CKC Kirkland TIGER Benefit-Cost Analysis · Net Present Values (2016-2057) 7% Discount Rate 3% Discount Rate Construction Costs $ (12,569,516) $ (13,889,088)

Net Present Values (2016-2057) 7% Discount Rate 3% Discount Rate

Construction Costs (12,569,516)$ (13,889,088)$

Maintenance Costs (115,291)$ (231,812)$

Total Costs (12,681,720)$ (14,117,485)$

Bike Recreation Benefits 1,509,146$ 3,069,159$

Walk Recreation Benefits 8,597,276$ 17,484,328$

Safety Benefits 47,965$ 99,950$

Decreased Auto Use Benefits 112,616$ 229,028$

User Delay Benefits 1,688,820$ 3,434,563$

Operating Expense Benefits -$ -$

Property Value Premium 2,339,958$ 2,725,174$

Total Benefits 14,295,780$ 27,042,200$

Net Economic Benefits 1,614,060$ 12,924,716$

Benefit Cost Ratio 1.13 1.92

CKC Kirkland TIGER Benefit-Cost Analysis

YearConstruction

Costs

Maintenance

CostsTotal Costs

Bike

Recreation

Benefits

Walk

Recreation

Benefits

2017 -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

2018 -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

2019 (5,530,394)$ (1,232)$ (5,530,394)$ 86,178$ 490,938$

2020 (9,480,676)$ (2,464)$ (9,480,676)$ 88,502$ 504,175$

2021 -$ (3,695)$ (3,695)$ 90,888$ 517,768$

2022 -$ (4,927)$ (4,927)$ 93,338$ 531,728$

2023 -$ (6,159)$ (6,159)$ 95,855$ 546,065$

2024 -$ (7,391)$ (7,391)$ 98,439$ 560,788$

2025 -$ (9,854)$ (9,854)$ 101,094$ 575,908$

2026 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 103,819$ 591,435$

2027 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 106,618$ 607,382$

2028 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 109,493$ 623,758$

2029 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 112,445$ 640,576$

2030 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 115,477$ 657,847$

2031 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 118,590$ 675,584$

2032 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 121,788$ 693,799$

2033 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 125,071$ 712,505$

2034 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 128,444$ 731,715$

2035 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 131,907$ 751,444$

2036 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 135,463$ 771,704$

2037 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 139,116$ 792,511$

2038 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 142,866$ 813,879$

2039 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 146,718$ 835,822$

2040 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 150,674$ 858,358$

2041 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 154,737$ 881,501$

2042 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 158,909$ 905,268$

2043 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 163,193$ 929,676$

2044 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 167,593$ 954,742$

2045 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 172,112$ 980,483$

2046 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 176,752$ 1,006,919$

2047 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 181,518$ 1,034,068$

2048 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 186,412$ 1,061,948$

2049 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 191,438$ 1,090,580$

2050 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 196,599$ 1,119,984$

2051 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 201,900$ 1,150,181$

2052 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 207,344$ 1,181,193$

2053 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 212,934$ 1,213,040$

2054 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 218,675$ 1,245,746$

2055 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 224,571$ 1,279,333$

CKC Kirkland - TIGER Benefit-Cost Analysis

2056 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 230,626$ 1,313,827$

2057 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 236,844$ 1,349,250$

2058 -$ (12,318)$ (12,318)$ 243,230$ 1,385,629$

2017 PV @ 7% (12,569,516)$ (115,291)$ (12,681,720)$ 1,509,146$ 8,597,276$

2017 PV @ 3% (13,889,088)$ (231,812)$ (14,117,485)$ 3,069,159$ 17,484,328$

B/C Ratio @ 7% 1.13

B/C Ratio @ 3% 1.92

*Per federal guidance, benefits from reduced CO2 emissions are valued using 3% SOC values and always discounted at 3%.

