Climate Change and Development - SOAS University of London · Key to understanding these issues and concerns are the politics that underlie climate change and development interactions

Centre for Development, Environment and Policy

Climate Change and Development

Revised and updated for 2018 by Andrew Newsham, Ben Daley, Colin Poulton, Sibongile Pradhan, Sabine Guendel and Laurence Smith.

Original material by Judith Cherni, Ben Daley, Andrew Dorward, Sabine Guendel, Jon Macartney, Rachel Godfrey Wood and Valerie Nelson. Subsequent revisions by Frauke Urban and Sibongile Pradhan.

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Climate Change and Development Module Introduction

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ABOUT THIS MODULE

This module provides a multidisciplinary understanding of climate change processes

and their direct and indirect interactions with development. It describes the main

climate change processes, scenarios and vulnerabilities, and international and national

policy responses. Different sectors’ contributions and sensitivities to climate change

(and to mitigation and adaptation responses) are identified, with their implications for

policies and outcomes for different economies, and for people’s livelihoods within them.

The module aims to provide students with a foundational, multidisciplinary

understanding of core issues and processes related to climate change, and their

interactions with development and with poverty and poverty reduction.

Students will be best equipped to respond to, indeed anticipate, the rapidly changing

science, environmental and social/political/economic contexts of climate change by an

education in integrative core processes. Learning about these core processes is

contextualised with relevant applied explanations and illustrations/cases.

The module considers issues in both ‘developed’ and ‘emerging’ economies, as well as

in poor developing economies. Those concerned about climate change and

development in poorer economies need to understand more about ‘northern’ issues.

This is because the mitigation and adaptation policies in the north affect poor people in

the south in terms of ‘direct’ impacts on global emissions (in the case of mitigation

policies), but also, and very importantly, in terms of their ‘indirect’ impacts on market

and other livelihood/economic opportunities and constraints affecting individuals,

communities, and national and regional economies.

An emphasis on development and poverty (or more ‘southern’ issues) is also highly

relevant to those with more exclusive northern interests, as global integration means

that, increasingly, southern problems affect the north. This might happen, for example,

through global climate/ocean processes, through policy demands from large newly

industrialised countries, or through migration pressures. There are also major ethical

issues regarding developed economy emissions, national mitigation and adaptation

policies, and negotiations in international and regional fora.

Key to understanding these issues and concerns are the politics that underlie climate

change and development interactions. Throughout the module, we will explore three

overarching ways in which politics are important to climate change and development:

(1) Current political and economic priorities, essentially clustered around the

desire for increased annual economic growth, are fundamentally implicated in

the generation of greenhouse gases which give rise to (anthropogenic) climate

change.

(2) Not only are climate impacts uneven in their global distribution, there are also

important differences among the people who will be exposed to those impacts:

small island states, poorer versus richer countries, with differing levels of

responsibility for current and historical climate emissions, etc. The diverse

interests, power imbalances and relationships between these different countries

and peoples shape the politics of climate change and development.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newly_industrialized_countries

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newly_industrialized_countries


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(3) Some understandings of climate change, and how to respond to it, become

prominent, perhaps even dominant, pushing perspectives and forms of

intervention in particular directions, to the exclusion or marginalisation of

others.

Priority topics are the links between climate change and development, the basics of

climate science, adaptation and mitigation options for various sectors, and the

international climate policy process.


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STRUCTURE OF THE MODULE

The module includes:

• Climate science to provide an understanding of the main natural processes

involved in climate change, of the main factors affecting it, and of the likely

nature and extent of future climate change (and of the basis and uncertainties

involved in climate change predictions).

• The main issues affecting climate change politics, policies and policy process

development. This builds on scientific understanding to identify (a) major

policy goals, (b) major difficulties inherent in political economy processes and

technical policy formulation, and (c) ways forward to address those difficulties.

• Implications of climate change and responses for development policies and

outcomes for poor people with different livelihoods across the world.

• Climate change interactions among particular sectors with regard to (a)

their contribution to climate change, (b) potential mitigation of contributions,

(c) sensitivity to climate change, and (d) potential adaptation to climate change.

Part I Introduction

(1) Climate Change and Development Challenges

(2) Conceptualising Climate Problems and Responses

Part II Understanding climate change

(3) The Science of Climate Change

(4) Observed Climate Change and Future Projections

Part III Responding to climate change

(5) Climate Change Ethics and Politics

(6) Climate Change Economics and Policy Implications

(7) Mitigation Polices and Development

(8) Adaptation Policies in Development

Part IV Sectors and climate change

(9) Climate Change and Water

(10) Climate Change and Agriculture

(11) Climate Change and Energy

(12) Climate Change and Transport

(13) Climate Change, Industry and Settlements

(14) Climate Change, Disasters, Conflict and Migration

(15) Climate Change, Health and Sustainability


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WHAT YOU WILL LEARN

Module Aims

The module is aimed at postgraduate students and professionals from a range of

disciplinary and professional backgrounds who need to understand more about climate

change and development for their existing work or for branching out into new fields of

work. It provides a foundational understanding of core natural and social science

processes, and of technical and policy issues on which students can develop

subsequent, more specialised interests, knowledge and skills.

The specific aims of the module are:

• to promote students’ understanding of the relationships between climate

change and development, in particular, the major impacts of climate change on

development and of development on climate change

• to promote students’ understanding of processes and factors affecting the

potential impacts and effectiveness of different policy responses to climate

change, particularly with regard to their impacts on development

• to enable students to apply this understanding to policy analysis, design and

implementation tasks

• to provide a foundation from which students’ understanding of climate change

and development can be maintained as the understanding of climate science,

climate change, policies, and related social conditions, changes.

Module Learning Outcomes

By the end of this module, students should be able to:

• detail and assess critically the relationships between climate change and

development, in particular, the major impacts of climate change on development

and of development on climate change

• review critically processes and factors affecting the potential impacts and

effectiveness of different policy responses to climate change, particularly with

regard to their impacts on development

• develop independently their understanding of the points above with regard to

specific issues in which they have particular interests

• apply this understanding to policy analysis, design and implementation tasks

• update and develop their critical understanding of climate change and

development as climate science understanding, climate change, policies and

related social conditions change, and maintain this understanding through

knowledge and critical appreciation of key data and other information sources.


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ASSESSMENT

This module is assessed by:

• a 500-word commentary and critical discussion on a key reading, and

assessment of the commentaries of two other students (10%)

• a 3000-word examined assignment (EA), with an element of online interaction

and discussion, worth 40%

• a two-hour written examination worth 50%.

Since the EA is an element of the formal examination process, please note the following:

(a) The EA questions and submission date will be available on the Virtual Learning

Environment (VLE).

(b) The EA is submitted by uploading it to the VLE.

(c) The EA is marked by the module tutor and students will receive a percentage

mark and feedback.

(d) Answers submitted must be entirely the student’s own work and not a product

of collaboration.

(e) Plagiarism is a breach of regulations. To ensure compliance with the specific

University of London regulations, all students are advised to read the guidelines

on referencing the work of other people. For more detailed information, see the

FAQ on the VLE.


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STUDY MATERIALS

There is one textbook for this module.

Tanner, T. & Horn-Phathanothai, L. (2014) Climate Change and Development. Oxon,

Routledge.

Climate Change and Development is written by two leading thinkers in the field of

climate change and development. It provides an excellent overview of development

issues in a changing climate. The book covers the climate and development nexus, the

international climate change regime and the need for adaptation, mitigation and

climate finance. It also addresses solutions for a future ‘transformed’ world.

Key Study Materials

These are drawn mainly from the textbook, relevant academic journals and

internationally respected reports. With the exception of textbooks, all Key Study

Materials are provided digitally via the Online Library or weblinks. Readings add

breadth and depth to the unit materials and are required reading as they contain

material on which students may be examined. The notes under each resource indicate

its scope and relevance. For some topics, multimedia has also been provided to

summarise issues, provide case studies, or cover topics which are more challenging to

understand. Feel free to use the VLE Discussion Forum to discuss any of the materials

and their implications with other students and the tutor.

Further Study Materials

These texts and multimedia may not be provided via the Online Library, but weblinks

have been included where possible. Further Study Materials are NOT examinable and

are provided to enable students to pursue their own areas of interest.

The further readings listed below will be useful for the whole module.

IPCC. (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working

Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels,

Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United

Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp.

Available from: http://www.climatechange2013.org/ and

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/

An overview of the latest 2013/2014 findings on climate change — the physical science

— by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The ‘summary for

policymakers’ is a Key Reading for some units.

Available from: http://www.climatechange2013.org/spm

http://www.climatechange2013.org/


http://www.climatechange2013.org/spm


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IPCC. (2014) Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution

of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC), Geneva, Switzerland. [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J.

Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B.

Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea and L.L. White (eds.)].

Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, 1132 pp.

Available from: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/

An overview of the latest 2014 findings on climate change – impacts, adaptation and

vulnerability – by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Please read at

least the summary for policymakers:

Available from: https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/ar5_wgII_spm_

en.pdf

IPCC. (2014) Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of

Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change [Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K.

Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J. Savolainen, S.

Schlomer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwickel and J.C. Minx (Eds.)]. Cambridge University Press,

Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Available from: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/

The synthesis report of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report is the most up-to-date and

comprehensive report on climate science, climate impacts, mitigation and adaptation.

Please read the summary for policymakers:

Available from: https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_

SPM.pdf

References

Each unit contains a full list of all material cited in the text. This is primarily included as

a matter of good academic practice: to show where points made in the text can be

substantiated. Students are not expected to consult these references as part of their

study of this module.

Self-Assessment Questions

There is a set of Self-Assessment Questions at the end of each section within a unit. It

is important that you work through them in order to check your understanding of basic

concepts and ideas.

