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CITY OF BRAMPTONTRANSPORTATION MASTER PLANUPDATE
NOVEMBER 2013
TECHNICAL REPORT #1 - MODEL VALIDATION
MODEL VALIDATION | NOVEMBER 2013
1
CITY OF BRAMPTON
TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN UPDATE
Document Control:
Client: City of Brampton
Project Name: City of Brampton Transportation Master Plan Update
Report Title: Brampton Model Validation
MMM Reference: 1613074-001-T01
Version: 1
Originator: Mausam Duggal, Keyur Shah, Qingjie Zeng
Reviewer: Peter Hillier
Authorization: Peter Hillier
Circulation List:
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TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN UPDATE
Table of Contents
1.0 Introduction ........................................................................................ 4
2.0 Supply Review ................................................................................... 5
2.1 Road Network ................................................................................. 5
2.2 Transit Network .............................................................................. 5
3.0 Demand Review ................................................................................. 6
3.1 Super Zones ............................................................................................... 6
3.2 Population/Employment Distribution ....................................................... 7
3.3 Trip Generation .......................................................................................... 7
3.3.1 Total Trips ........................................................................................ 7
3.3.2 Special Generator Trips ................................................................... 8
3.4 Mode Split ................................................................................................... 9
3.5 Trip Distribution ....................................................................................... 11
3.6 Assignment ............................................................................................... 14
3.6.1 Auto Assignment ............................................................................ 14
3.6.2 Highway 407 Performance ............................................................. 17
3.6.3 Travel Times in Key Corridors........................................................ 19
3.6.4 Transit Assignment ........................................................................ 20
3.6.5 Zum Performance .......................................................................... 23
List of Figures:
Figure 1: Tier 1 Super Zone System ......................................................................................... 6 Figure 2: Tier 2 Super Zone System - City of Brampton ............................................................ 6 Figure 3: City of Brampton - 2011 Census Distribution of Population and Employment ............ 7 Figure 4: P.M. Peak Period Boardings by Mode (Brampton Transit Only) .............................. 10 Figure 5: Screenline Definitions ............................................................................................... 14 Figure 6: 2011 Updated Model and Observed Screenline V/C Ratios - Peak Direction .......... 16 Figure 7: 2011 Updated Trip Length Frequency Distribution - Highway 407 ........................... 18 Figure 8: P.M. Peak Period Ridership in the City of Brampton - 2011 Updated Model ............ 20 Figure 9: 2011 P.M. Peak Period Updated Model Boardings and Alightings ........................... 23
List of Tables: Table 1: P.M. Peak Period Trip Generation - City of Brampton ................................................. 8 Table 2: P.M. Peak Period Comparison - Special Generator .................................................... 8 Table 3: 2011 Updated Model P.M. Peak Period Trips by Mode ............................................... 9 Table 4: TTS vs Updated Model - 2011 P.M. Peak Period Trips for all Modes* ...................... 11 Table 5: TTS vs Updated Model - 2011 P.M. Peak Period Trips for Local Transit Only .......... 12 Table 6: TTS vs Updated Model - 2011 P.M. Peak Period Transit Trips (City of Brampton Only) ........................................................................................................................................ 13 Table 7: P.M. Peak Hour and Peak Direction Comparison of Observed vs Updated Model Auto Assignment ..................................................................................................................... 15
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Table 8: P.M. Peak Hour and Off-Peak Direction Comparison of Observed vs Updated Model Auto Assignment ..................................................................................................................... 15 Table 9: 2011 Updated Model System Metrics ........................................................................ 17 Table 10: Comparison of Highway 407 P.M. Peak Hour Assignment - Updated Model to Observed Counts .................................................................................................................... 17 Table 11: 2011 Updated Model Travel Time Comparison ....................................................... 19 Table 12: P.M. Peak Period Modeled vs Observed Boardings - 2011 ..................................... 22
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1.0 Introduction This report documents the performance of the City of Brampton’s Simplified GTA Model, and existing baseline conditions for the 2011 horizon year. The model is hereafter referred to as BSGM, and its performance is measured using the 2011 TTS and 2011 Cordon Count Data, wherever possible. This report is a “living document”, which will be updated as additional input and validation data is made available, and further refinements are completed in Stage 2 of the model update. Through the course of the model review exercise, the team has made updates to the BSGM in order to improve its performance and forecasting abilities. These improvements have spanned both the demand (four-stages) and supply (auto and transit network) side of the BSGM. The report is divided into two primary sections. First, supply review, which addresses the accuracy of the 2011 road and transit networks to reflect existing (2011) conditions. Second, demand review, which encompasses the trip generation, trip distribution, mode split, and the road and transit assignment stages of the BSGM. The sequence in which the four-stages of the model are presented has been altered to maintain a logical flow for discussion purposes, and does not reflect the actual internal workings of the BSGM. Throughout the report we have identified issues (blue badge) with the model and the corresponding timelines to address them. Updates which were deemed critical to the development of the Development Charge study have been identified as Stage 1 (orange badge) and the results presented in this document reflect those updates. Updates that would predominantly benefit the Transportation Master Plan process are identified as Stage 2 (green badge), and planned for February 2014.
Issues
Stage 2 Update
Stage 1 Update
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2.0 Supply Review
2.1 Road Network
A review of the 2011 road network within the City of Brampton and its immediate vicinity was completed. The network was compared to information provided by the City of Brampton staff as well as to satellite images of the areas under question. The review addressed the following network characteristics:
Number of lanes; Link speeds; Volume-delay-functions; Per lane link capacity; and, Length and number of Centroid Connectors within Traffic Analysis Zones
(TAZs) in key corridors. A detailed listing of the changes is presented in Appendix A.
2.2 Transit Network A comprehensive review of the transit networks in the City of Brampton and City of Mississauga was also completed, checking for consistency across the following characteristics:
Line itineraries; Headways; Speeds; Bus stops; and, Walk connectors to transit lines.
A detailed listing of the changes is presented in Appendix B. Of note, the review of the transit networks was not limited to local transit services, but also intra-regional services such as GO Transit that are operating within the City of Brampton.
