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THE WORLD BANK
Cities and Climate Change
Marcus Lee Urban Development Unit, The World Bank www.worldbank.org/urban
UNU-WIDER Conference 2012 Climate Change and Development Policy Greening Cities in Developing Countries
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Shenzen 30 years ago Shenzhen today
Urbanization continues apace across much of the world – more than 1 million new resident weekly
Source for data: WHO – Global Health Observatory, 2012
Source for images: www.shenzenparty.com
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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 urba
n po
pula
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ns)
perc
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urban population percent urban
Africa is the next frontier for urbanization – take Nairobi, for example
Created by: Henry Jewell (FEUUR), Katie McWilliams and Alex Stoicof, SDNIS-World Bank
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Source: WDR2009
Cities are drivers of economic growth and prosperity – although urban poverty remains a challenge
Percentage of national GDP generated in urban areas (McKinsey 2012): US: 85% China: 78% Western Europe: 65%
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Up to 80% of global GHG emissions are ultimately attributable to the residents of cities (including embodied emissions) Cities account for 67% of global energy consumption today (IEA 2009)
Cities need to build infrastructure now, to support the large population inflow, making them the fastest growing source of GHG emissions
Cities continuously face the challenge to balance development and environmental needs
Cities are essential for global climate change mitigation
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China
Brazil
Germany
India
Japan
United States
Sweden
Korea, Rep. South Africa
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15 35 55 75Urban population (% of total)
Source: World Development Indicators Bubble size corresponds to total carbon dioxide emissions (kilotons)
Carbon dioxide emissions, 1967-2005 (tons per capita)
Global trends in income, urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions
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Source: World Development Report, World Bank 2010 (World Bank Urban Strategy, 2009).
Urban form and density significantly impact energy consumption
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Decisions today are limited by decisions in the past
Source: Bertaud, A., and T. Pode, Jr., Density in Atlanta: Implications for Traffic and Transit (Los Angeles: Reason Foundation, 2007).
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Few cities with high incomes and low emissions…
Source: World Bank, Towards a Partnership for Sustainable Cities (forthcoming)
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Sectoral analysis of GHG emissions from selected cities
Source: World Bank, 2010.
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An international standard is essential for establishing baselines and monitoring progress
Supported by UNEP, UN-HABITAT, World Bank and World Resources Institute http://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities
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Elements of a city-wide approach to mitigation efforts
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A city-wide approach to carbon finance enables aggregation of city GHG reductions across sectors
Rationale: overcome hurdle of high transaction costs for individual CDM Project Activities (CPAs) in a given city
The door is now open for city-wide Programmes of Activities (PoAs)
• Cancun: Decision 3/CMP.6 – Parties requested CDM Executive Board (EB) to simplify PoAs for multiple methodologies, “including for possible city-wide programmes”
• Sept 2011: EB 63/Annex 4 – Standard for Application of Multiple CDM Methodologies for PoAs
VCS generally accepts all CDM rules, so now – in principle – could validate a city-wide project
Rio de Janeiro is also developing and implementing its Low Carbon City
Development Program – enables standardized MRV of emissions reductions
Yet, uncertainty on post-2012 regime, and globally depressed carbon prices
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TRANSPORT BUILDINGS PUBLIC LIGHTING
WATER & WASTEWATER
POWER & HEATING
SOLID WASTE
Example: Tool for Rapid Assessment of City Energy (TRACE)
An Innovative Decision Support Tool for Evaluating Energy Efficiency Opportunities in Cities
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Urban vulnerability to climate change
CITIES IN HIGHLY IMPACTED REGIONS: tropical, sub-tropical ecosystems, arid and water-stressed countries, island states
COASTAL CITIES: all coastal cities, particularly those in deltaic environments, those with high levels of land-reclamation
CITIES IN LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: where institutional resilience, financial resources and technical capacity are scarce
Djibouti-Ville (Bigio)/Jakarta (Ratnaningsih)
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Climate change impacts on cities DIRECT
Sea level rise Flooding and landslides Heat waves Increased “heat island
effect” Water scarcity Decreasing water
quality Worsening air quality Ground ozone
