Chicago Crime Statistics: A Comparative Analysis of High School

Dropout Rates and Crime Statistics in Two Chicago Neighborhoods

Sotayo Sowemimo Program Evaluation PADM 9050

FALL 2016

Dr. Leigh Swicord November 27, 2016

Valdosta State University

Peer Reviewer: Glen Haas

Introduction

Research over the years has shown a strong correlation between unemployment rate, crime

rate and educational attainment. It is a well-established fact that unemployment rate is inversely

proportional to the educational attainment levels of workers (Ashenfelter & Ham, 1979). While

some studies have focused on how higher education can cut the rate of poverty, few studies have

compared different areas within the same city to analyze high school dropout’s rate with

corresponding crime rates.

The inner city of Chicago is infamously popular for incessant shootings and spike in crime

rate, it should be noted here that there are certain misconceptions that projects the whole city as

unsafe and dangerous, the truth of the matter is that these crime infested areas are small subset of

the city and are mostly concentrated in certain parts.

This study will research the high school dropout rates in two neighborhoods in two

different schools districts within the city of Chicago, Illinois. The main reason I am focusing on

high school dropout rates is because the majority of victims of these senseless crime and

violence are typically between the ages of 17 and 25, according to Chicago Sun Times, in the

first nine months of 2014, about 42 percent of homicides were reported in the 17 to 25 age group.

The National Centers for Education Statistics defined status dropout rate as “the percentage of

16-to-24 year olds who are not enrolled in school and have not earned a high school credential

(either a diploma or an equivalency credential such as GED Certificate)”( National Center for

Education Statistics 2016). Since the majority of the age of victims is within those classified as

status dropout rate, it is imperative for research to be conducted to establish a link, and to what

extent dropout rates contribute to crime rates in specific neighborhoods.

The city of Chicago particularly this year is witnessing spike in shootings and violent

crime, such that, the notoriety elevated the problem to the national level being addressed by two

leading presidential candidates. There is a need to investigate the role high school graduation

might be playing at different neighborhoods; to affirm education attainment at the high school

level is a reliable predictive factor to distinguish areas within the city that are unsafe and

dangerous from those that are not. This research study will hopefully be able to conclusively link

high crime rates to neighborhoods with intolerable high school dropout rates across the city;

ultimately showing neighborhoods plagued by less than stellar educational attainment are few,

contradicting the narrative, and the caricature being portrayed by the media (Chicagomag 2014).

As a doctoral student, an employee within the Illinois Juvenile Justice Department, and as a

person currently working in the City of Chicago, I will be investigating how high school dropout

rates in two distinct areas within the city (Englewood and Hyde Park) affect the level of crime in

these neighborhoods. The following areas in Chicago are typically associated with the highest

crime statistics: Riverdale, Auburn Gresham, Fuller Park, Englewood, Chatham and West

Englewood. Neighborhoods viewed as relatively safe are West Town, Lincoln Park, Near North

Side, Hyde Park and North Center.

There are seven high schools within the Englewood neighborhood, but only two are

referred to as Attendance Area Schools. Students in these schools are exclusively from

households living in that area; while others either have “citywide option” or are attend charter

schools. Hyde Park is served by three high schools with only one labeled as Attendance Area,

and the other two categorized as charter schools. Data on dropout rates from one in each

neighborhood schools will be gathered and analyzed, and In order to conduct this research study,

there is a need for systematic inquiry where correlation can be drawn.

Literature Review

Determining the factors that contribute to violent crimes in neighborhoods is a subject

that can be found many in scholarly articles, while my research is focused on the role of

educational attainment viz- a viz the rate of high school dropout in two Chicago neighborhoods

in shaping crime statistics, Sampson, Raudenbush and Earls (1997) serve as a foundational

guide in literature to provide a bigger picture of underlying factors in many neighborhoods

across the country. The authors suggested the role of low socioeconomic status (SES) play in

violence and residential instability in neighborhoods, and further investigated why there is a

geographical concentration of crime and violence in certain areas.

The authors opined that variations in crime rates in crime infested neighborhoods can be

explained through social and organizational characteristics, but not entirely attributable to the

aggregated demographic characteristics of individual. As I investigate the role of high school

dropout in Chicago neighborhoods, this article affirmed while their might be other peripheral

factors to explain crime in some of these neighborhoods; ‘the differential ability of

neighborhoods to realize the common values of residents and maintain effective social controls is

major source of neighborhood variations in violence’ (Sampson and Groves, 1989).