Stage 1 Update
Stage 1 Update
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3.0 DEMAND REVIEW
3.1 Super Zones A two-tier system of super zones was created to assist in the validation of the model. The first tier divided the entire GTHA into a series of nine internal and one external super zone, as shown in Figure 1. The second tier divides the City of Brampton into six super zones, as shown in Figure 2.
Figure 1: Tier 1 Super Zone System
Figure 2: Tier 2 Super Zone System - City of Brampton
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3.2 Population/Employment Distribution Figure 3 shows the 2011 census-based distribution of population and employment in the City of Brampton. The area south of Queen Street and east of Main Street is predominantly employment based, including sections along Torbram Road and Airport Road. The rest of the city is primarily residential with some employment lands. The 2011 population and employment for the City of Brampton are as follows:
Population: 510,002 Employment: 181,930
3.3 Trip Generation 3.3.1 Total Trips The trips generated by the model for the 2011 model were compared to the 2011 TTS data. The model over reports trip productions and trip attractions by close to 8% and 9%, respectively, when compared to the 2011 TTS data.
Figure 3: City of Brampton - 2011 Census Distribution of Population and Employment
Population – 15,000 Employment – 7,500
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Table 1: P.M. Peak Period Trip Generation - City of Brampton * all modes represent auto driver, auto passenger, GO rail, local transit only Given the preliminary nature of the 2011 TTS data and the marginal under reporting to be expected in the TTS (3%-5%), this discrepancy in the total trips is not a cause of concern for Stage 1 of the update. However, this discrepancy can inflate trips by non-auto modes of transportation, such as local transit and GO Rail, warranting an investigation for Stage 2 of the model update. 3.3.2 Special Generator Trips Special generators in the model represent traffic analysis zones (TAZs) that have very different trip making characteristics from the surrounding TAZs, thereby having the potential to make a major impact on the transportation system. An important consideration for identifying special generators is that they be represented by a single TAZ with no other land uses within it so that their impact can be isolated and quantified. In general, special generators are represented by large shopping malls, educational institutions, hospitals, military bases etc. Within the City of Brampton there are a number of such potential special generators, as shown in Appendix C. However, only a few could be studied because most of the special generators were integrated with other land uses. For example, The Brampton Civic Hospital at the intersection of Bovaird Drive and Bramalea Road by definition is a special generator, but the TAZ that it lies in (TAZ # 1719) includes residential sub-divisions to the north and east. A similar situation was encountered for the Bramalea Civic Centre and Shoppers World. The Sheridan College campus located at the intersection of McLaughlin Road and Steeles Avenue West is represented by a single TAZ (TAZ # 1905) in the model, which allowed the comparison of the model trips to those estimated by the ITE Trip Generation Manual 7.0, as shown in Table 2. The results show that the BGSM’s trip estimates for Sheridan College are within 10% of those estimated by the ITE Manual. Table 2: P.M. Peak Period Comparison - Special Generator
Generator Name
TAZ
Model ITE Estimate Model - ITE
Estimate Model / ITE
Estimate
Prod Attr Prod Attr Prod Attr Prod Attr
Sheridan College
1905 1,648 772 1,523 717 125 55 1.08 1.08
* The PM peak hour ITE trips were expanded to the PM peak period using a factor of 0.37
Mode Productions Attractions
2011 TTS 2011 Model 2011 TTS 2011 Model
All Modes* 197,401 212,233 234,151 254,936
Issue: Special Generators
Stage 2 Update
Issue: Overreporting of trips
Stage 2 Update
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3.4 Mode Split The City of Brampton has recently implemented a new modal split sub-model as part of the BGSM. This new approach uses a look up table to assign mode split percentages based on transit level of service, stratified geographically between the City of Toronto and the rest of the GTHA. The macro requires two input files, which allow the user to control the percentage of modal split adjustment for each TAZ. First, a file that contains the municipal (Planning District) adjustment factors (area.prn), and second, a lookup table with transit modal split values based on the level of service criteria (ms_input.prn). One of the significant discrepancies in the original BGSM revolved around the “Other Transit” mode. The original 2011 model reported 9,239 transit trip productions and 11,422 transit trip attractions, for the 2011 P.M. peak period. Both these P.M. peak period trips were not only significantly lower than the 2011 TTS estimates (Table 3), but also lower than the 2006 TTS estimates, which reported 9,307 transit trip productions and 13,012 transit trip attractions. During the course of the model review, it was decided to update the inputs in the area.prn file that contains the municipal (Planning District) adjustment factors to improve the BGSM’s estimated transit trips. This approach allows the user to focus adjustments to the City of Brampton only, as opposed to the lookup table (ms_input.prn), which is applied based on a TAZs level of service rating and affects TAZs outside the City of Brampton as well. Table 3 compares the 2011 P.M. peak period trips by mode after the above update, and the auto and transit updates listed in Appendix A and B.
Table 3: 2011 Updated Model P.M. Peak Period Trips by Mode
* all modes represent auto driver, auto passenger, GO rail, local transit only The mode shares estimated by the BSGM are relatively close to observed 2011 TTS values. However, the GO Rail mode exhibits close to 45% more trip attractions and consequently higher mode shares than observed. This GO Rail discrepancy between the 2011 TTS and the model can be attributed partly to the over reporting of total trips (Table 1) by the BSGM. There is a possibility to dampen the “GO Rail destinations” input file and bring the trips in-line with observed values, but this refinement is best suited for Stage 2 of the model update.
Mode
Productions Attractions
2011 TTS 2011 Model 2011 TTS 2011 Model
Auto Person 186,760 (94.6%) 201,435 (94.9%) 213,389 (91.1%) 231,647 (90.8%)
GO Rail 96 (0.1%) 46 (0%) 3,921 (1.6%) 5,677 (2.3%)
Other Transit 10,545 (5.3%) 10,752 (5.1%) 16,841 (7.1%) 17,612 (6.9%)
All Modes* 197,401 (100%) 212,233 (100%) 234,151 (100%) 254,936 (100%)
Stage 1 Update
Issue: GO Rail Trips
Stage 2 Update
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Figure 4 shows P.M. peak period boardings by mode for transit lines operated by the City of Brampton. As expected, close to 84% (15,686 peak period boardings) of the P.M. peak period boardings take place on the local transit system, with the express Zum service accounting for the remaining 16%. Of note, this does not represent boardings that take place on transit systems operated by other municipalities, such as Mississauga Transit, GO Transit etc., within the City boundary. Given the relatively short time that the Zum service was operational prior to 2011, it represents a substantial share of the total boardings and is expected to continue to rise as the service is refined and expanded.
