68
1 Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment

Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    1

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

1

Clallam County and City of Sequim

Assessment

Page 2: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Cascadia and Its Impact: A Clallam County View

• What is the threat?

• How dangerous is it?

• What will it do to us?

Speaker – Dan Orr Asst. Chief - Clallam County Fire District 3

Speaker – Dan Orr Asst. Chief - Clallam County Fire District 3

Page 3: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Contributors to this presentation

Emergency Management

Division

Emergency Management

Makah

State and Federal Tribes

Cities and Utilities Universities

Fire, NGOs & Co. EMD

Page 4: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

CLALLAM COUNTY DEMOGRAPHICS

County Statistics Population: 72,250 Population Under 5: 3,323 Population Over 65: 18,785 Total Housing Units: 35,602 % Population Under Poverty Line: 14.6% % Population Non-English Speakers: 5.4%

Clallam County is 2,671 square miles (1,738 is land; 932 is water.)

Clallam County contains three cities: Port Angeles which is the county seat, Sequim, and Forks.

Major shopping areas are in Sequim and Port Angeles (Costco, Home Depot, Wal-Mart and food outlets, etc.)

There are four tribes (Quileute, Makah, Lower Elwha Clallam, and Jamestown S’Klallam)

Clallam County’s connections are via Hwy 101 and to Victoria, Canada via Ferry

Most of the population lives between Port Angeles (West) and Sequim Bay (East)

Cascadia Rising Mass Care Assumptions People in Need of Short-term Sheltering: 18,000 People in Need of Basic Commodity: 72,000 Note: Population can increase by over 50,000 in tourist season

County Description

Population Center

Page 5: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Ring of Fire The Ring of Fire accounts

for 90% of all earthquakes, and 81% of the world’s

largest earthquakes

Subduction zones are shown in red

The CSZ fault line is part of the Ring of Fire

The CSZ is the only

significant fault line on the Ring of Fire without a

major quake in the last 50 years (see blue stars)

The last event on the CSZ was Jan. 26, 1700 -- over

317 years ago.

Page 6: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Seattle Fault

South Whidbey Lake Creek/Boundary

4 Key Earthquake Faults for Clallam Co

MM Intensity IV Slight V Moderate VI Strong VII Very Strong VIII Severe IX Extreme

Page 7: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Exercise Scenario:

Based on FEMA modeling studies the exercise used the following assumptions:

CSZ 9.0 Richter M Earthquake & Tsunami

Modelled impacts: • Direct Impact to 3 States and

British Columbia • Complete rupture of the 800-

mile Fault Line • Impacts affecting over 140,000

square miles • Ground shaking lasts up to 5

minutes • Numerous aftershocks with

several of M7.0+ • Modelled estimates: 1,000

fatalities from earthquake; 12,000 fatalities from tsunami; 30,000 injured.

Cascadia Rising 2016 Exercise

• Landslides • Avalanches • Aftershocks • Aftershock Tsunamis • Propane Leaks • Fires • River Flooding • Hazardous Materials • Contamination • Lack of Food & Water • Disease • Exposure

What it Didn’t Address HITRAC*

*DHS ‘s Homeland Infrastructure Threat and Risk Analysis Center

Page 8: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Cat

Dis Destr

9.0 Richter

Magnitude Quake will be

100 times more powerful than

the 6.8 Nisqually earthquake in

2001.

Page 9: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Earthquake Aftershocks

In the first week of a 9.0 Richter Scale Earthquake there will be one 8.0+ and ten 7.0+ Aftershocks

Source: USGS

Page 10: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

• There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013) and 10% chance of 9.0 or greater Quake on the fault (total risk 43% in 50 years, starting in 2016).

• There have been 19 Quakes of 9+; 22 Quakes of 8+ over last 10,000 years (average every 200 years) • The chance of earthquake increases as other faults are considered particularly Lake Creek Boundary. • Although its impossible at this time to give absolute definitive risk due to where the fault breaks we

believe that combining the risk of other area faults and a CSZ event raises Clallam County risk to higher than 50% in the next 50 years with some level of damage.

