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City of St. Paul Susan Brower, MN State Demographer March 2014
Number of older adults will increase substantially over the next 20 years
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Minnesota State Demographic Center
85 55
71 67 47
91
- - - - -
1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s
Change in older adults, age 65+ (Thousands)
Number of older adults will increase substantially over the next 20 years
85 55 71 67
47
91
285
335
97 66 56
1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s
Change in older adults, age 65+ (Thousands)
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Minnesota State Demographic Center
For the first time in MN history: More 65+ than school-age by 2020
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau & Minnesota State Demographic Center
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
18-24
65+
5-17
Increasingly our demographics will change the demand for services
K-12 Education
42% Health & Human Services
31%
Higher Education
8%
All other areas 19%
• Medical Assistance Expenditures: 25% of GF spending (8.5 billion)
• Medical Assistance Expenditures for the Elderly and Disabled: 16% of GF spending (5.5 billion)
• MA expenditures include basic care, long-term care waivers and long-term institutional care
General Fund Expenditures FY 2012-2013
Within Health & Human Services
Sources: Minnesota Management and Budget, February 2013. House Research, Long-Term Care Services for the Elderly, November 2012
From 2008: If State Health Care Costs Continue Their Current Trend, State Spending
On Other Services Can’t Grow
3.9%
8.5%
0.2% 0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Revenue Health Care Education & All Other
An
nu
al A
ve G
row
th 2
00
8-2
03
3
Source: General Fund Spending Outlook, presentation to the Budget Trends Commission, August 2008, Dybdal, Reitan and Broat
Minnesota’s labor force growth is projected to slow
Average Annual Change
1.9%
2.7%
1.5% 1.5%
0.9%
0.5% 0.3%
0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center
Population growth rates have converged over the last decade
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
200120022003 2004 20052006200720082009 20102011 2012
Anoka
Carver
Dakota
Hennepin
Ramsey
Scott
Washington
Population growth rates have converged over the last decade
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Hennepin
Ramsey
Growth rates have converged nationally too
Source: Brookings Institution
Baby boomers’ preference for single family housing is changing
Among baby boomers considering a move, current (2010) and expected (2020) housing preferences
Source: MN Department of Human Services, Transform 2010 Data Report, Boomer Survey
Baby boomers’ considerations for moving
Source: MN Department of Human Services, Transform 2010 Data Report, Boomer Survey
289,270
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
St. Paul population
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
St. Paul remains
among the most diverse cities in the
state
Source: MNCompass.org
Race and ethnicity of St. Paul residents
White 55%
Black or African American
16%
Asian 16%
Two or more races/other
4% Latino 9%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
St. Paul’s population by age groups, 2012
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 population estimates
0 10,000 20,000 30,000
Under 5 5 to 9
10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84
85+
White (non-Hispanic)
Of Color
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000
Under 5
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85+
White (non-Hispanic)
Of Color
Minnesota’s population by age groups, 2012
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 population estimates
24% of St. Paul residents have incomes below the poverty threshold
Percent with incomes below poverty threshold, 2008-2012
Source: Census Explorer.
Percent with incomes below poverty threshold, 2008-2012
Source: Census Explorer.
Housing Cost-
burdens have
increased
Source: MNCompass.org from U.S. Census Bureau data
1990 2000 2010-2012 Brooklyn Center 24% 26% 47% Minneapolis 33% 31% 41% St. Paul 32% 29% 41% St. Cloud 30% 24% 39% Brooklyn Park 25% 23% 39% Duluth 24% 27% 39% Mankato 32% 30% 38% New Hope 28% 28% 38% Richfield 23% 24% 37% Maplewood 24% 23% 36% Burnsville 23% 23% 35% South St. Paul 26% 22% 35% Winona 24% 23% 35%
Inver Grove Heights 25% 21% 35% Northfield 29% 22% 34%
Share of households that spend more than 1/3 of income on housing
Home values (self-reported), 2008-2012
Source: Census Explorer.
Percent with a bachelor’s degree, 2008-2012
Source: Census Explorer.
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