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8/13/2019 Characterization of Dairy Value Chain Pakistan
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Dairy Pakistan Livestock economy
Demand for dairy products Consumption of dairy products
Market demand
Consumption trends
Consumer preferences
Supply of dairy products Livestock inventory
Milk production & productivity
Milk production & productivity trends
Supply demand gaps for dairy products
Marketing of dairy products Milk and meat marketing
Hide, skin & wool marketing
Dairy supply/value and Constraints
Issues of dairy industry in Pakistan
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Background Livestock Economy
49.6% of agri. value added and 10.4% of GDP (>major + minor crops)
30-35 million rural population engaged in LST
farming
Livestock population
Cattle(29.6 mill.), Buffalo(27.3 mill.), Sheep(26.5
mill.), Goat (53.8 mill.), Others (4.84 mill.)
Livestock products
Milk(38Mt),Beef (1.24 Mt), Mutton (0.83 Mt),
Poultry meat (0.514Mt), Eggs (9.62 mln.),
Exportsabout 12% of total export earnings
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Demand for dairy products (ctc)Per capita consumption milk by provinces liters/month 2007
Item (Ltr) Punjab NWFP Sindh Balochistan Isd. All
Fresh milk cow 2.67 1.40 1.53 0.16 5.50 2.19
Fresh milk
buffalo 8.27 3.96 6.23 4.59 0.00 6.38
Fresh milk mix 0.59 1.77 0.05 0.10 0.00 0.57
Pasturized milk 0.05 0.18 0.08 0.00 0.47 0.10
UHT milk 0.90 1.10 1.15 1.18 3.21 1.15
Infant formula 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.01Powder milk 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.02 0.10 0.05
Flavor milk 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
Total milk 11.76 7.60 7.93 4.95 5.60 9.36
Source: FAO 2007
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Demand for dairy productsPer capita consumption of dairy products(liter/month) 2007
Per capita consumptionper month (liter) Low Middle High AllYogurt fresh 0.62 1.04 0.98 0.89
Yogurt UHT 0.05 0.09 0.28 0.12
Flavoured Yogurt 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
Cottage Cheese 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
Processed Cheese 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
Butter(Fresh) 0.03 0.07 0.07 0.06
Butter (Processed) 0.01 0.07 0.09 0.06
Khoyia Quantity 0.00 0.03 0.04 0.03
Sweet/Desert 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.02
Desi ghee 0.04 0.07 0.06 0.06
Cream Quantity 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.02Ice Cream Quantity 0.03 0.08 0.16 0.09
Rubbery consumption 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Malai Quantity 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lassi Quantity 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.01
Liquid Milk Equivalent
Per Month (LME)
11.58 16.42 19.66 15.66
Note:LME includes both all types of milk and milk products
Source: FAO 2007
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CategoriesPer capita/
annum (LME)Urban population
(m)Urban demand for
LME (b)
Province /FederalPunjab 205.26 33.61 6.90
Sindh 174.64 13.89 2.43
NWFP 156.17 8.10 1.26
Balochistan 155.97 2.99 0.50
Islamabad 224.87 0.37 0.08
PAKISTAN 187.89 60.41 11.35
Urban Demand for LMELiters 2007
OVERALL DEMAND FOR MILK IN PAKISTAN
Urban milk consumption =188 liters/capita/yr
Overall milk consumption = 211 liters/capita/yr
Population = 160 million
Demand for milk = 33.76 bl liters/yr
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PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION TRENDS (Kgs)
Countries Meat Milk
1983 1993 2007 2020 1983 1993 2007 2020
Developed 74 76 - 83 195 192 - 189
Developing 14 21 - 30 35 40 - 62
Pakistan 11
65
>
211 245
>
(FAO, 2003, ILRI 1999)
Messages: Meat consumption will be higher in 2020 than DC
Milk consumption is higher than DC but gap would
increase further
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PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION TRENDS (Kgs) .
