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“Clean Fuels and Clean Vehicles in Bulgaria”. Michael P. Walsh February, 2006. Overview. Why We Are Concerned About Vehicle Emissions Clean Fuels-Clean Vehicles – A Systems Approach Clean Cars: New and Existing Clean Buses: New and Existing Clean Off Road Technology Economic Instruments - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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““Clean Fuels and Clean Vehicles in Clean Fuels and Clean Vehicles in Bulgaria”Bulgaria”
Michael P. WalshMichael P. Walsh
February, 2006February, 2006
OverviewOverview
• Why We Are Concerned About Vehicle Emissions
• Clean Fuels-Clean Vehicles – A Systems Approach
• Clean Cars: New and Existing• Clean Buses: New and Existing• Clean Off Road Technology• Economic Instruments• Traffic Control
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Millions
Motorcycles
Commercial Vehicles
Cars
World Motor Vehicle Population
……..increased congestion!!increased congestion!!
Products of CombustionProducts of Combustion
• Lead• Hydrocarbons• Carbon
Monoxide• Oxides of
Nitrogen• Carbon Dioxide• Particulates• Other pollutants• Water Vapor
Ambient Air Real Fuel
Engine/EmissionTechnology
Other Emissions From VehiclesOther Emissions From Vehicles
Evaporative Emissions diurnal, running losses, hot soak
Crankcase Losses due to "blow-by"
Refueling Losses displaced vapors
• Other Emissions
• brake linings, tire wear, fluid leaks
Carbon monoxide(CO)
What pollutants are of concern? What pollutants are of concern?
Ozone(ROG + NOx)
Haze
Particles (PM10/PM2.5)
(NOx, SOx, ROG, ammonia)Toxics
- Diesel particles- Benzene- Chromium- Asbestos
Greenhouse Gases
- CO2, methane
Health Impacts of Air PollutionHealth Impacts of Air Pollution
Developmental EffectsDevelopmental Effects
HospitalizationHospitalization
Asthma Attacks and BronchitisAsthma Attacks and Bronchitis
PrematurePremature DeathsDeaths
CancerCancer
Adverse Health Effects From Air Adverse Health Effects From Air Pollution Beyond DisputePollution Beyond Dispute
• WHO Concludes ~ 800,000 Premature Deaths Each Year From Urban PM
• Numerous Studies in Europe & US Consistently Link PM With Premature Deaths, Hospital Admissions, Asthma Attacks, Etc.
• No Evidence of a Threshold• Ozone Also A Serious Health Concern• NO2, Various Toxics Also Problematic
HEALTH IMPACTS OF HEALTH IMPACTS OF VEHICLE EXHAUSTVEHICLE EXHAUST
• Over the past decade, dozens of studies from all over the world have shown that spending time in close proximity to heavy traffic, especially diesel truck traffic, is associated with a wide range of morbidity effects, as well as increased mortality
• Diesel exhaust particulate (DEP) declared a toxic air contaminant by ARB in 1998
Proximity To Truck Traffic Linked To Lung Proximity To Truck Traffic Linked To Lung Function in ChildrenFunction in Children
1,860
1,920
1,980
2,040
2,100
7500 12500 17500 22500
Truck Traffic Density
Lun
g F
unct
ion
in li
ter
FEV1
Brunekreef, Epidemiology; 8: 298-303
NONOxx emissions emissions EU-25EU-25
Power generationPower generation
Industrial combustionIndustrial combustion
Industrial processesIndustrial processes
Domestic
DomesticGasoline cars
Gasoline cars
Diesel carsDiesel cars
Off-road
Diesel heavy duty veh.
Diesel heavy duty veh.