Discount Rate 7.00%

Discount Rate 3.00%

Safety

Benefits

Decreased

Auto Use

Benefits

User Delay

Benefits

Property Value

Premium

Total

Economic

Benefits

Net Economic

Benefits

-$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

-$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

-$ 6,431$ 96,438$ -$ 679,985$ (4,850,409)$

2,960$ 6,604$ 99,038$ -$ 701,280$ (8,779,396)$

3,040$ 6,782$ 101,709$ 3,067,207$ 3,787,395$ 3,783,700$

3,122$ 6,965$ 104,451$ -$ 739,605$ 734,678$

3,206$ 7,153$ 107,267$ -$ 759,546$ 753,388$

3,293$ 7,346$ 110,159$ -$ 780,025$ 772,635$

3,382$ 7,544$ 113,129$ -$ 801,056$ 791,202$

3,473$ 7,747$ 116,180$ -$ 822,654$ 810,337$

3,567$ 7,956$ 119,312$ -$ 844,835$ 832,517$

3,663$ 8,171$ 122,529$ -$ 867,613$ 855,296$

3,761$ 8,391$ 125,833$ -$ 891,006$ 878,688$

3,863$ 8,617$ 129,225$ -$ 915,029$ 902,711$

3,967$ 8,849$ 132,709$ -$ 939,700$ 927,382$

4,074$ 9,088$ 136,287$ -$ 965,036$ 952,719$

4,184$ 9,333$ 139,962$ -$ 991,055$ 978,738$

4,297$ 9,585$ 143,736$ -$ 1,017,776$ 1,005,459$

4,412$ 9,843$ 147,611$ -$ 1,045,217$ 1,032,900$

4,531$ 10,109$ 151,591$ -$ 1,073,399$ 1,061,081$

4,654$ 10,381$ 155,678$ -$ 1,102,339$ 1,090,022$

4,779$ 10,661$ 159,876$ -$ 1,132,061$ 1,119,743$

4,908$ 10,948$ 164,186$ -$ 1,162,583$ 1,150,266$

5,040$ 11,244$ 168,613$ -$ 1,193,929$ 1,181,611$

5,176$ 11,547$ 173,159$ -$ 1,226,119$ 1,213,802$

5,316$ 11,858$ 177,828$ -$ 1,259,178$ 1,246,861$

5,459$ 12,178$ 182,622$ -$ 1,293,128$ 1,280,810$

5,606$ 12,506$ 187,546$ -$ 1,327,993$ 1,315,676$

5,757$ 12,843$ 192,603$ -$ 1,363,799$ 1,351,481$

5,913$ 13,190$ 197,796$ -$ 1,400,569$ 1,388,252$

6,072$ 13,545$ 203,129$ -$ 1,438,331$ 1,426,014$

6,236$ 13,910$ 208,606$ -$ 1,477,112$ 1,464,794$

6,404$ 14,286$ 214,230$ -$ 1,516,937$ 1,504,620$

6,576$ 14,671$ 220,006$ -$ 1,557,837$ 1,545,520$

6,754$ 15,066$ 225,938$ -$ 1,599,839$ 1,587,522$

6,936$ 15,472$ 232,029$ -$ 1,642,974$ 1,630,657$

7,123$ 15,890$ 238,285$ -$ 1,687,272$ 1,674,954$

7,315$ 16,318$ 244,710$ -$ 1,732,764$ 1,720,447$

7,512$ 16,758$ 251,308$ -$ 1,779,483$ 1,767,165$


7,715$ 17,210$ 258,084$ -$ 1,827,461$ 1,815,144$

7,923$ 17,674$ 265,042$ -$ 1,876,733$ 1,864,416$

8,136$ 18,150$ 272,188$ -$ 1,927,334$ 1,915,016$

47,965$ 112,616$ 1,688,820$ 2,339,958$ 14,295,780$ 1,614,060$

99,950$ 229,028$ 3,434,563$ 2,725,174$ 27,042,200$ 12,924,716$

*Per federal guidance, benefits from reduced CO2 emissions are valued using 3% SOC values and always discounted at 3%.

