Climate and Global Change Notes 14-1 Greenhouse Effect U.S. tops in 2004 greenhouse gas emissions By Reuters; story last modified Fri Jun 02 17:28:42 PDT

Climate and Global Change Notes

14-1

Greenhouse Effect

Greenhouse Effect

• U.S. tops in 2004 greenhouse gas emissions

By Reuters; story last modified Fri Jun 02 17:28:42 PDT 2006 Many rich nations' emissions of greenhouse gases rose in 2004, led by a U.S. rebound to record highs after a dip since President George W. Bush took office in 2001, according to data released on Friday.

The figures, submitted by 33 governments to the U.N. Climate Secretariat in Bonn, Germany, showed that emissions of heat-trapping carbon dioxide, widely blamed for global warming, rose to 15.1 billion tons in 2004 from 14.5 billion in 1990.

Several nations, especially Russia, where smokestack emissions have plunged since the collapse of the Soviet Union, have yet to submit figures for 2004 so a full overview of industrial nations' emissions is not yet possible.

Still, the data indicate that many nations will struggle to meet goals set by the United Nations' Kyoto Protocol to cut emissions of heat-trapping gases--mainly from power plants, factories and cars--by 5.2 percent below 1990 levels by 2008-12.

Emissions by the United States, the world's main source of greenhouse gases but which did not agree to the Kyoto Protocol, rose by 1.7 percent in 2004 from 2003 to 7.07 billion tons and eclipsed a previous peak of 6.98 billion in 2000.

http://news.com.com/U.S.+tops+in+2004+greenhouse+gas+

emissions/2100-11395_3-6079611.html


14-2

Greenhouse Effect

Greenhouse Effect

• U.S. tops in 2004 greenhouse gas emissions (Con’t)

"Total U.S. emissions have risen by 15.8 percent from 1990 to 2004," the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said in its submission.

Bush pulled out of Kyoto in 2001, saying it would cost U.S. jobs and wrongly excluded developing nations from its 2012 target. But the United States is a party to the U.N.'s broader 1992 climate convention, which aims to limit global warming.

Many scientists say that a build-up of emissions is raising temperatures and could bring catastrophic changes including more heat waves, droughts, and melting ice caps that could raise world sea levels by almost a meter by 2100.

Of the Kyoto backers, 17 of 30 industrialized countries were exceeding their targets by just over 300 million tons in 2004.

On the positive side, however, the other 13 were ahead by more than 600 million tons--highlighting what some analysts say was a flaw in the green pact, giving over-generous targets to former communist states.

Among Kyoto supporters, Spain was about 48 percent above 1990 levels and Portugal, Greece, Canada and Ireland were all at least 20 percent higher.


emissions/2100-11395_3-6079611.html


14-3

Greenhouse Effect

Greenhouse Effect

• U.S. tops in 2004 greenhouse gas emissions (Con’t)

Overall emissions in the 15 longest-standing members of the European Union edged up 0.2 percent in 2004 overall from 2003 to 4.24 billion tons. Overall, they were 1.1 percent below 1990 levels.

At U.N. climate talks in Montreal last year, U.S. climate negotiator Harlan Watson had pointed to Washington's success in cracking down under Bush."Look at the data--the United States has done better in the first three years of the Bush administration in addressing greenhouse gas emissions than the EU...the U.K., France, Germany," he said.

Canada's new conservative government said last month that its Kyoto goal was "unachievable" since the country was 35 percent above target and 27 percent above 1990 levels.Japan was 7 percent above its 1990 emissions levels in 2004, a difference of 83 million tons compared to its Kyoto target of a 6 percent fall.


emissions/2100-11395_3-6079611.html


14-4

Greenhouse Gases & Climate

Greenhouse Gases

Greenhouse Effect

ChangesWater VaporCarbon DioxideMethaneNitrous OxideCFCsOzone

Science Concepts

DefinitionRadiation Budget

Shortwave Transmission

Longwave Absorption

The Earth System (Kump, Kastin & Crane)

