Chapter 2: Spotting Trends And Opportunities- Opening Your Eyes

Learning Objectives:1. Develop your business intuition by training your eyes and ears to

“sense” the future of market forces specific to customer needs2. Understand the “big picture” and its effect on trends and

opportunities3. Learn to become your own futurist4. Understand changing family structures and the impact on

businesses5. Gain an awareness of cultural changes as well as the splintering of

the mass market6. Research technological changes that will directly impact your

industry7. Begin to access the vast array of available secondary resources8. Become excited about brainstorming techniques and embrace

change9. Learn how to conduct “new eyes” research by scanning your

environment10. Analyze the potential for small business-success by applying the

life-cycle yardstick to industries

Opening Your Eyes and Mind to Vast Opportunities

Which new firms are succeeding in your selected industry? What new target markets are developing? How can you meet the needs of again baby boomers? What about the needs of echo boomers/millennials & the

iGenerations? What desires for products or services do you & your friends

have? Is there a product you could repurpose? Are there products you could combine to increase their value? Can you take a product or service & make is “sustainable”? Any new avenues or channels to sell your product? It’s a Dynamic World

Action Step 8:$1,000 and a Working Vehicle

What business can you start with little money and no employees?

What if you only have $1,000 to invest and a working vehicle? Ask friends what they need and look around elsewhere What are people accomplishing with small investments? What opportunities can you explore further? Can you purchase products to resell online? Can you tap into a skill you already possess? Compile a list of your potential opportunities & share them What are people willing to pay for you products & services? How often would they purchase? Who are your competitors?

Action Step 9: Opening Your Mind to New Information

Don’t just think outside the box – get outside it! First stop: Large bookstore

Read new magazines & bestselling books What did you learn? Any new opportunities or genres?

Second stop: Twitter & iTunes What’s hot? What’s not? Opportunities?

Third stop: Local mall Find out what’s new & hot Investigate service, prices, selections & long lines Do you want to compete?

Action Step 9: Opening Your Mind to New Information

Fourth stop: Your favorite store Look for new products & services Can your guesstimate shelf velocity? Internet

competition? Fifth stop: Your television set

Watch CNN World Report and make a list of stories Surprises? Opportunities? Problems to be solved?

IDEO, TrendHunter, TechCrunch, Science Explore new technologies What’s innovative? What problems need solving?

Final stop: Stay logged on Surf unknown topics to find opportunities and surprises

Environmental Variables

Technology Biotechnology, sustainability, energy sources development,

nanotechnology, person genomics, water shortages Competition

Deregulation & regulation, “big box stores”, Internet, mobile technology, international

Social/cultural Immigration, single households, single parents, religion, ethnic

shifts, again population Legal/political

Who is in power, tax laws, changing rules Economics

Recessions, inflation, down-shifting, cost of housing, food, energy

The Futurist’s Top Ten Forecasts for 2012 and Beyond

Learning will become more social & game-based Commercial space tourism will grow significantly Nanotechnology offers hope for restoring eyesight Robotic earthworms will gobble up garbage Giant dustbowls are forming Lunar-based solar power production for energy

demands Machine vision will become available Advances in fuel cells will enable deep-sea habitation Future buildings more responsive to weather changes The end of identity as we know it as it becomes easy

to create new identities for ourselves

Changing Household Structures and Demographics

Only 1 in 5 households = married couple with children Number of households headed by women have

doubled Single member households are higher than ever Many diverse groups that need services Higher need for social entrepreneurs Generation Y will need training & retraining Immigration will play a leading role in future growth Success depends on recognizing & capitalizing on

change

America is Changing: Pew Research Center Publications

Trends suggest a 50% population growth in the U.S. from 2005 to 2050, mostly due to immigration

By 2050: Nearly 1 in 5 Americans will be an immigrant The Latino population will triple in size Whites will become a minority (47%) Elderly population will more than double Black population will rise 56% There will be 72 dependents per 100 adults of

working age

Action Step 10: Changes = Trends = Opportunities

Pick up the last six issues: The Economist, Time and The Wall Street Journal

Goal is to spot changes before trends develop

Being at the forefront of trends makes business-savvy people rich

Look for Changes, Trends and Opportunities: Social/Cultural, Competition, Technology Legal/Political, Economics

Boomer Explosion

By 2030 half of all adults will be 50+ Desire to do whatever possible to postpone aging Massive growth in home healthcare Endless opportunities for service & housing

Boomers are wealthy & educated It pays to ask them what they want

Many “sandwich generation” boomers Those who care for both teens & aging parents

are in special need of help Look for additional opportunities to serve

boomers

Millenials Rising & iGeneration Always Connected

Millenials First generation to grow up digital Needs are being met by new “sharing economy” Must prove product/service is relevant to their

lives iGeneration

Uncomfortable without technology Tremendous influence over parents buying habits Have to be creative to break through to them

Passion: Build Your Future, Inc. – Redefining a Life and Living with Passion

Action Step 11: Spotting Trends in Your Selected Target Markets

Select the target market of your choice Search the net for info staring with census data Go through a day in the life of your selected target

market & interact with the social media they use What trends do they identify with? What products & services do they desire? How can you meet their needs? Ask questions and listen to the answers Compile a list of products & services your Target

Customer identifies with

The Splintering of the Mass Market A shrinking middle class

40% of financial net worth lost over the past 5 years Income has stagnated & debt has risen Wealth of top 1% has grown significantly Two distinct marketing strategies: Tiffany’s & Dollar General