In addition, you will find Unit Self-Assessment Questions at the end of each unit,

which aim to help you assess your broader understanding of the unit material. Answers

to the Self-Assessment Questions are provided in the Answer Booklet.


https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/‌wg2/ar5_wgII_‌spm_‌en.pdf

https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/‌wg2/ar5_wgII_‌spm_‌en.pdf


https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/‌AR5_SYR_‌FINAL_‌SPM.pdf

https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/‌AR5_SYR_‌FINAL_‌SPM.pdf


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In-text Questions

This icon invites you to answer a question for which an answer is provided. Try

not to look at the answer immediately; first write down what you think is a

reasonable answer to the question before reading on. This is equivalent to

lecturers asking a question of their class and using the answers as a springboard

for further explanation.

In-text Activities

This symbol invites you to halt and consider an issue from a more personal

perspective. You are often invited to share your thoughts on the Discussion

Forum.

Key Terms and Concepts

At the end of each unit you are provided with a list of Key Terms and Concepts which

have been introduced in the unit. The first time these appear in the text guide they are

bold italicised.

Acronyms and Abbreviations

As you progress through the module you may need to check unfamiliar acronyms that

are used. A full list of these is provided for you in your study guide.


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INDICATIVE STUDY CALENDAR

Unit / Assessment

deadline

Unit title Study time

(300 hours)

Study week

(16 weeks)

Unit 1 Climate Change and Development Challenges 15 1

Unit 2 Conceptualising Climate Problems and

Responses 15 2

Assessment Critical Commentary and Peer Assessment 10 2—3

Unit 3 The Science of Climate Change 15 3

Unit 4 Observed Climate Change and

Future Projections 15 4

Unit 5 Climate Change Ethics and Politics 15 5

Unit 6 Climate Change Economics and Policy

Implications 15 6

Unit 7 Mitigation Policies and Development 15 7

Unit 8 Adaptation Policies in Development 15 8

Assessment Examined Assignment 25 9

Unit 9 Climate Change and Water 15 10

Unit 10 Climate Change and Agriculture 15 11

Unit 11 Climate Change and Energy 15 12

Unit 12 Climate Change and Transport 15 13

Unit 13 Climate Change Interactions with Industry and

Settlements 15 14

Unit 14 Climate Change, Disasters, Conflict and

Migration 15 15

Unit 15 Climate Change, Health and Sustainability 15 16

Examination revision 40

After end

of study

session

Unit One: Climate Change and Development Challenges

Unit Information 2 Unit Overview 2 Unit Aims 2 Unit Learning Outcomes 2 Unit Interdependencies 3

Key Study Materials 4

1.0 Climate change and development: the challenges of our time 5 Section Overview 5 Section Learning Outcomes 5 1.1 Climate change challenges 5 1.2 Development challenges 9 1.3 Climate change and development interactions 13 Section 1 Self-Assessment Questions 19

2.0 Short histories of development and climate change policies 20 Section Overview 20 Section Learning Outcomes 20 2.1 A brief history of development policy 20 2.2 A brief history of climate change policy 25 Section 2 Self-Assessment Questions 29

Unit Summary 31

Unit Self-Assessment Questions 32

Key Terms and Concepts 33

Further Study Materials 35

References 39

Climate Change and Development Unit 1

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UNIT INFORMATION

Unit Overview

This unit introduces ‘Climate Change and Development’. Tackling climate change and achieving development are two major challenges facing the world. They are also intimately related. Human activities fundamental to development – industry, land use, energy generation and transport – are root causes of anthropogenic climate change. Conversely, climate change impacts hold the greatest threat for the livelihood activities and development prospects of poor and marginalised people. Section 1 sets out the scale and importance of the challenges posed by climate change and underdevelopment. It is followed, in Section 2, by a brief history of global efforts to address these problems.

Unit Aims

• To set out the importance of climate change and development as independent topics, and introduce their interrelations.

• To define climate change and development.

• To explain the nature of the particular challenges posed by climate change and development, independently and together.

• To introduce the basic types of response that may be made to climate change challenges.

Unit Learning Outcomes

By the end of this unit, students should be able to:

• explain the terms ‘climate change’ and ‘development’

• review the scale of problems posed by climate change and development, and how they interact

• explain why the problems posed by climate change and development are particularly difficult to address

• critically discuss major interactions between mitigation and adaptation as the two major forms of response to climate change challenges.


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Unit Interdependencies

This unit provides the foundation for the rest of the module. Core definitions set out in the unit underpin discussion in subsequent units. Many of the concepts and issues raised in this unit, particularly with regard to climate change and its interactions with development, are expanded on, explained and applied in subsequent units.

Do not worry if some of the climate change science, impacts and policy discussion in this unit are difficult to understand; most of these topics are covered more thoroughly in subsequent units. You may find it helpful to come back to this unit and its key readings as you proceed through the module.

Section 1.2 references the climate-related goals within the wider Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Unit 2 lists the specific targets for the climate change SDG.

Section 2 discusses the history of development policy, among other topics, and gives a brief synopsis of the dominant development discourses of the 20th century, pointing out how prominent the idea of economic growth is in all of them. This is linked to the exercise in Unit 2 on alternative trajectories and, in particular, the notion of degrowth – mentioned in this unit, but dealt with more substantively in Unit 2. Section 2 also explores the history of climate change policy, without engaging in the climate science behind the phenomenon. Treatment of this topic can be found in Unit 3.


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KEY STUDY MATERIALS

IPCC. (2014) Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri & L.A. Meyer (Eds.)]. Geneva, Switzerland, IPCC, 151 pp.

Available from: https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf

You are required to read only pp. 1–31. This is part of an overview of the latest findings on climate change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). You may find it useful to come back to this document in more detail, and read subsequent chapters, while studying later units, once you have a better understanding of climate change and of the terminology. Note the way that the IPCC reports its findings and the confidence/uncertainty around different projections: the concept of uncertainty is central to questions of the relationship between climate models and policy decision-making processes.

For a monthly update of the state of the global climate see: the ‘State of the Climate Global Analysis’ published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center.

Available from: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/

Faccer, K., Nahman, A., & Audouin, M. (2014) Interpreting the green economy: Emerging discourses and their considerations for the Global South. Development Southern Africa, 31 (5), 642–657.

Available from: SOAS Library

‘Green economy’, a term which has come recently to policy prominence, has been seen by one of its key proponents, the United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) Pavan Sukhdev, as the economics required for the kind of sustainable development that would address, rather than exacerbate, climate change. This paper looks at the divergent positions that can be linked to commentators working on green economy or related perspectives, and assesses the implications and impacts of transitions towards a green economy for countries in southern Africa. Ultimately, the paper touches upon the central question for any formulation of sustainable development: its relationship with economic growth. It is ultimately this relationship which will govern the character and outcomes of our attempts to achieve development and avoid dangerous climate change.

https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/

https://www.soas.ac.uk/library/


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1.0 CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT: THE

CHALLENGES OF OUR TIME

Section Overview

This section outlines the context, nature and scale of climate change and development processes both in isolation and in the interactions between them.

Section Learning Outcomes

By the end of this section, students should be able to:

• understand and define in their own words the terms ‘climate change’ and ‘development’

• identify and articulate for themselves key interactions between climate change and development.

1.1 Climate change challenges

What is ‘climate change’?

The term ‘climate change’ refers to change in the longer term pattern of behaviour of the atmosphere over millennia or, more recently, as a result of natural processes or human activity. Climate is distinguished from weather, which is the specific behaviour of the climate at a particular time. Weather is made up of specific events, for example, a particular storm, the rainfall over a particular period, the temperature at a particular time. Climate is about expectations; weather is about events and conditions. ‘Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get’ is often quoted to describe the difference between climate and weather. Both weather and climate may refer to specific places or general areas, but while weather refers to actual time periods, such as dates and times, climate refers to expected conditions in general time periods, for example, spring or summer, day or night, morning or evening. The most important variables that make up the climate are temperature, precipitation (rainfall, snow, hail), wind direction and speed, atmospheric pressure, humidity, the nature and extent of clouds, and hours and intensity of sunlight. There are, however, many possible ways in which climate may be described. These are generally associated with averages or variability in temperature, precipitation, wind and cloud. Climate varies spatially, for example, depending on the distance from the equator or the sea, and temporally, for example, depending on seasonal and daily variations.

For a discussion on the difference between global warming and climate change see 1.1.1.


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1.1.1 Global warming or climate change?

The terms global warming and climate change sometimes appear to be used interchangeably. Strictly speaking, global warming is just one aspect of climate change, and is indeed an important driver of climate change. Apparently small increases in average global temperatures can lead to very large changes in other aspects of local and global climates. Changes in these other aspects of the climate — in averages in precipitation, winds, clouds, humidity, and in temporal and spatial variation and variability — may then have multiple impacts. Since global warming may also be accompanied by local or temporary falls in average temperature, the term climate change is a more accurate description of the problem the world faces.

Source: unit author

Whatever their causes and predictability, spatial and temporal variation pose challenges in measuring climate, as this variation is an important part of the climate. Thus, climate can be described by averages of conditions at different times and places, by frequencies of certain events, by extreme events, and by the extent and nature of variability itself. Ultimately, the parameters and variables used to measure climate and climate change will be determined by understanding what is important about climate – and this varies between people according to their livelihoods, locations, interests, and understandings of climate and its impacts on them.

Climate change impacts

It is now widely accepted that human activities, such as burning fossil fuels for energy, transport and industry, along with forest clearance and livestock keeping, are major contributors to the increase in average global temperatures.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that ‘the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800 000 years. CO2 concentrations have increased by 40% since pre-industrial times, primarily from fossil fuel emissions and secondarily from net land use change emissions’ (IPCC, 2013: p. 7). The IPCC has an extremely high confidence level of 95% probability that global climate change is anthropogenic, caused by excessive greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. At the global scale, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 had increased from a pre-industrial value of approximately 280 parts per million (ppm) to over 400 ppm by 2013 (NOAA, 2013).