The role of youths living in these neighborhood are critical, and the article shed more

light on controls of residents particularly, youths in these communities, and has I have state

earlier, about with 42 percent of homicides were reported in the 17 to 25 age group in the first

nine months of 2014 in Chicago, the article highlighted lack of social control as another factor

for high crime rate; social control refers to capacity of a group to regulate its members according

to desired principles- to realize collective, as opposed to forced, goals (Janowitz, 1975).

The data from this study provided some context on how low socioeconomic status

(SEC) of residents of Chicago contribute to spike in crime rates in those neighborhoods, and to

also to what extent educational attainment especially at high school level might be contributing

to spike in crime rates at different communities in the city.

Another interesting angle provided by the article is what it termed “collective efficacy”,

defined as social cohesion among neighbors combined with their willingness to intervene on

behalf of the common good. Collective efficacy, they opined is embedded in structural contexts

and a wider political economy that stratifies placed of residences by key social characteristics

(Logan and Molotch, 1987). It should be noted that the fundamental argument behind the

collective efficacy for these neighborhood advanced by the article is that, the upsurge of

residential mobility in areas of decreasing population is a catalyst for institutional disruption and

weakened social controls over collective life. Based on this background, we can therefore infer

some of the underlying challenges that contribute to high school dropout rate in crime infested

communities in predominantly urban areas like Chicago.

The article affirmed collective efficacy is a critical aspect that can be measured, and

divided these neighborhoods into three distinct stratifications: concentrated disadvantage,

immigration concentration, and residential stability. Collective efficacy the authors concluded,

mediates a substantial portion of the association of residential stability and disadvantage with

multiple measures of violence, which they argued is consistent with a major theme in

neighborhood theories of social organization.

There are growing economic literatures with empirical evidence linking education and

crime, Lochner and Moretti (2004) adopted variations in compulsory school leaving age laws

across the states to identify the impact of education and crime. The second article by Machin et

al. (2012) showed evidence of casual impact of education on crime; it explored a large expansion

of the UK post-compulsory education system between period of late 1980s and 1990s.

The authors reported that education expansion raised education levels across the whole

education levels; including bottom end, giving them the opportunity to develop an instrumental

variable strategy to study the crime-education relationship. It is imperative to note, that at the

same time as education expansion, youth crime fell, revealing a significant cross-cohort

relationship between crime and education.

The article highlighted theoretical framework why crime can have impact on crime, and

focused on three major channels among others, where schooling might affect criminal

participation: Income effects, patience or risk aversion and time availability, I will expatiate

further on the each.

Income Effects: This offers legitimate route for legal economic returns, while raising

opportunity costs for illegal conducts (Hjalmarsson, 2008; Lochner 2004; Lochner and Moretti,

2004). There are other empirical evidences linking crime to low wages (Gould et al., 2002;

Grogger, 1998; Machin and Meghir, 2004; Mocan and Unel, 2011).

Patient and Risk Aversion: This is based on the assumption that individuals that exhibit the

virtue of patience are likely to value future earnings and therefore have low discount rates;

conversely those who are restless and impatient tend to have high discount rates. The authors

cited Oreopoulos (2007) who provided empirical evidence that young people who drop out of

school are likely to be myopic and distracted by the immediate costs of schooling, rather than on

future gains from additional years of schooling.

Time Availability: This can be referred to as duration of time spent studying in school, Tauchen

(1994) described ‘self-incapacitation’ effect; found time spent in school within a year, negatively

correlated with probability of arrest, Hjalmarsson (2008) looked at the effect of being arrested

and incarcerated before finishing high school, and concluded, it increases the probability of those

individuals becoming high school dropout.

The article used the self-incapacitation effect; time spent in school as the main

mechanism to underpin the crime-education relation, while acknowledging it might not be sole

explanation of any crime reductions that result from education expansion. The authors studying

the effect of education expansion of the post –compulsory education participation from 1960 to

2002 on education attainment and crime, discovered no single-individual-level data source exists

to arrive at a conclusion were forced to match cohort level; convictions data in England and

Wales from Offenders Index Database (OID) with education data from the Labor Force Survey

(LFS). Another challenge encountered was that, no defendant’s education-level were found in

the Offenders Index Database, hence, the need to aggregate and match data to education statistics

from other sources.

The article as earlier stated, investigated the expansion of post-compulsory education

system that occurred in the United Kingdom for cohorts of individuals born between 1972 and

1975; who reached high school graduation in 1988. They discovered significant expansion for

numbers of students that participated in post-compulsory education program; and more

importantly, for young men; they found strong crime reducing effect of education, and for young

women; also crime reducing effect, albeit, at a smaller rate.