• Chap. 1 (pp. 2, 4-5, 41-42, 44, 46-48)


14-5

Greenhouse Effect

http://www.igpp.lanl.gov/Climate_Images/Climate13.gif


14-6

Greenhouse Effect

Solar and Earth-Emitted Radiation Absorption by Atmospheric Gases

100

50

0.30.5 1.0 5.0 10.0 20.015.00

Wavelength (microns)

O2, CO2,H2OO3

O3

CO2

H2O

H2O

CO2,H2O

Far InfraredNear IRUV

Vis-ible

Absorption (%)

95% ofEarth’sRadiation

95% ofSolar

Radiation

Atmosphere is transparent to most of

Sun’s emitted radiation wavelengths

Atmosphere absorbs most of Earth’s emitted radiation wavelengths


14-7

Greenhouse Effect

Greenhouse Effect

• Earth's atmosphere is transparent to solar shortwave radiation, i.e., allows

most of solar radiation to penetrate to the surface

• Earth's atmosphere is opaque to Earth's longwave radiation, i.e., absorbs most

longwave radiation

Result of Greenhouse EffectVenus Earth Mars

Surface Pressure(Relative to Earth) 90 1.0 0.007

Main Greenhouse >90% CO2 ~0.04% CO2 >80% CO2

Gases ~1.4% H2O

Temperature (No Greenhouse) -46°C -18°C -57°C(Greenhouse) 477°C 15°C -47°CDifference 523°C 33°C 10°C


14-8

Changes in Greenhouse Gases Since 1850

• Concentrations of greenhouse

gases in the atmosphere have

risen dramatically in this century

Greenhouse Gases

EOS, 1999: Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases.T.S. Ledley, E.T. Sundquist, S.E. Schwartz, D.K. Hall, J.D. Fellows and T.L. Killeen. 80, p. 453.


14-9

Greenhouse Gases

Emissions of greenhouse gases in the United States 2004. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. DOE/EIA-0573(2004) - ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/oiaf/1605/cdrom/pdf/ggrpt/057304.pdf

U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2004

• U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2004 (million metric tons andpercentage)

- Metric tonne (abbreviated as ton) is a weight equivalent of 1000 kg> About 2205 lbs

• Other CO2 are from non-combustion sources


14-10

U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Changes

• CO2 emissions changes from 1990 to 2004 indexed using 1990

• CO2 emissions per unit Gross Domestic Product have fallen relative to 1990

• CO2 emissions per capita are above 1990 levels. Increasing population growth and rising CO2 emissions per capita have resulted in increased aggregate CO2 emissions per year from 1990 to 2004.

Greenhouse Gases



14-11

U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Changes (Con’t)

• CO2 emissions changes from1990 to 2004 indexed using 1990

• All sector CO2 emissions have increased since 1990 except for 1990-1991 when transportation and industrial sectors decreased because of an economic recession and higher oil prices following Iraqi invasion of Kuwait

• Industrial sector has decreased since 1998

• Decrease in residential sector is ascribed mainly to a 3.5% drop in natural gas

use because of warmer weather that reduced heating degree-days by 5.9%

Greenhouse Gases



14-12

Greenhouse Gases

Global Warming Potentials (GWP; 100 Year Time Horizon)Gas Lifetime GWPCO2 50-200 1CH4 9-15 21*

N2O 120 310HFC-23 264 11,700HFC-32 5.6 650HFC-125 32.6 2,800HFC-134a 14.6 1,300HFC-143a 48.3 3,800HFC-152a 1.5 140HFC-227ea 36.5 26,300HFC-4310mee 17.1 1,300

http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/UniqueKeyLookup/

RAMR69V528/$File/05executivesummary.pdf

* The methane GWP includes the direct effects and those indirect effects due to the production of tropospheric/stratospheric water vapor. The indirect effect due to the production of CO2 is not included.

Not All Greenhouse Gases Are Equal

• The Global Warming Potential (GWP) of a greenhouse gas is defined as the ratio of the time-integrated radiative forcing from the instantaneous release of 1 kg of that substance relative to that of 1 kg of a reference gas. The reference gas used is CO2.