2017 PV @ 7%Cummulative

2017 PV @ 7%2017 PV @ 3%

Cummulative

2017 PV @ 3%

-$ -$ -$ -$

-$ -$ -$ -$

(4,236,535)$ (4,236,535)$ (4,571,975)$ (4,571,975)$

(7,166,602)$ (11,403,137)$ (8,034,391)$ (12,606,367)$

2,886,566$ (8,516,571)$ 3,361,768$ (9,244,599)$

523,815$ (7,992,756)$ 633,740$ (8,610,859)$

502,014$ (7,490,742)$ 630,950$ (7,979,908)$

481,158$ (7,009,583)$ 628,223$ (7,351,686)$

460,487$ (6,549,097)$ 624,582$ (6,727,103)$

440,770$ (6,108,327)$ 621,056$ (6,106,047)$

423,210$ (5,685,117)$ 619,471$ (5,486,576)$

406,345$ (5,278,773)$ 617,884$ (4,868,693)$

390,148$ (4,888,625)$ 616,294$ (4,252,398)$

374,593$ (4,514,031)$ 614,703$ (3,637,696)$

359,655$ (4,154,377)$ 613,109$ (3,024,587)$

345,309$ (3,809,067)$ 611,514$ (2,413,073)$

331,532$ (3,477,535)$ 609,917$ (1,803,156)$

318,302$ (3,159,233)$ 608,319$ (1,194,837)$

305,598$ (2,853,635)$ 606,720$ (588,117)$

293,398$ (2,560,237)$ 605,120$ 17,003$

281,682$ (2,278,555)$ 603,519$ 620,521$

270,433$ (2,008,122)$ 601,917$ 1,222,438$

259,630$ (1,748,492)$ 600,315$ 1,822,754$

249,257$ (1,499,235)$ 598,713$ 2,421,466$

239,297$ (1,259,938)$ 597,110$ 3,018,576$

229,733$ (1,030,205)$ 595,508$ 3,614,084$

220,550$ (809,655)$ 593,905$ 4,207,989$

211,732$ (597,923)$ 592,303$ 4,800,292$

203,266$ (394,657)$ 590,701$ 5,390,993$

195,137$ (199,520)$ 589,100$ 5,980,092$

187,331$ (12,189)$ 587,499$ 6,567,591$

179,837$ 167,648$ 585,899$ 7,153,490$

172,642$ 340,290$ 584,300$ 7,737,790$

165,733$ 506,023$ 582,701$ 8,320,491$

159,100$ 665,124$ 581,104$ 8,901,595$

152,732$ 817,856$ 579,508$ 9,481,104$

146,618$ 964,474$ 577,914$ 10,059,017$

140,748$ 1,105,221$ 576,320$ 10,635,337$

135,112$ 1,240,333$ 574,728$ 11,210,066$


129,701$ 1,370,034$ 573,138$ 11,783,204$

124,506$ 1,494,541$ 571,549$ 12,354,753$

119,519$ 1,614,060$ 569,962$ 12,924,716$

1,614,060$

12,924,716$

Month Year % of Cost

Start June 2019 36.84%

Completion December 2020 63.16%

TOTAL 100.00%

$15,011,070

Construction Estimate

2017 Cost YOE Year

PE -$ 2019

ROW -$ 2019

Construction -$ 2019

Other -$ 2019

TOTAL -$

Year PE ROW Construction Other

2017 -$ -$ -$ -$

2018 -$ -$ -$ -$

TOTAL -$ -$ -$ -$

Construction Schedule

Construction Estimate Schedule: CKC Kirkland

VariableCKC Kirkland

Total

5,530,394$

9,480,676$

15,011,070$

Construction Estimate Schedule: CKC Kirkland

Discount Rate 1.03 1.07

Build No BuildAnnual

(Savings)/Cost2017 PV @ 3% 2017 PV @ 7%

2017 -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

2018 -$ -$ -$ -$ -$

2019 1,232$ -$ 1,232$ 1,063$ 878$

2020 2,464$ -$ 2,464$ 2,063$ 1,642$

2021 3,695$ -$ 3,695$ 3,005$ 2,301$

2022 4,927$ -$ 4,927$ 3,889$ 2,868$

2023 6,159$ -$ 6,159$ 4,720$ 3,350$

2024 7,391$ -$ 7,391$ 5,499$ 3,757$

2025 9,854$ -$ 9,854$ 7,119$ 4,682$

2026 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 8,639$ 5,469$

2027 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 8,388$ 5,111$

2028 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 8,143$ 4,777$

2029 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 7,906$ 4,464$

2030 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 7,676$ 4,172$

2031 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 7,452$ 3,899$

2032 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 7,235$ 3,644$

2033 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 7,024$ 3,406$

2034 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 6,820$ 3,183$

2035 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 6,621$ 2,975$

2036 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 6,428$ 2,780$

2037 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 6,241$ 2,598$

2038 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 6,059$ 2,428$

2039 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 5,883$ 2,269$

2040 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 5,712$ 2,121$

2041 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 5,545$ 1,982$

2042 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 5,384$ 1,853$

2043 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 5,227$ 1,731$

2044 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 5,075$ 1,618$

2045 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 4,927$ 1,512$

2046 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 4,783$ 1,413$

2047 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 4,644$ 1,321$

2048 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 4,509$ 1,234$

2049 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 4,377$ 1,154$

2050 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 4,250$ 1,078$

2051 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 4,126$ 1,008$

2052 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 4,006$ 942$

2053 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 3,889$ 880$

2054 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 3,776$ 823$

2055 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 3,666$ 769$

Year

CKC Kirkland

2056 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 3,559$ 718$

2057 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 3,456$ 671$

2058 12,318$ -$ 12,318$ 3,355$ 628$

TOTAL 212,141$ 94,112$

$6,500 2005$ "Building Trails: A Benefit-Cost Analysis"

$8,212 2016$

1.5 Miles of Trail

Trail Maintenance

Assumptions

Maintenance

Year

Maintenance

Level

Per Mile Cost

(2016$)

Total Cost

(2016$)

