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Clark Capital Management Group. Sean Clark, CFA Chief Investment Officer Clark Capital Management Group. About Clark Capital. Philadelphia Based RIA $2.0 Billion in AUM Family and Employee Owned Institutional Asset Management Firm 11 Investment Professionals 5 CFAs on Staff - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Clark Capital Management Group, Inc.1
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Clark Capital Management Group
Sean Clark, CFAChief Investment Officer
Clark Capital Management Group
Clark Capital Management Group, Inc.2
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About Clark Capital
Philadelphia Based RIA$2.0 Billion in AUMFamily and Employee OwnedInstitutional Asset Management Firm11 Investment Professionals 5 CFAs on Staff Average 20+ Years Experience
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Modern Portfolio Theory
Dr. Harry Markowiz published “Portfolio Selection: The Efficient Diversification of Investments” in the Journal of Finance in 1952.
Markowtiz postulated that an “efficient frontier” shows that securities can be blended within portfolios to minimize risk at various levels of (expected) return.
Based upon 3 assumptions: Normally distributed variability of returns (Normal
Distribution) Markets follow a random walk pattern Diversification can be properly quantified by correlation
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Problems with Efficient Frontier
Efficient Frontier Is Based upon Historical Inputs That Are by Definition Not Stable: Returns Change Standard Deviations (risk) Change Correlation Change
You Need Stable Inputs to Create A Future Efficient Frontier to Manage Risk!
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“Any plan conceived in moderation, must fail when
circumstances are set in extremes.”
Prince Metternick
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nly Based on Normal (Bell Shaped) Distribution
Commute Time Minutes
90 80 70 60 50 40 30
Example for illustrative purposes only. The presenter did not track commute times.
Commute-Time Model
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35384144475053565962656871747780838689929598101
104
107
110
113
116
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125
128
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134
0
10
20
30
40
50
Commute Time
Frequency
Theoretical (Normal Distribution)Actual Experience
Snow Model breaks down
Nice Weather Model Works
Example for illustrative purposes only. The presenter did not track commute times.
909 Commutesfrom 1/1/2006 to 12/31/2009
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January 1991 - March 2010
Per
cent
age
of M
onth
s (%
)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Returns Range (%)
< -17 -17 to -15 -15 to -13 -13 to -11 -11 to -9 -9 to -7 -7 to -5 -5 to -3 -3 to -1 -1 to 1 1 to 3 3 to 5 5 to 7 7 to 9 9 to 11 > 11
S&P 500
S&P 500 Tail Risk
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Snow for Asset Classes
Source: PSN/Informa Investment Solutions
Monthly Returns for Asset Classes 1/98 to 3/09
MetricBarclay
AggregateML High
Yield S&P 500 REITSMSCI EAFE
MSCI Emerging Mkts.
DJ AIG Comm-odity
Mean Monthly Return 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.7Monthly Standard Deviation 1.1 2.8 4.7 6.4 5.0 7.6 5.9
100 Year Monthly Loss (Normal Distribution) -2.9 -8.4 -14.8 -19.8 -15.4 -23.0 -17.8
Worst 4 out of 135 Months1st Worst Month -3.4 -16.3 -16.8 -32.7 -20.2 -28.9 -29.92nd Worst Month -2.6 -8.4 -14.5 -24.7 -14.4 -27.4 -15.53rd Worst Month -2.4 -8.3 -10.9 -21.7 -12.4 -17.5 -12.64th Worst Month -1.8 -7.1 -10.6 -18.2 -10.7 -15.5 -9.0
Years between extreme monthly lossthat should occur based upon normal distribution
1st Worst Month 428 71,649,687
464 633,762
4,265 1,891 918,716
2nd Worst Month 37 97 79 1,742 53 820 293rd Worst Month 19 88 8 285 15 10 74th Worst Month 4 22 7 42 6 5 2
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Snow for Asset Classes
Source: PSN/Informa Investment Solutions
Monthly Returns for Asset Classes 1/98 to 3/09
Metric ML High Yield S&P 500
Mean Monthly Return 0.3 0.1Monthly Standard Deviation 2.8 4.7100 Year Monthly Loss (Normal Distribution) -8.4 -14.8