Chance of Earthquake

Page 11: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Nisqually 6.8

2000 x Nisqually

Page 12: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

unknown completely destroyed

HIGHWAYS AND BRIDGES

There will be no surviving ground routes to the county.

80 % of the roads will suffer pavement failures over 3”

23% of coastal area bridges will be out of service for days.

50 % of Coastal bridges will be damaged and unusable.

HITRAC STUDY FEMA

Our Assessement RED/Yellow

Our Assessment ALL Bridges are RED in

Clallam

Page 13: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Christchurch New Zealand November 14, 2016 7.8 Magnitude Quake

24” Displacement Vertical with 4-6 foot separation of the roadway

HIGHWAY IMPACT Damage Caused by Earthquakes

12” Displacement Vertical with 1-2 foot separation of the roadway

Page 14: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

HIGHWAY IMPACT Landslides Caused by Earthquakes

Some Areas at Risk: • Morse Creek • Highway 112 • Highway 113 • Lake Crescent • Lake Sutherland • 101 East of Gardiner • Blyn • Black Diamond • Tumwater Truck • Hill Street • South Valley St • Lee Creek • Peabody Creek • Ennis Creek • Elwha River Valley • Hoko-Ozette Road

Hwy 112 - 2009

Page 15: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

UTILITIES

ELECTRICAL GRID 100% will be severely damaged or destroyed.

It may take up to 1 year to restore service to 90 % of the current demand.

WATER SANITARY SEWER 100% will be severely damaged or destroyed. 67% of water may be restored as power is repaired. 33% must be rebuilt.

44% of sewer may be restored as power is repaired. 56% must be rebuilt.

After the CSZE, the county will experience phone, cell phone, internet, radio and TV outages lasting for months.

It may take days or weeks to restore 33% of coastal communications facilities.

67% may need to be replaced.

COMMUNICATIONS

unknown completely destroyed

Page 16: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

HOSPITALS

unknown completely destroyed

• There are 112 hospitals in the affected area.

• 36% suffer severe damage, are unusable, and will likely be completely offline.

• 17% suffer moderate damage and are only assumed capable of 50% normal capacity.

• Total reduction is assumed to be 45% of total hospital capacity.

• 47% suffer slight damage and are able to continue to operate at capacity.

• The facilities nearer to the epicenter suffer most significant damage resulting in virtually no hospital capacity west of the I-5 corridor.

These numbers discuss STRUCTURAL capacity, not patient capacity, which is further reduced due to lack of electricity, potable water, sanitation, etc.

Page 17: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

SENIOR LIVING FACILITITIES

unknown completely destroyed

HITRAC STUDY FEMA

Page 18: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

SCHOOLS

• There are approximately 2,286 schools in the affected area.

• Nearly 100% of schools West of the I-5 corridor suffer complete or severe damage, and are likely unusable.

• Schools along the I-5 corridor suffer a wide range of damage from complete to slight.

• Schools nearest the epicenter generally suffer the most significant damage resulting in limited shelter capacity* West of the I-5 corridor.

unknown completely destroyed

*You should expect a need to shelter 10-15% of your population or 7-12K in

Clallam Co.

Page 19: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

SCHOOLS

Page 20: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)
Page 21: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Bridges over wide rivers and steep ravines are key factors in isolating areas in Clallam. Here are two of the bridges over the Elwha river which isolates Eastern and Central Clallam from the Western parts of the county

Lower Elwha Bridge U.S. 101 Elwha Bridge

Page 22: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

County’s Strategy: Micro-islands (Divisions) are grouped into Command Areas based on the following hubs: Forks,

Clallam Bay/Neah Bay, Joyce, Port Angeles, & Sequim

JEFFCO HOH

1 3

2

5 4

Page 23: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Note: There is another 4K from Jefferson Co. supported by Fire Districts 1/6 (1K) and 3 (3K) and any tourists in the county