14-13

Greenhouse Gases

Water Vapor (H2O)

• Primary greenhouse gas

Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

• Increased 10% since 1958; 25% since early 19th century

• Sources

- 80% of emissions from fossil fuel

- 20% from burning and decay in deforestation process


14-14

Greenhouse Gases


• Temperature and CO2

300280260240220200180

2

-2-4-6-8

-10

0

0 40 80 120 160

Age (kyrs BP)

300280260240220200180

2

-2-4-6-8-10

0

Derived from Antarctic Ice Cores

CO2 (ppm)

Local (Antarctic)

Temperature

Difference from

Modern Temperature

(°C)


14-15

Greenhouse Gases


• Atmospheric CO2QuickTime™ and a

Photo - JPEG decompressorare needed to see this picture.

0-25000-50000-75000-100000-125000-150000-175000175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375Vostok, Antarctica

Siple Station, West AntarcticaMauna Loa (Annual)

Year

Carbon

Dioxide

Concentration

(ppm)

http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/slides/

slideset/15/15_300_slide.h

tml


14-16

Greenhouse Gases


• Atmospheric CO2

200019751950192519001875185018251800177517501725260

280

300

320

340

360

Siple Station, West AntarcticaMauna Loa (Annual)

Year

Carbon

Dioxide

Concentration

(ppm)


14-17

Greenhouse Gases

Carbon Dioxide (CO2)• Mauna Loa, HI

19° 32' N, 155° 34' W, 3,397 altitude

CO2 Concentration (ppmv)

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

Jan-58

Jan-60

Jan-62

Jan-64

Jan-66

Jan-68

Jan-70

Jan-72

Jan-74

Jan-76

Jan-78

Jan-80

Jan-82

Jan-84

Jan-86

Jan-88

Jan-90

Jan-92

Jan-94

Jan-96

Jan-98

Jan-00

Jan-02

370

371

372

373

374

375

376

Jan-02

Feb-02

Mar-02

Apr-02

May-02

Jun-02

Jul-02

Aug-02

Sep-02

Oct-02

Nov-02

Dec-02

2002http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-mlo.htm


14-18

Greenhouse Gases


• Note change in time - annual cycle

• Notelatitudinalvariation

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Latitude

Year

ppm370

1984

2000

80°S

80°N340

http://gaw.kishou.go.jp/wdcgg.html

EQ

370335


14-19

Greenhouse Gases

AVHRR Vegetation Index

• Global distribution of vegetation

- Red and near-infrared -combined for single image

- Healthy vegetation appears green and arid areas look brown.

February 1992

September 1992http://daac.gsfc.nasa.gov/CAMPAIGN_DOCS/LAND_BIO/Ed_Autumn_Illustration.html


14-20

Greenhouse Gases

AVHRR Vegetation Index• Global 1982-1998 Vegetation Index

http://www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Observatory/


14-21

Greenhouse Gases

Phytoplankton Bloom• Chlorophyll - Red most; Blue least

http://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi/level3.pl?DAY=20Oct2004&PER=&TYP=machl&RRW=16

Jan 2004 Apr 2004

Jul 2004 Oct 2004


14-22

Greenhouse Gases

http://www.epa.gov/reg3artd/images/warm.jpg

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor


CO2 National/Region Emissions

• 1995 versus projected 2035

• Note change in distribution

• Note almost doubling of total release

U.S. CO2 Emissions and Source




14-23

Greenhouse Gases





http://eetd.lbl.gov/newsletter/cbs_nl/nl15/ghg.html

CO2 Per Capita Emissions• Note

- USA is largest- House heating and automobile travel are a large

portion of emissions- USA reduced per capita emissions between 1973 and

1991; slight increase between 1991 and 1997

Carbon emissions per capita 1973 versus 1991 by major end use


14-24

Greenhouse Gases

CO2 Per Units of Economic Output (Gross National Product)Emissions GNP Emissions/GNP RatioCountry (metric tons CO2/year)(billions of $/year) (metric tons CO2/year)China 2,236.3 372.3a 6.01b