Off-road
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2000 2020
RELATIVE POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS RELATIVE POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS vs DISTANCE FROM I-405 FREEWAYvs DISTANCE FROM I-405 FREEWAY
(Zhu et al., 2002a)(Zhu et al., 2002a)
Typical engine exhaust mass and number Typical engine exhaust mass and number weighted size distributions shown with weighted size distributions shown with
alveolar depositionalveolar deposition
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.2
0.001 0.010 0.100 1.000 10.000
Diameter (m)
No
rmal
ized
Co
nce
ntr
atio
n,
dC
/Cto
tal/d
log
Dp
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Alv
eola
r D
epo
siti
on
Fra
ctio
n
Mass Weighting Number Weighting Alveolar Deposition Fraction
Fine
ParticlesDp < 2.5 m
Ultrafine ParticlesDp < 100 nm
Nanoparticles
Dp < 50 nm
NucleiMode
AccumulationMode
CoarseMode
PM10
Dp < 10 m
Fractional deposition of particle with density of 1 g/um
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Time (120 minutes)Outside Vehicle 1 Inside Vehicle 1
HDD Delivery VanDiesel Charter Bus
ARB In-Vehicle StudyARB In-Vehicle StudyReal-Time Fine Particle CountsReal-Time Fine Particle Counts
(L.A. Freeway, AM Rush Hour, Vent Open)(L.A. Freeway, AM Rush Hour, Vent Open)T
ota
l P
arti
cle
Co
un
ts /
cc
CLEAN
VEHICLE
TECHNOLOGY
CLEAN
FUELS
APPROPRIATE
MAINTENANCE
ELEMENTS OF A COMPREHENSIVE
VEHICLE POLLUTION CONTROL STRATEGY
TRANSPORTATION & LAND USE PLANNING
Why Are Fuels Important?Why Are Fuels Important?• Fuel Constituents Directly Affect
Emissions
• Fuel Changes Can Immediately Impact on Emissions/Air Quality
• Fuel Composition Can Enable/Disable Pollution Control Technology
ÖL
Motivation For ImprovedMotivation For Improved Fuels Qualities Fuels Qualities
Carbon monoxide (CO)
Hydrocarbons (HC)
Nitrogen oxides (NOX)
Particulate matter (PM)
Sulfur (SO2)
Polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAH)
Greenhouse Gases
ImprovedImprovedfuel qualitiesfuel qualities
ImprovedImprovedair qualityair quality
Environmental Environmental benefitsbenefits
ReducedReducedemissionsemissions
Gasoline – Lead/Sulfur
Diesel –Sulfur
Other Parameters
Improved human health
Reduced corrosion
Improved crop yield
Less acidification, eutrophication and forest damage
Climate Change
2726
17
7
1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Micrograms per Deciliter
Blood Lead Levels Considered Elevated
Is Any Lead Acceptable From A Health Standpoint?
Study Indicates Largest Impact Study Indicates Largest Impact at Very Low Lead Levelsat Very Low Lead Levels
• New England Journal of Medicine (4/17/2003)
• 172 children tested at 6, 12, 18, 24, 36, 48, 60 months
• Corrected for confounding variables
• 101 children never above 10µg/dl
• Blood lead significantly associated with I/Q
7.4
2.5
0
2
4
6
8
IQ Loss as Lead Increases
from 1to 10from 10to 30
Ambient Pb Concentrations in BangAmbient Pb Concentrations in Bangkok and Pb in Gasoline from 1988 - 1kok and Pb in Gasoline from 1988 - 1
998998
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Pb
Co
nte
nt
in G
aso
lin
e (g
/l)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Av
era
ge
Pb
Co
nc
en
tra
tio
n ( g
/m3 )
Pb Content in Gasoline Ambient Pb Concentration
Premium ULG was introduced in 1991