Figure 4: P.M. Peak Period Boardings by Mode (Brampton Transit Only)
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3.5 Trip Distribution The trip distribution from the 2011 model was compared to the 2011 P.M. peak period TTS data, as shown in Table 4 and Table 5. Trips internal to the City account for close to 69% of the entire P.M. peak period trip making, followed by the City of Mississauga, and the City of Toronto. Table 3. TTS vs. Updated Model – 2011 P.M. Peak Period Trips for All Modes*
* all modes represent auto driver, auto passenger, GO rail, local transit only Transit (non-GO Rail) is a key mode of transportation for trips to, from, and internal to the City due to the significant increase in congestion, introduction of the Zum express service, and the projected future population and employment growth in the City. In light of the above, Table 4 compares the 2011 modeled P.M. peak period transit (non-GO Rail) distribution to the observed 2011 TTS distribution.
City of
Toronto
Durham
RegionYork Region
Town of
Caledon
City of
Brampton
City of
Mississauga
Halton
Region
Hamilton
RegionExternal Area
Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Group 6 Group 7 Group 8 Group 9
City of Toronto 1,057,802 54,673 155,899 4,608 32,794 71,912 23,807 6,805 13,194 14% 1,421,494
Durham Region 16,442 227,700 7,620 87 511 1,056 441 365 7,933 0% 262,155
York Region 94,165 17,165 353,998 3,166 9,148 7,846 2,925 973 16,017 4% 505,403
Town of Caledon 1,609 56 1,551 9,974 3,825 753 555 139 3,151 2% 21,613
City of Brampton 12,605 736 7,058 5,010 136,756 20,989 7,674 1,166 5,407 58% 197,401
City of Mississauga 50,686 2,729 13,958 2,824 42,899 238,588 36,752 7,521 9,052 18% 405,009
Halton Region 8,463 574 1,990 696 5,083 20,238 187,221 31,434 7,384 2% 263,083
Hamilton Region 3,002 451 903 120 831 3,333 17,668 434,259 4,208 0% 464,775
External Area 4,337 3,018 6,830 1,724 2,304 4,068 5,270 4,961 1% 32,512
6% 0% 4% 3% 69% 11% 4% 1% 3% 100%
1,249,111 307,102 549,807 28,209 234,151 368,783 282,313 487,623 66,346 3,573,445
2011 TTS
% of Brampton Total Production
Total Attraction
Planning Districts% of Brampton
Total
Attraction
Total
Production
City of
Toronto
Durham
RegionYork Region
Town of
Caledon
City of
Brampton
City of
Mississauga
Halton
Region
Hamilton
RegionExternal Area
Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Group 6 Group 7 Group 8 Group 9
City of Toronto 1,162,482 54,117 161,172 7,033 34,408 76,337 26,119 5,669 14,914 13% 1,542,251
Durham Region 14,065 258,870 9,318 231 815 862 245 193 12,001 0% 296,600
York Region 95,740 23,143 398,695 4,935 11,424 9,518 3,715 1,173 15,211 4% 563,554
Town of Caledon 1,844 101 3,096 15,165 5,385 1,615 515 109 5,567 2% 33,397
City of Brampton 12,849 843 7,320 7,587 146,732 20,343 7,835 1,219 7,505 58% 212,233
City of Mississauga 51,059 2,975 13,575 4,210 45,742 279,306 38,987 4,990 13,357 18% 454,201
Halton Region 8,332 792 2,959 644 6,311 23,174 205,684 25,985 10,737 2% 284,618
Hamilton Region 2,012 172 821 201 787 2,239 13,873 236,816 5,385 0% 262,306
External Area 6,454 8,385 8,164 3,452 3,332 3,892 7,175 4,673 ‐ 1% 45,527
6% 0% 3% 4% 69% 10% 4% 1% 4% 100%
1,354,837 349,398 605,120 43,458 254,936 417,286 304,148 280,827 84,677 3,694,687
2011 M
odel
Total Attraction
Planning Districts% of Brampton
Total
Attraction
Total
Production
% of Brampton Total Production
Table 4: TTS vs. Updated Model - 2011 P.M. Peak Period Trips for all Modes*
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As shown in Table 4, the revised municipal adjustment factors (documented in Section 2.4) result in a very accurate fit of 2011 modeled transit trip distributions to the 2011 TTS data. The modeled 2011 transit trip attractions to the City of Brampton are marginally over reported (5%). This is not a significant discrepancy that would warrant any further adjustment to the transit parameters during Stage 1 of the model update. A similar comparison of transit trips was also completed using the second tier super zones, as shown in Table 6.