South Africa 284.2 79.0 3.60Romania 220.7 79.8a 2.77b

Poland 459.4 172.4 2.66India 600.6 237.9 2.52East Germany 327.4 159.5a 2.05aCzechoslovakia 233.6 123.2a 1.90b

Mexico 306.9 176.7 1.74U.S.S.R. 3,982.0 2,659.5a 1.50b

South Korea 204.6 171.3 1.19Canada 437.8 435.9 1.00United States 4,804.1 4,880.1 0.98Australia 241.3 246.0 0.98United Kingdom 559.2 702.4 0.80Brazil 202.4 323.6 0.63West Germany 669.9 1,201.8 0.56Spain 187.7 340.3 0.55Italy 359.7 828.9 0.43Japan 989.3 2,843.7 0.35France 320.1 949.4 0.34

a Estimates of GNP for centrally planned economies are subject to large margins of error. These estimates are as much 100 times larger than those from other sources that correct for availability of goods or use free-market exchange rates.

b The emissions/GNP is also likely to be underestimated for centrally planned economies. Source: National Academy of Sciences, Policy Implications of Global Warming (Washington, D.C.: 1991).

National Academy of Sciences, 1992:Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base


14-25

Greenhouse Gases

Number of pounds of carbon dioxide emitted into the air for each mile driven in a passenger car that gets 22 mpg: 0.9

Number of pounds of carbon dioxide produced by burning 1 gallon of gasoline: 19

Gasoline is a hydrocarbon such as “heptane” or C7H16. “Burning” gasoline means to oxidize or to chemically combine it with oxygen. Ideally when gasoline combines with oxygen it produces carbon dioxide (CO2) and water (H2O).

Heptane + Oxygen => Carbon Dioxide + WaterC7H16 + 11 O2 => 7 CO2 + 8 H2O

Carbon (C) “weighs” 12 atomic units; hydrogen (H) 1 atomic unit; and oxygen (O) 16 atomic units. So

C7H16 + 11 O2 => 7 CO2 + 8 H2O(7)(12)+(16)(1) (22)(16) (7)(12)+(14)(16)(16)(1)+(8)(16)

100 units + 352 units => 308 units + 144 units

Gasoline weighs ~ 5.666 lb per gal. Thus,

C7H16 + 11 O2 => 7 CO2 + 8 H2O 5.666 lb + 19.94 lb => 17.45 lb + 8.15 lb


14-26

Greenhouse Gases

• In the United States, transportation consumes 67% of petroleum used, over half

of which is imported.

• Over three-quarters of transportation energy use is by highway vehicles—60%

by cars and light trucks (including minivans and SUVs) and 16% by heavy

trucks. Transportation energy consumption is increasing by 1.8% per year,

faster than any other major category of energy use.

http://www.aceee.org/energy/cafe.htm

• Motor vehicles are responsible for about 31% of all carbon dioxide emission in the U.S.

• Worldwide the percentage is about 15%

Lyman, Francesca, 1990: The Greenhouse Trap. Beacon Press, Boston. pp. xiii-xiv.

Lyman, Francesca, 1990: The Greenhouse Trap. Beacon Press, Boston. p. 38.

0200400600800

100012001400160018002000

1980 1990 2001 2002

MMTCO

2 Commercial

Residential

Industrial

Transportation

Source: 1980, 1990, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/appendixe.html2002, preliminary estimate calculated for the flash estimate.