To provide further insights to how high school dropout rate might affect crime statistics

in a given neighborhood, Bayer et al. (2007) provided an analysis of the relationship between

juvenile justice system interactions and high school graduation, after all, review of literature

“provides a framework for establishing the importance of the study as well as a benchmark for

comparing the results with other findings” (Creswell 2014, p. 28).The author opined under

certain characteristics; arrested and incarcerated individuals are about 11 and 26 percentage

points respectively, less likely to graduate high school than non-arrested individuals.

The author gathered data through random selection of youths between the ages of 12 and

16 through National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, over sampling Blacks and Hispanics, to

underscore the role incarceration (an indirect variable for crime) play before and individual

graduates from high school. The paper found strong negative correlation between high school

graduation and arrest and incarceration. The result consistently shows a relationship within a

large set of observable characteristics as well as household and state level unobservable. It is

imperative to state that the article suggested an unlikelihood that arrest is casually related to high

school graduation, but argued; at least a part of the relationship between incarceration and

graduation is likely to capture a real effect on analysis of how sensitive the estimates are to the

correlation between the unobserved factors that determine high school graduation.

There is empirical evidence that substantial numbers of offender in American prisons has

not completed high or acquired GED equivalent, in 1997, more than four in ten inmates across

the US did not complete high school diploma compared to just 18 percent of the general

population aged 18 or older (Harlow, 2003). Exploring further the effect of education on crime,

Hjalmarsson, Holmlund and Lindquist (2015), studied the casual effect of educational attainment

on conviction and incarceration using Sweden compulsory schooling reform as an instrument for

years of schooling and a 70 percent sample from Sweden Multigenerational Registry matched

with more than 30 years of administrative crime records. They found just one additional year of

schooling decreases the probability of conviction (indirect link to rise in crime rate) by 6.7

percent and incarceration by whopping 15.5 percent. Their finding was based on the assumption

just like Machin et al. (2012) that the only channel of reforms goes through increase duration in

school, there result however affirmed additional time spent schooling has casual effect on

individual’s propensity to commit the first illegal offence, thereby increasing the odds to commit

more heinous crimes, that will be severe enough to lead them to imprisonment, effectively

preventing them from graduating from high school with a diploma.

A major difference for their conclusion is that they did not find any effect of additional

schooling induced by the school reform on convictions and incarceration for women, a major

departure from the Machin et al. (2012) paper which found strong crime reducing effect of

education, and for young women; although, at a smaller rate.

This research paper relies on secondary data primarily from data reported by City of

Chicago Police Department to the Federal Bureau of Investigations; Uniform Crime Reporting

(UCR) program, Chicago Public School, and the National Centers of Education Statistics

(NCES). Adoption of research methods that include “techniques and procedures that produces

research evidence, such as sampling strategies, measurement instruments, planned comparisons,

and statistical techniques” (Remler and Ryzin 2015, p.4) will provide for that systematic inquiry.

In view of this, my next literature review will focus on crime reporting by government agencies.

Seidman and Couzen (1972) opined in their article; “political pressure and crime

reporting”, that political undertone and pressure are not immune from crime reporting, even

though this article is a revision of a paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American

Political Science Association, Washington, D.C. in 1972. It’s instructive to know despite

improvement since the publication of this article, some of the secondary data gathered from

government agencies and their website may not be infallible after all; underscoring the validity

or otherwise of the data collected from these sources. A good example is the lack or insufficient

data of police use of deadly force on citizens, while some police departments report these data to

the Federal Bureau of Intelligence (FBI), majorities of others don’t bother to report such

incidences, any data therefore collected from the FBI website on police use of deadly force on

civilians, especially those proven to be fatal provide inconclusive, haphazard and largely

incoherent picture of the true state of affairs.

The authors asserted that police reports about crime in their localities are now always

error free and that statistics derived from those data does not capture the totality of the crime in

their localities and are notably, non-reactive. The article opined the systematic knowledge of

crime depends upon organized means of knowing, and concurred the use of archival measures as

social indicators must face up not only to their high degree of chaotic error and systematic bias,

but also to the politically motivated changes in recorded keeping that will follow upon their

public use as social indicators (Campbell, 1969, p. 415). Despite strong reservations from the

article, my sources of data will come primarily from City of Chicago Police Department and

Chicago Public School, and will supplemented from other sources like the Federal Bureau of

Investigations, and the National Centers of Education Statistics (NCES), these sources are

assumed to be valid, except proven otherwise, after all ‘secondary data refers to data that already

exist because they were collected as part of a prior administrative or research activity’ (Remler

and Ryzin 2015, p. 181).