The figure in 1.1.2 illustrates the probable scale and scope of problems posed by global warming: apparently small increases in global average temperature (along the x axis) can lead to very large impacts on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and on critical aspects of the lives and welfare of millions of people. According to the IPCC, the global mean surface temperature rose by 0.85°C ± 0.2°C between 1880 and 2012 (IPCC, 2013). (See 1.1.3 for a note on baseline temperatures.) This increase has been particularly significant over the last 50 years.


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1.1.2 The IPCC updated reasons for concern (‘burning embers’) diagram

Source: O’Neill et al (2017)

Often referred to as the ‘burning embers’ diagram, this figure depicts the magnitude of additional global impacts from climate change, relative to the level of warming. White signifies the least, and purple the greatest, impact attributable to climate change. One of the most concerning aspects of this diagram is that serious and dangerous impacts are now projected to be triggered at lower levels of warming, in comparison with the original ‘Reasons for Concern’ diagram, which featured in the Third Assessment Report (IPCC, 2001). Previously, climate modelling anticipated that ‘dangerous’ climate change would occur, broadly, with increased average temperatures of 2°C or above. This diagram (updated first for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and most recently in the paper in Nature Climate Change from which the above figure is taken) suggests that such impacts could be experienced at or even below 1°C of average warming. At the same time, the levels at which GHG emissions have risen in recent decades, have brought us ever closer to the ceiling of the ‘carbon budget’ within which it is thought that we need to stay in order to avoid levels of warming of above 2°C. The corollary of this trend is that staying below 2°C of average warming is believed to require bigger reductions in greenhouse emissions within a shorter time (Anderson & Bows, 2011). In other words, if this analysis is correct, it is decreasingly likely that we will avoid dangerous and very dangerous forms of climate change, given how little we have done so far to reduce GHG emissions, and how insufficiently ambitious current global commitments are to reduce GHG emissions up to 2050 (even after the Paris Accord of 2015, covered later in this unit).

The anticipated global temperature increases in the figure in 1.1.2 are linked to likely impacts on various systems. The expected temperature increases lead to very significant impacts on water supply and availability, on the integrity of ecosystems, on food production, on coastal areas and those living there, and on human health. There will also be ‘singular events’: structural and, in the medium term, irreversible changes in the behaviour of the ocean and climate system with major impacts on the climate.


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These impacts will affect the basic needs of life – food, water, shelter, health – for billions of people and, often, it will be poorer people living in poorer countries who will be the most affected. This raises profound ethical and justice issues, since these people have generally made the lowest contribution to the causes of global climate change (the emission of GHGs), and their lack of resources means that they are the least able to combat the impacts of climate change.

1.1.3 Global warming temperature increases

Discussion of global warming temperature increases can be confusing, as different reports may use different baselines from which increases are measured. The two most commonly used baselines are (a) pre-industrial conditions, with temperature measured from a 30-year average around 1850 and (b) the average over the period 1980 to 1999. The former is the base used in most policy discussions about setting limits on global warming. The latter is the base used in IPCC reports, and this is a little more than 0.5 °C above the pre-industrial base. An increase of 2 °C above the pre-industrial temperature is equivalent to:

— approximately 1.5 °C above the 1980 to 1999 temperature, and

— approximately 1.2 °C above the 2007 average temperature (smoothed to allow for annual variations) since there was an approximate further 0.25 °C temperature increase from 1990 (the 1980—1999 midpoint) to 2007.

Source: unit author with information from Hare (2009) pp. 14—15.

The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, produced in 2007, underestimated both the climate impacts of global temperature increases and the rate of global temperature increases. Richardson et al (2009: p. 8) report that ‘Since 2007, reports comparing the IPCC projections of 1990 with observations show that some climate indicators are changing near the upper end of the range indicated by the projections or, as in the case of sea level rise, at even greater rates than indicated by IPCC projections.’ From a global perspective, the Fifth Assessment Report by the IPCC (2013) reports high increases in heavy precipitation events, while droughts have become more frequent since the 1970s, especially in the (sub)tropics. Changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and increases in tropical cyclone activity since the 1970s have also been documented (IPCC, 2013). The Fifth Assessment Report highlights the observed and partly irreversible changes to the earth’s ecosystems, particularly the changes to the oceans that absorb a large part of the CO2 and thereby become acidified, and changes to the cryosphere (IPCC, 2013).

Given the scale and severity of the impacts identified above, what other natural, social, and political impacts might be expected to result from climate change?

Answer

The answer is complex. We could examine each type of impact set out in the figure in 1.1.2 and ask what secondary effect might these have. Some of these will already be included — such as how declining water availability impacts on irrigated food production, sanitation and health. There are, however, other potential secondary impacts not considered here — if water shortages, coastal flooding and increasingly severe storms make some areas uninhabitable, will


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this lead to large-scale internal and international migration and, if so, what will be the social and political impacts of this in different parts of the world? What will be the impacts of all these changes on terrorist groups and security? A second set of questions arises around the responses to global climate change. If societies implement changes to try to reduce the extent of climate change or to protect themselves against climate change impacts, how will these measures affect different people?

We consider these questions again later in the unit.

1.2 Development challenges

What is development?

While ‘climate change’ is relatively easy to define, this is not the case with the term ‘development’. As with many ‘good’ abstract concepts (such as equity, justice and human rights), most people recognise the existence of development and would probably agree that its achievement is desirable and a good goal for societies to work towards. There is, however, considerable disagreement about just what development means.

We can think about development in terms of two major (and interrelated) dimensions. The first dimension makes a distinction between development goals and development processes. The second dimension distinguishes between the core concerns of development, identified here as economic and human development. This is illustrated in the table in 1.2.1.

1.2.1 Dimensions of development

Processes Goals

Economic development

Economic policies; infrastructural and market development; investment; economic and social structural changes; technical change; efficiency

Improvements in material living standards; income, consumption, employment, savings and investment; food security; income and wealth distribution; poverty reduction, environmental protection

Human or social development

Equitable economic growth; empowerment; governance; change in formal and informal rights and social and economic relations

Capabilities; access to health and education services; rights; equity; freedom, empowerment; particular focus on minority and marginalised groups, on gender relations; security; dignity

Source: unit author

As with many characterisations of development, the distinctions made in the table in 1.2.1 provide some useful insights, but development is too complex to fit into four neat and distinct boxes in a table!

First, the distinction between processes (or means of achieving development) and goals is not rigid. With regard to economic development, some of the goals are necessary parts of the process (investment, for example, is placed in both boxes). The


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interrelationships within economic development processes do not allow neat divisions into cause and effect, process and outcome. The difficulty in separating processes from goals is even greater with human or social development, since here the processes of people becoming conscious of, and working towards, their own and others’ empowerment are themselves seen as a development goal and as an integral part of the development process. Sen (2001) describes ‘development as freedom’, and the internal and external development of capabilities are both goals and means of achieving freedom (to live, to participate in society, to choose, to consume, etc). Indeed, from a human development perspective, the separation of processes from goals may be seen as arising from a particular economic or technical and reductionist view of development. Our understanding of development is often affected by our background – our culture and personal history, as well as our professional education, training and experience.

Second, the distinction between economic and human development is more blurred than may be suggested by the neat boxes in the table. There are, of course, important interactions between economic and human development with regard to both processes and outcomes. These are hinted at by the inclusion of ‘equitable economic growth’ as a human development process. This reflects the need for greater wealth to support investment in education, health and other services. There are, however, questions about the extent to which different kinds of economic growth are inherently more or less efficient in driving increases in income, how those increases in income are distributed and whether they necessarily exclude (even destroy) more traditional or marginalised societies and livelihoods. Questions then arise about ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ from different kinds of development processes, and the contrasts between 'efficiency', 'needs' and 'rights' based development policy approaches (Derbyshire & Locke, 2008).

The destruction of societies, cultures and livelihoods by ‘development’ is often associated with globalisation and with inequities in power relations. Loss of access to or degradation of natural resources is another process that is often associated with ‘development’ (with the destruction of societies, cultures and livelihoods which depend on those resources). Loss of access to natural resources occurs when traditional (generally poor) users do not have formal property rights or the means and power to protect their rights from other more powerful interests. Degradation of resources as a result of pollution or overuse can be analysed in a similar way: the fundamental problem is a lack of protected property rights. Of course, the degradation of resources does not just affect the poor and marginalised (although it affects them most). In the world we live in today (and especially in the context of climate change), it is not possible to discuss development without considering questions about sustainability and sustainable development.

Sustainable development

There are no clear and agreed definitions of sustainability and sustainable development. It is helpful to identify three dimensions of sustainability and hence of sustainable development.

• Environmental sustainability describes the ability of environmental resources to support an activity or set of activities.


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• Economic sustainability describes the ability of an activity or set of activities to yield economic benefits greater than economic costs.

• Social sustainability describes the ability of social structures and/or behaviour to support an activity without being undermined by it.

Pause for a moment and try to think of examples of different activities that are environmentally, economically and socially unsustainable.

Answer

Any system that involves the depletion of an individual’s, an enterprise’s or a society’s environmental, physical, social or financial capital will not be sustainable. Examples include soil erosion, loss of soil nutrients, loss of biodiversity, the running down of investments, and water or air degradation as a result of pollution, if these changes undermine the physical and economic productivity of the system, the gains from the system for critical stakeholders, or social structures on which the system depends. A system that depends upon favourable conditions that are not expected to continue will also not persist: for example, if it depends on low labour, energy or land costs in a situation where the prices for these inputs are expected to rise, or continued access to common resources (for example, grazing or fishing) where these are being reduced by increasing pressure and exploitation. It is important to note here that there are important interactions between environmental, economic and social sustainability: failure in one of these dimensions is often caused by and/or leads to failures in one or both of the other two.