City of
Toronto
Durham
RegionYork Region
Town of
Caledon
City of
Brampton
City of
Mississauga
Halton
Region
Hamilton
RegionExternal Area
Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Group 6 Group 7 Group 8 Group 9
City of Toronto 361,005 2,636 26,169 51 4,633 11,569 725 698 1,136 28% 408,622
Durham Region 943 7,282 199 ‐ ‐ 70 30 ‐ 67 0% 8,591
York Region 8,725 27 12,353 ‐ 413 124 ‐ ‐ 16 2% 21,658
Town of Caledon 45 ‐ ‐ 28 143 ‐ ‐ ‐ 1% 216
City of Brampton 876 ‐ 122 51 8,244 1,189 18 ‐ 45 49% 10,545
City of Mississauga 5,431 ‐ 158 18 3,000 18,185 281 158 136 18% 27,367
Halton Region 50 ‐ ‐ ‐ 126 679 3,634 366 39 1% 4,894
Hamilton Region 419 37 24 ‐ 84 431 987 24,427 78 0% 26,487
External Area 220 45 66 17 198 463 95 27 1% 1,131
8% 0% 1% 0% 78% 11% 0% 0% 0% 100%
377,714 10,027 39,091 165 16,841 32,710 5,770 25,676 1,517 509,511
% of Brampton Total Production
Total Attraction
2011 TTS
Planning Districts% of Brampton
Total
Attraction
Total
Production
City of
Toronto
Durham
RegionYork Region
Town of
Caledon
City of
Brampton
City of
Mississauga
Halton
Region
Hamilton
RegionExternal Area
Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Group 6 Group 7 Group 8 Group 9
City of Toronto 334,435 3,016 37,356 1,835 4,756 13,387 2,220 1,182 ‐ 27% 398,187
Durham Region 501 9,329 13 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 0% 9,843
York Region 10,051 394 15,733 ‐ 689 98 ‐ 6 ‐ 4% 26,971
Town of Caledon 28 ‐ ‐ 1,134 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 0% 1,162
City of Brampton 859 ‐ 137 ‐ 8,581 1,119 56 ‐ ‐ 49% 10,752
City of Mississauga 3,982 30 161 ‐ 3,503 21,886 621 134 ‐ 20% 30,317
Halton Region 20 ‐ ‐ 11 53 846 5,005 831 ‐ 0% 6,766
Hamilton Region 229 ‐ 15 ‐ 30 223 584 26,847 ‐ 0% 27,928
External Area ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 0% ‐
8% 0% 1% 0% 80% 10% 1% 0% 0% 100%
350,105 12,769 53,415 2,980 17,612 37,559 8,486 29,000 ‐ 511,926
2011 M
odel
Total Attraction
Planning Districts% of Brampton
Total
Attraction
Total
Production
% of Brampton Total Production
Table 5: TTS vs. Updated Model - 2011 P.M. Peak Period Trips for Local Transit Only
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Although the total modeled transit trips (internal to Brampton) are within 4% of the 2011 observed transit trips, there are substantial variations between the super zones. The most significant discrepancy exists in trip attractions to super zone 1 (Downtown Brampton), which is under represented by close to 70%, and subsequently, super zone 2 and 3 which exhibit significantly higher trip attractions. The model does not contain any explicit input file or “lever” that can be used to correct this imbalance, thus a number of different methodologies can be implemented to address this issue. For example, introducing more refinement to the super zone geography (such as the tier 2 super zone system) within the City, will allow the implementation of different municipal adjustment factors. In addition, new categories in the transit mode split lookup table (ms_input.prn) can be created to capture the uniqueness of Downtown Brampton. The final methodology will be arrived upon after a detailed assessment and is best suited for Stage 2 of the model update.
Super Zone 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total Mod/Obs
1 151 317 366 318 661 2 1,815 1.10
2 75 172 225 161 240 1 874 1.33
3 87 84 184 147 78 - 580 0.65
4 236 665 971 915 840 2 3,629 1.19
5 156 293 165 189 822 5 1,630 0.84
6 2 10 6 6 29 - 53 1.06
Total 707 1,541 1,917 1,736 2,670 10 8,581 1.04
Mod/Obs 0.31 1.40 1.88 1.22 1.12 0.42 1.04 1.04
2011
Model
Super Zone 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total
1 598 204 156 245 454 - 1,657
2 137 200 - 73 247 - 657
3 286 85 304 192 23 - 890
4 700 299 480 762 773 24 3,038
5 531 310 78 156 854 - 1,929
6 27 - - - 23 - 50
Total 2,279 1,098 1,018 1,428 2,374 24 8,221
2011
TTS
Issue: Transit trip imbalance
Stage 2 Update
Table 6: TTS vs. Updated Model - 2011 P.M. Peak Period Transit Trips (City of Brampton Only)
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3.6 Assignment
3.6.1 Auto Assignment The model’s auto performance was tested against a number of screenlines across the City. The screenlines are shown in Figure 5.
ns Table 7 and Table 8 compare the model’s auto assignment against observed counts for the P.M. peak hour.
Figure 5: Screenline Definitions
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* The GEH statistic is used to measure the amount of error in the simulated results versus the actual observed volumes. Good – GEH<5; Acceptable – 5<GEH<10; Not Acceptable – GEH>10
Good – GEH<5; Acceptable – 5<GEH<10; Not Acceptable – GEH>10
ID Target (Obs.) Model Modelled Ratio
# Auto Volume Capacity Volume Model/Obs
52A - Caledon boundary - W. Churchill to Heart Lake Northbound 31 2,164 9,150 2,184 20 1.01 0.4
52B - Hwy 410 South of Mayfield Northbound 61 1,697 3,600 2,230 533 1.31 12.0
52C - Caledon boundary - Dixie to Hwy 50 Northbound 63 3,457 9,200 4,663 1,206 1.35 18.9
South of Wanlass/Conservation Drive - W. Churchill to Heart Lake Northbound 11 3,456 9,450 2,423 -1,033 0.70 19.0
South of Countryside - Dixie to Hwy 50 Northbound 13 2,459 6,600 2,240 -219 0.91 4.5
84A - South of Bovaird - Heritage to South Lake Northbound 41 5,561 10,050 5,323 -238 0.96 3.2
84B - Hwy 410 South of Bovaird - Northbound 43 4,574 5,400 4,601 27 1.01 0.4
84C- South of Bovaird/Castlemore - Nasmith to Clarkway Northbound 45 5,897 13,800 7,275 1,378 1.23 17.0
South of Queen - W. Churchill to Rutherford Northbound 1 6,320 8,950 6,515 195 1.03 2.4
South of Queen - West Rd to Hwy 50 Northbound 5 4,705 7,300 4,581 -124 0.97 1.8
South of Steeles - W. Churchill to Hwy 410 Northbound 51 5,527 8,550 5,415 -112 0.98 1.5
42- Brampton/Mississauga Northbound 21 26,259 32,300 23,866 -2,393 0.91 15.1
31A- Brampton/Halton Westbound 33 7,093 11,850 8,065 972 1.14 11.2
West of Chinguacousy/Mavis Westbound 53 1,502 4,800 1,541 39 1.03 1.0