0 0% $0 $0

"Building Trails: A Benefit-Cost Analysis" 1 0% $0 $0

2 10% $821 $1,232

3 20% $1,642 $2,464

4 30% $2,464 $3,695

5 40% $3,285 $4,927

6 50% $4,106 $6,159

7 60% $4,927 $7,391

8 80% $6,569 $9,854

9 100% $8,212 $12,318

10 100% $8,212 $12,318

11 100% $8,212 $12,318

12 100% $8,212 $12,318

13 100% $8,212 $12,318

14 100% $8,212 $12,318

15 100% $8,212 $12,318

16 100% $8,212 $12,318

17 100% $8,212 $12,318

18 100% $8,212 $12,318

19 100% $8,212 $12,318

20 100% $8,212 $12,318

21 100% $8,212 $12,318

22 100% $8,212 $12,318

23 100% $8,212 $12,318

24 100% $8,212 $12,318

25 100% $8,212 $12,318

26 100% $8,212 $12,318

27 100% $8,212 $12,318

28 100% $8,212 $12,318

29 100% $8,212 $12,318

30 100% $8,212 $12,318

31 100% $8,212 $12,318

32 100% $8,212 $12,318

33 100% $8,212 $12,318

34 100% $8,212 $12,318

35 100% $8,212 $12,318

36 100% $8,212 $12,318

37 100% $8,212 $12,318

38 100% $8,212 $12,318

TRAIL MAINTENANCE COSTS: CKC Kirkland

39 100% $8,212 $12,318

40 100% $8,212 $12,318

41 100% $8,212 $12,318

$442,198Total Maintenance Cost


New Recreational

CyclistsValue of Benefit 2017 PV @ 3% 2017 PV @ 7%

2017 0 -$ -$ -$

2018 0 -$ -$ -$

2019 24 86,178$ 81,231$ 75,271$

2020 24 88,502$ 80,992$ 72,244$

2021 25 90,888$ 80,753$ 69,338$

2022 26 93,338$ 80,515$ 66,549$

2023 26 95,855$ 80,277$ 63,872$

2024 27 98,439$ 80,040$ 61,303$

2025 28 101,094$ 79,804$ 58,837$

2026 28 103,819$ 79,569$ 56,471$

2027 29 106,618$ 79,334$ 54,199$

2028 30 109,493$ 79,100$ 52,019$

2029 31 112,445$ 78,867$ 49,927$

2030 32 115,477$ 78,634$ 47,919$

2031 32 118,590$ 78,402$ 45,991$

2032 33 121,788$ 78,171$ 44,142$

2033 34 125,071$ 77,940$ 42,366$

2034 35 128,444$ 77,711$ 40,662$

2035 36 131,907$ 77,481$ 39,026$

2036 37 135,463$ 77,253$ 37,457$

2037 38 139,116$ 77,025$ 35,950$

2038 39 142,866$ 76,798$ 34,504$

2039 40 146,718$ 76,571$ 33,116$

2040 41 150,674$ 76,345$ 31,784$

2041 42 154,737$ 76,120$ 30,506$

2042 44 158,909$ 75,896$ 29,279$

2043 45 163,193$ 75,672$ 28,101$

2044 46 167,593$ 75,449$ 26,971$

2045 47 172,112$ 75,226$ 25,886$

2046 48 176,752$ 75,004$ 24,845$

2047 50 181,518$ 74,783$ 23,845$

2048 51 186,412$ 74,562$ 22,886$

2049 52 191,438$ 74,342$ 21,966$

2050 54 196,599$ 74,123$ 21,082$

2051 55 201,900$ 73,905$ 20,234$

2052 57 207,344$ 73,687$ 19,420$

2053 58 212,934$ 73,469$ 18,639$

2054 60 218,675$ 73,253$ 17,890$

CKC Kirkland

Year

2055 62 224,571$ 73,036$ 17,170$

2056 63 230,626$ 72,821$ 16,479$

2057 65 236,844$ 72,606$ 15,817$

2058 67 243,230$ 72,392$ 15,180$

TOTAL 6,068,173$ 3,069,159$ 1,509,146$

Low Estimate

Mid Estimate

High Estimate

Estimate for Analysis

Growth Rate of Cyclists

Share of Cycle commuters in Kirkland

Available Adults

Savings per mile (urban) - 2004$


Commute Length (miles)

Recreation Value

Value per day

Residential Density (persons per SQ mile)

0 - 800 meters of the facility



Estimated Population (persons within 1.5 miles of facility)




Total Population

Outputs

Demand (1.5 mile (2,400 m) radius around the proposed facility)

Residents

Existing Commuter Trips

New Commuter Trips

Total Existing Cyclists Trips

Total New Cyclists Trips

Annual Benefits

Bicycle Commute

Bicycle Growth

Annual Recreation Benefits

Total Annual Cyclist Benefits

Assumptions

Recreation

Health

Decreased Auto Use

Source:

$73,711

$86,178

$127,737

$86,178

2.70% ECONortwest analysis

1.0% 2015 PSRC HH survey

40.0% Benefit Cost Analysis of Bicycle Facilities.

$0.13 Barnes’ Mn/DOT Report 2004-50,

$0.17

5.8 2015 PSRC HH survey

$10 Benefit Cost Analysis of Bicycle Facilities.