One definition of sustainable development that gained popularity, after the Brundtland report (WCED, 1987) was published, was that it is ‘development which meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs’. Various definitions have emerged since then. Drexhage and Murphy (2010: p. 6) distil three principles that the definitions have in common: that there is a commitment to equity and fairness (prioritising the improvement of conditions of the world’s poorest and including the rights of future generations), employment of the precautionary principle (‘where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation’ (Rio Declaration on Environment and Development, Principle 15 – UN, 1992)) and recognition of the interdependency of the three pillars so that there is ‘integration, and understanding and acting on the complex interconnections that exist between the environment, economy, and society’.

Sustainable Development Goals

Development, then, has many elements, and is difficult to define. It can be viewed in terms of goals and processes, in terms of economic and human development, and in terms of sustainability. There was, however, agreement at the beginning of the 21st century around the idea that poverty is a core development problem, and that poverty reduction should be a common and unifying goal for development activities. This focus on poverty applies particularly to recipient countries of international aid rather than to continuing and/or sustainable development in richer economies. Our main focus in


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examining climate change and development is on the problems of uneven development and poverty in poorer countries, but we also consider a number of lessons and interactions between these and development processes and goals in more wealthy societies.

The growing focus on uneven development and, in particular, poverty in international development has been associated with international agreement at the United Nations on Development Goals being a unifying framework for international development activities. Eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) were agreed in 2000, and in 2015 they were replaced by the more comprehensive Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). For elaboration of the SDGs, see 1.2.2 below.

1.2.2 The Sustainable Development Goals

The Rio+20 summit (2012) mandated the creation of an open working group with representatives from 70 countries to draft a new set of goals. The group presented its final draft to the UN General Assembly in 2014. Member state negotiations followed and 17 SDGs were agreed at the UN Sustainable Development Summit in 2015. They comprise a set of goals, targets and indicators that UN member states are expected to use to frame their development priorities from January 2016 until 2030. Unlike the MDGs, these goals were developed with wider input from the international community and are to apply to every country.

The 17 goals are listed below. Within these, there are 169 targets, too many to list here, but certainly worth reading through. (They are available on many websites or in the UN document noted as the source below.)

Goals:

(1) End poverty in all its forms everywhere

(2) End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture

(3) Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages

(4) Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all

(5) Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls

(6) Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all

(7) Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all

(8) Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment, and decent work for all

(9) Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialisation, and foster innovation

(10) Reduce inequality within and among countries

(11) Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable

(12) Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns

(13) Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts (taking note of agreements made by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) forum)

(14) Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development


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(15) Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification and halt and reverse land degradation, and halt biodiversity loss

(16) Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels

(17) Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalise the global partnership for sustainable development.

Source: UNDP (2015) p. 12.

Despite the difficulties there are in defining development, there is wide agreement that development has made considerable progress since 1990. For example, the fall in the percentage of people living on less than US$1.25 per day and the large increase in numbers of people living on US$1.25 or more per day, and the improvements in other indicators – noting that, with population increases, even a constant percentage achieving some improved development measure represents a large increase in the number of people achieving that measure. However, development has not made enough progress, as is shown, for example, by the very large numbers and percentages of people who remain poor, undernourished, suffering from poor health services, discriminated against, and without improved water or access to modern energy. Note here that, with population increases, a constant percentage failing to achieve some improved development measure represents a large increase in the number of people failing on that measure. There are also major regional differences on many measures, differences which may be obscured by global data. Under the MDG of eradicating extreme poverty and hunger, for example, global reductions in the proportion of people living on less than US$1.25 per day are largely the result of gains in China; gains in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa have been much more limited. Nevertheless, today, most of the world’s poor live in middle-income countries, such as in South Asia, Africa and Latin America. This situation is unacceptable: lack of development is still a pressing global problem.

1.3 Climate change and development interactions

There are two ways in which our separate examinations of climate change and development suggest that the major global challenges of climate change and development interact. First, climate change impacts most heavily on poor and vulnerable people, and is therefore likely to set back development gains made in the past. Second, climate change poses a threat to sustainable development.

Consider how each of the development goals above is likely to be impacted by

climate change. Look back at the figure in 1.1.2 which sets out IPCC estimates of the likely impacts of climate changes associated with increases in global temperature. For each ‘system’ listed (water, ecosystems, food, coast, health, singular events) note down the implications for the SDGs.


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Next consider how the goals, if achieved, might in turn impact climate change (either exacerbating it or mitigating it).

Share your thoughts on both of these tasks with others on the Virtual Learning Environment (VLE) discussion forum, so as to collaboratively build a comprehensive picture.

Climate change clearly has the potential to impact, directly or indirectly, all 17 SDGs. The achievement of some of the goals, such as those related to sustainable consumption and production patterns, and sustainably using marine and terrestrial ecosystems, could result in reduced emissions in comparison with business as usual.

Climate change threats to development progress

A major difficulty in the consideration of climate change impacts on development is the considerable uncertainty about the rate and nature of global warming, about the consequent rate and nature of its effects on different parts of the climate system, and then about the rate and nature of the effects of changes in these climate variables on human and economic development. Such uncertainty means that considerable care needs to be taken in interpreting estimates of climate change impacts on development. However, understanding of the physical, biological and social sciences of climate change impacts is rapidly advancing. The previous estimates of climate change and its impacts have frequently been found to be more conservative than current estimates (see, for example, Richardson et al, 2009), and this suggests that policy and planning should take account of the more serious potential impacts. Hallegatte et al (2016: p. 2) state that ‘climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones’.

Indications of the ways that climate change is already undermining and negating existing development achievements has been documented for some years now, for instance in the ‘Human Impact Report: Climate Change: The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis’ (GHF, 2009). This report recognises the uncertainty and difficulties inherent in quantifying climate change impacts on development and the risks of either overstating or understating these impacts. However, it does attempt to draw together and triangulate across a wide range of information sources, including IPCC and other peer-reviewed and more conservative scientific reports and models, insurance industry information, international organisation reports and case studies. The report estimates that, in 2008/2009, 325 million people were affected annually by climate change, with a further 315 thousand annual deaths due to climate change (these may be compared with annual global estimates of 24 million people needing medical attention after traffic accidents in 2004, 247 million cases of malaria in 2006, 22 thousand deaths from the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2006 and 519 thousand deaths annually from breast cancer from 2004 to 2008) (GHF, 2009: p. 11). These figures are calculated assuming that 40% of increased weather events and 4% of people affected and deaths caused by environmental degradation are attributable to climate change (GHF, 2009: pp. 9, 11). Global economic losses from climate change are estimated at US$125 billion and are projected to more than double from 2010 to 2030 (GHF, 2009: pp. 19, 20). Critical


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human impacts of climate change arise through impacts on human habitat, food security, health, poverty, water scarcity, displacement and security. The links are set out in the figure in 1.3.1, an animated version of which is available on your e-study guide.

1.3.1 The links from increased GHG emissions to human impacts

Source: Dalberg analysis, in GHF (2009) p. 23.

It seems likely that climate change will make the achievement of the SDGs very difficult. Wright et al (2015) state that:

‘Climate change will significantly hamper LDCs’ [least developed countries] ability to achieve the SDGs on poverty, hunger, health, water, growth, infrastructure, cities, marine resources and ecosystems. It may also decrease LDCs’ ability to meet goals on education, gender, energy, inequality, sustainable consumption and production, peace, and implementation. And extreme climate change will make combatting climate change itself more difficult. Climate impacts are also very likely to increase the cost of meeting all SDGs in LDCs, especially under high-emission scenarios.’

Source: Wright et al (2015) p. 4.

The table in 1.3.2 outlines impacts that climate change may have on achieving the targets of the SDGs.


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1.3.2 Impacts that climate change may have on achievement of the SDGs

Sustainable development goal Climate change impacts on achieving the SDG (Evidence predominantly from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report)

(1) End poverty in all its forms everywhere

Climate change and climate variability worsen existing poverty, exacerbate inequalities, and trigger both new vulnerabilities and some opportunities. There is robust evidence that these hazards act as a threat multiplier for poor people, meaning climate change represents a huge additional barrier to poverty eradication.

(2) End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture

All dimensions of food security — availability, access, utilisation and stability — are vulnerable to climate change. Climate change may lead to 170 million more undernourished people in 2080. Crops already near their maximum heat tolerance are particularly vulnerable. Losses to genetic diversity are projected.

(3) Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages

In Africa, the IPCC states that children and pregnant women are particularly vulnerable to climate-related health risks. There is medium confidence about the increasing risk of water-borne diseases and water pollution. Extreme events can also affect mental health. Extreme events and climate-sensitive diseases pose occupational risks to health workers. Health costs could rise.

(4) Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all

Education facilities could be vulnerable to climate-related disasters. Extreme events, droughts and floods can result in children being taken out of school.

(5) Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls

There are significant gender dimensions to climate change. Statistical evidence from 141 countries in 1981—2002 shows disasters kill women at an earlier age than men. Migration impacts are often gender specific. Climate change also threatens equal access to resources.

(6) Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all

Many climate impacts are water-related, including increased floods and droughts. Sanitation and water quality are both threatened as storm run-off adds to sewage. Adapting water infrastructure is often costly. Water-related ecosystems, including mountains and forests, are vulnerable. In future decades, glacier shrinkage will threaten water supplies.

(7) Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all

Renewable energy could provide energy access for billions of people and cut emissions. But if energy access is met through fossil fuels, this could exacerbate climate change and cause ‘maladaptation’. Hydropower and bioenergy are both vulnerable to climate-induced changes in water availability. All types of energy infrastructure are vulnerable to extreme events.

(8) Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment, and decent work for all

Target 8.1 aims at sustaining gross domestic product (GDP) growth in LDCs above 7% per year. However, climate-related hazards impact GDP. The IPCC cites high confidence that coral reef degradation will negatively impact island communities and livelihoods, including tourism. Storm damage and sea-level rise can impact GDP. Dehydration and heat exhaustion undermine people’s ability to carry out physical work, threatening safe working environments and reducing economic output in affected sectors.