14-27

Greenhouse Gases

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Miles Per Gallon

CarsLight Trucks & SUVsCombined

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Percentage

Light Truck & SUV Percentage

Note Changes (1975, 1987, 1997, 2006)

• Combined mpg13.1, 22.1, 20.9, 21.0 mpg

• Light truck & SUV percentage 19, 28, 42, 50%

• Combined weight4060, 3220, 3727, 4142 lbs

• Combined horsepower137, 118, 169, 219 hp

• Examples (2006):

Honda & Toyota Hybrid ~60 mpg

GM K1500 Sierra AWD 15 mpg

Best SUV Ford Escape Hydrid FWD 33.3 mpg

Heavenrich, R.M., 2006: Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2006, EPA420-R-06-011http://www.epa.gov/otaq/fetrends.htm


14-28

Greenhouse Gases

NBC’s Today Show

• May 13, 2005 - Will this summer's travel plans become a pain in the pump? As

part of an NBC News series looking at increasing gas prices, "Today" sent

three families driving from L.A. to N.Y. in six days, using three different

vehicles, for its "Today's Great American Gas Challenge." "Today" touches

base with the families as they report back live about their experiences from that

day's destination.

- "Today's Great American Gas Challenge" contestants were:

Riley family (Redding ,CA)Vehicle: Lincoln Navigator (SUV; 15 mpg)

Fowler family (Long Beach, CA)Vehicle: Ford 500 (Midsize; 25 mpg)

Pletcher family (Thousand Oaks, CA)Vehicle: Honda Civic Hybrid (40 mpg)

- Most expensive gas for trip - Ludlow, CA - $2.96/gallon

Cheapest gas for trip - Howe, IN - $1.91/gallon

- Gas Mileage and Total Amount Spent on Gas

Riley Family (SUV): 17 mpg - $459.27Fowler Family (Midsize): 26 mpg - $277.98Pletcher Family (Hybrid): 42 mpg - $172.67


14-29

Greenhouse Gases

New Hummer H1 2006 4X4

Engine = 300-horsepower turbo-diesel V8

Curb Weight = 7,847 lbs

Full Capacity = 52.5 gal

Crusing Range = Nearly 600 miles

Why are gas prices so high?

“Who’s to blame? Americans point fingers at the oil companies, foreign nations that control the oil supply, and politicians.”

Huntsville Times, Friday 22 April 2005, Front page

http://www.hummer.com/

“Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself.”

Leo Tolstoy - Russian novelist (1828 - 1910)“The basic question is this: given human nature, are any of us really capable of change?”

Sue Grafton - R is for Ricochet, p. 1


14-30

Greenhouse Gases

Steps to Save Gas and Reduce Pollution

• Never top off your tank. Expansion will cause your excess to spill out.

• Keep your tires properly inflated. You lose 2% fuel efficiency for each pound of pressure you're low.

• Tighten your gas cap. Gas can evaporate, causing your check-engine light to come on.

• Make sure you are ready to go. Idling for 2 min uses enough fuel to drive one mile.

• Make sure your wheels are aligned. Poor alignment causes the engine to work harder.

• Drive 55 mph instead of 65. That can get you up to three more miles per gallon.

• Keep steady pressure on the gas pedal and use cruise control when possible.

• Remove bike racks, carriers, etc. They can increase fuel consumption by five miles per gallon.

• Use your air conditioner in town as little as possible. It uses 3 to 5% more fuel. But opening windows on the highway can cost you 10% in fuel economy.

• Travel light. Make sure you are not carrying extra weight that could be left out. The lighter the car, the better gas mileage you get.

• Make sure you car is properly maintained. Get a tuneup and get the car serviced if the check-engine light comes on.

• Plan trips so that you take the shortest, most direct routes and make trips in one outing.

Huntsville Times (Sunday March 13, 2005) Source: AAA Alabama


14-31

Greenhouse Gases

Meat Grain Energy * Water(per lb) (lbs)(gals of gasoline)(gallons)Pork 6.9 0.44 430Beef 4.8 0.25 390

Chicken 2.8 0.19 375Eggs 2.6 0.14 n/aMilk 0.1 0.02 n/a

* Energy equivalent of a gallon of gasoline is used for comparison, most of the energy is natural gas used in fertilizer production for grain.

American’s annual consumption of red meat and poultry together is at an all-time high of 178 lbs per person for 1990, up from 137 lbs in 1955.