2015

1,491 U.S. Census (2010) for City of Kirkland



2015

115 U.S. Census (2010) for City of Kirkland



2,558


Low Estimate Mid Estimate High Estimate

2,558 2,558 2,558

10 10 10

3 3 3

46 58 99

23 26 38

Bicycle Commute

Bicycle Growth


Total Annual Cyclist Benefits

Assumptions


$73,711 $86,178 $127,737

$2,949 $3,386 $4,844


$656 $656 $656

Condo and Apt Occupancy 1.5

Under Construction 91

Building Permit Issued 201

Building Permit App in Review 421

Zoning Permit Approved 650

Zoning Permit App in Review 562

Pre-Permit Review 1137

4593

2.7%


New Recreational

PedestrianValue of Benefit 2017 PV @ 3% 2017 PV @ 7%

2017 0 -$ -$ -$

2018 0 -$ -$ -$

2019 135 490,938$ 462,756$ 428,804$

2020 138 504,175$ 461,391$ 411,557$

2021 142 517,768$ 460,031$ 395,003$

2022 146 531,728$ 458,674$ 379,115$

2023 150 546,065$ 457,321$ 363,866$

2024 154 560,788$ 455,972$ 349,231$

2025 158 575,908$ 454,627$ 335,184$

2026 162 591,435$ 453,286$ 321,702$

2027 166 607,382$ 451,949$ 308,762$

2028 171 623,758$ 450,616$ 296,343$

2029 176 640,576$ 449,287$ 284,423$

2030 180 657,847$ 447,962$ 272,983$

2031 185 675,584$ 446,640$ 262,003$

2032 190 693,799$ 445,323$ 251,465$

2033 195 712,505$ 444,010$ 241,350$

2034 200 731,715$ 442,700$ 231,642$

2035 206 751,444$ 441,394$ 222,325$

2036 211 771,704$ 440,092$ 213,383$

2037 217 792,511$ 438,794$ 204,800$

2038 223 813,879$ 437,500$ 196,562$

2039 229 835,822$ 436,209$ 188,656$

2040 235 858,358$ 434,923$ 181,068$

2041 242 881,501$ 433,640$ 173,785$

2042 248 905,268$ 432,361$ 166,795$

2043 255 929,676$ 431,086$ 160,086$

2044 262 954,742$ 429,814$ 153,647$

2045 269 980,483$ 428,546$ 147,467$

2046 276 1,006,919$ 427,282$ 141,535$

2047 283 1,034,068$ 426,022$ 135,842$

2048 291 1,061,948$ 424,766$ 130,379$

2049 299 1,090,580$ 423,513$ 125,134$

2050 307 1,119,984$ 422,264$ 120,101$

2051 315 1,150,181$ 421,018$ 115,270$

2052 324 1,181,193$ 419,776$ 110,634$

2053 332 1,213,040$ 418,538$ 106,184$

2054 341 1,245,746$ 417,304$ 101,913$

Year

CKC Kirkland

2055 351 1,279,333$ 416,073$ 97,814$

2056 360 1,313,827$ 414,845$ 93,880$

2057 370 1,349,250$ 413,622$ 90,103$

2058 380 1,385,629$ 412,402$ 86,479$

TOTAL 34,569,056$ 17,484,328$ 8,597,276$

Low Estimate

Mid Estimate

High Estimate

Estimate for Analysis

Growth Rate of Pedestrians

Share of Pedestrian commuters in Kirkland

Available Adults



Commute Length (miles)

Recreation Value

Value per day

Residential Density (persons per SQ mile)




Estimated Population (persons within 1.5 miles of facility)




Total Population

Outputs


Residents

Existing Commuter Trips

New Commuter Trips

Total Existing Pedestrian Trips

Total New Pedestrian Trips

Annual Benefits

Pedestrian Commute


Total Annual Pedestrian Benefits

Assumptions

Pedestrian Growth

Recreation

Health

Decreased Auto Use

Source:

$446,055

$490,938

$824,238

$490,938

2.70% ECONortwest analysis

8.8% 2015 PSRC HH survey

40.0% Benefit Cost Analysis of BiPedestrian

$0.13 Barnes’ Mn/DOT Report 2004-50,

$0.17

5.8 2015 PSRC HH survey

$10

2015




2015




2,558



2,558 2,558 2,558

90 90 90

25 25 25

206 250 578

147 160 251

Pedestrian Commute


Total Annual Pedestrian Benefits

Assumptions

Pedestrian Growth


$446,055 $490,938 $824,238

$18,849 $20,423 $32,111


$5,775 $5,775 $5,775


New CommutersValue of Auto

Red. ($2017)