Regular ULG was introduced in 1993
Complete phase out of regular leadedgasoline in 1993
Complete phase out of premium leadedgasoline in 1995
36.4
29.7
25.326.8 26.4
22.9
0
5.943.26
6.25
1.711.58
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
School 1 School 2 School 3 School 4 School 5 School 6
Per
cen
t
1993 2000
Percentage of School Children with Blood Percentage of School Children with Blood PbPb
Levels Levels ≥≥ 10 10 g/dlg/dl
The Three-way Catalytic Converter: A Familiar Technology Re-Engineered for High Performance in Close-coupled and
Underfloor Applications
•Layered washcoat architectures and support materials with high thermal stability•Integrated HC adsorption functions• Mounting materials with improved durability• High cell density ceramic or metallic substrates• Insulation schemes for heat management
Can Only Be Used With Lead Free Fuel
The “Technology Enabling”The “Technology Enabling”Fuels Story in EuropeFuels Story in Europe
EVOLUTION OF THE REGULATORY EXHAUST EMISSION STANDARDS FOR PASSENGER CARS IN THE EU
74
/29
0/E
EC
77
/10
2/E
EC
78
/66
5/E
EC
83
/35
1/E
EC
91
/44
1/E
EC
94
/12
/EC
70
/22
0/E
EC
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
%HC + NOx
%CO
%
The “Technology Enabling” Fuels Story in EuropeThe “Technology Enabling” Fuels Story in Europe-Introduction of unleaded Gasoline --Introduction of unleaded Gasoline -
• Until early 80’s “lead reduction/phase out” initiative in Europe, transport Until early 80’s “lead reduction/phase out” initiative in Europe, transport fuel specifications largely determined by performance concerns rather fuel specifications largely determined by performance concerns rather than environmental concernsthan environmental concerns
• Introduction of unleaded gasoline provided the “enabling fuel” for Introduction of unleaded gasoline provided the “enabling fuel” for introduction of catalyst technology-rate of introduction largely determined introduction of catalyst technology-rate of introduction largely determined by tax incentive of unleaded vs leadedby tax incentive of unleaded vs leaded
• Availability of unleaded gasoline in Europe, for all countries, has led the Availability of unleaded gasoline in Europe, for all countries, has led the demand from catalyst equipped vehiclesdemand from catalyst equipped vehicles
• EU Directive 98/70/EC required complete phase out of leaded gasoline by EU Directive 98/70/EC required complete phase out of leaded gasoline by Jan 1, 2000 Jan 1, 2000
• Derogation for maximum of two years (Jan 1, 2002) granted for countries Derogation for maximum of two years (Jan 1, 2002) granted for countries (southern Europe) with slower fleet turnovers(southern Europe) with slower fleet turnovers
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Per
cen
tag
e o
f U
nle
aded
in
To
tal
Gas
oli
ne
Po
ol
Europe Fastest Slowest
Relationship Between Vehicle Technology Relationship Between Vehicle Technology and Introduction of Unleaded Gasoline in Europeand Introduction of Unleaded Gasoline in Europe
Nor
mal
dea
dlin
e fo
r P
hase
-out
of
lead
edN
orm
al d
eadl
ine
for
Pha
se-o
ut o
f le
aded
Max
Der
ogat
ion
for
Pha
se-o
utM
ax D
erog
atio
n fo
r P
hase
-out
91
/44
1/
91
/44
1/ E
EC
/Eu
ro I
EE
C/E
uro
I
94
/12
/9
4/1
2/ E
C/E
uro
II
EC
/Eu
ro I
I
Why Low Sulfur Fuel?Why Low Sulfur Fuel?