(9) Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialisation, and foster innovation

Climate change can impact infrastructure, including energy, water, transport and health. The IPCC provides robust evidence of impacts on water-supply infrastructure, and high agreement about negative impacts on transport infrastructure. Without sustainable infrastructure policies, there is also a risk of becoming locked-in to high-carbon infrastructure.


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(10) Reduce inequality within and among countries

The IPCC highlights robust evidence that the socially and economically disadvantaged are disproportionately affected by climate impacts, because they often have the weakest buffer to climate hazards. This may jeopardise efforts to tackle inequality. Efforts to promote safe migration could be affected.

(11) Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable

The IPCC highlights very high confidence that urban climate change-related risks are increasing. Extreme events (leading to floods and mudslides, for example) damage housing and particularly affect informal structures, threatening safe housing. Floods and storms can destroy cultural and natural heritage with intangible value. Planning towards disaster resilience will be more difficult with increased frequency and intensity of disasters.

(12) Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns

Rising temperatures may threaten efforts to reduce food losses, including post-harvest losses, as changes in temperature can result in geographical shifts of pests and diseases.

(13) Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts

Target 13.1 aims to strengthen resilience to climate-related hazards. However, limits to adaptation include lack of resources, information and physiological limits. Some authors suggest meeting the SDGs will require additional investments of US$2—3 trillion. As adaptation is far more difficult under high-emission scenarios, these costs could increase. The ‘adaptation gap’ is part of a broader development gap, and delaying climate action will increase these deficits.

(14) Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development

Marine species composition is changing as the oceans warm. Of the 33 countries with fisheries classified as highly vulnerable. 19 are LDCs. Subsistence and economic benefits to LDCs from marine resources are threatened. Carbon dioxide uptake is increasing the ocean’s acidity, thereby threatening shellfish and reefs.

(15) Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification and halt and reverse land degradation, and halt biodiversity loss

There is high confidence that climate change exacerbates other impacts of biodiversity. Tree species are vulnerable to drought- and fire-induced mortality during dry periods. River deltas and wetlands are vulnerable to rising sea levels, while glacier melt may affect mountainous regions. Efforts to halt biodiversity loss are threatened. An estimated 20—30%of assessed plant and animal species are at increased risk of extinction with 2—3 °C warming.

(16) Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels

The IPCC cites medium evidence that some risk factors for increased violence within states are climate sensitive. Heatwaves are associated with increasing violence, and transboundary climate impacts, including shared water resources, can increase state rivalry.

(17) Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalise the global partnership for sustainable development

Climate change will increase the financial resources and capacity building required for LDCs to achieve the SDGs, in a context of increasing competition for such resources.

Source: compiled (and slightly modified) from Wright et al (2015)


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Given the uncertainties about climate change and its impacts, and the very

nature of climate change in increasing weather variability, it is immensely difficult to quantify historical, current or future human impacts of climate change. The Economist (2009) comments that ‘the trend looks plausible, but there seems little basis for the exact numbers’ regarding the Global Humanitarian Forum estimate that 40% of increased weather-related disasters can be attributed to climate change. Most statements in the table in 1.3.2 are not quantified. What is the value of information like this, and what are its dangers?

You might like to post your comment on this on the VLE discussion forum for this module for discussion, and if you are interested you could also read more of the Global Humanitarian Forum report ‘Human Impact Report: Climate Change: The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis’ (GHF, 2009).

It is difficult to determine with any precision the current or future impacts of climate change on development. It is clear, however, that the scale of impacts is likely to be large, and that there will be many negative impacts to which poor people are particularly vulnerable. Climate change is therefore likely to set back many of the development gains made in the past. Climate change makes development all the more urgent and important if development can help build resilience to climate change impacts and the adaptive capacity for poor and vulnerable people. Similarly, the potential seriousness of climate change impacts on poor people, and its likely negative impact on development processes and goals, make tacking climate change all the more urgent.

Climate change threats to sustainable development

Climate change represents a fundamental threat to current patterns of development, as it is clear that development which involves large-scale emissions of GHGs is not sustainable. The climate system does not have the capacity to absorb large amounts of GHGs without substantial changes in the climate, changes which undermine global natural and economic systems on which we currently depend. These include our water supplies, food systems, health, infrastructure and settlements. Understanding these threats requires an understanding of the science of climate change, impacts of different human activities on climate change and impacts of climate change on human activities and welfare. Major areas of human activity and welfare to consider here are agriculture, energy generation, transport, industry, settlement, water supplies, health, food supplies, lifestyles and vulnerabilities, and responses to disasters.

A consideration of the implications of climate science and the impacts for sustainable development needs to be set in the context of a broader understanding of the nature of climate change and development problems. We consider this in the next section.


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Section 1 Self-Assessment Questions

1 Match the correct description.

(a) climate

(b) weather

(i) actual specific atmosphere behaviour or events such as storms, cold periods

(days, nights)

(ii) patterns of behaviour of the atmosphere, expected conditions

2 Fill in the gaps in the following table using the words in the word bank below. Note that a word may correctly find a home in more than one place in the table.

Dimensions of development

_______ _______

_______ development

Economic policies; infrastructural and market development; investment; economic and social structural changes; _______; efficiency

improvements in material living standards; _______, consumption, employment, savings and investment; ________; income and wealth distribution; poverty reduction

________ or social development

Equitable economic growth; ________; governance; change in formal and informal rights and social & economic relations;

_______; access to health and education services; rights; equity; _______, _______; particular focus on minority and marginalised groups, on gender relations; security; dignity

processes, goals, human, economic, freedom, empowerment, technical change, income, food security, capabilities

3 List as many of the effects of climate change (both direct and indirect) that you can think of, and then list the impacts of these on people.


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2.0 SHORT HISTORIES OF DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE

CHANGE POLICIES

Section Overview

Climate change and underdevelopment are both global and national problems that are the focus of major research endeavours and of global and national policies, investments and other interventions. In this section, we briefly review the history of development and of climate change as recognised problems requiring understanding and action.

Section Learning Outcomes

By the end of this section, students should be able to:

• describe the broad history of national and international attempts to promote development

• describe the broad history of the threat of climate change as a global and national problem, and of national and international attempts to respond to this threat.

2.1 A brief history of development policy

In its most general sense, development is a process that has gone on throughout human history as individuals and societies have attempted to better themselves. In Europe, concerted efforts to improve the conditions of disadvantaged sectors in society began in the 19th and early 20th centuries often spearheaded by religious or socialist groups. Such efforts were accompanied by the study of disadvantage, and eventually led, inter alia, to legislation and the establishment of government departments concerned with improving or protecting social welfare. However, ‘development’ as a major government activity and field of endeavour extending beyond national borders emerged only after the Second World War, as a result of the need to rebuild the war-torn countries in Europe. European, US and international organisations involved in reconstruction in Europe then turned their attention to the problems faced by countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. As these countries began to gain their independence, people and governments in former colonial countries recognised that they had both obligations and opportunities to raise economic activities and living standards in their former colonies.

Development rapidly became mixed up with the Cold War, as international development assistance was seen as an extension of foreign policy, and the capitalist West (United States, Canada, Europe and Australasia) competed with the socialist East (Soviet Union, Eastern Europe and China) to attract and keep Asian, African and Latin American countries within their spheres of influence and trade. Understandings of ‘development’ changed, and became increasingly contested, with different theorists, Northern and Southern governments, international agencies and others, putting different emphases on political, social, economic and technological change as the key constraints to and drivers of change. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War led to, and coincided with, important changes in the practice and theory of


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2.1.1 Major streams of development theory and practice in the 20th century

Stream Origins Characteristics Definition of development Classical (liberal) economic theory

Late 18th and early 19th century response to ‘protectionist economics’ spearheaded by Adam Smith, Jean-Baptiste Say, John Stuart Mill and others.

Opposes state interference in markets, which should be self-regulating; promotes idea of organising society around the individual pursuit of monetary gain.

Economic growth

Classical Marxism Rooted in critiques of classical economics offered by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels.

Critique of capitalism as inequitable and ultimately self-destructive, favouring transfer of ownership of means of production to state, used in favour of working classes.

Economic growth, industrialisation, urbanisation, increased societal complexity

Modernisation Experience of post-war reconstruction in Europe; stages of growth and structural change theories.

Emphasises importance of investment and technical change, increasing industrialisation. Different capitalist and socialist models — 1950s, 1960s and 1970s.

Economic growth and increased complexity in social and economic organisation

Dependency Failures of modernisation policies to generate growth and poverty reduction; Marxist and Neo-Marxist theories and their application in Latin America.

Emphasises unequal power relations between rich and poor economies and development as a perpetuation of such relations for the benefits of the powerful.

Economic growth

Sustainable development

Growing concern, post-Second World War, with environmental impacts of economic development; popular environmental movements; 1972 UN Conference on Human Environment; Rio 1992 and 2012.

Focus on reconciling development with environmental limits, specified radically differently (ie from techno-optimist ‘weak’ sustainability to deep-green ecology ‘strong’ sustainability).

Economic growth within environmental limits, meeting the needs of current and future generations

Neoliberalism Apparent failures of government-led modernisation investments; 1970s debt crisis and subsequent fiscal crises in developing countries. Reaganism in the United States and Thatcherism in the UK.

Emphasises the importance of free markets (national and international), private property and reducing state size and power, and advocating for more state functions and services to be provided by private actors, as a means for individual prosperity.

Economic growth fuelled by free trade, liberal democracy

Source: unit authors, supplemented by Willis (2011)


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international development, which has since largely been dominated by the West. There have, however, been continuing alternative currents, notably in some Latin American countries, such as Venezuela, Cuba and Bolivia, in some non-governmental organisations (NGOs), and anti-globalisation and environmental movements in the West, and most recently in the emergence of China as a major investor and economic player in Africa.

