Climate and Environmental Change Displacement, Health and Security

Cristina Tirado von der Pahlen, DVM, MS, PhD

UN Standing Committee for Nutrition WG on Climate Change Chair of the IUNS Climate and Nutrition Task Force

cristinatirado@ucla.edu

www.unscn.org

Carbon Dioxide Levels hit their highest point

in 800,000 years CO2 increased from pre-industrial level of ~ 280 ppm to > 403 ppm in 2015

=

1.8 -4.5 oC

(IPCC, 2007;2014))

Summary of Direction, Magnitude, and Certainty of Projected Climate impacts on Health (IPCC, 2007)

Negative Impact Positive Impact

Very High Confidence Effects on geographic range & incidence of malaria

High Confidence Undernutrition & consequent children developmental disorders Injuries, deaths, disease - Extreme events (heatwaves, floods, droughts, fires, etc) Cardio-respiratory diseases - poor air quality Cold-related deaths

Medium Confidence Diarrheal diseases

Increase in frecuency & intensity of extreme weather

events (high degree of confidence IPCC, 2007, 2012)

Projected increase people exposed to floods in 2030 compared with 1970

Source WHO, 2012

Coastal floods-Sea Level rise 2 to 7 million more people/ year will experience

coastal flooding by 2080 (IPCC 2007)

Impacts in Small Island Developing States and coastal areas in LAC

• Coastal flooding • Amplified storm surges • Impaired crop & food production • Salination of island fresh-water • Damaged coastal infrastructure, roads, power, water

treatment systems • Population displacement: diverse health risks (food-

water-, vector- borne diseases, respiratory, ophthalmological, mental consequences etc)

Most vulnerable populations to Climate Change IPCC 2007 (high confidence)

Climate change and food security

-50% -15% 0%

+35% +15% 2080

10

Central America Dry Corridor

Effects of Carbon Dioxide on Protein and Minerals US Global Climate Change Research Program- Climate and Health Assessment 2015

doubling of CO2 concentration from preindustrial levels

2100

Meinshausen et al. 2013

Average effect on 125 plant species and cultivars

Ziska et al. 2004, Taub et al. 2008, and Loladze 2014.)

Droughts and Hunger 870 million people suffer from long-term hunger

By 2080 1 - 3 billion people will experience water scarcity

200 to 600 million, hunger (IPCC 2007; 2014)

Environmental Refugees UNDP (2006)

Unsustainability = Unsecurity

UNEP, 2007

Synthesis of evidence on the impacts of climate on human security interactions between livelihoods, conflict, culture & migration (IPCC, 2014)

Interventions and policies indicated by difference between initial conditions (solid black) and outcome of intervention (white circles) Some interventions (blue arrows) show net increase human security while red arrows lead to net decrease in human security

Climate Change and Human Security (IPCC 2014)

Climate change will have

significant impacts on forms of migration that

compromise human security (high agreement,

medium evidence)

Models, scenarios and observations

suggest that coastal

inundation and loss of

permafrost can lead to migration and resettlement

Changes in the incidence of

extreme events will amplify the challenges and risks of existing displacement.

Many vulnerable groups do not

have the resources to be

able to migrate to avoid the impacts of floods, storms

and droughts.

Migrants may be vulnerable to

climate impacts in destination

areas, particularly in

urban centres in developing countries

Climate, Health and Migration Causal connections

Climate, Migration, Conflict, Injury Causal connections

Relationship between vulnerability to environmental change and mobility

Populations most exposed and vulnerable to the impacts of climate change have least ability to migrate

Adapted from Black et al., 2013

Climate-induced migration Migration and other forms of spatial mobility - common responses for coping with & adapting to environmental hardship, stress and risks Not a new topic: •Essam El-Hinnawi, Environmental Refugees, 1985 •First IOM definition of environmental migration, 1992 •Graeme Hugo’s Environmental concerns and Int’ migration,1996 Renewed interest: •consequences of environmental change for human well-being and population mobility; •debate about migration as a viable adaptation strategy; •environmental displacement has the potential for triggering governance and security challenges

Relationship of climate and human movement

Health implications of forced displacement:

Food shortages, restricted access to food and acute malnutrition particularly high in children < 5 years in refugee camps

High level of micronutrient deficiency diseases in refugee camps (niacin, scorbutic -Vitamin C deficiency ) (UNHCR/WFP 2006)

Iron deficiency - 18-20% women of reproductive health are pregnant or breastfeeding

Spread of communicable diseases, including HIV and Influenza

Disruption of family and social structures, sexual violence and lack of access to health and reproductive services (gender issues)

Post-displacement stressors - Increase in the prevalence of psychosocial problems (McMichael, 2004)

Health implications of planned resettlement

Associated health problems include: food insecurity, unsafe water supply, inadequate sewage systems and increased infectious diseases and mental outcomes

Resettlement schemes typically related to adverse social outcomes: landless, jobless, homeless, social margination and food insecurity

Malnutrition due to the environmental, market and social conditions where previously people secured food differ from the new conditions

In Indigenous populations in North America and Australia resettlement has created cultural disruption, depression, alcoholism and dietary disorders

Health implications of urban migration • Migration as an adaptive strategy to climate change impacts on floods,

water shortages, droughts, land loss, livelihood loss etc. • Better access to food, health services, water and sanitation and

infrastructures

• Rural to urban migration to the periphery areas in LAC – slums or favelas - Migrants vulnerable to climate impacts in destination areas - particularly in urban centres:

Urban Heat Island effect Floods and mudslides

Migration as strategy for climate adaptation to health

• Help access improved livelihoods, health, food, sanitation services, and

infrastructures thus reducing their overall vulnerability.

• Key to avoid forced human mobility induced by climate change by supporting other adaptation strategies and ensuring support to displaced people.

• Human mobility needs to be integrated into national climate adaptation planning, to address key mobility challenges and to harness the potential of migration as an adaptation strategy.

• Health and loss and damage as a human rights and climate justice issue.

Mainstreaming health at the UNFCCC

Events by type of climate related extreme weather event in LAC 2004-2013

Source: Tirado et al. 2015 with data from Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters

Storm (tropical cyclone)

27%

Storm (convective)

15.6%

Storm (others or not informed)

2.2%

Storm (extra tropical cyclone)

0.3%

Drought 5%

Extreme temperature

5.8%

Flood 43.9%

87% floods/storms

Number of deaths by type of climate related

extreme weather event, LAC 2004-2013 Tirado et al. 2015

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Num

ber o

f dea

ths

Years

Storm Flood Drought Extreme temperature

Tirado et al. 2015

Urban setting Displaced and vulnerable populations

Tirado et al. 2015

Urban and rural settings Displaced and vulnerable populations

Extreme weather events, displacement and health risks and in the Caribbean

• foodborne diseases: diarrheal diseases salmonellosis and typhoid fever;

• waterborne diseases: cryptosporidiosis, schistosomiasis, and cholera;

• mal-nutrition resulting from impacts in food access or distribution – displaced populations and NCDs

• insect- and rodent- borne diseases, such as leptospirosis, dengue, malaria, and yellow fever;

• respiratory diseases: asthma, bronchitis, allergies and infections

• anxiety and stress

Tirado et al. 2015

Course on Food Safety, Nutrition and Health in Climate related emergencies in the Caribbean

Alerts of selected infectious diseases affecting the Americas from 2004-2013

20498

16238

13673

3463 2732

1681 1284 1267 1086 769 584 201 73 0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Dis

ease

Ale

rts