Highway 407 & Steeles Av at the Credit River Westbound 55 5,681 9,000 6,976 1,295 1.23 16.3
72A - E. of Hurontario Westbound 7 15,775 21,100 16,313 538 1.03 4.2
73- East of Hwy 410 Westbound 23 19,321 27,800 20,462 1,141 1.06 8.1
33B - Brampton/York Westbound 9 13,156 17,800 13,240 84 1.01 0.7
134,604 216,700 137,913 3,309 1.02 9.0
Model-Obs GEHScreenline
PM Peak Hour
Total
ID Target Model Modelled Ratio
# Auto Volume Capacity Solume Model/Obs
52A - Caledon boundary - W. Churchill to Heart Lake Southbound 32 1,817 7,350 1,513 -304 0.83 7.5
52B - Hwy 410 South of Mayfield Southbound 62 974 3,600 981 7 1.01 0.2
52C - Caledon boundary - Dixie to Hwy 50 Southbound 64 2,185 9,200 2,766 581 1.27 11.7
South of Wanlass/Conservation Drive - W. Churchill to Heart Lake Southbound 12 2,995 9,450 1,853 -1,142 0.62 23.2
South of Countryside - Dixie to Hwy 50 Southbound 14 1,609 6,600 1,127 -482 0.70 13.0
84A - South of Bovaird - Heritage to South Lake Southbound 42 3,814 10,050 3,590 -224 0.94 3.7
84B - Hwy 410 South of Bovaird - Southbound 44 2,293 5,400 3,228 935 1.41 17.8
84C- South of Bovaird/Castlemore - Nasmith to Clarkway Southbound 46 4,601 13,800 4,289 -312 0.93 4.7
South of Queen - W. Churchill to Rutherford Southbound 2 4,048 8,950 3,938 -110 0.97 1.7
South of Queen - West Rd to Hwy 50 Southbound 6 2,771 7,300 2,522 -249 0.91 4.8
South of Steeles - W. Churchill to Hwy 410 Southbound 52 4,014 8,550 3,762 -252 0.94 4.0
42- Brampton/Mississauga Southbound 22 16,322 32,300 15,160 -1,162 0.93 9.3
31A- Brampton/Halton Eastbound 34 4,110 11,850 5,243 1,133 1.28 16.6
West of Chinguacousy/Mavis Eastbound 54 1,195 4,800 1,188 -7 0.99 0.2
Highway 407 & Steeles Av at the Credit River Eastbound 56 4,667 9,000 5,662 995 1.21 13.8
72A - E. of Hurontario Eastbound 8 13,065 20,600 11,722 -1,343 0.90 12.1
73- East of Hwy 410 Eastbound 24 13,179 26,400 14,346 1,167 1.09 9.9
33B - Brampton/York Eastbound 10 9,474 17,800 10,361 887 1.09 8.9
93,132 213,000 93,251 119 1.00 0.4
Screenline
PM Peak Hour
SUM
Model-Obs GEH
Table 7: P.M. Peak Hour and Peak Direction Comparison of Observed vs. Updated Model Auto Assignment
Table 8: P.M. Peak Hour and Off-Peak Direction Comparison of Observed vs. Updated Model Auto Assignment
*
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Given the strategic nature of the BSGM and the significant variation that can be expected at individual screenlines due to localized congestion and routing choices, the model performs reasonably well. Of note, the original (prior to the updates listed in this report) 2011 model under reported 2,800 vehicles in the peak direction, and over reported 460 vehicles in the off-peak direction. Table 6 and 7 show that there exist substantial discrepancies at some individual screenlines (GEH>10). However, none of those screenlines are operating close to capacity, which suggests that the model’s performance is not distorting the current capacity constraints in the system. Figure 6 shows the 2011 observed and modeled volume-to-capacity ratios (v/c) across the screenlines, for the peak direction.
In the peak direction, only Screenline # 43 and Screenline # 21 have an observed v/c ratio of greater than 0.8 in; and, only screenline #43 exhibits a modeled v/c ratio of greater than 0.8. The analysis suggests that there is enough surplus capacity in the system to handle the P.M. peak hour demands. Of note, the screenlines used in the model traverse a wide area with substantially varying land uses. This tends to smooth out capacity deficiencies in the system. A problem compounded by the fact that strategic link level models do not capture local traffic operation issues well.
Figure 6: 2011 Updated Model and Observed Screenline VC Ratios - Peak Direction
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Thus, temporary congestion along key corridors such as Queen Street is not accurately represented through the screenline analysis. In the off-peak direction all the screenlines exhibit a v/c ratio of lesser than 0.8. Table 9 documents some key system metrics of the 2011 road network. These metrics will be also be used for benchmarking future network performance. Table 9: 2011 Updated Model System Metrics
System Metrics Year: 2011
Daily Vehicle Kilometers Traveled (VKT)* 10,819,960
Daily Vehicle Hours Travelled (VHT)* 199,198
Total Lane Kms 3,565
% VKT on v/c>0.8 3,084,929
% VHT on v/c>0.8 59,357
% Congested Lane Kms (v/c>0.8) 271
GHG Emissions 1141 kt**
*peak hour to daily conversion done using a multiplier of 10 **GHG emissions estimated for auto mode only
3.6.2 Highway 407 Performance Highway 407 runs along the southern boundary of the City of Brampton and plays a significant role in moving traffic to, from, and through the City. Given its importance and unique nature (toll road), a comparison of the 2011 modeled P.M. peak hour volumes and observed traffic was completed and is presented below in Table 10. Table 10: Comparison of Highway 407 P.M. Peak Hour Assignment - Updated Model to Observed Counts
Station Location
2011 Cordon Count 2011 Modeled GEH
EB WB EB WB EB WB
Highway 407 at Peel/York Boundary 5,323 8,148 6,066 6,072 10 25
Highway 407 East of Highway 410 3,561 5,244 5,307 7,068 26 23
Highway 407 East of Highway 10 3,762 5,942 4,881 7,195 17 15
Highway 407 at Credit River 3,372 4,613 4,511 6,016 18 19
Highway 407 West of Winston Churchill Blvd
1,912 3,994 3,609 5,238 32 18
Total 17,930 27,941 24,374 31,589 44 21
Good – GEH<5; Acceptable – 5<GEH<10; Not Acceptable – GEH>10 Results presented in Table 9 show that the model significantly over estimates 2011 P.M. peak hour volumes along Highway 407. This problem is not specific to the BSGM only; it is systemic to all the models built in the GTHA. The issues surrounding this over estimation are both fundamental (such as value-of-time estimates, different users have different value-of-times etc.) and operational (ramp penalties etc.).
