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8/13/2019 Chp04 Currency Forwards and Futures
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K.Cuthbertson, D.Nitzsche 1
Version 1/9/2001
FINANCIAL ENGINEERING:
DERIVATIVES AND RISK MANAGEMENT(J. Wiley, 2001)
K. Cuthbertson and D. Nitzsche
LECTURE
Forward and Futures Marketsin Foreign Currency
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K.Cuthbertson, D.Nitzsche 2
Forward Market in Foreign Currency
Covered Interest Parity
Creating a Synthetic Forward Contract
Foreign Currency Futures
Topics
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K.Cuthbertson, D.Nitzsche 3
Forward Market in Foreign Currency
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K.Cuthbertson, D.Nitzsche 4
Forward Market
Contract made today for delivery in the future
Forward rate is price agreed, today
eg. One -year Forward rate = 1.5 $ /
Agree to purchase 100 s forward
In 1-year, receive 100
and pay-out $150
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Forward Rates (Quotes)
Yen / $ Yen / $
Spot 131.05-131.15
spotspread
0.10
1m forwd
discount
0.01-0.03 spread on
discount
0.02
1m forwdrate
131.06-131.18
1m forwdspread
0.12
Rule of thumb. Here discount / premium should be added so that:forward spread > spot spread
Premium (discount) % = ( premium / spot rate ) x ( 365 / m )x 100
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Covered Interest Parity
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Covered Interest Parity
CIP determines the forward rate F and CIP holds when:
Interest differential (in favour of the UK)
= forward discount on sterling
(or, forward premium on the $)
( rUK- rUS) / ( 1 + rUS) = ( F - S ) / S
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An Example of CIP
The following set of prices are consistent with CIP
rUK= 0.11 (11 %) rUS = 0.10 (10 %)
S = 0.666666 / $ (I.e. 1.5 $ / )
Then F must equal:
F = 0.67272726 / $ ie. 1.486486 $ /
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Covered Interest Parity (CIP)
CHECK: CIP equation holds
Interest differential in favour of UK
( rUK- rUS) / ( 1 + rUS) = (0.11 -0. 10) / 1.10
= 0.0091 (= 0.91%)
Forward premium on the dollar (discount on )
= ( F - S ) / S = 0.91%
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CIPreturn to investment in US or UK are equal
1) Invest in UK TVuk = 100 (1. 11) = 111
= A ( 1 + rUK)
2) Invest in US
100 to $ ( 100 / 0.6666) = $150
At end year $( 100 / 0.6666 )(1.10) = $165Forward Contract negotiated today
Certain TV (in s) from investing in USA:
TVus = [( 100 / 0.666 ) . (1.10) ] 0.6727 = 111= [ (A / S ) (1 + rUS) ]. F
Hence : TVuk= 111= TVUS= 111
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Covered Interest Parity (Algebra/Derivation)
Equate riskless returns ( in )
(1) TVuk = A ( 1 + rUK)(2) TVus = [ ( A / S ) ( 1 + rUS) ]. F
F = S ( 1 + rUK) / ( 1 + rUS)
or F / S = ( 1 + rUK) / ( 1 + rUS)
Subtract 1 from each side:
( F -S ) / S = ( rUK- rUS) / ( 1 + rUS)
Forward premium on dollar (discount on sterling)= interest differential in favour of UK
eg. If rUK- rUS= minus1%pa then F will be below S, thatis you get less per $ in the forward market, than in the
spot market. - does this make sense for CIP ?
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Bank Calculates Forward Quote
CIP implies, banks quote for F (/$) is calculated as
F(quote) = S [( 1 + rUK) / ( 1 + rUS) ]
If rUK and rUS are relatively constant then
F and S will move together (positive correln)
hence:
For Hedging with Futures
If you are long spot $-assets and fear a fall in the $then go short (ie.sell) futures on USD
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Creating a Synthetic ForwardContract
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Creating a Synthetic FX-Forward Contract
Suppose the actual quoted forward rate is: F = 1.5 ($/)Consider the cash flows in an actual forward contract
Then reproduce these cash flows using other assets, that
is the money markets in each country and the spotexchange rate. This is the synthetic forward contract
Since the two sets of cash flows are identical then the
actual forward contract must have a value or priceequal to the synthetic forward contract. Otherwiseriskless arbitrage (buy low, sell high) is possible.