formation
INDIRECT
Frequency, intensity of natural disasters
Accelerated urbanization Environmental refugees Increased energy
demand for heating or cooling
Epidemics, worsening public health
Availability and pricing of food
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SECTOR Climate Scenario DRY WET Agriculture, forestry, fisheries 2.5 2.6
Water supply 19.7 14.4 Human health 1.5 2.0 Coastal zones 27.6 28.5 Infrastructure 13.0 27.5 Extreme events 6.4 6.7 Total 71.2 81.5 Adding costs differently 70.0 100.0 2005 Constant Prices, 0% Discounting Source: World Bank 2010, Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change
Annual global costs of adaptation, by sector
2010-2050, in USD billions
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Urban Risk Assessment
Institutional Assessment
Hazard Assessment
Socioeconomic Assessment
Legal Foundations
National/Regional Frameworks
Basic Information ; Land Use, Basic
Services, Geophysical
Demographic Information
Institutional mapping for disaster risk and
climate change
Hazard analysis for city
Socioeconomic analysis of city
residents
Interventions analysis; key
resources, policies, tools, programs,
coordination
Hazard exposure maps
Identification of vulnerable areas
Interventions gap analysis
Risk modeling for natural hazards and
climate change
Community profiles and Slum mapping
Adaptive capacity assessments; fiscal transfers
Probabilistic risk assessment software
Household hazard and vulnerability surveys
COST
COMPLEXITY
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• Suggests steps for integrated climate change adaptation and ways to build partnerships
• Gives actual examples of actions at the local level
• Proposes a roadmap for adaptation and suggests performance indicators
• Analyzes financial challenges and opportunities for adaptation at the city level
• Emphasizes cross-sectoral collaboration and outlines 9 different sectors (informal settlements, transportation, public health, etc.)
PDF document at http://go.worldbank.org/F6TB1XE3M0
• Guide for urban practitioners & mayors to understand specifics and importance of engaging in climate change adaptation at the city level
• Provides practical insights about climate change for cities in developing countries, addressing main challenges & possible opportunities
Guide to Climate Change Adaptation in Cities
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Climate Change, Disaster Risk, and the Urban Poor
Some key findings o The urban poor are particularly vulnerable
to climate change and natural hazards due to where they live within cities and the lack of reliable basic services.
o Local governments play a vital role in providing basic services to address risks and increase resilience of the urban poor.
o Adapting to climate change and reducing disaster risk is best address and sustained through integration with existing urban planning and management.
o Significant financial support is needed; cities need to leverage existing and new resources to meet shortfalls in service delivery and basic infrastructure
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Look to climate finance more broadly, but there is less available than commonly thought
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UNDP-WB effort: www.climatefinanceoptions.org
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This module is part of a learning course on CDM PoA
Learning: Climate Finance opportunities in cities
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• Matching: A ‘professional dating’ service that automatically matches urban policymakers, decision makers and technical professionals to each other worldwide.
• Messaging: Get in direct contact with your counterparts in other cities.
• Communities of Practice: Community-based Q&A.
1. CONNECTIONS
• Exchange: Tightly-focused videoconferences on the most knotty knowledge gaps. • Policy insights: New collaborative research on policy-relevant questions.
• Briefings: Pithy summaries of knowledge exchange events, and expert viewpoints.
2. KNOWLEDGE
• Indicators: Common indicators to benchmark cities for international comparisons. • Integration with Open311 and Google: Open access to municipal-level data.
3. CITIES DATA
Our Objective UrbanKnowledge.Org aims to put the world’s best knowledge and data in the hands of policymakers and practitioners, in order to harness urban growth for better development outcomes.
Our 3 Components
Our 4 Thematic Pillars
ECONOMIC: rural-to-urban transition. Happens once in a country's lifetime ...but how can it best be facilitated for economic growth?
ENVIRONMENTAL: sustainable urban growth Low-density cities are hardwiring environmental costs ...so how to manage urbanization to improve sustainability?
GOVERNANCE: creating accountable cities and towns Poorly governed cities don’t deliver on the promise of urbanization ...so what systems of governance are suited for managing urbanization?
Pillar 1 Pillar 2 Pillar 3 Pillar 4
SOCIAL: social inclusion and mobility Urbanization embodies structural inequalities ...so how to incorporate the urban poor in a city's economic fabric?
Meet our Partners:
And you?
Urbanization Knowledge Platform
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Thank You
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