• Lowers Emissions From Existing Vehicles– SO2 From All Vehicles– PM From Diesel Vehicles– CO, HC, NOx, Toxics From All Catalyst
Vehicles
• Enables Advanced Technologies & Tight Standards For New Vehicles
• Enables Retrofit Technologies To Clean Up Existing Vehicles
The “Technology Enabling” Fuels Story in EuropeThe “Technology Enabling” Fuels Story in Europe-Introduction of Lower Sulphur Fuels --Introduction of Lower Sulphur Fuels -
• Lowering of sulphur levels on both Diesel (to 2000ppm) and Gasoline (unleaded to Lowering of sulphur levels on both Diesel (to 2000ppm) and Gasoline (unleaded to 500 ppm) in late 80’s largely driven by direct concerns over urban air quality (SO500 ppm) in late 80’s largely driven by direct concerns over urban air quality (SO22) )
• Further move on Transport Diesel in early 90’s (2000Further move on Transport Diesel in early 90’s (2000 500 ppm largely seen as 500 ppm largely seen as “enabling” step for oxidation catalyst on LD Diesel required to meet 1996 emission “enabling” step for oxidation catalyst on LD Diesel required to meet 1996 emission standards standards
• First European Auto Oil programme (93-96) indicates lower sulphur gasoline First European Auto Oil programme (93-96) indicates lower sulphur gasoline enhances catalyst performance: 2000 limit: 150ppm and 2005 limit at 50ppmenhances catalyst performance: 2000 limit: 150ppm and 2005 limit at 50ppm
• Same programme indicated lower sulphur diesel contributes to lower particulates Same programme indicated lower sulphur diesel contributes to lower particulates both directly and through enabling higher performance technology: 2000 limit: both directly and through enabling higher performance technology: 2000 limit: 350ppm and 2005 limit at 50ppm350ppm and 2005 limit at 50ppm
• More recent concerns over growing COMore recent concerns over growing CO22 contribution from road transport has contribution from road transport has driven move to “Ultra Low” sulphur gasoline and diesel to facilitate “high fuel driven move to “Ultra Low” sulphur gasoline and diesel to facilitate “high fuel efficiency”/“high environmental performance” transport :efficiency”/“high environmental performance” transport :
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Su
lph
ur
Le
vel
mg
/kg
Leaded Gasoline Upper Range
Leaded Gasoline Lower Range
Unleaded Gasoline
Diesel
74
/29
0/
74
/29
0/ E
EC
EE
C
77
/10
2/
77
/10
2/ E
EC
EE
C
78
/66
5/
78
/66
5/ E
EC
EE
C
83
/35
1/
83
/35
1/ E
EC
EE
C
91
/44
1/
91
/44
1/ E
EC
/Eu
ro I
EE
C/E
uro
I
94
/12
/9
4/1
2/ E
C/E
uro
II
EC
/Eu
ro I
I
70
/22
0/
70
/22
0/ E
EC
EE
C
Eu
ro I
IIE
uro
III
Eu
ro I
VE
uro
IV
Relationship Between Vehicle Technology Relationship Between Vehicle Technology and Sulphur in Gasoline & Diesel Fueland Sulphur in Gasoline & Diesel Fuel
The Three-way Catalytic Converter: A Familiar Technology Re-Engineered for High Performance in Close-coupled and
Underfloor Applications
•Layered washcoat architectures and support materials with high thermal stability•Integrated HC adsorption functions• Mounting materials with improved durability• High cell density ceramic or metallic substrates• Insulation schemes for heat management
Maximum Emissions Performance Is Only Achieved With Near Zero Sulfur Fuel
33%
67%
26%
74%
30%
70%
CO/10 HC NOx0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Compared to 150 PPM SulfurPercent Increase
500 ppm 800 ppm
Increase in In-Use Vehicle Emissions Increase in In-Use Vehicle Emissions in Bangkok Due To Sulfur in Fuel in Bangkok Due To Sulfur in Fuel
(Gasoline)(Gasoline)
Impact on Vehicles Meeting EURO 3 Standards
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
PPMFuel Sulfur
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
gram
s/ki
lom
eter
PM
Em
issi
ons
Other PMSulfur
Linkage Between Fuel Sulfur and Linkage Between Fuel Sulfur and PM EmissionsPM Emissions
Oxidation Catalyst
PM Filter
Enabling Emissions ControlEnabling Emissions ControlSulfur Is The Lead of the Sulfur Is The Lead of the
New CenturyNew CenturyGasoline Cars and TrucksGasoline Cars and Trucks
1975 1981 1994 '99 & '01 20040
1
2
3
4
g/m
ile HCNOx
Gasoline Passenger Car Emission Stds
For Catalyzed Cars, Lead Removal is Necessary
Sulfur Reduction is Necessary for Advanced Tech Cars
45%
94%
0%5%
16%
33%
HC NOx PM0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Percent Increase Compared to 150 PPM Sulfur
350 ppm 500 ppm
Increase in In-Use Vehicle Emissions Increase in In-Use Vehicle Emissions in Bangkok Due To Sulfur in Fuel in Bangkok Due To Sulfur in Fuel
(Diesel)(Diesel)
Impact on Vehicles Meeting EURO 3 Standards
European Fuel Sulfur Levels European Fuel Sulfur Levels (PPM)(PPM)
500
150
5010
500
350
5010
0
100
200
300
400
500
Gasoline Diesel
Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5
Widely AvailableIn 2005; 100%In 2009
SingaporeMalaysia
ThailandPhilippines
IndonesiaMyanmar
BruneiIndia
PakistanBangladesh
Sri LankaChina
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
US Cents per Liter
10502503505001,0003,000
Cost of Reducing Sulfur in Diesel Fuel in Asia
(High Sulfur Crude)
Requirement 1996 (Euro 2) 2000 (Euro 3) 2005 (Euro 4) 2009 (Euro 5)
GasolineVapour Pressure (Summer)max kPa
60 60 ?