Diversification of diets meats, eggs and dairy products
Population growth, urbanization and income growth
Derived Demand -- creating a veritable livestock revolution
New and expanding markets for small livestock producers
However, inappropriate policy and misallocation of
investment resources could skew the distributionof benefits
and opportunities
demand for livestock products will lead to intensification ofsmall holders food and feed production system and may
provide an engine for sustainable livestock production
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Consumer Preferences for Fresh Milk (% Responses)
Preferences Cow BuffaloTaste 11 31
Good Quality 18 19
Low Price 19 15
Family Choice 11 9
Easy Availability 14 7Freshness 7 8
More Nutritious(fat) 9 4
Good for Drink 3 2
Good for Tea 7 2Good for Dessert 0 2
Other (SP) 0 1Low Spoilage 2 0Sample HHs=2616 Pb=1224 Sd=407 NWFP=679 Bl=155 Isbd=151
Source: FAO 2007
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Preferences
Provinces
OverallPunjab NWFP Sindh Baloch.Islam-abad
Good Quality 22 17 23 12 27 22
Taste 20 13 28 30 20 21
Good for Tea 10 9 13 13 17 12
Easy Availability 11 15 4 21 9 10
More Nutritious (fat) 7 12 8 6 7 8
Family Choice 9 2 5 4 6 7
Low Price 5 13 3 1 2 5
Good for Drink 2 0 6 6 6 3
Low Spoilage 1 3 5 1 2 2
Good for Dessert 1 2 1 5 0 1
Freshness 0 1 0 1 1 1
Sales Promotion 0 1 0 0 0 0
Other (SP) 11 14 2 0 2 8
Consumer preferences for UHT Milk (% Responses)
Source: FAO 2007
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Responses for market types for fresh milk (%)
Market Types Punjab NWFP Sindh B.tan All
Home Delivery 68 67 69 56 68
Sales Point 21 14 6 6 15
Grocery/General Store 0 3 3 18 3
City Centre 0 1 0 1 0
Local Market 5 5 17 16 9
Own Animal 4 1 3 1 3
Others(Dairy Farm) 1 9 2 2 3
Source: FAO 2007
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Awareness responses about milk adulteration (%)
Adulterants
ProvincesOverall
Punjab NWFP Sindh Baloch. Islamabad
Awareness Yes%) 68 78 76 75 80 75
Dirty water 84 67 78 84 85 75
Ice 8 17 9 8 8 11
Surf 3 0 1 3 4 2
White cement 2 2 0 2 3 2
Oil 1 1 0 1 - 1
Corn Flour 1 9 7 1 - 8
Other 1 4 5 1 - 2
Source: FAO 2007
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Livestock Inventories, 2006 (million)
Country/
province
Cattle Buffaloes Sheep Goats Others Total
Pakistan 29.56 27.33 26.49 53.79 5.69 142.86
Punjab 14.48
(49)
17.76
(65)
6.36
(24)
19.90
(37)
2.65
(47)
61.16
(43)
Sindh 6.80
(23)
7.38
(27)
3.97
(15)
12.37
(23)
1.36
(24)
31.89
(22)
NWFP 5.91(20)
1.91(7)
3.44(13)
9.68(18)
0.76(13)
21.71(15)
Balochistan 2.36
(8)
0.27
(1)
12.72
(48)
11.83
(22)
0.91
(16)
28.10
(13)
Agriculture Censes, 2006
Figure in parenthesis are percentage
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Livestock Population growth trends
01000020000300004000050000
1955 1960 1972 1976 1986 1996 2006CENSUS YEAR
POPULATION(00
0)
CattleBuffaloesSheepGoats
Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan, 1955-2006
C>B in beginning of 1955; C>B reached peak in 1960; B>C in 1996
but in 2006 C>BSource: Hasnain & Khan 2007
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MILKING POPULATION, 2006
Animals Pakistan Punjab Sindh NWFP Baloch.