1st Worst Month -16.3 -16.82nd Worst Month -8.4 -14.53rd Worst Month -8.3 -10.94th Worst Month -7.1 -10.6
1st Worst Month 71,649,687 4642nd Worst Month 97 793rd Worst Month 88 84th Worst Month 22 7
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-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
9/08 + 10/08
10/08 + 11/08
8/98 + 9/98
8/01 + 9/01
12/08 + 1/09
Monthly Return + Next Month (Snow Tomorrow)
Mon
thly
Ret
urn
(Sno
w T
oday
)S&P 500 Index 1/98 to 12/09 Serial Correlation
Snow Today
Snow Tomorrow
Snow Today/Snow Tomorrow
Source: PSN/Informa Investment Solutions
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Negative Annual S&P Returns
Calendar Year
S&P 500 Index
Return
Probability of Event based on
Normal Distribution
1929 -8 111930 -25 1241931 -43 6,8291932 -8 101937 -35 9351940 -10 131941 -12 161946 -8 101953 -1 < 10-year event1957 -11 141962 -9 11
Calendar Year
S&P 500
Index Return
Probability of Event based on
Normal Distribution
1966 -10 131969 -8 111973 -15 241974 -26 1661977 -7 < 10-year event1981 -5 < 10-year event1990 -3 < 10-year event2000 -9 122001 -12 172002 -22 762008 -37 1,473???
Source: PSN/Informa Investment Solutions
Snow Today/Snow Tomorrow
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Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc – The Anatomy of Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index Declines 1/03/1928 to 6/29/2005
The Frequency of Market Declines
S&P 500 Declines
Occurences Per Year
Frequency Average
Probability of Decline Moving to Next Stage
-5% or more 3.4 Every 14 weeks 34%
-10% or more 1.1 Every Year 44%
-15% or more 0.5 Every 2 years 61%
-20% or more 0.3 Every 3 years N/A
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Correlation1/1998 to 10/2007 S&P 500
Barclay Aggregat
eML High
Yield REITSMSCI EAFE
MSCI Emerging Markets
DJ AIG Commodity
S&P 500 1.00 .18 .49 .41 .62 .58 -.02Barclay Aggregate 1.00 .28 .13 .06 -.05 .20
ML High Yield 1.00 .41 .36 .42 .01REITS 1.00 .28 .34 -.02
MSCI EAFE 1.00 .58 .05MSCI Emerging Markets 1.00 .11
DJ AIG Commodity 1.00Correlation10/2007 to
3/2009 S&P 500
Barclay Aggregat
eML High
Yield REITSMSCI EAFE
MSCI Emerging Markets
DJ AIG Commodity
S&P 500 1.00 .38 .73 .83 .91 .79 .47Barclay Aggregate 1.00 .37 .34 .52 .40 .42
ML High Yield 1.00 .68 .76 .80 .61REITS 1.00 .72 .60 .39
MSCI EAFE 1.00 .94 .61MSCI Emerging Markets 1.00 .66
DJ AIG Commodity 1.00Source: PSN/Informa Investment Solutions
Normal vs. Extreme Conditions
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CorrelationIncrease %
S&P 500
Barclay Aggregat
eML High
Yield REITSMSCI EAFE
MSCI Emerging Markets
DJ AIG Commodity
S&P 500 1 111% 49% 102% 47% 36% 4600%Barclay Aggregate 1 86% 323% 483% -420% 230%
ML High Yield 1 51% 128% 107% 2200%
REITS 1 143% 112% 6000%
MSCI EAFE 1 45% 760%
MSCI Emerging Markets 1 509%
DJ AIG Commodity 1
Percentage Increase in Correlation
1/1998 to 10/2007 compared to 10/2007 to 3/2009
Normal vs. Extreme Conditions
Source: PSN/Informa Investment Solutions
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Correlation of the S&P 500 vs. Other Asset Classes
Source: Ned Davis Research
Past
per
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ance
is n
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Monthly Data 1/31/1976 - 3/31/2010
Median = 0.024
Correlation of the S&P 500 vs. Other Asset Classes
76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Average of the 60-Month Correlation of Monthly Changes in theS&P 500 with the Monthly Changes of:
MSCI EAFE IndexMSCI Emerging Markets Index (starting 12/31/1992)
CRB IndexSpot Gold
Copper Perpetual Futures (starting 1/31/1984)10-Yr. T-Bond Yield3-Mo. T-Bill Yield
Euro (starting 4/30/1977)
10-0.14-0.12-0.10-0.08-0.06-0.04-0.020.000.020.040.060.080.100.120.140.160.180.200.220.240.260.280.300.320.340.360.380.400.420.440.460.48
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Modern Portfolio Theory’sCruel Joke
Good Times Bad Times
Low Correlation High Correlations
Low Volatility High Volatility
High Returns Low Returns
“Any plan conceived in moderation, must fail when
circumstances are set in extremes.” Prince Metternick
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What Is Your Plan?