Washington State Emergency Management Division

Page 24: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

CLALLAM COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AREA COMMAND CONCEPT

Washington State EOC Camp Murray

Clallam County EOC Port Angeles

Jefferson County EOC Port Townsend

Kitsap County EOC Port Orchard

Area Command 1 Clallam Bay (F*)

Area Command 2 Forks (H*)

Area Command 4 Port Angeles City

Neah Bay (A) Hoko-Ozette (B) Shipwreck Point (E) Pysht (I)

La Push (C) Beaver (G) Bear Creek (J) West Jeffco, Hoh (D)

Joyce (L) Pillar Point (K) Indian Valley (M)

PA West (N) PA East (O)

Sequim (S) Deer Park (P) R Corner (Q) Carlsborg R) Diamond Point (T)

MIC

RO-IS

LAN

D N

AME

(WIT

H N

IMS

DIVI

SIO

N D

ESIG

NAT

ION

) RE

PORT

S TO

ARE

A CO

MM

AND-

- -

NOTE: NAMED AREA COMMANDS WITH AN ALPHA DESIGNATION AND ASTERISK (i.e., “Clallam Bay (F*)” = A STAND ALONE MICRO-ISLAND THAT IS ALSO DESIGNATED AS AN AREA COMMAND CENTER).

AREA

CO

MM

ANDS

(1

THR

U 5

) REP

ORT

TO

CCE

OC

COU

NTY

EO

Cs

REPO

RT T

O

STAT

E EO

C

Washington State Emergency Management Division

Page 25: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

• Earthquake itself – structural and debris strikes 800-3,000

• Tsunami - Wave impact on coastal areas 1,000-5,000

• Entrapment & Isolation (1.5x-3x initial deaths) 2,700-5,500

• Fragile Population or Special Needs (Oxygen etc.) 200-4,000 (Kitsap Public Health Study Medical Dependent15.4K - May 2015 25% High End Loss)

• Food, Water, Exposure (range of 2%-9% of population) 1,400-6,500 Includes Disease and Medical Injured that die

Range of Losses 6,100-24,000

Low HiTrac*

Loss of Life Scenario Ranges

Preliminary Estimate of Loss of Life in Clallam County

*Consistent w/10K dead scenario region wide

1st 2

4 H

ours

1st

Wee

k W

eeks

2-8

Cascadia will cause 3 waves of losses

Based on County Populations of 75,000 (above higher with tourists)

Achieving the lower numbers requires overcoming challenges

Page 26: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Rescue Skills Needed

Entombed

Void Space Non-Structural

Entrapment

Non-Structural Entrapment

Injured NOT Trapped

USAR Teams

Emergency Services Provider

CERT Teams

Self-Rescue or Neighbor Map Your Neighborhood

5%

15%

30%

50%

State or Federal USAR

Local Fire/Rescue Engine Company

Challenge for Clallam County is over 35,000 Households and all commercial and public buildings will need to be searched for survivors

1750 Households

5250 Households

10,500 Households

Example of Loss of Life Challenge Search and Rescue Starting on Day 1

Type IV SAR Teams 11 Eastern Clallam + 4 Forming

1 Joyce

Page 27: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

The Golden Day Entrapped Victim Survival Rate

30 Minutes 99.3%

1 Day 81.0%

2 Days 36.7%

3 Days 33.7%

4 Days 19.0%

5 Days 7.4%

Time Until Rescue Survival Rate

Creation and deployment of Mission Ready CERT units will be critical in saving lives.* CERTs’ primary mission after an earthquake will be Damage Assessment & SAR.