Cow > 3 years 15.16 7.376
(49)
3.656
(24)
3.038
(20)
1.086
(7)
In milk cows 8.72 4.05
(46)
2.143
(25)
1.87
(21)
0.6526
(7)
Buffaloes > 3
year
15.56 9.896
(64)
4.393
(28)
1.090
(7)
0.184
(1)
In milk 10.22 6.233
(61)
3.051
(30)
0.808
(8)
0.130
(1)
Agriculture Censes, 2006
Figure in parenthesis are percentage
(Million)
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Milk production by provinces 2006
Punjab
22.50
58 %
Bal
1.18
3.1%
NWFP
4.48
11.6%
Sind
10.19
26.3%
38.37
Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2006-07
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Milk production trends by species
Type ofanimal
Gross annual production (Billion Liters) % Change Between
1986 1996 2006 1986&1996 1996&2006
Cows 7.07 9.36 13.33 32.4 42.4
Buffaloes 14.82 18.90 25.04 27.5 32.5
Total 21.89 28.26 38.37 29.1 35.6
Goats - - 0.32 - -
Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2006-07
Ave. Annual Lactation length of 250, 305 and 50 days for cows, buffaloes and goats
MILK PRODUCTIVITY
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MILK PRODUCTIVITY
Years No. of dairy
farms
(million)
Average milk
animal/farm
T. milk/farm/yr) L. milk/
Animal/yr
1996 11.3 1.9 2.37 1247.4
1998 11.9 1.8 2.36
2000 12.7 1.8 2.35
2001 13.0 1.8 2.35
2002 13.4 1.8 2.35
2003 13.8 1.8 2.34
2004 14.2 1.8 2.342005 14.7 1.8 2.34 1300
G. Rate %
(2000-05)
3.0 -0.4 -0.1
IFCN, Dairy Report, 2007: Farm growth nearly stable
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ENERGY CORRECTED MILK PRODUCTVITY
Years Milk production
(mill.t)
Cows &
buffaloes
(in million)
Milk yield
(t/cow/yr)
1996 26.6 20.9 1.27
1998 28.1 22.0 1.28
2000 29.7 23.3 1.28
2001 30.6 23.8 1.28
2002 31.5 24.5 1.29
2003 32.4 25.1 1.29
2004 33.4 25.7 1.30
2005 34.4 26.4 1.30
G. Rate % (2000-05) 2.9 2.5 0.4
IFCN, Dairy Report, 2007: ECM = Energy Corrected Milk with 4% fat and 3.3% protein
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Milk production kgs/animal/lactation
Country Cattle BuffaloBangladesh 207 407
Bhutan 257 400
India 987 1450
Nepal 415 850
Pakistan 1195 1909
Siri Lanka 627 496
Australia 4926New Zeland 3947
Australia 4926
PDDC 2006
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Production trends of dairy products
Economic survey of Pakistan 2006-07
KEY FEATURES OF MILK PROCESSING SECTOR 2005
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KEY FEATURES OF MILK PROCESSING SECTOR, 2005Processors Capacity
(millionliters)
Capacity utilization AveragemonthlyFlush Lean
Nestle 1.3 1.3 0.78 1.04
HFL 0.9 0.9 0.54 0.72
Milac 0.3 0.3 0.18 0.24
Vita 0.05 0.03 0.018 0.024
Halla 0.15 0.15 0.09 0.12
Prime 0.1 0.1 0.06 0.08
Nurpur 0.15 0.15 0.09 0.12
Nirala 1 0.1 0.6 0.08
Dairy crest 0.15 0.15 0.09 0.12
Engro 0.35 0 0 0
K&K 0.4 0 0 0
Butt Dairies 0.06 0.06 0.036 0.048
Munno Daires 0.02 0.02 0.012 0.016
Khi Dairies 0.1 0 0 0
Military 0.18 0.18 0.108 0.144
Total 5.3 3.44 2.064 2.752PDDC 2006
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MILK PROCESSING AND PRODUCTS, 2006 Fresh & dry milk processing plants = 24
Large = 16 Medium = 2 Small = 1
Fresh milk processed (buffalo & cows) = 992 mln. liters Dry milk used = 12.5 mln.kgs Dairy products
UHT milk = 472.2 mill. liters Low fat milk = 10.90 mill. Liters High fat milk = 28.80 mill. Liters Pasteurized milk = 5.20 mill. Liters Flavored milk = 3.20 mill. Liters Powder milk = 37.40 mill. Kgs Condensed milk = 1.70 mill. Kgs Milk cream = 26.60 mill. Kgs Yogurt = 10.10 mill. Kgs
Butter = 4.70 mill. Kgs No. of persons employed = 5653 personnel
Ratio of fresh milk processed with net milk
production from buffalo and cows = 3.23%
Agricultural Censes Commissioner, 2007
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Demand and supply situation in Pakistan
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
Indexofproductionand
consumption
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Indexofproductionand
consumption
Demand Supply + water Supply
Excess supplyconverted to
ghee, khoya,butter, powder etc
Water
Reconstituted
+ powder
Excess demand met byreconstitued powderand diluted milk
Excess supplyconverted to ghee,Khoa, butter, powder etc
Source: Hasnain & Khan 2007
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Rural
Commercial
Assembler
Peri Urban
Producer
(15%)
Rural
Subsistence
Retail
Milk Shop
Rural Producer
(80%)
Urban Producer
(5%)
80%5%
15%
20%
Bakers
Confectioners
5%
Wholesaler
10% 90%
5%
90%
ProcessingPlants
5%
10%
Wholesale market
100%
Retail Store Consumer100% 100%
15%
85%100%
85%
MILK MARKETING CHANNLES
FAO, 2003
Improper milk collection system, Un-hygienic milk handling & Adulteration
DAIRY SUPPLY CHAIN
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DAIRY SUPPLY CHAIN
Urban Dairy Markets (Demand Perspective) Home delivery/gawalas- 68 percent urban consumer
reported that they are getting milk at home through milkmen/Gawalas
Milk shops/retail shops - 16% purchased milk from localretail milk shops/milk shops
Milk sale points- 10% purchase milk from these sale points
General stores/super markets- 4% from these general
stores and the super markets
Own animals- Only two percent of urban consumers get milk fromtheir own animals in big cities, cities and towns
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Participants of dairy supply chains
Milk producers: 8 m FHHs with herd size 50 m milch animals, spread across1000 sq.km- 43% with 1-2 animals, 28% 3-4 animals-Producing 80% milk.