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Investment Philosophy
Provide Superior Risk Adjusted Returns through a Disciplined Process Focused on Meaningful Diversification, Risk Management and Opportunistic Asset Allocation.
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Traditional Risk Management Tools
Fixed Income
Alternative Asset Classes
Tactical Management (forecasting)
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Innovative Risk Management Tools
Meaningful Diversification Significant alternative asset class
exposure through target allocations to specific commodities, currencies, precious metals and hedge strategies.
Opportunistic Core & Explore Asset Allocation
Core allocation for targeted beta exposure complimented by Explore allocations for targeted alpha opportunities.
Navigator Sentry Option Innovative institutional-level strategy
for portfolio protection that utilizes put options in an effort to prevent considerable portfolio losses due to severe market setbacks.
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Expanding the Efficient Frontier with Alternative
Asset ClassesAlternative Asset Classes serve as a powerful diversification agents in a portfolio and tend to result in lower portfolio volatility and improved risk-adjusted returns.
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Meaningful Diversification through Alternative Asset
Classes
Targeted Alternative ExposureCommoditiesCurrenciesReal Estate Hedge/Absolute Return StrategiesLong/Short OpportunitiesInverse StrategiesEquity and Fixed Income Special OpportunitiesSentry Strategy
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Innovative Risk Management Tools
Meaningful Diversification Significant alternative asset class
exposure through target allocations to specific commodities, currencies, precious metals and hedge strategies.
Opportunistic Core & Explore Asset Allocation
Core allocation for targeted beta exposure complimented by Explore allocations for targeted alpha opportunities.
Navigator Sentry Option Innovative institutional-level
strategy for portfolio protection that utilizes put options in an effort to prevent considerable portfolio losses due to severe market setbacks.
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What Is Core Structure?
Goal to Provide Stability in The Portfolio (Beta Exposure)Utilizes:
Institutional Separate Account Managers
Institutional Mutual Funds
Exchange Traded FundsCustomization
Active Core Passive Core
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What Is Explore Structure?
Goal to Provide Alpha - Excess ReturnConsists of ETFs Style ETFs – value/growth, small/mid/large cap
Sector ETFs – Energy, financials, healthcare, technology, etc
International ETFs – Europe, Asia, Latin America
Fixed income – US, international, municipal tax free, government securities, high yield, etc.
Alternative – commodities, real estate, currencies, options, hedge funds
ExploreAllocations
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Why Explore Structure?
Dynamic Quantitative Disciplined ProcessMajor Emphasis on Proven Relative Strength MethodologyUnemotional Actively Managed StrategyFlexibility is the key to AlphaMarket Direction Does Not MatterAvoid Areas of Disaster Financials, Home Builders, etc..
