitigation

• As climate continues to warm, it is expected that many forms of extreme events may also increase, because of the thermal energy

• With the exception of earthquakes, extreme climate events take the heaviest toll on human life and exert some of the highest damage costs related to natural hazards.

Global Warming

• According to the recent IPCC report, the mean global surface temperature has increased by 0.74OC over the last 100 years (1906-2005)

• 11 of the 12 warmest years have been recorded in the past 12 years

Findings of the IPCC Assessment Report (2007)

• There has been a significant decline in the mountain glaciers and snow cover, which has contributed to the increased sea levels

• From 1961 to 2003, the global mean sea level rose by 1.8 (+0.5) mm per year

• The global temperature of the oceans increased by 0.10oC from surface to depth of 700m from 1961- 2003 and 80% of the heat added to the climate system is being absorbed by the ocean

• Other long term climatic changes that have been observed include extreme droughts, intensity of tropical cyclones, changes in the salinity of the ocean and wind patterns

Climate change may entail changes in variance as well as changes in mean

Data and Methodology

• Data on flood, tropical cyclone, heat wave, cold wave also gale, squall, lightning, duststorm, hailstorm and thunderstorm

• From India Meteorological Department• Damage data include information about

mortality, persons affected, village affected, crops affected and total economic loss

• The impact data have been grouped into spatial resolution at state level.

• This state level information have been analyzed for trend and other descriptive statistics.

Significant increase in events

Also significant increase in annual mortality (even if ignoring 1971 and 1999 values)

Trend in occurrence of climate extremes

Except cyclone and gale all the events are significantly increasing

Number

Event Trend (occurrence/y) p-value

cold wave 0.29 0.00

cyclone -0.04 0.08

dust storm 0.17 0.00

flood 3.42 0.00

gale 0.12 0.25

hail storm 1.00 0.00

heat wave 0.55 0.00

lightning 2.75 0.00

squall 0.35 0.00

thunder storm 1.90 0.00

ImpactEvent Trend

(person/y)p-value

Cold wave 5.55 0.06Cyclone -7.58 0.81Dust storm 0.92 0.03Flood 40.25 0Gale 0.09 0.72Hail storm 1.27 0Heat wave 7.77 0.16Lightning 7.36 0Squall 0.23 0.12Thunder Storm 5.07 0

Trend in mortality due to climate extremes

Dust storm, flood, hailstorm, lightning and thunderstorm depict significant increasing trends

Extreme EventLeading States

No. of Event Mortalitycold wave BR BRcyclone AP OR

dust storm UP UPflood MH UPgale KL OR

hail storm MH BRheat wave RJ APlightning MH MHsquall AS WB

thunder storm WB WBTotal events MH OR

Leading states in the extreme events by number and mortality

Total and normalized mortality due to climate extremes

Conclusions

Major share of occurrence of climate extremes is due to floods; and cyclone which has most devastating impact has least share.

Total number of climate extremes considered in the study is significantly increasing in India.

Except cyclone and gale all the extremes depict significant increasing trend.

Maharashtra is the leading state in total number of events and floods while Rajasthan, Bihar and Andhra Pradesh are leading in heat wave, cold wave and cyclone respectively.

Conclusions (cont.)

• Almost all the states depict increasing trends in heatwave and flood occurrences.

• Assessment of occurrence of the climate extremes needs more spatio-temporal details for the study and formulation of policy for impact, vulnerability and adaptation of climate sensitive sectors and regions.

Conclusions (cont.)• Developing countries such as India have low

adaptive capacity to withstand the adverse impacts of climate change due to the high dependence of a majority of the population on climate-sensitive sectors, such as agriculture, forestry and fisheries, coupled with poor infrastructure facilities, weak institutional mechanisms and lack of financial resources.

• India is therefore, seriously concerned with the possible impacts of climate change.

• The assessment of climate change impacts, and vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, require a wide range of physical, biological and socioeconomic models, methods, tools and data.

Conclusions (cont.)

• The methods for assessing the vulnerability, impact and adaptation are gradually improving, but are still inadequate to help policy-makers formulate appropriate adaptation measures.

• Policy-makers must formulate plans to turn disasters into opportunities

• The response to natural disasters, must be for changing underlying conditions for the better, rather than focusing on a superficial rebuilding of what existed before.

• The underlying problems of poverty, poor construction and lack of economic security need to be addressed more comprehensively.

Thank You!