Milk collectors (Dhodies): SSMC-200-400 kg/day from remote areas,long term contracts at predetermined price offering a share of milk price in advance. MSMC-400-800 kg/day with a similar manner, carryout door to door milk delivery and sell in somenearby market. LSMC- > 1500-3000 kg/day, purchase from SSMC & MSMC, sell to retailshops, adulteration is practiced by LSMCs
De-creamers and khoya markers:milk men stay withdecreamers & Khoya makers on way to town/cities. Some SSMC sell milk todecreamers, decreamers sell part to halwaies & confectioners
Milk processors: small share
Consumers
Government organizations: PDDC, PDDB, AHComm. (Fed),L&DDD (Prov). PSDP-Project (Milk collection processing dairy production and dev.Program)-Subsidized livestock services for milk collection and marketing,development of genetically superior animals
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Fresh milk supply chain for milk collectors
Rural DairyProducers
(Rs. 16-18/kg)
Small ScaleMilk
Collectors(Rs. 18-22/kg)
Medium ScaleMilk
Collectors(Rs. 18-22/kg)
Large ScaleMilk
Collectors(Rs. 22-32/kg)
Urban
Consumers
Milk Shops/ SalePoint (Rs. 24-
35/kg)
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Constraints Associated in Retail FreshMilk Supply Chain
The product sub-system: Poor quality milk (poor milk production system, poor skills of
handling, storage and transport system of unhygienic milk).
The quality of milk is deteriorated with the use of adulterant bymilkmen.
The Information sub-system:
The absence of effective market information flows within the milksupply chain inhibits feedback from the market apart from priceinformation which is determined with the supply and demandsituation.
The Value sub-system:
There is a variation in the prices at the producer, milkmen and milk-shop. There is no system at all to control milk quality.
The Governance sub-system:
The dominant role of milkmen may be reduced by enhancing theshare of processed milk.
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The Domestic Retail Processed Dairy supply Chain
Rural DairyProducers
(Rs. 16-18/kg)
Third partycollection oncommission
basis (Rs. 2/kg)
Self collectionon the basis of
fat (Rs. 5/kg)
Collection,processing,
packing anddistribution
charges about
(Rs. 19-22/kg)
Urban
Consumers(Rs. 42/kg) for
different brands
Rural DairyProducers
(Rs. 16-18/kg)
Third partycollection oncommission
basis (Rs. 2/kg)
Self collection
on the basis offat (Rs. 5/kg)
Collection,processing,
packing anddistribution
charges about
(Rs. 19-22/kg)
Urban
Consumers(Rs. 42/kg) for
different brands
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Constraints of Retail Processed Milk Supply Chain
The product sub-system:
Consumers complaints about the taste of processed milk(unhygienic handling, storage and transport system ofmilk collected by third party adulterants by third party).
The Information sub-system:
The absence of effective market information flows withinthe milk supply chain inhibits feedback from the marketapart from price information.
The Value sub-system:
There is no price variation for different brand of milk
The Governance sub-system:
Multinational and private companies charges too much forthe collection, processing packing and distribution highprice.