*Will impact entrapment, isolation, and fragile population numbers

• You can survive:

– 3 minutes without AIR

– 3 hours without SHELTER from extreme weather

– 3 days without WATER

– 3 weeks without FOOD

The Rule of 3’s

Page 28: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Speaker – Dan Orr Asst. Chief - Clallam County Fire District 3

Speaker – Jim Buck Former State Representative Winner 2018 Governor’s Service Volunteer - Emergency Management

“Ground Truth” • Case Study of

Sequim

– What will it look like – Micro-island

boundaries – Evacuation routes for

the tsunami – Hazards

Page 29: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Area Command 5: Ground Truth – Sequim

Moderate to High Liquefaction

Red Dots = Destroyed/damaged Bridges

Note: Tsunami Zone shown in yellow at 20 Feet Tsunami @ 40’ Dark Blue Line

Page 30: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)
Page 31: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Sequim Dungeness Map

City Hall

Woodcock

Sequ

im-D

unge

ness

Cays

Ca

rlsbo

rg

Old Olympic

Liquefaction

Page 32: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)
Page 33: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

33

Page 34: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Eva

cuat

ion

#1

Eva

cuat

ion

#2

Eva

cuat

ion

#3

Evacuate across East Anderson Road Bridge to Twin Views or move to Brigadoon

Blvd.

Evacuation Routes for 3 Crabs Road

New

Roa

d

Eva

cuat

e to

E

. And

erso

n Eva

cuat

e to

B

rigad

oon

N

Page 35: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

We will show you

from east to west on the islands

North

South

101 is dividing line

Highway 101 , Old Olympic and Washington Street are viewed as the Key East to West Roads. Sequim-Dungeness, Carlsborg, Kitchen-Dick, Taylor Cut-Off, O’Brien, Lewis, Deer Park, and Barr are viewed as Key North to South Roads

Slide 1

Slide 2

Slide 3

Slide 4

Slide 5

Slide 6

Slide 7

Slide 8

Page 36: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)
Page 37: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Tsunami

Landslides

Slide 1

Page 38: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Tsunami

Landslides

Slide 2

Page 39: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Tsunami

Landslides

Liquefaction Zone

Bridges/Overpass

Tsunami Zones in the Port Washington Area and Blyn (Bright Yellow). Liquefaction ends south of 101 as you hit the hills. Bright Red Areas are potential landslide zones.

Slide 3

Page 40: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Liquefaction Only

Liquefaction & Tsunami Zone

Bridges

Bridges are expected to fail on the Dungeness River and Overpass on 101 in Sequim. All of Sequim is part of the alluvial plain subject to liquefaction. The area North of the Blue Dotted Line is both Liquefaction and Tsunami zone.

Slide 4

Page 41: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Area Command 5, Division R, Carlsborg

Micro-island, Subdivision 1, Carlsborg South of HWY 101, Dungeness

River to McDonald Creek

Liquefaction

Bridges

Bridges are expected to fail at Marriotti Creek and on the Dungeness River on 101. Yellow area is liquefaction zone

Slide 5

Page 42: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Area Command 5, Division R, Carlsborg Micro-island, Subdivision 1, Carlsborg

North of HWY 101, Dungeness River to

McDonald Creek

Landslides

Bridges Bridges are expected to fail at McDonald Creek and on the Dungeness River, McDonald Creek on both 101 and Old Olympic. Bluffs along the coast are a potential landslide zone (shown in green). Yellow area is liquefaction zone

Slide 6

Page 43: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Landslides

Bridges

Bridges are expected to fail at Siebert’s Creek and McDonald Creek on both 101 and Old Olympic. Bluffs along the coast are a potential landslide zone (shown in green)

Slide 7

Page 44: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Landslides

Bridges

Morse Creek represents a major landslide barrier (Shown in green). The bridge on 101 at Morris Creek, Siebert’s Creek at both Old Olympic and 101 are also expected to fail. There is also a liquefaction area at the Washington State Patrol area.