Theory and practice in international development are closely, but not simply, related. It is possible to identify different streams of development theory that have emerged over time. These have influenced and been influenced by development policies of governments in developed and developing countries, by international or multilateral development agencies (such as the World Bank and different UN agencies) and by NGOs. Interactions between theory and practice and among different organisations are complex and varied. Dominant practices of donor governments and international agencies are influenced by dominant theories, but they also support the development of dominant theories as they fund research and practice in line with dominant theory. However, failures of dominant practice throw up questions about the theories on which they are based, questions which are often explored and championed by NGOs, by alternative movements and by alternative streams of academic research, writing and teaching. Development theory and practice are also affected by the domestic interests of donor governments, and by wider economic and social ideologies in donor countries.

The main streams of development theory and practice that emerged in the 20th century are very briefly summarised in the table in 2.1.1. While in some ways they contrast and conflict sharply, there is much overlap between them.

Cutting across and within these streams were other approaches to development, which included the:

• basic needs approach, which stressed the importance of investments to provide people with secure access to food, shelter, water and education and health services, often through community-based organisation

• environmental and natural resource management approaches, which stressed the importance of natural resources in development and the threats posed by changing access to and productivity of natural resources

• gender approaches, which stressed the different situations and roles of women and men in societies and in development processes

• the sustainable livelihoods approach, which stressed the need for holistic and people-centred analysis and action

• participatory and empowerment approaches, with greater involvement of poor people in the definition and analysis of problems and priorities, and in action

• poverty reduction approach, which came to be enshrined in the MDGs articulated and set out as the overarching focus for all international development efforts at the end of the 20th century.

This list is by no means exhaustive.

Many of these approaches continue, and some are dominant parts of current development interventions. Other major themes and debates concern:


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• globalisation, its threats and opportunities

• public–private partnerships, with varied but more nuanced understandings of the complementary roles of governments, the private sector and markets in development

• rights-based approaches, which emphasise legislation of people’s rights to employment, food and other basic needs

• the particular problems of poverty, human rights and development in ‘fragile states’ (countries where the government is particularly weak) and countries in conflict.

There are also continuing debates about, and changing emphases between, policies and investments for rural and for urban populations; for environmental threats; for agriculture, services and manufacturing as productive drivers of growth in different contexts; for welfare services (such as education and health); and for social protection (the provision of safety nets such as food aid, cash or food transfers, and pensions). These reflect growing dissatisfaction with more fundamental neoliberal policies, as well as reactions to changing global and developing country situations – with the rapid economic growth and power of India, Brazil, South Africa, Russia and China the global commodity price spike of 2008; the subsequent financial crisis and recession; continuing global population growth and urbanisation; and increasing realisation of the severity and urgency of climate change threats. Many of these emerging problems draw attention to the importance of the political economy (the interplay between economics, politics and law) and processes of policy formulation and implementation and to co-ordination problems as a key development constraint.

Across all of the approaches and underlying theories of development considered here, the common denominator is economic growth. Everyone from classical proponents of free trade, such as Adam Smith, to their critics, such as Karl Marx, acknowledge the centrality of its importance (as the table in 2.1.1 attests). Even the history of sustainable development can be read as one of trying to reorient growth-focused development policy and discourse towards at least a minimal consideration of environmental externalities. It is, furthermore, no coincidence that the theory of ‘degrowth’ (which we shall come to very shortly) is, by definition, an alternative development paradigm. Yet, in spite of the widespread acceptance of the concept of sustainable development (and its partial replacement with resilience), the prioritisation of economic growth, under the guiding rationale of neoliberal policy prescriptions, remains intact. Most governments around the world, nevertheless, appear to proceed upon the basis that it is wholly possible to reconcile the pursuit of economic growth with the prerequisites of environmental sustainability. Development discourses are more wide ranging, but the predominant ones, espoused by international aid agencies and powerful countries in both the ‘global North’ and ‘global South’, tend to take the pursuit of economic growth given and non-negotiable, even in the face of a problem like climate change. It is precisely the fact that predominant framings of sustainable development reconciled themselves with, rather than sought to dislodge, the pre-eminence of economic growth that led Herman Daly to brand sustainable development an oxymoron (cited in Redclift, 2005). Efforts towards economic growth, pursued within the frameworks and mechanisms of global neoliberal capitalism, continue to be fundamentally implicated in the production of the GHG emissions that drive climate change. Whether this objective is reconcilable with the changes required to avoid dangerous climate change, or whether it will be necessary to


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dispense with the quest for endless economic growth, continues to be an open question in the early decades of the 21st century; at least in the wide-ranging literature on the topic.

This question is not just at the heart of debates about how meaningful the notion of ‘sustainable development’ is. It also serves as an entry point to understanding divergent positions associated with a more recent term, ‘green economy’, which gained traction at the Rio +20 Earth Summit in 2012. Faccer et al (2014) identify three stylised, overlapping positions taken by green economy commentators.

• Incrementalist – broadly accepting of the predominant economic system, with corrective, market-based discourses and ‘green growth’ which minimises or eliminates current environmental problems.

• Reformist – seek to refocus the economy to deliver equity and well-being benefits, but argue that a green economy is in fact capable of generating more growth, if properly reformed and restructured, than the current ‘brown economy’. This is broadly the position espoused by the most prominent reformist commentator, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP, 2011).

• Transformative – call for a fundamental reorganisation of society and economy not based on economic growth. Examples of transformative perspectives are the ‘steady-state’ economics of Herman Daly (2010) – whereby economic benefits grow, but not the environmental ‘footprint’ of the economy – and the ‘prosperity without growth’ thesis offered by Tim Jackson (2009). Perhaps most radically of all, ‘degrowth’ is both an intellectual and a social movement which offers an explicitly anti-capitalist critique of the ‘overconsumption’ which is held to lie at the root of environmental problems and social inequality (cf Kallis, 2011). The degrowth movement precedes the term ‘green economy’ and its proponents might not themselves wish to be associated with it! Clearly, however, their ideas are relevant to efforts to understand what a green economy could look like.

Green economy has also been critiqued, particularly from the standpoint of political ecology and economy. Newell and Mulvaney (2013) suggest that even if growth can be made green, there may be winners as well as losers, such as coal miners in South Africa, who could lose out under a move to renewable energy provision. Lander (2011) argues that current political regimes are unwilling or unable to regulate or restrict free markets, and therefore unlikely to engender transition. Making a similar point, Wanner (2015), drawing on the works of Antonio Gramsci and Karl Polanyi, maintains that the dominant framings of green economy and green growth are already embedded in neoliberal capitalism. Rather than resolving the internal contradiction posed by the pursuit of ever higher levels of growth based on the commodification of nature, these discourses serve as a means of co-opting and neutralising challenges to the entrenched interests of neoliberal capitalism.

Ultimately, this discussion serves to highlight that an appreciation of the enduring resilience of the appeal of economic growth as the object of development is essential when attempting to understand: (a) the genesis of international negotiations on responding to climate change; and (b) the resistance encountered to the proposals tabled on what that response should look like. It is to the history of these negotiations to which we now turn our attention.


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2.2 A brief history of climate change policy

Awareness of climate change as an issue facing humans, and action to address it, are not as recent as we might think. For instance, suggestions of climate change caused by humans were being voiced in the times of Classical Greece (Hughes, 1985); albeit not on a global scale. What is newer, relatively speaking, is a preoccupation with the scale at which human activity has environmental consequences and, in particular, with the global magnitude of anthropogenic climate change, and a more thorough understanding of the atmospheric physics behind it. The importance of the atmosphere in maintaining the temperature at the surface of the earth, the role in this of absorption of solar radiation by carbon dioxide and methane, and the potential for global temperature increases as a result of industrial activities releasing carbon dioxide were first identified by Fourier, Tyndale and Arrhenius in 1827, 1859, and 1896, respectively, in France, Britain and Sweden. It was not until the late 1970s, however, that the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) began to express concern that human activities – notably the emission of carbon dioxide – might lead to serious warming of the lower atmosphere. Scientific concerns about global warming grew during the 1980s and, in 1988 (a year when North America faced an intense heat wave and drought), these spilled over into political concerns. As a result the WMO and UNEP established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to investigate and report on scientific evidence on and possible international responses to climate change.

The IPCC has been central to the subsequent debates and processes around the development of climate change policies. Its first assessment report (in 1990) fed into the drafting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1991. This was signed by 166 nations at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 and came into force in 1994. The UNFCCC did not contain any specific national or international targets to reduce GHG emissions, but it contained key points or principles that have been foundational in subsequent international climate change debates and processes. It set out the following:

• an objective of stabilising the climate to prevent ‘dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’ in a time frame that would allow natural systems to adapt without major damage to food systems and economic development

• the need for countries to monitor and limit their GHG emissions and for different national limits, taking account of countries’ different responsibilities and capacities

• particular concerns for developing countries – and especially those most vulnerable to damaging climate change impacts, such as small island states

• the importance of precautionary measures to respond to the severity of climate change threats, despite real scientific uncertainties regarding climate change processes and impacts.

In the absence of specific targets, the UNFCCC fell short of the aspirations of many environmentalists. However, it was an important step in establishing foundational principles to guide subsequent negotiations over national reductions in GHG emissions. These culminated in a Conference of Parties (COP) meeting in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997.


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This was the third Conference of Parties meeting (COP 3) where delegates agreed what is known as the Kyoto Protocol. This established developed country emissions targets for 2008–2012 and three main mechanisms for meeting them:

• an emissions trading scheme, which allowed international trade in emission allowances

• the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), which allowed developed country signatories emission credits for investing in emissions savings in developing countries; the only Kyoto mechanism that allowed for investment in developing countries

• joint implementation, which allowed emission saving investments in other industrial (Annex 1) countries, including emerging economy countries, to be credited to signatory developed countries, promoting more cost-effective emission saving than could otherwise be achieved.