The average American consumed in 1990

65 lbs of beef and veal, 63 lbs of poultry,

49 lbs of pork, 139 eggs,products made from 70 gals of milk.

Durning, Alan B., 1991: Fat of the land. World-Watch. 4:3, pp. 11-17.


14-32

Greenhouse Gases

• 40% of the world’s grain production, and more than 70% of the U.S. production,

is fed to livestock.

If all this grain were used to feed people, it would feed five times as many

people as it does after being converted to meat, milk and eggs. It would also

use less energy and produce less carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.

• A one pound steak has about the same greenhouse-warming effect as a 25-mile

drive in a typical American car.

Durning, Alan B., 1991: Fat of the land. World-Watch. 4:3, pp. 11-17.


14-33



El Niño Years

Greenhouse Gases

Global Warming/CO2 Effects??• From 1982 to 1999, in addition to

increased CO2, the climate grewwarmer, wetter and sunnier, andfor the most part, plants flourished(Green areas)

• Note global primary productivity (NPP) between 1982-1999 25% of Earth’s vegetated area experienced increased plant productivity, total increase of ~6%

• Note El Niño years decreased overall plant growth

• Eruption of Mt. Pinatubo also decreased NPP

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/GlobalGarden/


14-34

Greenhouse Gases

Carbon Dioxide Effects• Increases in CO2 stimulate the growth of plants while

reducing their water requirements • As plants grow more, they remove more CO2 from the

atmosphere and contribute additional organic carbon

to the food web• Will benefits to plants help offset the deleterious

effects of rising CO2 concentrations? • Exposing

portions of ecosystems to elevated CO2 in outdoor chambers

` to testhttp://www.serc.si.edu/SERC_web_html/resglobal.htm

http://www.serc.si.edu/SERC_web_html/research.htm


14-35

Methane (CH4)

• 3.5 billion years ago, there was 1,000 times more CH4. Earliest CH4 formed by

volcanoes and ancient bacteria that converted H2 and CO2 into CH4 and H2O • Makes up 96% of natural gas

• 50 million more tons per year into atmosphere

• Sources

- Rotting of organic matter in peat bogs- Wetlands, rice patties, landfills- Bacteria living in digestive tracks of farm

animals such as cattle- Termites

Greenhouse Gases

Pounds of Garbage Produced Per Person

Per Year

U.S. 1,637Norway 1,183Netherlands 1,100Germany 823Sweden 662France 572Italy 548Portugal 367

Recycling Advocate




14-36

Greenhouse Gases

Methane (CH4)

• Global CH4 change since 1900

• U.S. CH4 source and change since 1990

1996198419721960194819361924191219001550

1575

1600

1625

1650

1675

1700Methane Concentration

Year

Methane Concentration

(ppm)



14-37

Greenhouse Gases

Nitrous Oxide (N2O)

• Globally N2O increased 10% since 1880; 0.2-0.3% per year

• In stratosphere, helps destroy ozone

• U.S. sources and change since 1990

• Sources

- Coal burning

- Forest fires

- Bacterial action on chemical fertilizers



14-38

Greenhouse Gases

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)

• Sources

- Refrigeration and air conditioning

- Aerosols

- Blowing agent in plastic foams

- Solvent for cleaning electronic parts

- Some fire extinguishers


14-39

Greenhouse Gases

Ozone

• 10% in troposphere; 90% in stratosphere

• Lifespan hours to days

• Sources

- Photochemicalchemistry

- Some manmadeStratosphere

Troposphere10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Temperature (°F)-120 -80 -40 0 40 80

50

100

150

200

250

300

Ozone Concentration

Height (km)

Height (kft)


14-40

Greenhouse Gases

Growth Rate of Greenhouse Gases

• Growth rate is decreasing since high in 1980s

• Largely because of reductions in CFCs

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/intro/hansen_05/

Documents

Climate and Global Change Notes 14-1 Greenhouse Effect U.S. tops in 2004 greenhouse gas emissions By Reuters; story last modified Fri Jun 02 17:28:42 PDT