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Further, travel behavior generally suggests that users on average will not use a toll highway to make short distance trips given the explicit out-of-pocket costs associated with the trip. Using this as a basis, the trip length frequency distribution along Highway 407 was computed for the updated 2011 model, and is shown in Figure 7.
The updated 2011 model estimates an average trip length of 11.36 kms for trips along Highway 407, as compared to an average of 19.48 kms reported by the Ministry of Transportation (MTO) at the 17th International EMME Users Conference (2003). The increase in congestion on the network between the 2003 Study and 2011 would have subsequently resulted in a rise in value-of-time relative to toll costs, thus making Highway 407 potentially more attractive to short distance trips; however, a nearly 41% increase in trip lengths is highly unlikely. The significant over estimation of modeled volumes along Hwy 407 (Table 9) and the relatively short average trip lengths (Figure 6) suggests that the highway is being used by a number of short distance trips. We strongly recommend addressing this issue in Stage 2 of the model update, using a “step function” approach that we have recently implemented for the York Region model.
Average Travel Length: 11.36 kms
Issue: Hwy 407 over estimation
Stage 2 Update
Figure 7: 2011 Updated Trip Length Frequency Distribution - Highway 407
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3.6.3 Travel Times in Key Corridors Modeled travel times along key corridors in the City were compared to the 2010 Travel Time Survey conducted by MTO, and the results are presented in Table 11. The results reflect the updates that were carried out to the volume-delay-function definitions (shown in Appendix A), and the refinement of the auto and transit network.
The updated 2011 model shows significant improvement over the original 2011 model, although the total congested travel times (227 mins vs. 266.5 mins) are 15% faster than observed, in the peak direction. Of note, in the original 2011 model, the estimated congested travel times were 22% (207.8 mins vs. 266.57 mins) faster than observed values, in the peak direction. As shown in Table 10 there is room for improving the model’s congested travel time estimates. The improvements can be implemented by introducing node delays in the model or through an accurate representation of traffic operations in the corridor by adjusting link capacity. A table showing potential per lane capacity estimates stratified by road classification, surrounding land use, and traffic operations is presented in Appendix D, for discussion purposes. The appropriate methodology will be reviewed and implemented in Stage 2 of the model update.
Travel Time Survey 2011 Model Model / Survey Travel Time Survey 2011 Model Model / Survey
Airport Rd Steeles Ave and Mayfield Rd 12.10 12.42 1.03 15.12 9.47 0.63
Bovaird Dr Adamson St and Airport Rd 26.15 20.75 0.79 26.25 18.38 0.70
Bramalea Rd Steeles Ave and Bovaird Dr 8.53 7.90 0.93 10.02 7.07 0.71
Castlemore Rd Airport Rd and County Road 50 8.28 6.88 0.83 8.23 6.81 0.83
Chinguacousy Dr Steeles Ave and Mayfield Rd 13.33 13.18 0.99 13.43 11.85 0.88
Dixie Rd Hwy 407 and Mayfield Rd 15.72 13.31 0.85 14.08 12.12 0.86
Goreway Dr Steeles Ave and Castlemore Rd 7.82 8.24 1.05 8.05 6.05 0.75
Hurontario St /Main St
Derry Rd and Mayfield Rd 23.53 17.80 0.76 14.22 15.15 1.07
Hwy 50 Steeles Ave and Mayfield Rd 13.43 14.94 1.11 11.73 10.86 0.93
Kennedy Rd Derry Rd and Queen St 11.63 7.67 0.66 8.30 6.05 0.73
Mayfield Rd Winston Churchill Blvd and Hwy 50 26.23 25.03 0.95 26.97 23.22 0.86
Mississauga Rd Steeles Ave and Mayfield Rd 13.15 12.09 0.92 10.28 9.88 0.96
Queen St/Embleton Rd Winston Churchill Blvd and Hwy 50 34.87 27.24 0.78 33.27 25.11 0.75
Steeles Ave Winston Churchill Blvd and Hwy 50 34.62 23.94 0.69 29.58 20.90 0.71
The Gore Rd Castlemore Rd and Hwy 50 7.53 6.37 0.85 7.05 5.29 0.75
Winston Churchill Blvd Steeles Ave and Guelph St 9.65 9.78 1.01 8.55 8.15 0.95
266.57 227.54 0.85 245.13 196.36 0.80
Model / Survey
44% 7 within 10% 4 25%
69% 11 within 20% 8 50%
88% 14 within 30% 15 94%
Model / Survey
31% 5 within 10% 1 6%
50% 8 within 20% 5 31%
88% 14 within 30% 9 56%
Peak Direction Off‐Peak Direction
Summarized Results ‐ 2011 Model Post Update
Summarized Results ‐ 2011 Original Model
Total
Peak Direction Off‐Peak Direction
Roadway SegmentPeak Direction (N/W) Off-Peak Direction (S/E)
Issue: Lower travel times
Stage 2 Update
Table 11: 2011 Updated Model Travel Time Comparisons
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3.6.4 Transit Assignment The City of Brampton’s transit system is composed of two primary services. First, regular bus services; and second, the express Zum service along Main /Hurontario Street, and Queen Street. Figure 8 shows the P.M. peak period ridership across all the transit services within the City.