Ethnic groups shifting & growing in the U.S. Living arrangements changing & evolving

Only 51% of adults are married 28% of households are one person More young people between 25 & 34 live with parents Multigenerational families are growing

Franchises Respond to Social & Cultural Changes: 10 Top 2012

New Franchises No Mas Vello (lasar hair

removal) Complete Nutrition Yogurtland ShelfGenie (custom shelving) The Senior’s Choice (assisted

living/healthcare) CPR-Cell-Phone-Repair Get in Shape for Women Signal 88 Security Menchie’s Frozen Yogurt Smashburgers (hamburgers)

Fastest - Growing Franchises Stratus Building Solutions

(commercial cleaning) Subway CleanNet USA (commercial

cleaning Vanguard Cleaning Systems H&R Block Dunkin’ Donuts Chester’s (fast-service

chicken) Liberty Tax Service 7-Eleven, Inc. Anytime Fitness

Action Step 12: Have Fun Identifying Problems and Opportunities

Seek information by asking friends their wants and needs Look for gaps in the marketplace but don’t judge Adapt questions to fit your market:

What frustrates you most about your daily life? What products do you need or want but cannot find? Which ones would enhance your life? What would make

you happy? How can you increase productivity without working

more? Project the gaps out as far as you can into the marketplace Respond to your friends wants and needs Are the needs local, national or global?

Information Explosion & Technology Revolution

Our private and work lives are converging

With technology our workplaces can be in contact 24/7

How can you help customers manage work-life stress?

Computers & smartphones have changed every facet of life

What opportunities do you see?

Action Step 13: Investigate New Technologies

Read tech industry magazines & look for articles that amaze you

Watch TED talks on technology – what did you find? What opportunities did you discover? Share your findings – a breakthrough in one

industry may lead to a breakthrough in another Search out research on your selected industry What ideas can you follow up on? Better prepared to focus on technology

opportunities Never stop reading - follow emerging technologies

Information is Everywhere Use market research, creativity & innovation to

discover the right opportunity for you Start with secondary research and find out what

others have been doing Contact trade associations & read trade

journals Read magazines & media kits to gather

demographic, psychographic & usage information After learning the basics conduct primary

research to find out exactly what your potential customer wants

New eyes research provides a variety of fresh ways to look at business

Action Step 14: Launch Your Industry Research

Locate your industry’s trade associations as well as those that your potential suppliers & customers may belong to

Contact the associations and request information Attend a meeting of an association relevant to your

industry Read magazines for your industry & those that

reach your Target Customer and suppliers Read online media kits Do this now – you will need it to complete later

Steps

Action Step 15: Just for Fun Start to Decode

Use “new eyes” to uncover the lifestyle of your customer by analyzing a shopping cart

What can you deduce about each shopper’s lifestyle?

What do other things say about them? Put your deductions with a demographic checklist

to decide if any shoppers are your Target Customers

Look for “heavy users” in your business Another alternative is to create this assignment

using a social media site like Facebook

The Big Picture & Mind Mapping Your Way Into Small Business

A Business Plan begins with an industry overview which helps you understand your niche

To be successful you need to know what business you are in

See megacorporations as an opportunity, not a threat

Look before you leap and continue to study the marketplace

Brainstorming Techniques

Gather people with different ideas, backgrounds & experience

Appreciate the “idea” person Structure sessions to maximize creativity Have everyone arrive with an idea or problem that

needs solving Before closing, cast a vote to select two or three hot

ideas Brainstorm the hot ideas further to get the energy rolling The best sessions occur when you connect brain-to-brain

with creative, positive people Brain energy is real and you need to keep tapping it Great snacks keep the troops fortified!

Brainstorming Techniques

Find imaginative people and don’t judge Find a neutral location without interruptions Encourage members to reinforce & challenge each

other Consider recording the session Pick a time that is convenient & not rushed Invite 5-10 people to allow for no-shows and dropouts Schedule the start time, relax & begin in half a hour Allow time for self-introductions: participants should not

be modest! Encourage everyone to listen to each other Silence is good – it means people are thinking Laugh and enjoy the process

Life-Cycle Stages

Embryo Trend is just beginning & in its formative stage

Growth Trend is exploding

Mature Trend is no longer growing & beginning to

wane Decline

Trend is beyond maturity and feeling chilly Think about these stages often!

Action Step 16: Match Trends with Life-Cycle Stages

Pull out your notes with your trends, products & services and problems to solve

Draw a life-cycle chart What stage is each item it?

Embryo/birth? Growth? Maturity? Look for opportunities in the embryo & growth

stage If entering the embryo stage, be prepared to “beat

the pavement” If entering a mature or declining market, be

prepared to meet & beat the compeition head-on

Think Points for Success

The most valuable tool you have for charting trends is new- eyes research combined with extensive secondary and primary research.

Keeping your eyes open will keep you one step ahead.

The life-cycle yardstick helps you discover a growth industry.

Trends don’t develop overnight.

Try to latch onto a trend that will help you survive in style for the next 3 to 5 years.

Don’t assume that because you’ve caught one trend another won’t nip your heels.

Once you know what segment you’re in, focus your research.

Read everything you can and talk to everyone you can.

Trends are like customers. You can spot some. Others won’t show up until you’re in business wondering if you will make it.

You’re now a great trend spotter, so it’s time to analyze the opportunities you have unearthed.