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Navigator Unified SolutionExplore Components
2009 2008 2 Year
Navigator U.S. Sector Explore 34.87 -39.67 -18.63
Navigator U.S. Style Explore 31.18 -35.50 -15.39
Navigator International Explore 43.11 -43.66 -19.37
Navigator Fixed Income Explore 41.32 4.14 47.17
Navigator Alternative 22.22 -19.39 -1.48S&P 500 with Dividends 26.45 -37.00 -20.34
Barclay Capital Governmentand Credit Bond Index 3.09 5.09 8.34
MSCI EAFE 31.63 -38.95 -19.64
Net of Fees. As of 12/31/2009
Navigator Unified Solutions results combine actual and hypothetical and do not represent individual client accounts. See important disclosure at the end of presentation.
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Why Core and Explore?
Multiple Methodologies to Work through All Market Environments FlexibilityBuilt in Opportunistic AllocationsTax-Aware StructureLower Tracking Error Possibility Less Unexpected Consequences
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How They Work Together
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Innovative Risk Management Tools
Meaningful Diversification Significant alternative asset class
exposure through target allocations to specific commodities, currencies, precious metals and hedge strategies.
Opportunistic Core & Explore Asset Allocation
Core allocation for targeted beta exposure complimented by Explore allocations for targeted alpha opportunities.
Navigator Sentry Option Innovative institutional-level
strategy for portfolio protection that utilizes put options in an effort to prevent considerable portfolio losses due to severe market setbacks.
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Protective Put Hedge Strategy
S&P 500
S&P 500 Put
Option
Down Market
S&P 500
S&P 500 Put
Option
Up Market
Consistent Negative Correlation
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Protective Put Strategy
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Navigator Sentry Objectives
Reduce equity volatilityPrevent large portfolio losses through systematic portfolio put option protectionProvide consistent negative correlation in all market environmentsProvide systematic risk management without forecasting or market timing influenceProvide confidence in the expected outcome in all market environmentsProvide continuous protection from event driven declines (i.e. natural disaster, terrorist attacks)
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S&P 500 index puts9 to 18 months in duration5 to 10% out of the moneyConsistently applied to cover 100% of equity exposure in a portfolioTargeting 3 to 7% allocation over market cycle
Navigator Sentry Implementation
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Sentry Put Trades
Date Action Position Gain/Loss
02/06/08 SellBuy
June ’08 1325*Dec. ’08 1300 24.13%
06/27/08 SellBuy
Dec. ’08 1300Mar. ’09 1275 -13.50%
09/15/08 SellBuy
Mar. ’09 1275Dec. ’09 1200 13.73%
10/06/08 SellBuy
Dec. ’09 1200Dec. ’09 1100 98.21%
10/10/08SellBuy
Dec. ’09 1100Dec. ’09 900 48.32%
01/15/09 SellBuy
Dec. ’09 900Dec. ’09 800 25.72%
03/05/09 SellBuy
Dec. ’09 800June ’10 700 -0.001%
Cumulative Return 351.33%
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Level 5 with Sentry vs. 60/40
Since Inception Versus S&P 500
Portfolio Beta
Level 5 with Sentry .4960% S&P 500 /40% BCGC .58
What’s the cost of 40% in Bonds compared to 10% in Sentry?
Navigator Unified Solutions results combine actual and hypothetical and do not represent individual client accounts. See important disclosure at the end of presentation.
Composite Active Core Portfolios. Net of Fees. As of 3/31/2010
*Inception Date 10/1/2000.
UpsideCapture
67.6
63.3
DownsideCapture
35.3
55.9
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Navigator Unified SolutionPortfolio Performance
2009 2008 2 Year
Level I with Sentry 19.59 -3.50 15.40
Level II with Sentry 16.91 -14.38 0.10
Level III with Sentry 19.75 -19.46 -3.55
Level IV with Sentry 19.83 -22.75 -7.43
Level V with Sentry 21.16 -23.45 -7.25
S&P 500 with Dividends 26.45 -37.00 -20.34
Composite Active Core Portfolios. Net of Fees. As of 12/31/2009
*Inception Date 10/1/2000.
Navigator Unified Solutions results combine actual and hypothetical and do not represent individual client accounts. See important disclosure at the end of presentation.
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Navigator Unified SolutionPortfolio Performance
1Year
3Year
5Year
SinceIncep.