Slide 8

Page 45: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Speaker – Dan Orr Asst. Chief - Clallam County Fire District 3

Speaker – Blaine Zechenelly Clallam County Fire District 3 Disaster Planner 2018 Governor’s Service Volunteer Honorable Mention - Citizen’s Corp/CERT CCFD #3

“Visual Look and our Response” • Alaska 1964 • Our Response

– National Guard Plan – Air Bridge – Timeline – Self Help – Steps Needed by

Government to Respond

– Final Thoughts

Page 46: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Alaska Quake of 1964

• 9.2 Richter Magnitude • 139 Deaths 5:36PM on Good Friday • Lasting 4 Minutes and 38 Seconds • Most Powerful in North American History

- 11 After shocks Day 1 6.0+

The 1964 Quake is the only event we have to compare the damage expected in 9.0 Cascadia

Page 47: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Seiche Tsunami

Alaska Quake of 1964

Anchorage 75 Miles Epi-Center No Direct Tsunami

No Direct Tsunami; the tsunami was caused by the sloshing of water due

to shaking in Cook Inlet Port Angeles is ~70 Miles from the Coast ~120-130 miles from Fault Line A

Page 48: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Tsunami Action Pushed Material Inland & Fire

Breaks Out

Alaska Quake of 1964

Page 49: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

• Shops Dropped 8 Feet • Hillside Behind Hospital

Collapsed • Downtown homes and

businesses knocked off their foundations

Alaska Quake of 1964

Page 50: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Commercial Damage Left : 4 Seasons Apartments

Right : McKinley Tower Bottom : Roads Collasped

Alaska Quake of 1964

Page 51: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Turnagain Neighborhood Suffers a Landslide

Alaska Quake of 1964

Page 52: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Road through the center of Turnagain Neighborhood. Note the Fire Hydrant at the side of the road. 3” or

greater road displacement .

Alaska Quake of 1964

Page 53: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Bridge & Rail System Suffer Displacement

Alaska Quake of 1964

Page 54: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Road System Suffer Displacement

Alaska Quake of 1964

Copalis River, WA 2,000+ miles away

Page 55: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

How well will my house do? Portland study said 2 out 3 should be undamaged even in wet conditions • The answer depends on a lot of factors

– Year the house was built and code it was built under

– Implementation of Codes often lag behind by a few years

– Homes built to the 2006 code are generally at the latest codes for earthquake and will do well

– Homes built to the 1976 code have the first earthquake protection features

– Solid strapping to the foundation is the key

– Consult with a structural engineer or contractor who specializes in this field

Page 56: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

IS HELP COMING? How will help arrive? When will it get here?

Who will it be?

The State & County Plan

Page 57: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Clallam County efforts must focus on the first 4 weeks of the emergency. Consideration of weather also effects arrival of aid and shelter needs.

H + 7 Days

= Arrival Sufficent Outside Resources

H +21 Days

Hazardous Materials

Planning

Air Control Communications

Page 58: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Tier 1 Airbase – 747/C-5A capable with ground support and logistics facilities (SEATAC)

Tier 2 Airbase – C17/C130 capable with ground support and logistics facilities (Fairchild and Quillayute NAS)

Tier 3 Airbase – Small plane and helicopter capable (Sekiu, Sequim, Forks, Port Townsend and Diamond Point)

Tier 4 – Helicopter capable (a helicopter landing zone)

The Tiered Air Base Concept Supplies will flow through a Tiered Airbase Distribution System

Given the loss of roads/bridges, an air-bridge is the fastest way to bring help. It is our job to have the airfields ready to receive aircraft and distribute the materials

The Air Bridge: Our Lifeline to feed 8 Million Northwesterners

Lesson Learned Cascadia: Short of Aircraft

Page 59: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Delhur Construction Olympic Electric

Lincoln Welding

Hoch Construction

PUD Yard

Clallam Transit

City of PA Yard

WSDOT Yard

Clallam County Maint Yard

Bruch & Bruch Construction

Lakeside Industries Atlas Trucking

Angeles Concrete

AIR/SEA Building as EOC/ICS BASE and shelter area

Tier 2 airport with laydown areas

POSSIBLE HELI-BASE

Responder base camps Mobilization sites

Possible Temp Shelters in hangers and warehouses

Juvenile Facility PUD Pole Yard

William F. Fairchild Airport as Emergency Operations Base makes good sense based on the number of assets around the airport and soil quality in the area.