2017 Value

of PV @ 3%*

2017 Value

of PV @ 7%*

2017 0 -$ -$ -$

2018 0 -$ -$ -$

2019 28 6,430.81$ 6,061.65$ 5,617$

2020 29 6,604.20$ 6,043.78$ 5,390.99$

2021 29 6,782.26$ 6,025.95$ 5,174.15$

2022 30 6,965.12$ 6,008.18$ 4,966.04$

2023 31 7,152.92$ 5,990.45$ 4,766.29$

2024 32 7,345.77$ 5,972.79$ 4,574.58$

2025 33 7,543.83$ 5,955.17$ 4,390.58$

2026 34 7,747.23$ 5,937.60$ 4,213.98$

2027 35 7,956.11$ 5,920.09$ 4,044.48$

2028 35 8,170.62$ 5,902.63$ 3,881.80$

2029 36 8,390.91$ 5,885.22$ 3,725.67$

2030 37 8,617.15$ 5,867.86$ 3,575.81$

2031 38 8,849.48$ 5,850.55$ 3,431.98$

2032 39 9,088.08$ 5,833.30$ 3,293.94$

2033 40 9,333.12$ 5,816.09$ 3,161.45$

2034 42 9,584.76$ 5,798.93$ 3,034.29$

2035 43 9,843.18$ 5,781.83$ 2,912.24$

2036 44 10,108.57$ 5,764.78$ 2,795.10$

2037 45 10,381.12$ 5,747.77$ 2,682.68$

2038 46 10,661.01$ 5,730.82$ 2,574.77$

2039 47 10,948.46$ 5,713.92$ 2,471.21$

2040 49 11,243.65$ 5,697.06$ 2,371.81$

2041 50 11,546.80$ 5,680.26$ 2,276.41$

2042 51 11,858.12$ 5,663.51$ 2,184.85$

2043 53 12,177.84$ 5,646.80$ 2,096.97$

2044 54 12,506.18$ 5,630.15$ 2,012.62$

2045 56 12,843.37$ 5,613.54$ 1,931.67$

2046 57 13,189.65$ 5,596.98$ 1,853.97$

2047 59 13,545.27$ 5,580.47$ 1,779.40$

2048 60 13,910.48$ 5,564.01$ 1,707.83$

2049 62 14,285.53$ 5,547.60$ 1,639.14$

2050 64 14,670.70$ 5,531.24$ 1,573.21$

2051 65 15,066.25$ 5,514.92$ 1,509.93$

2052 67 15,472.47$ 5,498.66$ 1,449.20$

2053 69 15,889.63$ 5,482.44$ 1,390.91$

2054 71 16,318.05$ 5,466.27$ 1,334.96$

CKC Kirkland

Year

2055 73 16,758.02$ 5,450.15$ 1,281.27$

2056 75 17,209.85$ 5,434.07$ 1,229.73$

2057 77 17,673.86$ 5,418.04$ 1,180.27$

2058 79 18,150.38$ 5,402.06$ 1,132.79$

TOTAL 229,028$ 112,616$

*Per federal guidance, benefits from reduced CO2 emissions are valued using 3%SOC values and always discounted at 3%.

*Per federal guidance, benefits from reduced CO2 emissions are valued using 3%SOC values and always discounted at 3%.


