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The Art of the

Squeeze PlayPresented by:

Philip B. Erlanger, CMTPhil Erlanger Research Co., Inc

April 23, 2009

2009 Phil Erlanger Research Co., Inc.

How to Find Us on Bloomberg:

ERLN

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Contrary Opinion

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Factor Interpretations

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Patterns To Recognize in a 38 Factor Model:

5^38

364,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.

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Erlanger Model: 2 Factors

Price Action Sentiment

Observing2 Factors

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Sentiment

Who Is The Majority At Risk?

2009 Phil Erlanger

Research Co., Inc.

Question:

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Price Action

How Is The Market Treating The Majority?

2009 Phil Erlanger

Research Co., Inc.

Question:

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SQUEEZE PLAY

Majority is Short but.

Price is Advancing

2009 Phil Erlanger

Research Co., Inc.

Short Squeeze:

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SQUEEZE PLAY

Majority is Long but.

Price is Declining

2009 Phil Erlanger

Research Co., Inc.

Long Squeeze:

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Price Action

TREND INDICATORS

SEASONALITY

2009 Phil Erlanger

Research Co., Inc.

Focus on:

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Trend Indicators

ERLANGER TREND DIRECTION

RELATIVE STRENGTH

2009 Phil Erlanger

Research Co., Inc.

Focus on:

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Trend Direction S&P 500

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Relative Strength Amgen

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Seasonality

Only indicator you can see ahead of time!

Data on stocks, ETFs, groups, sectors andindices (even the VIX.)

Can be tested for validity and consistency

Doesnt cause moves, reflects tendencies

2009 Phil Erlanger

Research Co., Inc.

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Seasonality

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Seasonality

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Seasonality

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Seasonality

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Seasonality 2009 Phil ErlangerResearch Co., Inc.

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Identify Major Turning Points

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Identify Positive and Negative Seasonal Zones

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Positive Seasonal Zones in Blue

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Negative Seasonal Zones in Orange

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Positive Seasonal Heat

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Negative Seasonal Heat

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Sentiment

Short Interest Data:Data on most stocks

Released Bi-Monthly with delay of 10-daysReflects Intermediate time frame

Equity Options Activity:Stock Specific

Universe = Optionable StocksReflects Short-Term time frame

Reflects Raw (speculative) sentiment 2009 Phil ErlangerResearch Co., Inc.

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Sentiment - Short Interest Data

Short Ratio = Current Shorts / AverageDaily Volume

Erlanger Short Ratio = Current Shorts /

12-month Avg. of

Average DailyVolume

2009 Phil Erlanger

Research Co., Inc.

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Short Interest Data S&P 500

2002 Phil Erlanger

Research Co., Inc.

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2002 Phil Erlanger

Research Co., Inc.

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S S

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Sh I D S P

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Sh I D S&P 500

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Sh I D MU 2009 Phil Erlanger

R h C I

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Short Interest Data MUResearch Co., Inc.

Amgen

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Amgen

WorldCom

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WorldCom

E l T Cl ifi ti

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Erlanger Type Classifications 2009 Phil Erlanger

Research Co., Inc.

E l T Cl ifi ti

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Erlanger Type Classifications

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Research Co., Inc.

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Erlanger Squeeze Screens

Groups and Sectors

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Groups and Sectors

2009 Phil Erlanger

Research Co., Inc.

Groups and Sectors

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Groups and Sectors

2009 Phil Erlanger

Research Co., Inc.

Groups and Sectors

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Groups and Sectors

2009 Phil Erlanger

Research Co., Inc.

Groups and Sectors

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Groups and Sectors

2009 Phil Erlanger

Research Co., Inc.

Groups and Sectors

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Groups and Sectors

Groups and Sectors

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Groups and Sectors

O i

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Options

O i

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Options

Weekly Seasonal Short Interest

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Technical Reports - SSIT

Erlanger Seasonally Strong Ideas Report :

Positive 10, 20 and 40 days forward, seasonally Positive Seasonal Cycle R

Positive Seasonal Average Heat Elevated Short Selling underway Trend Direction not in downtrend

DMA Channel Status (Monthly, Weekly & Daily) Option Rank, Power Rank, RSI Sector Breakout


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Technical Reports - SSIT

Erlanger Seasonally Weak Ideas Report :

Negative 10, 20 and 40 days forward, seasonally Positive Seasonal Cycle R

Negative Seasonal Average Heat Diminished Short Selling underway Trend Direction not in uptrend

DMA Channel Status (Monthly, Weekly & Daily) Option Rank, Power Rank, RSI Sector Breakout

M k t C t

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Market Commentary

Were In A Tight Spot

M k t C t

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Market Commentary

Mega Declines: The Good

M k t C t

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Market Commentary

Mega Declines: The Good

-41.16%

M k t C t

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Market Commentary

Mega Declines:The Bad

-46.59%

M k t C t

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Market Commentary

Mega Declines: The Ugly

-84.49%

-49.39%

M k t C t

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Market Commentary

2009 Phil Erlanger

Research Co., Inc.

M k t C t

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Market Commentary

-54.90%

60.87%

121.74%

M k t C t

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Market Commentary

Market Commentar

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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

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Market Commentary

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www.ErlangerResearch.com

www.GoodMorningWallSt.comPhil Erlanger Research Co., Inc.

P.O. Box 2680

Acton, MA [email protected].: 978-263-2536Fax: 978-266-1104

How to Find Us on Bloomberg:

ERLN
http://www.erlangerresearch.com/http://www.goodmorningwallst.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.goodmorningwallst.com/http://www.erlangerresearch.com/

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