The key transit conduits in the City lie along existing and planned Zum corridors like Queen Street, Main/Hurontario Street, Steeles Avenue, and Bovaird Drive. Since the Steeles Avenue service started post 2011 it is highlighted as a future corridor (dashed line) along with the service on Bovaird Drive that is planned for early 2014. Table 12 compares the modeled to observed 2011 boardings in the P.M. peak period for 43 different transit routes in the City, including the Queen Street and Main/Hurontario Street Zum. The graph at the bottom of the table displays the difference between the modeled and observed boardings for each of the 43 transit lines. The blue bar represents higher model boardings, whereas the red bar represents lower model boardings. The BSGM estimates 975 more peak period boardings along the Edenbrook line when compared to observed counts. This over estimation is primarily due to the transit trip distribution patterns witnessed in Table 5, where transit trip attractions to super zone # 2 and # 3 were significantly over reported. Assessing the BSGM’s transit performance coupled with the transit trip distribution patterns it becomes apparent that either the 2011 TTS data or the 2011 boarding data is inaccurate. This is because although the BSGM is producing more P.M. peak
Figure 8: P.M. Peak Period Ridership in the City of Brampton - 2011 Updated Model
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period transit trips, it is 8% lower on the total boardings, especially in some key corridors such as Steeles Avenue and Queen Street. Given the rigor instituted by the City in collecting transit data it is reasonable to assume that the 2011 TTS, which is currently in a pre-release format, is under predicting P.M. peak period transit travel to, from, and within the City. The original 2011 P.M. peak period model under reported boardings by close to 15%.
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1 Queen 1,843 631 0.34 34
2 Main 771 809 1.05 1
3 McLaughlin 814 480 0.59 13
4 Chinguacousy 1,426 1,186 0.83 7
5 Bovaird 1,847 2,135 1.16 6
7 Kennedy 1,985 2,174 1.10 4
8 Centre 596 127 0.21 25
9 Vodden 357 941 2.64 23
10 South Industrial 161 73 0.46 8
11 Steeles 3,168 2,079 0.66 21
12 Grenoble 309 514 1.66 10
13 Avondale 110 8 0.07 13
14 Torbram 1,206 2,246 1.86 25
15 Bramalea 1,220 983 0.81 7
16 Southgate 197 38 0.19 15
17 Howden 323 111 0.34 14
18 Dixie 1,562 1,679 1.07 3
19 Fernforest 402 160 0.40 14
20 East Industrial 147 25 0.17 13
21 Heart Lake 38 30 0.80 1
23 Sandalwood 984 545 0.55 16
24 Van Kirk 223 524 2.35 16
25 Edenbrook 95 981 10.33 38
29 Williams 594 454 0.76 6
30 Airport Road 1,089 1,026 0.94 2
31 McVean 49 136 2.77 9
32 Father Tobin 107 114 1.06 1
33 Peter Robertson 68 84 1.23 2
40 Central Industrial 88 50 0.56 5
50 Gore Road 411 295 0.72 6
51 Steeles West 419 439 1.05 1
52 McMurchy 712 32 0.04 35
53 Oaklea 271 189 0.70 5
54 James Potter 394 172 0.44 13
92 Bramalea GO 29 87 3.00 8
115 Airport EXPRESS 169 508 3.00 18
501 Zum Queen 3,660 2,998 0.82 11
502 Zum Main 2,108 2,638 1.25 11
29,952 27,701 0.92 13Total
NumberModel
BoardingsModel /
ObservedRoute GEH
2011 Observed Boardings
Table 12: P.M. Peak Period Modeled vs. Observed Boardings - 2011
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Figure 9 highlights nodes with significant boardings and alightings in the City. Nodes with the highest transit activity lie along Steeles Avenue, Main/Hurontario Street, and along Bovaird Drive west of McLaughlin Road, which are all existing or planned Zum corridors, thus corroborating the transit planning efforts being undertaken by the City.
3.6.5 Zum Performance Results in Table 12 indicated that the BSGM is estimating 18% fewer boardings along Queen Street Zum and close to 25% more boardings along Main/Hurontario Street. The local transit trip distributions (Section 2.5) between the City of Brampton and the rest of the GTHA (Table 4), as well as within the City of Brampton (Table 5) do not highlight any significant underreporting of transit trips that could explain the fewer boardings being witnessed on Queen Street Zum. However, there are a number of other transit routes operating in the Queen Street corridor that could be potentially competing with the Zum system. Given that in the future all non-express routes will be removed from the Zum corridors this “cannibalizing” of trips is not expected to be an issue. The Main/Hurontario Street Zum is over reporting boardings by a little over 500 in the P.M. peak period, which can be primarily attributed to the higher trip attractions from the City of Mississauga. This is not a very critical issue and is expected to resolve itself as further refinements are carried out in Stage 2 of the model update.
1,000
2,000
2,500
Figure 9: 2011 P.M. Peak Period Updated Model Boardings and Alightings
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Appendix A. Changes to Auto Network
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17
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54
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54
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33
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53
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33
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33
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00
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0 000
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0 000
00
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00
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00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Links with VDF Update
Links without VDF Update
Legend
Number closer to link indicates the updated VDF
VDF Update
VDF Changes:
fd12 = ul2 * 80 (20% reduction in freeflow speeds)fd33 = ul2 * 90 (10% reduction in freeflow speeds)fd34 = ul2 * 90 (10% reduction in freeflow speeds)
60
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8080
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110
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80
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50
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120
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90
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120
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60
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60
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60
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40
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120
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40
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60
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60
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40
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60
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60
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120
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60
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80
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80
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60
60
60
60
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60
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60
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60
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50