However, a number of countries (notably the United States and Australia) subsequently refused to ratify the Kyoto agreement, arguing that developing countries also needed to limit their emissions. These arguments were supported by major public debates questioning the scientific basis for climate change predictions – with substantial investments by the oil industry, in particular, in lobbying groups questioning or denying climate change.

By 2009 the existence and dangers of climate change were increasingly being recognised with:

• growing scientific evidence and understanding of climate change and its impacts, and increasing representation of this in the press; the publication of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 played a critical role in this (the Fifth Assessment Report published in 2013/2014 further contributed to an improved understanding of the impacts and drivers of climate change and reiterated the extremely high confidence level that climate change was anthropogenic)

• public awareness and concern about unusual weather patterns (for example, the extreme heat of the 2003 European summer; Hurricane Katrina and other storms around the world; floods, droughts and fires in Europe, the United States and Australia)

• political change (notably the US Administration and in Australia).

National governments face major difficulties agreeing national contributions to international reductions in global emissions of GHGs. On the one hand, there is widespread recognition that drastic emissions reductions are needed, but on the other:

• governments (and most importantly their electorates) do not want to bear the costs of such reductions in terms of increased energy costs, investments in new technologies and infrastructure, and lifestyle changes

• there are fears that countries with higher emission allowances will benefit from competitive advantages in international trade, while countries with lower emission allowances will suffer disadvantages and hence suffer economically

• rich (developed) countries with high emissions per capita face very large economic and social adjustment costs if they are to make substantial reductions in their emissions


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• poor (developing) countries have lower current emissions per capita, but do not want either to be denied opportunities for economic growth and increased standards of living associated with increasing emissions, or to be forced down a more costly and slower development path constrained by keeping down GHG emissions

• poor (developing) countries need large financial and other resources to enable them to adapt to and cope with climate change impacts; in this, they are looking to richer (developed) countries to provide a substantial part of these resources, as richer countries are better able to provide the necessary finance, and are primarily responsible for the GHGs causing climate change.

Differences in countries’ perceptions were sharpened by the awareness in developing countries that developed countries continue to be the major greenhouse emitters, currently benefit from and are trying to defend high levels of emissions per person and are least vulnerable to climate change impacts. Developed countries, on the other hand, see per capita and total emissions rising fastest in rapidly growing, large developing countries – most notably China – and argue that this growth must be limited if global emissions are to be contained.

Despite the widespread agreement now reached about the seriousness of climate change, deep divisions remain between countries with regard to the appropriate distribution of GHG emission limits and reductions. These are rooted in divergent national interests and perceptions, and strongly linked to issues of ethics, justice and development.

Complex technical and political challenges continue in:

• developing principles to guide agreement on just and acceptable national emission targets

• agreeing such targets

• designing, agreeing, implementing and monitoring mechanisms for achieving them

• key issues related to financing adaptation and mitigation in poor countries, and access to low-emissions technology for poor countries.

These challenges posed major problems at the annual UNFCCC meetings, known as COPs. This was particularly so at the COPs between 2009 and 2013 in Copenhagen, Cancún, Durban, Doha and Warsaw, where negotiations were ongoing to establish a legally binding treaty for post-2012, after the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. While Copenhagen was a major debacle, Cancún resulted in the Cancún Agreements which paved the way for a number of important arrangements, including the Green Climate Fund, the Technology Mechanism, the Cancún Adaptation Framework and Forest Management Reference Levels. After Cancún, many had hoped that Durban would deliver an agreement for the post-2012 phase. However, it was not possible to agree on key issues – such as binding emission reduction targets – and, disappointingly, the decision was taken that any global legally binding treaty for emission reductions would be negotiated by 2015 and come into effect by 2020. The Durban Platform for Enhanced Action was established to enable negotiations for a new global agreement for implementation in 2020. This delay of global action from 2012 to 2020 was criticised by NGOs, scientists and some governments, as it delayed global


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action to tackle climate change by almost a decade. The second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol started in 2013 and continues until 2020, but emission reductions are only required from developed countries that signed up to it, thereby excluding major emitters such as the United States, Russia and Japan, and emerging emitters, such as China and India. A new global agreement, starting in 2020, is therefore crucial to tackle global climate change. It was agreed in Warsaw in 2013 that this new global agreement would need to be negotiated by 2015, and preparations for it were made at the Lima COP in 2014.

The Paris COP in 2015 resulted in the approval of the Paris Agreement that would start from 2020. This was a new global deal that aimed to reduce the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C (or even 1.5 °C) above pre-industrial levels by the end of the 21st century. It was a huge achievement to have agreement from all 196 countries after 20 years of negotiation. There was scepticism, however, as to whether it was possible to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C or even 2 °C, given that (a) emissions were already above 400ppm, (b) many of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions were not projected to be sufficient, and (c) there was a heavy reliance on unproven technological fixes. The Paris Agreement was ratified ahead of schedule and entered into force just before the Marrakech COP in 2016. In the Marrakech Action Proclamation, parties affirmed their commitment to the full implementation of the Paris Agreement.


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Section 2 Self-Assessment Questions

4 Fill in the missing words/phrases from the pool below.

basic needs

climate change threats

co-ordination

dissatisfaction with neoliberalism

globalisation

neoliberalism

population growth and urbanisation

roles of agriculture, services, and manufacturing

social protection

sustainable livelihoods

classical (liberal) economic theory

classical Marxism

sustainable development

Changing development practice and concerns from the mid-20th century

Main streams of development theory and policy in the 20th century

Modernisation, Dependency, _______, _______, _______, _______

Other approaches to development in the 20th century

_______, environmental and natural resource management, gender, _______, participation and empowerment, microfinance, pro-poor growth and poverty reduction

Other major themes and debates _______, public private partnerships, rights-based approaches, _______, fragile states and countries in conflict

Current/emerging issues/debates rural versus urban investments, _______; importance of welfare services, _______, political economy and processes of policy formulation and implementation, _______

Changing conditions/opportunities/threats/lessons

rapid growth of BRICS, 2008 global commodity price spike, 2009 financial crisis and recession, _______, _______


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5 Arrange the following in date order, matching the dates.

• Agreement on the UNFCCC at the Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit • Concerns about warming of the atmosphere • COP 15 meeting to agree emissions targets after the expiry of the Kyoto Protocol

agreements • Discovery of the importance of the atmosphere in maintaining the temperature

at the surface of the earth • Discovery of the potential for global temperature increases as a result of

industrial activities releasing carbon dioxide • Discovery of the role of carbon dioxide and methane in absorbing solar

radiation • Approval of the Paris Agreement • Effective start of the Kyoto Protocol emissions targets • Year in which the new global climate agreement will start • Expiry of the Kyoto Protocol emissions targets agreements – first commitment

period • Publication of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report • Publication of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report • Third Conference of Parties meeting (COP 3) agreement on the Kyoto Protocol • WMO and the UNEP established the International Panel on Climate Change

Date Event

1827 1859 1896

Late 1970s 1988

1992 1997 2007

2008 2009

2012 2013/2014

2015 2020

6 List four key points or principles in the UNFCCC that have been foundational in subsequent international climate change debates and processes.


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UNIT SUMMARY

This unit has provided an introduction to the interactions between climate change and development and the potential for very serious impacts of climate change on development and poor people. It has also flagged the likelihood that we will not avoid the sorts of climate change that are of greatest import to people living in conditions of poverty, precarity and marginalisation. Unfortunately, there are also very serious challenges to policies promoting mitigation and some forms of adaptation. Many of these are linked to the overwhelming prioritisation of economic growth over other considerations, even when this growth is implicated in generating inequality and environmental problems. The idea of maintaining and increasing growth is enshrined in every mainstream development paradigm, and even in the more recent notion(s) of the green economy, much debate is focussed on making growth greener, rather than exploring alternative understandings of terms like development, well-being and prosperity. The level and type of global commitment to tackling climate change demonstrated in the Paris Agreement of 2015 reflects this continued growth prioritisation. Ultimately, until it is clear that the generation of economic growth can and will be pursued in ways which bring global greenhouse gas emissions down quickly enough to avoid ‘dangerous’ climate change, the question of whether our development model can become the solution, rather than the problem, will remain open.


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UNIT SELF-ASSESSMENT QUESTIONS

1 Section 1 discusses threats of climate change to development. From your reading of the unit as a whole, what are the threats that development poses to addressing climate change?

2 List the features of climate change and of climate change impacts that make it so difficult to address.

3 There is continued uncertainty about climate change processes and impacts due to our lack of understanding about them. How does this affect responses to climate change and what are the implications for professionals working on issues related to climate change?


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KEY TERMS AND CONCEPTS

adaptation The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In some natural systems, human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects (IPCC, 2014).

basic needs An approach to development which stresses the importance of investments to provide people with secure access to food, shelter, water, and education and health services, often through community-based organisation.

dependency Theory of development (or underdevelopment) that emphasises the role of unequal power relations between rich and poor economies in development processes, and the perpetuation of these unequal power relations to the benefit of rich economies.

global warming

An increase in the average annual global temperature at the earth’s surface.

green economy

An economy which ‘results in improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities’ (UNEP, 2011: p.16).

green growth Economic growth which is taken to be environmentally sustainable (World Bank, 2012).

greenhouse gases Gases that, when they occur in the atmosphere, inhibit the radiation of heat from the earth out of the atmosphere, and thus trap heat in the atmosphere.

livelihood A means of living; the capabilities, assets and activities required for living; how people use what they have to meet their needs and work towards their life objectives.

microfinance A system of providing financial services to poorer people who save and borrow very small amounts. Microfinance systems generally use a combination of particular methods to lower transaction costs. These may include organisation of clients into groups, group liability, regular savings and repayments by group members and access to loans on a rotational basis.

mitigation A human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of GHGs (IPCC, 2014).

modernisation Theory of development that posits a sequential growth process involving investment, technical change and increasing industrialisation.