StdDev* Beta* Alpha*
Level I with Sentry 22.76 6.36 6.07 8.37 7.74 0.00 6.03
Level II with Sentry 23.24 2.55 4.72 6.34 7.71 0.19 4.30
Level III with Sentry 27.01
1.81
5.01 6.35 9.98 0.49 4.81
Level IV with Sentry 27.20 0.73 4.51 6.32 11.06 0.53 4.94
Level V with Sentry 27.21 0.17 3.95 5.66 10.55 0.49 4.22
S&P 500 with Dividends 49.74
-4.17
1.90 -0.31 18.09 1.00 0.00
Composite Active Core Portfolios. Net of Fees. As of 3/31/2010
*Inception Date 10/1/2000.
Navigator Unified Solutions results combine actual and hypothetical and do not represent individual client accounts. See important disclosure at the end of presentation.
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Navigator Unified SolutionPortfolio Performance
1Year
3Year
5Year
SinceIncep.
StdDev* Beta* Alpha*
Level I with Sentry 22.76 6.36 6.07 8.37 7.74 0.00 6.03
Level II with Sentry 23.24 2.55 4.72 6.34 7.71 0.19 4.30
Level III with Sentry 27.01 1.81 5.01 6.35 9.98 0.49 4.81
Level IV with Sentry 27.20 0.73 4.51 6.32 11.06 0.53 4.94
Level V with Sentry 27.21 0.17 3.95 5.66 10.55 0.49 4.22
S&P 500 with Dividends 49.74
-4.17
1.90 -0.31 18.09 1.00 0.00
Composite Active Core Portfolios. Net of Fees. As of 3/31/2010
*Inception Date 10/1/2000.
Navigator Unified Solutions results combine actual and hypothetical and do not represent individual client accounts. See important disclosure at the end of presentation.
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Navigator Unified SolutionPortfolio Performance
Upside Capture
Downside Capture
SharpeRatio
Level I with Sentry 31.08 -26.95 0.77
Level II with Sentry 42.28 2.99 0.51
Level III with Sentry 72.06 35.04 0.40
Level IV with Sentry 76.48 39.58 0.36
Level V with Sentry 67.63 35.34 0.31
S&P 500 with dividends 100.00 100.00 -0.15
Composite Active Core Portfolios. Net of Fees. As of 3/31/2010
*Inception Date 10/1/2000.
Navigator Unified Solutions results combine actual and hypothetical and do not represent individual client accounts. See important disclosure at the end of presentation.
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Winning by Not Losing
Fund Name10/9/2007 to 12/31/2009
Approx %Gain Neededto Recapture
Loss
Oppenheimer Cap. Appr. (OPTFX) -24.18 32%T-Rowe Price Large-Cap Value (TRVLX) -19.23 24%American Funds New World (NEWFX) -13.22 15%American Gr. Fund of America (AGTHX) -18.53 23%
Level 3 with Sentry -1.12 1%
Level 4 with Sentry -4.80 5%
ETF Explore with Sentry -5.93 6%
S&P 500 Index -20.87 26%
Source: Morningstar for Funds. See Disclosure for CCMG Portfolios
Net of fees. Actual Performance results. See important disclosures at end of presentation.
10/9/2007 to 3/31/2010
Navigator Unified Solutions results combine actual and hypothetical and do not represent individual client accounts. See important disclosure at the end of presentation.
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$1,789,300
$970,943
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
10/1/00 3Q-01 3Q-02 3Q-03 3Q-04 3Q-05 3Q-06 3Q-07 3Q-08 3Q-09
14.19% gain/year for 5 years required for S&P 500 to catch up to the Sentry portfolio today
Navigator Unified Solutions Accumulation Phase
Avg. Annual Beta Std Dev
Level IV with Sentry 6.32% 0.53 11.06S&P 500 with Dividends -0.31% 1.00 18.09
Navigator Unified Solutions results combine actual and hypothetical and do not represent individual client accounts. See important disclosure at the end of presentation.
Composite Active Core Portfolios. Net of Fees. As of 3/31/2010
*Inception Date 10/1/2000.