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Links with Speed Update
Links without Speed Update
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Number closer to link indicates the updated speed
Speed Update
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400
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900
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800
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800
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900
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500
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700
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900
900
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550
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500
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900
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400
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700
700
700
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500
500
500
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900
900
900
900
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1800
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500
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800
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700
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400
400
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400
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500
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400
400
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400
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1800
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400
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Links with Lane Capacity Update
Links without Lane Capacity Update
Legend
Number closer to link indicates the updated lane capacity
Lane Capacity Update
22 2
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11
1
1
11
2
2
22
2 2
2
1
1
22
22
22
22
22
22
1 1
2
1
1
11
22
2 2
2 2
1
1
22
2 2
22
22
22
11
22
22
22
22
2 2
2
2
2
2
1 1
11
2
2
22
11
1
1
2 2
22
1 1
11
22
2 2
11
11
1
1
22
22
1
1
2 2
11
22
22
22
22
11
2
2
00
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
11
1 1
11
11
11
11
11
1
1
1 1
11
1
1
1
1 1
1 1
11
1
1
11
1 1
1
1
2
2
11
11
1
1
1 1
1
1
11
1
1
22
2
2
2 222 22
2 2
2
2
11
11
11
11
11
22
55
22
22
5
522
33
4
4
22
22
2 22 2
22 2
2
22
22
4422
222
2
44
11
11
22
22
22
00
00
00
0 000
00
00
0 000
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Links with Lane Number Update
Links without Lane Number Update
Legend
Number closer to link indicates the updated lane number
Number of Lanes Update
MODEL VALIDATION | NOVEMBER 2013
25
CITY OF BRAMPTON
TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN UPDATE
Appendix B. Changes to Transit Network
MODEL VALIDATION | NOVEMBER 2013
26
CITY OF BRAMPTON
TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN UPDATE
Transit Lines with Updated Headways based on 2011 Frequency Guide
2 Main 20 10
3 McLaughlin 15 20
4 Chinguacousy 10 15
5 Bovaird 10 20
14 Torbram 10 20
15 Bramalea 10 30
16 Southgate 30 20
19 Fernforest 20 30
23 Sandalwood 15 30
50 Gore Road 20 40
52 McMurchy 20 15
Original Headwaysin Model
2011Frequency Guide
Route Number Route Name
New Transit Lines
501
501A
502 Zum Main
21 Heart Lake
29 Williams
31 McVean
32 Father Tobin
33 Peter Robertson
51 Steeles West
53 Oaklea
54 James Potter
115 Airport EXPRESS
Route Number Route Name
Zum Queen
Deleted Transit Lines
6 Mackay
22 Springdale
26 Fletchers Meadow
77 Finch Subway
91 GO A
Route Number Route Name
MODEL VALIDATION | NOVEMBER 2013
27
CITY OF BRAMPTON
TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN UPDATE
MODEL VALIDATION | NOVEMBER 2013
28
CITY OF BRAMPTON
TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN UPDATE
Appendix C. Special Generators
16231624
1625
1626
1627
1628
1629
1630
1631
1632
1633
1634
1635
1636
1637
16381639
1640
1641
1642
1643
1644
1645
16461647
1648
1649
1650
1651
1652
1653
1654
1655
1656
1657 1658
1659
1660 1661
16621663
1664
1665
1666
1667 1668
1669 1670 16711672
1673
1674
1675
16761677
1678
1679 1680
1681
1682
1683
1684
1685
16861687
1717
17181719
1720
1721
1722
1723
1724
1725
1726
1727
1728
17291730
1731
17321733
1734
1735
1736
1737
1738 1739 17401741
1742
1743 1744
1745
1747
1748
1749
1750
1801
1802
1803
18041805
1806 1807
1808
1809
1810 1811
1812
18131814
1815
1816
1817 18181819
1820
1821
18221823
1824
18251826
1827 1828
1829 1830
1831
1832
1833
1834
18351836
1837
1838
1839
18401841
1842
1843
1844
1845 18461847
1848
1849
18501851
1852
18531854
1855
18561857
1858
1859
1860
18611862
1863
1864
1865
1866
1867
1868
1869
1870
1871
1872
18731874
1875
1876
1877
1878 1879
1880
1881
1882
1883
1884
1885
18861887
1888
1889
1890
1891
1892
1893
1894
1895
1896
1897
1898
1899
1900
1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
19071908
1909
1910
1911
19121913
1914
19151916
1917
19181919
1920
1921
1922
1923 1924
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938 1939
1940
Special Generators
Legend:
Special Generators
Trinity Commons
Bramalea City CentreBrampton Civic Centre
Shoppers World
Sheridan CollegeBrampton Campus
MODEL VALIDATION | NOVEMBER 2013
29
CITY OF BRAMPTON
TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN UPDATE
Appendix D. Road Capacity Classification
MODEL VALIDATION | NOVEMBER 2013
30
CITY OF BRAMPTON
TRANSPORTATION MASTER PLAN UPDATE
No TWLTL
Area
Operational Class
Adjacent Lane Use
Traffic Operational Conditions
Speed
Lanes /
Direction
Capacity/Lane
TWCLR (Y
or N)
Capacity / Lane
N/A
Freeway
N/A
90‐110
N/A
1800
N/A
1800
N/A
Urban
Expressway
N/A
90‐110
N/A
1800
N/A
1800
N/A
Freeway Ram
pN/A
70
N/A
1400
N/A
1400
N/A
Toll Highway
N/A
90‐110
N/A
1800
N/A
1800
N/A
Toll Highway Ram
pN/A
70
N/A
1400
N/A
1400
N/A
Freeway/Expressway HOV
N/A
90‐110
N/A
1800
N/A
1800
N/A
Freeway/Expressway HOV Ram
pN/A
70
N/A
1400
N/A
1400
N/A
Freeway/Expressway Truck Only
N/A
11000
N/A
1000
21000
N/A
1000
60‐70
1800
Y900
60‐70
2825
Y875
60‐70
3850
N/A
850
60
1700
Y800
60
2725
Y775
60
3750
N/A
750
50‐60
1600
Y700
50‐60
2625
Y675
50‐60
3650
N/A
650
50
1500
Y600
50
2525
Y575
50
3550
N/A
550
40‐50
1
40‐50
2
Local Streets
Centroid connectors
40
19999
WITH TWLTL
Brampton Transportation M
aster Plan ‐ Road
Classification System (FO
R DISCUSSION PURPOSES)
Low to medium density
residential/commercial development
with direct access
All‐way stops and other traffic
calm
ing measures
Roads providing access to local streets
Downtown/City Centre Local Roads
400
450
Close signal spacing, occassional
illegal parking causing
interference, some transit service
Low to medium density
residential/commercial development
with direct access
Collector Road
Presence of heavy transit and
cyclists
Roads in high density
office/commerical (CBD) with high
pedestrian activity, parking, etc.
Downtown/City Centre Collectors
Closer signal spacing, lower level
of signal coordination and
greentime allocation, some transit
service
Major Urban
Arterial
Principle/M
ajor Arterial
Low to medium density
residential/commercial development
with some access
Long signal spacing and good
signal coordination/regression
Urban
Rural
Undivided Highway/Arterial
Roads thorugh
mostly vacant lands or
farm
land
80
**N
ote:
A c
apac
ity p
er la
ne is
use
d fo
r m
odel
ing
purp
oses
.
Road
s thr
ough
mos
tly v
acan
t lan
ds o
rfa
rmla
nd