Benzenemax Vol % 1 1 ?
Aromaticsmax Vol % 42 35 ?
Sulphurmax ppm 500 150 50/10 10
Diesel
Cetane Numbermin 48 51 51 ?
Densitymax kg/m3 845 845 ?
Polycyclic Aromaticsmax Mass % 11 11 ?
Sulphurmax ppm 500 350 50/10 10
Selective EU Fuel Quality Requirements
Gasoline Effects on EmissionsGasoline Effects on Emissions
+ ++
+++
- --
---
2-10 %10-20 %> 20 %
Improvementor
Deterioration}0 2 %
Fuel-
Reduction of :
Benzene
Aromatics
Olefins
Vapor pressure
Adjustment
Volatility
Addition Oxygenates
Regulated
CO
Unregulated
Sulphur
HC NOx Benzene Aldehydechange
Emissions
o + o
o o o
--
++++ ++ +++
+ + +
+ +++ ++ ?
++ +
-
o ooo
o
o/+
o-
-
o
o
o
Butadiene
o
---++
o
o
?
o
---
oo
00_213700_2137
Diesel-Fuel Effects on Diesel-Fuel Effects on EmissionsEmissions
Diesel fuel-change
Reduction of:
Poly-Aromatics
Back End Distillation (T95)
Increase of ...
CO
Sulphur
HC NOx Particulates
+/++
++/o
+++/++ +++/+
Vehicle - Emissions LDV / HDV
Density ++/- ++/
Cetane Number
o o ? / o
o/o- /
++- / o +
o+/o- //- -o/-
o o- /
+/--
-
+Effect + ++
+++ o
- --
---
2-10 %10-20 %> 20 %
Improvementor
Deterioration} - 2 %
Fuel octane under pressure due to elimination of lead
Organo-metallic additives are a cheap way to increase octane
Experience with these additives shows that they can cause
Health problems
Technical problems
MMT is An Emerging Fuels Problem
Implications of Recent Study
“The finding that manganese transport out of the brain occurs via the slow process of diffusion, rather than via carrier-mediated transport, is important: it suggests that no mechanism exists to protect the brain from accumulating manganese. This finding has important implications for neurotoxicity resulting from chronic manganese exposure.”
Experience with MMT China: Blocked catalytic converter
After
33.000 km
Red Deposits of
Manganese-Oxide
Source: Schindler, VW
ICCT Conclusions Regarding ICCT Conclusions Regarding MMTMMT
Considering the available information, the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is unable to conclude that the use of MMT will not result in direct adverse health impacts nor that emissions of CO, HC and NOx from catalyst equipped cars will not increase. Based upon the precautionary principle, the California Air Resources Board banned the use of MMT in unleaded gasoline in 1976. In 1996, the Administrator of the EPA stated, “the American public should not be used as a laboratory to test the safety of MMT” (Browner 1996). The ICCT believes this statement to be true for the citizens of every country. Consistent with the precautionary principle, the ICCT recommends that countries delay any use of MMT in gasoline at this time, pending the outcome of ongoing health-based studies and further review of the vehicle impacts.
Copies of the ICCT Report Available at http://www.cleantransportcouncil.org/index.php