Miles Reduced

Annual Value 2017 PV @ 3%2017 PV @ 7% Traveled Fatalities

2017 -$ -$ -$ 0 0.000

2018 -$ -$ -$ 0 0.000

2019 -$ -$ -$ 0 0.000

2020 2,960$ 2,709$ 2,417$ 42,875 0.000

2021 3,040$ 2,701$ 2,319$ 44,031 0.000

2022 3,122$ 2,693$ 2,226$ 45,219 0.000

2023 3,206$ 2,685$ 2,137$ 46,438 0.000

2024 3,293$ 2,677$ 2,051$ 47,690 0.000

2025 3,382$ 2,670$ 1,968$ 48,976 0.000

2026 3,473$ 2,662$ 1,889$ 50,296 0.000

2027 3,567$ 2,654$ 1,813$ 51,652 0.000

2028 3,663$ 2,646$ 1,740$ 53,045 0.000

2029 3,761$ 2,638$ 1,670$ 54,475 0.000

2030 3,863$ 2,630$ 1,603$ 55,944 0.000

2031 3,967$ 2,623$ 1,538$ 57,452 0.000

2032 4,074$ 2,615$ 1,477$ 59,001 0.000

2033 4,184$ 2,607$ 1,417$ 60,592 0.000

2034 4,297$ 2,600$ 1,360$ 62,226 0.000

2035 4,412$ 2,592$ 1,305$ 63,903 0.000

2036 4,531$ 2,584$ 1,253$ 65,626 0.000

2037 4,654$ 2,577$ 1,203$ 67,396 0.000

2038 4,779$ 2,569$ 1,154$ 69,213 0.000

2039 4,908$ 2,561$ 1,108$ 71,079 0.000

2040 5,040$ 2,554$ 1,063$ 72,995 0.000

2041 5,176$ 2,546$ 1,020$ 74,963 0.001

2042 5,316$ 2,539$ 979$ 76,985 0.001

2043 5,459$ 2,531$ 940$ 79,060 0.001

2044 5,606$ 2,524$ 902$ 81,192 0.001

2045 5,757$ 2,516$ 866$ 83,381 0.001

2046 5,913$ 2,509$ 831$ 85,629 0.001

2047 6,072$ 2,502$ 798$ 87,938 0.001

2048 6,236$ 2,494$ 766$ 90,309 0.001

2049 6,404$ 2,487$ 735$ 92,744 0.001

2050 6,576$ 2,480$ 705$ 95,244 0.001

2051 6,754$ 2,472$ 677$ 97,812 0.001

2052 6,936$ 2,465$ 650$ 100,449 0.001

Year

CKC Kirkland

2053 7,123$ 2,458$ 624$ 103,158 0.001

2054 7,315$ 2,450$ 598$ 105,939 0.001

2055 7,512$ 2,443$ 574$ 108,795 0.001

2056 7,715$ 2,436$ 551$ 111,729 0.001

2057 7,923$ 2,429$ 529$ 114,741 0.001

2058 8,136$ 2,422$ 508$ 117,835 0.001

TOTAL 200,105$ 99,950$ 47,965$

Reduced Reduced

Injuries PDO

0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 Severity All

0.000 0.000 All 3.53

0.023 0.055 PDO 2.49

0.023 0.057 Injury 1.03

0.024 0.058 Fatal 0.01

0.025 0.060

0.025 0.061

0.026 0.063

0.027 0.065

0.027 0.066 AIS Level Severity

0.028 0.068 1 Minor

0.029 0.070 2 Moderate

0.030 0.072 3 Serious

0.030 0.074 4 Severe

0.031 0.076 5 Critical

0.032 0.078 6 Unsurvivable

0.033 0.080

0.034 0.082

0.035 0.084

0.036 0.086 VSL 2013 9,100,000$

0.037 0.089 VSL 2016 9,558,591$

0.038 0.091 PDO 2010 3,206.00$

0.039 0.094 PDO 2016 3,900.84$

0.040 0.096

0.041 0.099

0.042 0.101

0.043 0.104 AIS Level K

0.044 0.107 0 0.000

0.045 0.110 1 0.000

0.047 0.113 2 0.000

0.048 0.116 3 0.000

0.049 0.119 4 0.000

0.051 0.122 5 0.000

0.052 0.126 6 1.000

0.053 0.129

Accident Rates / million vmt

AIS and VSL

VSL and PDO Conversion Table

KABCO to AIS Conversion Matrix

0.055 0.132

0.056 0.136

0.058 0.140 K: fatal injury

0.059 0.143 A: incapacitating injury

0.061 0.147 B: non-incapacitating injury

0.062 0.151

KABCO

C: possible injury.

O/PDO: property damage only

Source:

Urban WA

1.82 Red cell value from NHTSB

1.28 Yellow cells from AASHTO Red Book

0.53 Light blue cells calculate the accidents avoided based on VMT reduced from decreased auto use

0.01 Note: some cost for injury accidents need to be selected (currently using columB from KABCO table

Fraction of VSL

0.003

0.047

0.105

0.266

0.593

1.0

2013$ Base Conversion

2014$ 1.05

2010$ Base Conversion

2014$ 1.22

A B C O

0.034 0.083 0.234 0.925

0.554 0.768 0.689 0.073

0.209 0.109 0.064 0.002

0.144 0.032 0.011 0.000

0.040 0.006 0.001 0.000

0.018 0.001 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Accident Rates / million vmt

AIS and VSL

VSL and PDO Conversion Table

KABCO to AIS Conversion Matrix

Light blue cells calculate the accidents avoided based on VMT reduced from decreased auto use

Note: some cost for injury accidents need to be selected (currently using columB from KABCO table


Annual

Hours Red.