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$914,788
$496,399
$250,000
$500,000
$750,000
$1,000,000
$1,250,000
$1,500,000
10/1/00 3Q-01 3Q-02 3Q-03 3Q-04 3Q-05 3Q-06 3Q-07 3Q-08 3Q-09
Navigator Unified Soultion Level IV withSentry with 6% Distribution
S&P 500 with 6% Distribution
15.81% gain/year for 5 years required for S&P
500 with 6% Distribution to catch up to the Sentry portfolio
today
Navigator Unified Solutions Distribution Phase
$535,755 Withdrawn
$330,573Withdrawn
Level IV with Sentry with 6% DistributionS&P 500 with Dividends with 6% Distribution
Navigator Unified Solutions results combine actual and hypothetical and do not represent individual client accounts. See important disclosure at the end of presentation.
Composite Active Core Portfolios. Net of Fees. As of 3/31/2010
*Inception Date 10/1/2000.
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Prospect Questions
What are you or your current advisor doing to
manage risk?How has that worked for
you?
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What Are Clients Thinking?
How can you help me prevent this from happening again?How can I recapture some of these losses without taking the full risk of equity exposure?
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What Are Advisors Thinking?
How can I get my clients/ prospects off the sidelines?
How can I protect my revenue stream against
future market downturns?
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DisclosureThe performance for the above Navigator Unified Solution Portfolios combines actual composite results with hypothetical results as described below. Actual Navigator Unified Solutions Portfolio performance is calculated using an asset weighted average performance of all actual, fully discretionary accounts under management within a specified Level, including those accounts no longer with the firm. All dividends and interest income is re-invested. Within the specified Level, account performance is calculated according to industry standards using the daily valuation methodology. A complete list and description of assets comprising the composites will be furnished upon request.
The hypothetical performance was calculated by compiling the actual performance of a static group of sub-advisors, mutual funds, and exchange traded funds in a target allocation for the period of 10/1/2000 through the below inception dates. Portfolio allocations were rebalanced annually to target allocation. In certain cases the advisor’s performance is both model and hypothetical. The time period commencing 10/01/00 has been selected by Clark Capital in its sole discretion as it is the earliest common date that data is available for the sub-advisors, mutual funds, exchange traded funds and which coincides with the advisor’s models. Performance results will vary for other periods.
The inception dates of Navigator Unified Portfolios Portfolio composites are as follows: 10/1/07 - Level III, Level III with Sentry, Level IV, Level IV with Sentry, and Level V; 12/31/07 - Level II and Level V with Sentry; 4/1/08 - Level I ; 7/1/08 - Level II Sentry
Hypothetical results do not represent actual trading in client accounts nor do they reflect client-specific activities such as contributions, withdrawals or restrictions. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, such results may not reflect the impact that material economic and market factors might have had if accounts had actually been managed by Clark Capital during the entire period portrayed. Neither past actual nor hypothetical performance guarantees future results. Clients should not rely solely on this performance or any other performance illustrations when making investment decisions. The Sentry Strategy allocation cannot guarantee against market loss, but has the potential to limit risk. It is possible that your investment, when redeemed, may be less than the original amount invested. Actual client results may differ materially.
S&P 500 index performance was obtained from Bloomberg. It is not possible to make a direct investment in any particular index. Index returns do not reflect any fee deductions and include the re-investment of dividends. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged market capitalization weighted index of 500 common stocks chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation to represent U.S. equity performance. It represents approximately 75% of the U.S. equities market.
Performance data for the portfolios reflect the maximum Investment Advisory Fee from the below table and the maximum Referring Investment Consultant Fee of 1.25%, debited quarterly. Actual client fees may be lower than fees used in this presentation. All dividends and interest income is re-invested. The Referring Investment Consultant can charge between 0% and 1.25%. If a lower Referring Investment Consultant Fee were reflected in the performance data, returns would be higher. Actual fees also may differ from the fees used in this presentation depending upon account size, investments and agreement with client. See Clark Capital’s Schedule H for Navigator Unified Solutions for a full description of management fees. See Clark Capital's ADV Schedule H for additional information about management fees.