Finally, Schwartz (2003) gave a proper description of how Juvenile Justice Systems is to

effectively address the issue of any reform; it should be noted that when a student dropout of

high school, and unfortunately is involved in crime, they enter the Juvenile Justice system. The

author suggested any meaningful efforts towards reforms may remain elusive without active

participation of the judiciary especially at the local level; another perspective for this study.

Methodology

The research design and methodology adopted for this research paper embraces a

comparative dimensional statistical analysis of data retrieved primarily from Federal Bureau of

Intelligence, Chicago Police Department, Chicago Public Schools, and National Centers for

Education Statistics websites. Specifically, data on crime and high school dropout rates for

Englewood and Hyde Park areas of Chicago for years 2010-2014 will be analyzed.

Design is like a blueprint, road map, guide or a recipe for any research project (Hart 2007),

and ‘deals with a logical problem and not logistical problem’ (Yin, 1989, p.29); the purpose of

research design should be clear without any ambiguity. The stated framework above will

undoubtedly be linked to the theoretical perspective of this paper; Crotty (1998) defined it as

“the philosophical stance informing the methodology and thus providing a context for the

process and grounding its logic and criteria”.

Pearson Product Moment Correlation Coefficient (r) will be used to determine correlation

between the Englewood High School dropout rate and Englewood crime rate, and separately do

the same for Hyde Park High School dropout rate and Hyde Park crime statistics. In each case,

the variable X will represent dropout rate, while Y will represent crime rate.

Dropout rates from one high school each from Hyde Park and Englewood neighborhoods

will be analyzed to provide a snapshot of high graduation picture for 2010-2014.

The schools chosen for this study are:

Englewood Neighborhood:

Robeson High School,

(Also known as Paul Robeson High School),

6835 S. Normal Boulevard,

Chicago, IL 60621.

Hyde Park Neighborhood:

Kenwood High School,

(Also known as Kenwood Academy High School),

5015 S Blackstone Avenue,

Chicago, IL 60615.

This research will measure linear dependence between high school dropout rates in

Englewood (Ed) and crime rate (Ec), and separately measure the linear dependence for high

school dropout rate in Hyde Park (Hd) and crime rate (Hc).

Ed= Englewood high school dropout rate, Ec=Englewood crime rate

Hd=Hyde Park high school dropout rate, Hc= Hyde Park crime statistics

This research is designed with the following theoretical rationale:

The higher the Ed= the higher Ec

The higher the Hd= the higher Hc.

Hypothesis

There will be a direct correlation between high school dropout in Chicago neighborhood

with high crime rates and low high school dropout in Chicago neighborhood with relatively

lower crime rates. Hypothesis testing is the process of determining whether a hypothesis is

supported by the results of research study (Jackson 2006, p. 144).

µ0= rise in Chicago crime rate, µ1= rise in dropout rate,

H0: µ0: =µ1

Null hypothesis: H0: µ0= rise in Chicago crime rate=µ1= rise in dropout rate.

The purpose of my research paper therefore is to determine H0 is probably true or

probably false.

The alternative hypothesis (Ha) is a presented as a non-directional hypothesis; in which the

researcher predicts that the groups been compared are different (have relationship) but does not

predict the direction of the difference (Jackson 2006, p. 146).

Ha: µ0: ≠µ1

For this study, I do not expect an alternative hypothesis, and like I have stated earlier,

there should be a direct correlation in neighborhood with high crime rate with high dropout rate,

and also, a direct correlation with lower high school dropout rate with relatively lower crime rate

in that area of Chicago. The following section will analyze data collected both crime and high

school dropout rates for Englewood and Hyde Park neighborhoods in Chicago, and should

provide empirical evidence that there is indeed direct correlation between education attainment;

at high school level and spike in crime rates in these two distinct areas within the city of

Chicago.

Findings and Outcomes.

Table 1 below show the dropout rates for Robeson High School located at Englewood:

Year Dropout Rate % (Xe)

2006 58.8

2007 52.9

2008 54.1

2009 54.3

2010 59.3

Table 1: Courtesy of Chicago Public School website

Mean= ∑Xe/N= 2974/5= 54.3%

The implication of the mean for Englewood is that for the period of 2006-2010, from the

data from Robeson High School, the average dropout rate is 54.3%.

Table 2 below show the dropout rates for Kenwood High School located at Hyde Park:

Year Dropout Rate % (Xh)

2006 29.0

2007 26.5

2008 32.1

2009 29.1

2010 33.3

Table 2: Courtesy of Chicago Public School website

Mean= ∑Xh/N= 150/5= 30.

