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China in Africa and prospects for accountable development
Giles Mohan, The Open University
DSA Annual Conference Session on Effective States and Inclusive Development
London, 3rd November 2012
Research questions
What are the emerging and potential impacts of China in Africa on the interconnected processes of:
(a) more effective and accountable forms of governance for development, and
(b) elite commitment to development?
Full paper available:
http://www.effective-states.org/publications/workingpapers/workingpaper12.htm
Existing takes on China-Africa politics
• Destructive of ‘good governance’
• Focus on African states/regime-types
• China’s flexibility and pragmatism
Building blocks: Channels and regimes
• Pariah states• Iliberal regimes
and weak democracies
• Democratic countries with diversified economies
Kaplinsky’s Asian Drivers framework
Channel Impacts
Complementary Competitive
Direct Indirect Direct Indirect
Trade
Investment
Aid
Governance
Migrants
Environment
Alden’s schema of the African
state
Channel Impacts by state type
Pariah states(e.g. Sudan)
Illiberal regimes and weak democracies(e.g. Angola)
Democratic countries with diversified economies(e.g. Ghana)
Direct Indirect Direct Indirect Direct Indirect
Trade Cheaper manufactures; Oil revenue
Unknown Cheaper manufactures; Oil revenue
Unknown Cheaper manufactures; Mineral revenue; Textile and construction firms feeling competition
Dutch Disease effects from recent oil discovery
Investment Infrastructure investment;
Possibly crowding in other Asian FDI
Infrastructure investment;Limited local employment
Unknown Infrastructure investment (e.g. Bui, Kpone);Significant local employment
International donors using Chinese firms
Aid Social and economic infrastructure;Some vanity projects
‘Buys’ support for China in multilateral forums
Social and economic infrastructure;Some vanity projects
‘Buys’ support for China in multilateral forums
Social and economic infrastructure;Some vanity projects
‘Buys’ support for China in multilateral forums DAC donors concerned about lack of Chinese engagement
Governance Elite brokerageInvolvement in internal conflicts
International backlash over Darfur
Elite brokerageExacerbates lack of transparency
China supportive of EITI
Elite brokerageLimited impactCivil society accommodating rather than confrontational
INGOs and BWIs concerned about resource curse
Migrants Employment creationSome politicisation and targeting of migrants
Limited impact Employment creationSome politicisation of migrant presence
Limited impact Employment creation;No major social tensions
Limited impact
Disaggregating flows
State-backed and large private companies – managerial and professional staff in urban HQs who have to mix, especially as move to pursue private sector contracts. Some stay and establish their own companies.
Independent entrepreneurs – often well educated from highly developed areas of China. Much focus on traders but often they are actually agents of companies in China. Presence and potential in manufacturing needs to be recognised.
Angola: Hybrid and relational state spaces
China Investment Fund
Gabinete de Reconstrução
Nacional
88 Queensway, Hong Kong
‘State’ agency
• Hybrid and shadowy assemblages of state and non-state actors
• States as emergent and disaggregated processes
• Transnational networks interpolate with territorial states “local, national and transnational actors
forge and remake the state through processes of negotiation, contestation and bricolage” (Hagmann & Peclard 2010: 544)
Synthesis and conclusionElites and inclusion• Cements but does not transform patrimonialism in negative ways• Effective development for some• Weak regulatory environment can exacerbate negative impacts
Legitimacy and policy space• Enhances regime legitimacy• Infrastructures of governance potentially positive • Opens up limited policy space