Clallam County Area Command 4 Port Angeles Detailed Ground Truth

The Key for Port Angeles’s citizens survival is the airport which can land large cargo planes as road re-supply is virtually impossible for at least 90-180 days*

*Marine Re-supply more likely than roads

Page 60: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Maritime Response U.S. Marine Expeditionary Force (1st MEF)

60

Washington’s Plan for Maritime Support 1. Will land at Two locations

1. The force landing at Grays Harbor will support the local community. Route Clearance operations will focus on opening land lines of communication in the area.

2. The force landing at Port Angeles will support the population. Route Clearance operations will focus on opening land lines of communication in the area.

2. Each location will require 1. Medical 2. Motor Transport 3. Bulk Fuel 4. Route Clearance 5. Water Purification

SURGICAL

PURE

SURGICAL

PURE

BULK FUEL

BULK FUEL

H&S (-)

23

23

(-)

We will be working with Third Fleet to assess beachheads & pushing to move their landing site to Sequim Bay out of the debris zone and closer to where the population is (75K between Eastern Clallam & Jefferson) until Port Angeles harbor

can be cleared and road out can be established to Eastern Clallam and Jefferson.

Page 61: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Establish Life Line Transportation Corridors

Key to our survival is re-establishing an emergency road network

• Done first within area commands • Done second between Area Commands • Done using public works yards & private

construction/loggers

Road Network will not be for the public

• Designed for heavy trucks to move supplies • Log Bridges will be key to ford waterways • Dirt & Gravel Quality – Low Speed • Priority will be key roads to distribute supplies

– 101; 112; 113; Old Olympic; Diamond Point, Lauridsen, La Push, Piedmont, etc.

Supplies will be distributed to drop points in neighborhoods

Key Public Works Yards Sequim Area Command - WSDOT at Gardiner; County at Sequim; City of Sequim; PUD at Carlsborg; State Patrol; JKT Excavation Port Angeles Area Command - County at Port Angeles; City of Port Angeles; Port of Port Angeles; WSDOT at Port Angeles, PUD Joyce Area Command – No Public Works Yards Neah Bay/Clallam Bay Area Command – WSDOT at Seiku; County at Seiku, Makah Tribe Forks Area Command – WSDOT at Forks, DNR at Forks, County at Forks, Quileute Tribe, City of Forks, PUD All Area Commands – Private Construction and Logging Firms

Page 62: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

How Can Citizens Help? Citizens must help in the life safety aspects of the plan for the community.

Remember there is only 1 Emergency Responder (Local, State & Federal) per 180 people in Clallam county and only 1/3 are on duty.

Do Not add to the burden for limited supplies -

• Stock 30 Days of Food and Water. • Keep 30 Days of Medications. • Keep 30 Days of Pet Food. • Have a little extra for family, neighbors & friends. • Shelter in your own house and have supplies to repair it so you can.

Be Self-Reliant

Join MYN - (Post HELP/OK Sign)

• Help in the damage assessment in your neighborhood. Check and Assist your neighbors.

• Secure utilities. • Provide First Aid to those that need it. • 90 Minute Course- bonds neighborhood together in a disaster

Volunteer

• Join CERTs, save lives and support Search and Rescue. • Join VIPs and assist Law Enforcement in their duties. • Join Church members and/or Red Cross and help with shelters. • Join ARES as a HAM radio operator to help with Command Center

Communications. • Volunteer at Volunteer Reception Center (Spontaneous volunteer) to help

where needed

Volunteer CERTs, VIPs, Shelters

Communication

Be Part of a “Map Your Neighborhood”

Deg

ree

of In

volv

emen

t Local Help

Page 63: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

What is Map Your Neighborhood? Premise: In a disaster

• The neighbors living around you are your most immediate source of help.