Value of

Reduction2017 PV @ 3% 2017 PV @ 7%

2017 - -$ -$ -$

2018 - -$ -$ -$

2019 7,091 96,438$ 90,902$ 84,233$

2020 7,282 99,038$ 90,634$ 80,845$

2021 7,479 101,709$ 90,367$ 77,593$

2022 7,680 104,451$ 90,100$ 74,472$

2023 7,887 107,267$ 89,835$ 71,477$

2024 8,100 110,159$ 89,570$ 68,602$

2025 8,318 113,129$ 89,305$ 65,842$

2026 8,543 116,180$ 89,042$ 63,194$

2027 8,773 119,312$ 88,779$ 60,652$

2028 9,009 122,529$ 88,517$ 58,213$

2029 9,252 125,833$ 88,256$ 55,871$

2030 9,502 129,225$ 87,996$ 53,624$

2031 9,758 132,709$ 87,737$ 51,467$

2032 10,021 136,287$ 87,478$ 49,397$

2033 10,291 139,962$ 87,220$ 47,410$

2034 10,569 143,736$ 86,962$ 45,503$

2035 10,854 147,611$ 86,706$ 43,673$

2036 11,146 151,591$ 86,450$ 41,916$

2037 11,447 155,678$ 86,195$ 40,230$

2038 11,756 159,876$ 85,941$ 38,612$

2039 12,073 164,186$ 85,688$ 37,059$

2040 12,398 168,613$ 85,435$ 35,568$

2041 12,732 173,159$ 85,183$ 34,138$

2042 13,076 177,828$ 84,932$ 32,765$

2043 13,428 182,622$ 84,681$ 31,447$

2044 13,790 187,546$ 84,431$ 30,182$

2045 14,162 192,603$ 84,182$ 28,968$

2046 14,544 197,796$ 83,934$ 27,803$

2047 14,936 203,129$ 83,686$ 26,684$

2048 15,339 208,606$ 83,440$ 25,611$

2049 15,752 214,230$ 83,193$ 24,581$

2050 16,177 220,006$ 82,948$ 23,592$

2051 16,613 225,938$ 82,703$ 22,643$

2052 17,061 232,029$ 82,459$ 21,733$

2053 17,521 238,285$ 82,216$ 20,858$

2054 17,993 244,710$ 81,974$ 20,019$

Year

CKC Kirkland

2055 18,479 251,308$ 81,732$ 19,214$

2056 18,977 258,084$ 81,491$ 18,441$

2057 19,488 265,042$ 81,250$ 17,700$

2058 20,014 272,188$ 81,011$ 16,988$

TOTAL 3,434,563$ 1,688,820$

Bicycle Growth

Perceived Distance Reduction -26%

Value of Time 13.60$

Speed (MPH) 10.00

Growth Rate of Cyclists 2.70%

Commute Length (miles) 1.5

Commute Days 260



Residents 2,558 2,558 2,558

Existing Commuter Trips 10 10 10

New Commuter Trips 3 3 3

Total Existing Cyclists Trips 46 58 99

Total New Cyclists Trips 23 26 38

Perceived Time Savings 2015 7,091.05 7,091.05 7,091.05

Assumptions

2015 Outputs

SUM OF PROPERTY VALUE INCREASE

Area Single-Family Properties Condo Properties

Kirkland $1,382,702 $124,684

Bellevue $4,809,342 $386,476

Area Single-Family Properties Condo Properties

Kirkland $2,780,852 $286,355

Bellevue $10,912,785 $879,134

Mean Premium

Premium One Standard Deviation Less than Mean

Total

$1,507,386

$5,195,819

Total

$3,067,207

$11,791,919

Mean Premium

Premium One Standard Deviation Less than Mean

Series Id:

Series Title:

Area:

Item:

Base

Period:

Years:

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2004 185.2 186.2 187.4 188.0 189.1 189.7

2005 190.7 191.8 193.3 194.6 194.4 194.5

2006 198.3 198.7 199.8 201.5 202.5 202.9

2007 202.4 203.5 205.4 206.7 207.9 208.4

2008 211.1 211.7 213.5 214.8 216.6 218.8

2009 211.1 212.2 212.7 213.2 213.9 215.7

2010 216.7 216.7 217.6 218.0 218.2 218.0

2011 220.2 221.3 223.5 224.9 226.0 225.7

2012 226.7 227.7 229.4 230.1 229.8 229.5

2013 230.3 232.2 232.8 232.5 232.9 233.5

2014 233.9 234.8 236.3 237.1 237.9 238.3

2015 233.7 234.7 236.1 236.6 237.8 238.6

2016 236.9 237.1 238.1 239.3 240.2 241.0

2017 242.8 243.6 243.8 244.5 244.7 245.0

U.S. city average

All items

1982-84=100

2004 to 2017

CPI-All Urban Consumers (Current Series)

Original Data Value

CUUS0000SA0

Not Seasonally Adjusted

All items in U.S. city average, all urban consumers, not seasonally adjusted

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual

189.4 189.5 189.9 190.9 191.0 190.3 188.9

195.4 196.4 198.8 199.2 197.6 196.8 195.3

203.5 203.9 202.9 201.8 201.5 201.8 201.6

208.3 207.9 208.5 208.9 210.2 210.0 207.3

220.0 219.1 218.8 216.6 212.4 210.2 215.3

215.4 215.8 216.0 216.2 216.3 215.9 214.5

218.0 218.3 218.4 218.7 218.8 219.2 218.1

225.9 226.5 226.9 226.4 226.2 225.7 224.9

229.1 230.4 231.4 231.3 230.2 229.6 229.6

233.6 233.9 234.1 233.5 233.1 233.0 233.0

238.3 237.9 238.0 237.4 236.2 234.8 236.7

238.7 238.3 237.9 237.8 237.3 236.5 237.0

240.6 240.8 241.4 241.7 241.4 241.4 240.0

244.8 245.5

2004/2017 1.301

2005/2017 1.263

2010/2017 1.217

2013/2017 1.050

HALF1 HALF2

187.6 190.2

193.2 197.4

200.6 202.6

205.7 209.0

214.4 216.2

213.1 215.9

217.5 218.6

223.6 226.3

228.9 230.3

232.4 233.5

236.4 237.1

236.3 237.8

238.8 241.2

244.1

Documents

CKC Kirkland TIGER Benefit-Cost Analysis · Net Present Values (2016-2057) 7% Discount Rate 3% Discount Rate Construction Costs $ (12,569,516) $ (13,889,088)