Supply/Value chain for Smallholder Milk
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Supply/Value chain for Smallholder MilkFarms
World Bank 2006
11 buffalo farmFarm gate price =US$ 16.70/100kg
Cost of production =US$10.76/100kgProfit = =US$ 5.93/100kg
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Allocation of development funds for livestock projects
Pakistan Total Cost %age of total Projects #
Fed Govt 5.28 27.8 7
Punjab 6.62 34.8 27
NWFP 0.89 4.6 11
Baluchistan 0.26 1.3 16
Sindh 5.93 31.2 21
Pakistan 18.98 99.7 82
Federal Govt.: one project costing Rs. 199 million is donor assisted (EU), 1 is project on
Avianinflunza, 2 on health components, 1 on animal production
Bulk of funds (83%) goes to thee Dairy, Meat and extension
Punjab Govt. out of 27 projects 16 (86% funds) on animal production aspects, 6 on animalhealth, the largest project is on establishment of milk processing plants and milk collection
centers at Layya and Sialkot costing 1.15 billion rupees
NWFP Govt. out of 11 projects 5 on animal production and on animal health
Balochistan Govt. out of 16 projects 9 on animal production, on Vet. Facilities
Sind Govt. 87% funds fo animal production with very little for animal health
ISSUES OF DAIRY PAKISTAN
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ISSUES OF DAIRY PAKISTAN Poor quality of fresh milk & high price of processed milk
How quality fresh milk and cheaper processed milk can be ensured to consumers?
Small scale and subsistence dairy farming system (80% of milk) How participation of SF in modern value chain be guaranteed?
Limited physical farm performance:Poor genetic andreproductive efficiency, epidemics of infectious diseases,inadequate feeding and ineffective vet. Cover-- low milk yield
Week financial farm performance:Low milk prices,constraints on milk marketing and distribution
Underutilization of dairy industry as at present working at 50%of installed capacity processing only 3.23% of milk.
Institutional and regulatory issues:Poor investment ininfrastructure, establishment and implementation of livestocklegislation
There is need to Clarify the issues that are holding back dairy industry
development and role of government
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OBJECTIVES OF THE PROJECT
To assess the effects of verticalcoordination on transaction costs and farmprofitability of smallholders in dairy,horticulture and poultry sectors
To identify different forms of integrationthat could sustainably improve wellbeingof small holder farmers in dairy,horticulture and poultry value chains
To determine the policy implications forsmallholders, agribusiness, public policyand investment priorities.
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METHODOLOGY
Field surveys(sampling and questionnaire
development)
Analytical techniques - The Value chainapproach
Transaction cost SCP of value chains for HVA
Logit model for participation assessment ofsmallholders/effects of value chain on
smallholders SWOT analysis by ranking techniques for
strategic options to integrate the smallholdersinto value chains
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Sample DistributionItems Dairy
PRODUCTION & MARKETINGi) Multinationalii) Cooperative/ Associationsiii) Domestic-Private Sector
Contact FarmersNon-Contact FarmersTotal Farmers
200200200
600300900
PROCESSORSCONSUMERS
101200
PROPOSED CASE STUDIES
Commodities Multinational Coop/Growers
associations
Domestic-Private sector
Milk Nestle Halla Haleeb, Noon, Chaudry dairy etc.
S li C i i
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Sampling CriteriaMulti-national Nestle
Sheikupura & Kabirwala:Nestle milk area; 100 km radius; 20villages 10 regular milk supplier to Hella and 5 non-contact = 300)
CooperativeHella
Kasur & Okara:Hella milk area; 100 km radius; 20 villages; 10regular milk supplier to Hella and 5 non-contact = 300)
Privatesector Jhang & Sargodha:Dairy Choudhry milk area; 100 km radius; 20villages 10 regular milk supplier to Halla and 5 non-contact = 300)
Dairy Sector
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Expect Impact of Research
The proposed research is expectedto contribute to an increasedunderstandings of value chains forHVA products in Pakistan; to providenew ideas for improving theintegration of smallholders, smalland medium enterprises, and the
smallholders with value chains andto assist in policy dialogue related tomaking markets work better for thesmallholders.
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Expected Output Analytical papers contributing to an increased
understanding of value chains for HVAP Specific output for Policy Implications:
Policy directions to strengthened vertical linkages forgreater involvement of SF in the process of cutting downtransaction costs and improving marketing efficiency
Needed policy changes for promoting supper marketsand retail food chains to benefit SF and consumers
Needed policy changes for investment opportunities invalue chains, instt. Building and infrastructures
Assist in policy dialogue to make agri. Markets work
better for small farmers
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