• Traditional 9-1-1 responders (police, fire, medical, and utility) are quickly overwhelmed by demand.

Major Goal of Map Your Neighborhood: To prepare neighborhoods • Generally 15-20 homes in urban areas, 6-7 in rural areas

• Be self-reliant during the first hours.

Objectives accomplished during a 90-minute neighborhood meeting: 1. Learn the 9 Steps to take immediately following a disaster to secure your home and protect your neighborhood. 2. Identify the skills and equipment each neighbor has that are useful in an effective disaster response. 3. Create a Neighborhood Map showing the locations of each natural gas meter and propane tank (about 67% of house fires following disasters are caused by leaking gas); and the locations of each neighbor who may need extra help in a disaster, such as the elderly, persons with disabilities, or children who are home alone during certain times of the day. 4. Pick locations for a Neighborhood Gathering Site and Neighborhood Care Center.

Page 64: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

About CERT

The Federal Emergency Management Agency, using the model created by the Los Angeles City Fire Department, began promoting nationwide use of the Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) concept in 1994.

CERT Benefits Emergencies occur in our communities every day and a large-scale disaster (such as an earthquake) will quickly overwhelm local professional responders. CERT provides a bridge to these professional responders.

CERT training provides practical skills necessary to: • Safely assist family, and neighbors • Become better prepared for disaster • Support professional responders, as directed, once they arrive at the scene

Mission: Safely respond to natural disasters/emergencies, conduct timely, safe and effective Search and Rescue Operations. Their knowledge and skills will assist in the delivery of life saving activities in the community during a disaster.

Area Command 5, Clallam County Clallam County Fire District 3/Sequim

About CERT and its benefits Local Help

Page 65: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Basic CERT Training (Academy) 24 Hours of Training covering: • Disaster Preparedness • Fire Safety • Disaster Medical Operations — triage and Treating Life Threatening Injuries • Disaster Medical Operations-Assessment, Treatment, and Hygiene • Light Search and Rescue • Team Organization • Disaster Psychology • Terrorism and CERT • Course Review and Disaster Simulation

CERT Training

We go beyond Basic in Clallam Fire Districts 3 & 4*: • Train to meet a Type IV Urban Search & Rescue Team • Train monthly • Responsible for their neighborhood search area • Report as a unit to the Fire Department • Integrated into the Emergency Response

Local Help

*Active Teams are only in Fire District #3 Gardiner to Deer Park and Fire District #4 Joyce – None in PA

Page 66: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Local Government’s Playbook for Disaster Response

Time Line

Page 67: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Conclusions • This briefing is based on the work of the best minds in this country

(private, local, state, and federal)

• We are not here to be alarmists, but as realists – The material presented is based on well vetted science not available even 5 years

ago and provides a solid and realistic picture – This information dramatically changes our threat profile from a “2” on a scale of 10,

to a “10+” so historical approaches will not work. – Cascadia is the 2nd greatest concern for the Federal Government, exceeding

anything associated with California Earthquakes or Gulf Hurricanes – We have begun these difficult conversations with the communities in Eastern

Clallam, Joyce, Sequim and Forks. Now we are starting with Port Angeles. • Over 3,500 citizens have attended presentations of Cascadia and

preparedness in theses areas by the three of us in the last 18 months • Their overwhelming response to us was “tell us the whole truth no matter

how bad and we will figure out how to solve it” • Our communities are finding solutions which we can share with you at a later

briefing

Page 68: Clallam County and City of Sequim Assessment Outreach/CERT Program... · • There is a 33% chance of Casadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Quake of 8.0 in the next 50 years (HiTrac 2013)

Final Thoughts

• Everyone will be looking to the government to solve their needs • City Council & County owns meeting the needs of citizens until

help arrives • 30 or more days

• Public employees will need to assume leadership roles • Citizens will also need to respond and volunteer • We all need to think outside of the box to minimize casualties

and loss of property

• Cascadia requires a “Call to Action” for all of us as this will happen – “It’s Just a Matter of Time”