Neoliberalism An ideology of economic liberalism that emphasises the role of the private sector and markets (as against the role of the state) both in encouraging individuals to exercise freedom in the pursuit of their goals and in promoting economic efficiency in the attainment of those goals.

political economy The way that politics and economics interact. In particular, how those with political power may influence economic systems (and vice versa), such that political behaviour and economic structures and processes need to be considered together.

public—private partnerships

Formal arrangements where the state contracts with private companies to provide certain services on behalf of the state. These arrangements are intended to allow the state to call on extra resources available to private companies (including finance and expertise) and/or allow more efficient provision of services by private sector organisations.


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rights-based approaches

Approaches to development where access to basic needs and services are seen as a human right, and the state has a duty to ensure that rights are met.

social protection A stream of development that emphasises the provision of resources and services to protect and promote the welfare of poorer and more vulnerable members of society.

sustainable livelihoods

An approach to development that emphasises development of people's livelihoods in ways that are sustainable and reflect and build on people's own aspirations and understandings of their resources, activities, vulnerabilities, opportunities and constraints.

uncertainty An expression of the degree to which a value is unknown (eg the future state of the climate system). Uncertainty can result from a lack of information or from a disagreement about what is known or even knowable. It may have many types of sources, from quantifiable errors in the data to ambiguously defined concepts or terminology, or uncertain projections of human behaviour. Uncertainty can therefore be represented by quantitative measures (eg a range of values calculated by various models) or by qualitative statements (eg reflecting the judgement of a team of experts) (Verbruggen, 2007: p. 821).

vulnerability Susceptibility to harm as a result of both exposure and sensitivity to potentially damaging shocks and stresses.


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FURTHER STUDY MATERIALS

Dorward, A.R. (2009) Integrating Contested Aspirations, Processes and Policy: Development as Hanging In, Stepping Up and Stepping Out.

The audio file and/or PowerPoint of presentation at the University of Reading, January 2009, is available on your e-study guide.

Drexhage, J. & Murphy, D. (2010) Sustainable Development: From Brundtland to Rio 2012. New York, United Nations. pp. 6–20.

Available from: http://www.surdurulebilirkalkinma.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Background_on_Sustainable_Development.pdf

The paper, prepared as background for the work of the United Nations Secretary-General’s High-level Panel on Global Sustainability, assesses the evolution in the thinking and practice on sustainable development. The paper first reviews the origins of sustainable development, and then looks at progress on sustainable development in the 20-plus years since the Brundtland report up to the Rio+20 Summit. This is followed by an analysis of why headway on sustainable development has been less than expected; and the concluding section provides thoughts on moving forward.

Flavin, C. & Engelman, R. (2009) The perfect storm. In: Worldwatch Institute 2009 State of the World: Into a Warming World. London UK, Earthscan. pp. 9–11.

Available from: http://www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/SOW09_chap1.pdf

This reading, written at the close of 2008, presents 10 key challenges ‘to create the world of zero net greenhouse gas emissions that will be needed to achieve climate stability’.

― From a different perspective now, with limited progress on global climate change policy since then, do you think each of these challenges is (i) necessary and (ii) achievable?

― Looking across the 10 key challenges and considering them together, what strikes you about the challenges they pose as a whole?

Global Humanitarian Forum (2009) Human Impact Report: Climate Change - The Anatomy of A Silent Crisis [Video]. Geneva, Global Humanitarian Forum. Duration 4:06 minutes.

Available from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnVGzlXmgko

A video news item about the release of the report, highlighting key findings, and thereby providing a brief overview of some of the figures related to climate change and development.

http://www.surdurulebilirkalkinma.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Background_on_Sustainable_Development.pdf

http://www.surdurulebilirkalkinma.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Background_on_Sustainable_Development.pdf

http://www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/SOW09_chap1.pdf

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnVGzlXmgko


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GHF. (2009) Human Impact Report: Climate Change: The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis. Geneva, Global Humanitarian Forum (GHF).

Available from: http://www.eird.org/publicaciones/humanimpactreport.pdf

This report provides estimates of the human impacts of climate change — the numbers of people affected, deaths, impacts on critical resources and on the MDGs. There is also an extensive bibliography in the end notes.

Gore, A. (2007) An Inconvenient Truth: Trailer. [Video]. Duration 2:30 minutes.

Available from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnjx6KETmi4

Former US vice president Al Gore produced the documentary film ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ in 2006 to raise awareness. The film won many awards, and Al Gore, along with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, won the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for his wide-reaching efforts to draw the world’s attention to the dangers of climate change.

Gore, A. (2017) An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power Trailer. [Video]. Duration 2:32 minutes.

Available from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1u9meHJFGNA

A follow-up documentary ‘An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power’ was released in July 2017. It addresses progress made in tackling climate change, Al Gore's global efforts to persuade governmental leaders to invest in renewable energy, and a call to action, that we ‘Fight like your world depends on it.’ Watch the trailer, and perhaps the whole film, and put your comments on the discussion forum about its effectiveness as a call to action.

Huffington Post (2012) Climate Change Reversing Development Progress In Poorer Countries. [Video]. Duration 18:09 minutes.

Available from: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/11/28/unicef-climate-change-developing-countries_n_2203267.html

UNICEF brings together three experts — Dr Saleemul Haq of the International Institute for Environment and Development, Tom Mitchell from the Overseas Development Institute and Esther Agbarakwe, the head of the Nigerian Youth Climate Coalition – to provide an outline of the key issues of climate change and development.

McKeown, A. & Gardner, G. (2009) Climate change reference guide. In: Worldwatch Institute 2009 State of the World: Confronting Climate Change. London, UK, Earthscan. pp. 189–204.

Available from: http://www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/CCRG.pdf

This provides helpful background information and a glossary of terms that will assist you in this unit and as you read subsequent units. Some of it provides more detail than you need now. If it is not covered in this unit do not worry, come back to it as you read other units.

http://www.eird.org/publicaciones/humanimpactreport.pdf

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnjx6KETmi4

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Peace_Prize

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1u9meHJFGNA

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/11/28/unicef-climate-change-developing-countries_n_2203267.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/11/28/unicef-climate-change-developing-countries_n_2203267.html

http://www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/CCRG.pdf


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Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Schellnhuber, H.J., Alcamo, J., Barker, T., Kammen, D.M., Leemans, R., Liverman, D., Munasinghe, M., Osman-Elasha, B., Stern, N. & Wæver, O. (2009) Synthesis Report. International Scientific Congress: Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions. 10–12 March 2009, University of Copenhagen.

Available from: https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/files/synthesis-report-web.pdf

This synthesis report provides a key summary of the peer-reviewed scientific information available in early 2009. There is much detail here that may be difficult to absorb. Concentrate on the basic six key messages presented, and the broad evidence from which they are derived.

Different parts of this reading are relevant to different sections of the unit. Key messages 1 and 2 are particularly relevant to Section 1. Key messages 3 to 6 are particularly relevant to Section 4, which introduces responses to climate change.

In relating this reading to Section 3 of the unit, you may find it helpful to consider the following questions:

― Looking across the six key messages and considering them together, what strikes you about them as a whole?

― Note the peer review process involved in the presentation of this report (see preface on page 5). Why is such a process needed?

― Do you think each of these key messages is valid? From whose perspectives might it be valid/not valid? By what criteria might validity be judged?

Where do development questions come into in this scientific report on climate change?

Looking at the six key messages together, you might have noted similar points to those noted under the reading by Flavin and Engelman.

Scott, L. & Shepherd, A. (2011) Climate Change as Part of the Post-2015 Development Agenda. London, Overseas Development Institute (ODI). ODI Background Note, July 2011.

Available from: http://www.odi.org.uk/resources/download/5765.pdf

Knowledge of climate change and its potential impacts has developed significantly since the MDGs came into force (in 2000). As post-2015 (post-MDG) development policy discussions seek to learn from past successes and limitations, this background note outlines why climate change needs to be central to this process and in future policy formulation, discusses how this could challenge current development thinking and suggests ways in which climate change and development policies could be better aligned.

Sen, A. (2001) Development as Freedom. Oxford, Oxford University Press. pp. 3–11.

Extract from a book by renowned economist and Nobel prize winner. Taking a human and social development perspective, Sen argues that development is about much more than economic growth. The importance of both political freedom and economic freedom are emphasised.

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/files/synthesis-report-web.pdf

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/files/synthesis-report-web.pdf

http://www.odi.org.uk/resources/download/5765.pdf


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StormCenter Communications and NOAA (2010) State of the Climate in 2009. [Video]. Duration 1:54 minutes.

Available from: http://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/state-climate-2009

This video accompanies the NOAA Report State of the Climate in 2009.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/state-climate-2009


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REFERENCES

Anderson, K. & Bows, A. (2011) Beyond ‘dangerous’ climate change: emission scenarios for a new world. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369, 20–44.

Daly, H. (2010) How a green economy grows: Remarks by Herman Daly, National Council for Science and Environment. Social Issues, University of Maryland, 2010.

Derbyshire, H. & Locke, C. (2008) Gender and Social Development. CeDEP Module, SOAS.

Drexhage, J. & Murphy, D. (2010) Sustainable Development: From Brundtland to Rio 2012. New York, United Nations.

Faccer, K., Nahman, A. & Audouin, M. (2014) Interpreting the green economy: emerging discourses and their considerations for the Global South. Development Southern Africa, 31 (5), 642–657.

GHF. (2009) Human Impact Report: Climate Change: The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis. Geneva, Global Humanitarian Forum (GHF).

Hallegatte, S., Bangalore, M., Bonzanigo, L., Fay, M., Kane, T., Narloch, U., Rozenberg, J., Treguer, D. & Vogt-Schlib, A. (2016) Overview. In: Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. Climate Change and Development Series. Washington DC, World Bank. pp. 1–29.

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