The implication of the mean for Hyde Park is that for the period of 2006-2010, from the

data from Kenwood High School, the average dropout rate is 30%; for this neighborhood 3

out of 10 students that enroll eventually dropped out.

The source of the crime data is Chicago Police Department’s annual report for every

community under her jurisdiction, crime is reported under the following sections: Murder,

Criminal Sexual Assault, Robbery, Aggravated Assault, Aggravated Battery, Burglary, Theft,

Motor Vehicle Theft and Arson. The table 3 below shows the total crime data reported for

the whole city of Chicago, and to be able to compare with the high school dropout rates,

there is a need to get a percentage of offenders that falls between 11-20 years; since Chicago

Police Department do not separately report this data for each neighborhood:

Table 3 below show the total crime data for Englewood neighborhood:

Year Offenders Ages 11-20

Total Offender Crime rate for ages 11-20 in % (Ye & Yh)

2006 88 278 31.7

2007 61 216 28.2

2008 87 293 29.6

2009 76 221 34.4

2010 60 178 33.7

Table 3: Courtesy of Chicago Police Department website

Similarly, since crime statistics are not reported separately for different neighborhoods by

Chicago Police Department, Table 4 below show the same crime data for Hyde Park:

Year Offenders Ages 11-20

Total Offender Crime rate for ages 11-20 in % (Ye & Yh)

2006 88 278 31.7

2007 61 216 28.2

2008 87 293 29.6

2009 76 221 34.4

2010 60 178 33.7

Table 4: Courtesy of Chicago Police Department website

Calculating Pearson Product Moment Correlation Coefficient (r) for dropout and crime

rates for Englewood neighborhood from table 5 below:

Year Xe Ye

2006 58.8 31.7

2007 52.9 28.2

2008 54.1 29.6

2009 54.3 34.4

2010 59.3 33.7

Table 5

r = +0.5386.

Not surprising, a positive correlation is found for Englewood; with more than half of high

school students in that neighborhood dropping out of high school, the result link dropout rate to

high crime in an area with one of the highest crime statistics in city of Chicago.

Calculating Pearson Product Moment Correlation Coefficient (r) for dropout and crime

rates for Hyde Park neighborhood from table 6 below:

Year Xh Yh

2006 29.0 31.7

2007 26.5 28.2

2008 32.1 29.6

2009 29.1 34.4

2010 33.3 33.7

Table 6

r = +0.4205

Another positive correlation is also arrived, establishing a relationship between the two

variables; high school dropout rate and crime rate, albeit, a relatively weaker relationship,

considering the proximity to value zero. The result is consistent with the dropout rate at Hyde

Park, which is three out of ten students, and relatively smaller than the rate at Englewood area.

The above findings thus confirm the hypothesis is true: there is a direct correlation

between high school dropout in Chicago neighborhood with high crime rates and low high

school dropout in Chicago neighborhood with relatively lower crime rates.

µ0= rise in Chicago crime rate, µ1= rise in dropout rate, H0: µ0: =µ1.

The above confirms the theoretical rationale for this research is true:

“The higher the Ed= the higher Ec” and “the higher the Hd= the higher Hc.”

Conclusion and Recommendation

The findings from this research study is expected, because there has been so many others

linking education attainment to crime, having said that, I didn’t find many research papers

linking high school dropout out rate with crime rate in specific neighborhoods in America’s

biggest cities.

The most instructive thing I found in my research work is that, even though, Hyde Park is

an area considered relatively safe, a neighborhood where President Obama currently owns a

house, with three out of ten students dropping out of high school, a positive correlation to crime,

albeit, a weak one was arrived at.

The main limitation for this study is that I could not get specific crime data for each

neighborhood; Chicago Police only report them by districts and for even those, they don’t break

them down in age groups which was critical to my data analysis. I was therefore forced to rely on

data reported for the whole City of Chicago, and specifically for the age group 11-20, which

potentially have student that might have dropped out of high school. It is imperative to note that,

even though I was able to establish a positive correlation, I could not confirm to what extent

dropout rate contribute to crime in these two neighborhoods; largely due to the reason stated

earlier, and because available data of offenders in the age group 11-20, do not provide those who

actually drop out of high school.

In conclusion, so much as being put into juvenile justice reform agendas, while such

efforts should continue and are commendable, I will argue, concerted initiatives by federal, state

and local authorities to fix K-12 school systems across the country, especially in urban areas and

big cities should be of higher priority. Keeping an individual from ever dropping out of school

and thereby susceptible to crime in the first place, should be a smarter strategy in reducing crime.

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