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Using two money markets and the spot FX rateSuppose: ruk= 11%, rus=10%, S = 1.513636 ($/)
Create cash flows equivalent to actual Forward ContractBegin by creating the cash outflow of 100 at t=1
Borrow 90.09 at r(UK) = 11%
Switch 90.09 in spot market and lend $136.36
in the US at r(US) =10%.
Note : S = 1.513636$/ and no own funds are used
Receive $150
100
10
Synthetic Forward Contract: Cash Flows
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Synthetic FX-Forward Contract
Borrowed 100/(1+ruk) =90.09 at t=0
( Pay out 100at t=1)
Convert to USD [100/(1+ruk) ] S = $136.36 at t=0
Lend in USA and receive [100/(1+ruk) ] S (1+rus)
= $150 at t=1
Synthetic Forward Rate SF:
Rate of exchange ( t=1) = (Receipt of USD) / (Pay out s)
= $150 / 100
SF = [100/(1+ruk) ] S (1+rus) / 100
= S (1+rus) / /(1+ruk)
The actual forward rate must equal the synthetic forward rate
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Bank Calculates Outright Forward Quote
F(quote) = S [ ( 1 + rus) / ( 1 + ruk) ]
Covered interest parity (CIP)
Also Note:
If rus and ruk are relatively constant then
F and S will move together (positive correln)
HedgingLong spot $s then go short (ie.sell) futures on $
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Bank Quotes Forward Points
Forward Points = F - S
= S [ rus- rUK) / ( 1 + ruk) ]
The forward points are calculated from S, and the twomoney market interest rates
Eg. If forward points = 10 and S=1.5 then
Outright forward rate F = S +Forward PointsF = 1.5000 + 10 points = 1.5010
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Risk Free Arbitrage Profits ( F and SF are different)
Actual Forward Contractwith F = 1.4 ($/)Pay out $140 and receive 100 at t=1
Synthetic Forward(Money Market)
Data: ruk= 11%, rus=10%, S = 1.513636 ($/) so SF=1.5 ($/)
Receive $150 and pay out 100
Strategy:
Sell $140 forward, receive 100 at t=1 (actual forward contract)
Borrow 90.09 in UK money market at t=0 (owe 100 at t=1)Convert 90.09 into $136.36 in spot market at t=0
Lend $136 in US money market receive $150 at t=1(synthetic)
Riskless Profit = $150 - $140 = $10
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Speculation in Forward Market
Bank will try and match hedgers in F-mkt to
balance its currency bookOpen Position
Suppose bank has forward contract. at F0= 1.50 $ / ,to
pay out 100,000 and receive $150,000
One year later : ST= 1.52 $ /
Buy 100,000 spot and pay $152,000
But only receive $150,000 from the f.c.
Loss (or profit) = ST- F0
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Foreign Currency Futures
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Futures: Contract Specification
Table 4.1 : Contract Specifications IMM Currency Futures(CME)
Size Tick Size [Value] Initial Margin
Margin Maintenance Margin
1 Pound Sterling 62,500 0.02 per [$12.50] $2,000
2 Swiss Franc SF125,000 0.01 per SFr $2,000
3 Japanese Yen Y12,500,000 0.01 per 100JY[$12.5] $1,500
4 Canadian Dollar CD100,000 0.001 ($/CD)[$100] $900
5 Euro 125,000 0.01 per Euro [$12.50] varies
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Futures: Hedging
S0= spot rate = 0.6700($/SFr)F0= futures price (Oct. delivery) = 0.6738($/SFr)Contract Size, z = SFr 125,000Tick size, (value) = 0.0001($/SFr) ($12.50)
US ImporterTVS0= SFr 500,000
Vulnerable to an appreciation of SFr and hencetakes a long position in SFr futuresNf= 500,000/125,000 = 4 contracts
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Futures: Hedging
Net $-cost = Cost in spot market - Gain on futures= TVS0S1- Nfz (F1F0)
= TVS0(S1- F1+ F0) = TVS0(b1+ F0)= $ 360,000 - $ 23,300 = $ 336,700
Notes:
Nfz = TVS0Hedge locks in the futures price at t=0 that is F0, as longas the final basis b1= S1- F1is small.Importer pays out $336,700 to receive SFr 500,000 whichimplies an effective rate of exchange at t=1 of :
[4.14] Net Cost/TVS0= b1+ F0= 0.6734 ($/SFr)
~close to the initial futures price of F0= 0.6738($/SFr) the
difference being the final basis b1= -4 ticks.
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Slides End Here