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Today, environmental changeincluding climate change presentsa new threat to human security.Faced with an unconceivable scaleof environmental change, migrationmay be an adjustment mechanism offrst resort, or a survival mechanismof last resort. Migration may bean adaptation mechanism forthose with the resources to moveearly and far enough away fromdanger. Or, in extreme cases and forthose with fewer means to move,migration may be an expressionof failed adaptation. To explore

these possibilities, the EuropeanCommission sponsored theEnvironmental Change and ForcedScenarios (EACH-FOR) project to

h f l

Why do some people remain in6.areas of environmental degradation/change while others migrate? (i.e.what are their coping/adaptationstrategies and capacities?)

How does environmentally7.induced migration occur?(e.g. choice of destination,networks used)

What is the role of peoples8.perception of environmentaldegradation in triggeringthem to move?

Flooding and relocationin Mozambique

Extreme weather as a manifestationf l h l

signicant rural-urban migrationpaerns for ood-aected groups.

Instead, the research revealed thatgovernment-organised reselementprogrammes dominate theenvironmentally induced movementpaern for ood-aected areas.

Reselement removes people fromthe physical danger of extremeoods but can lead to otherenvironmental, social and economicdiculties. Subsistence farmersand shers are moved away fromfertile lands on riverbanks and tohigher, drought-prone areas. Somereseled people aempt to returnperiodically to work in their eldsin low-lying river areas in order tomaintain land ownership and theirlivelihoods as farmers. Reselement

oen causes these people to losetheir livelihoods, forcing relocatedhouseholds to depend almost entirelyon governmental and international

d A h

The Envirnmental Change and Frced Migratin

Scenaris (EACH-FoR) prject is a systematic attempt t

detect the degree t which, and the pathways thrugh

which, envirnmental stressrs affect migratin.1

Field bservatins andempirical researchKoko Warner, Olivia Dun and Marc Stal

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h i f i l f li h i i i l id A h

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The Mekong Delta, as the ricebowl of the country, plays a crucialrole in helping Vietnam meet itsdevelopment goals. Flooding is aregular annual occurrence and is anintegral part of the livelihoods of thepopulation living in the area. Giventhe areas fertility plus various factorsrelating to territorial expansion anddefence, Vietnam has a history ofgovernment-initiated (re)selement

and spontaneous migration towardsthe delta. Currently, however,the Mekong Delta is witnessing anet outow of migrants, due to acomplex blend of economic, social,and environmental factors.

Fieldwork in the Mekong Deltaindicates links between oodingand migration/displacement. Aquestionnaire sample collectedfrom Vietnamese migrants inCambodia indicated that half ofthe migrants decided to migratein part because of environmentalproblems. The ndings illustratesome of the connections betweenooding and population movement:

During the ooding season,people undertake seasonallabour migration and movement

towards urban centres tobolster livelihoods.

People directly dependent onagriculture for their livelihood(usually rice farmers) areparticularly vulnerable toenvironmentally inducedmigration. Successive oodingevents can destroy crops anddrive people to migrate in search

of alternative livelihoods.

Migrants and experts notedthat human tracking intoneighbouring areas was one(extreme) coping strategyused by families exposed towater-related stresses.

As part of a ood managementand environmental sanitationstrategy, the government iscurrently undertaking plannedreselement of people living invulnerable zones along river banks.

Conclusions

Environmental factors contributeto migration in the cases observed,

particularly through pressures onlivelihoods. Environmental factorsinteract with multiple other drivers to

inuence migration. If environmentalconditions change to the extent thatcertain regions experience systematiccollapse in livelihood chains, thenenvironmentally induced migrationcould aect a larger number of peoplethan currently observed in initialeldwork performed by the EACH-FOR project.

Environmentally induced migration

occurs when ecological tipping pointsare exceeded points in time whenenvironmental pressures mountand so threaten human security thatpeople begin to factor environmentalconditions into their migrationdecisions. What is still unknown ishow and to what degree mountingenvironmental pressures will aectand trigger migration. Neither is itknown whether those who migraterst are relatively well o or thosewith the greatest direct dependenceon the quality of the environment.Empirical research is needed toestablish the degree to whichmigration is a coping mechanism andhow migration helps households tosecure desired standards of living.

Environmentally induced migrationhas profound policy relevance for

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human security. Climate-relatedstressors combined with ecosystemchange (such as land degradationand water shortages) and rapid-onsetevents (such as ooding and extremestorms) already drive migration orprompt national governments to planfor the relocation and reselementof aected populations. Governmentresponses vary from giving incentivesto mandating relocation, with mixed

results. Reselement programmesalso have their costs and benets:people are moved away fromphysical exposure to hazards butmay faced increased debt and lossof livelihoods aer reselement.

Recommendations

build a strong scientic basis:research is needed to accuratelyidentify, measure and characteriseenvironmentally induced migrants.

increase awareness: knowledgeabout environmental degradationand climate change can armgovernments, migrants andpotential migrants against humansecurity crises. Awareness canhelp avoid maladaptation.

improve legal frameworks at theregional and multilateral level:

policy and legal frameworksneed to address environmentallyinduced migration.

ensure adequate and appropriatehumanitarian response toavoid escalating crises

strengthen institutions andpolicies: the magnitude of futureenvironmentally induced migrationdepends in part on longer-term

environmental and developmentpolicies. Institutions must bestrengthened so that they canappropriately manage migrationlinked to environmental change.4

Koko Warner (warner@ehs.unu.edu),Olivia Dun (dun@ehs.unu.edu) andMarc Stal (stal@ehs.unu.edu) work

in the section on EnvironmentalMigration, Social Vulnerability andAdaptation at the UN UniversityInstitute for Environment andHuman Security (UNU-EHS) inBonn, Germany (www.ehs.unu.edu).

1. EACH-FOR is a two-year scoping project fundedthrough the European Commissions 6th FrameworkProgramme: www.each-for.eu. The UN University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) is one of seven partners in the project.

2. See www.each-for.eu/index.php?module=eld_research. For methodology, see A and Warner TheImpact of Environmental Degradation on Migration Flowsacross Countries Working Paper No. 5/2008. UNU-EHS,Bonn. www.ehs.unu.edu/article:476?menu=94.

3. Dasgupta S,Laplante B,Meisner C, Wheeler DandJianping Y, The impact of sea level rise on developingcountries: a comparative analysis, World Bank, February2007: www.worldbank.org/reference/

4. These recommendations follow those discussed inRenaud, Bogardi, Dun and Warner (2007), Control, Adaptor Flee? How to face Environmental Migration? InterSecTionsNo. 5/2007. UNU-EHS, Bonn.

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