Climate Change

What’s happening?

“Climate change is the greatest challenge of our time”

Mary Robinson, Honorary President Oxfam International

The Science Atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases

and global average temperatures

The Urgency

Greenhouse gas emissions are rising faster than even worst case scenarios

Who’s responsible?

• Historic responsibility for climate change lies with richer industrialised countries. – USA: 24 tonnes per

person– Ireland 17 tonnes

per person

Who is suffering already?

Who’s suffering already?

Who is suffering already?

• Those living in poverty

• Least responsible for the problem

• Least able to cope

Impacts

• Melting glaciers and ice-caps

• Rising sea levels

• Heavier rains

• More frequent droughts

Climate change in not just an environmental issue….

• It is a human rights issue

• It is a development issue

• It is a justice issue

Climate Change Facts

• 250 MILLION PEOPLE are now affected by natural disasters each year - up from an average of 174 million two decades ago

• 150,000 PEOPLE DIE A YEAR due to climate change

• BY 2050, 30 MILLION MORE PEOPLE MAY GO HUNGRY because of climate change

• 185 MILLION PEOPLE in Sub-Saharan Africa could die due to disease directly attributable to climate change

Frequency of Droughts in Uganda

Viable coffee land in Uganda

What’s being done about it?

• UNFCCC

• Kyoto Protocol

• National Actions– e.g. UK Climate Act– Irish Climate Bill?

Copenhagen

• Who was there?

• What was it about?

• What went wrong?

• Outcomes

• What must come next?

Who was there?

• Approx 190 governments

• 119 world leaders inc. Obama, Wen Jiabao etc

• Technocrats

• UN agencies

• Civil society – trade unions, environmental, development NGOs

• Business

From Ireland

• Taoiseach• Minister for the Environment• Minister for Energy• Department of Env, Finance, Ag, DFA,

Irish Aid, EPA.• Politicians• NGOs• Media

What was it about

• How to tackle climate change after 2012– What limit on climate change– What greenhouse gas emissions cuts– What finance to deal with climate change

• Should have been a Fair, Adequate, and Binding deal.

What went wrong in Copenhagen?• A lot to do

• Problems with process, lack of transparency and breakdown of trust

• Flood of texts and negotiations based on entrenched positions

• Chaos and near collapse in High Level segment

The Copenhagen AccordSummary• Totally inadequate to

protect the lives and livelihoods of poor people vulnerable to climate change

• Product of an untransparent & distrusted process

• A snapshot of current global political will. Key is relationship to Bali Action Plan mandate.

Copenhagen outcomes

• Pledges of emissions cuts by rich countries – but the same ones they’d made before

• Fast Start Financing - $30bn over 3 years

• Long Term Financing - $100bn p.a. from 2013

• Agreement to continue negotiating

• Aim of 2 degrees Celsius

Meaning….

• Uncertainty over future deal.– Legally binding outcome?– Replacement of UNFCCC by alternative fora (G20?)

• Mitigation pledges made by 31 Jan likely to mean 4°C global warming– Locks-in low ambition– Locks-in bottom-up approach

Expected mitigation pledges show minimum 4Gt gap to <2ºC trajectory (450ppm)

Low end of pledged ranges

High end of pledged ranges

Ireland at Copenhagen

• Represented through EU

• Little to add

• Fast start financing €100m over 3 years

Where now?

• Return to UN

• UN intercessional in June

• COP Mexico Nov/Dec ’10

• Build political will and process to succeed

Campaigning on Climate Change

THANK YOU