Energy for SustainabilityRandolph & Masters, 2008

Chapter 13:Transportation Energy and

Efficient Vehicles

Transportation and Energy

Transportation Energy Trends Vehicle technologies and efficiency

HEV, BEV, FCEV Alternative fuels

Biofuels Land Use and Transportation

Compact, mixed-use development Transit oriented development Anti-sprawl urban growth boundaries Urban Heat Island

Transportation Energy Trends

U.S. Transportation: 28% of total energy (2005), 25% (1975).

Transportation consumes 68% of the U.S. petroleum, 55% of world oil.

Transportation relies almost exclusively on oil: 96% of transportation energy came from oil in 2005. Natural gas (3%) pumps natural gas pipelines.

Transportation contributes 32% of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions in 2005.

Transportation is the primary source of urban air pollution, including in the U.S. 82% of carbon monoxide emissions, and 56% and 42% respectively of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds, which combine to form urban smog.

More Transportation Trends

What if the oil-intensive U.S. patterns of transportation, dominated by personal vehicles, are adopted by developing countries, like China? Oil markets, GHG emissions, and urban air pollution? There are about 800 million vehicles in the world today and that number could grow to 3.25 million by 2050, led by China and India, each of which now has a middle class population exceeding the total U.S. population.

Transportation energy consumption data include operating energy to fuel transport of people and materials. However, like building energy use data, they do not include the embodied energy required for the construction and maintenance of the infrastructure of roads, parking lots, airports, and rail, with its

energy intensive concrete, asphalt, and steel.

Growth of U.S. Vehicles per 1000 People, 1900-2002, with 2002 values for selected countries and regions.

NRDC Vision: Eliminate Gasoline by 2050

Smart growth to reduce VMT Vehicle efficiency Biofuels

U.S. Transportation Energy by Mode, 2004

U.S. Transportation Petroleum

Highway energy by mode

U.S. Passenger Travel Intensity, 2004

Congestion

Personal vehicles: our oil fix

Vehicle Types

Internal Combustion Engines (ICE) Otto cycle gasoline engine

Flex-fuel Otto cycle takes up to E-85 biofuel Diesel engine

Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) All Electric Vehicle (BEV) Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV)

Diesel and Flex-fuel Engines

Diesel vehicles: The diesel engine differs from the Otto gasoline engine in that it takes air

into the cylinder and compresses it, then injects distillate (diesel) fuel. The higher compression ratio (piston downstroke to upstroke volume) of

the diesel engine (about 15 or 20:1 compared to 8 or 10:1 for the Otto cycle) heats the compressed air hot enough to ignite the fuel without a spark, driving the piston downward and turning the crankshaft.

European diesel sales

U.S. next?

Clean diesel: Volkswagon, Daimler BlueTec System

Flex-fuel gasoline/biofuel vehicles The fuel may contain anywhere from zero to 85%

ethanol (E85) Ethanol contains more oxygen than gasoline. The

vehicles come equipped with an oxygen sensor which determines the amount of ethanol in the fuel at any time. It provides this information to the onboard computer, which then adjusts the engine to maximize efficiency and performance.

Cost: <$100/vehicle 7-8 million on the road; ~1 million sold each year

Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Series

Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Parallel

Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Parallel-Series

U.S. Hybrid Electric Vehicle Sales, 2000–2007

Year Number Sold

2000 9350

2001 20,287

2002 35,000

2003 47,525

2004 88,000

2005 210,000

2006 268,000

2007 352,000

2008 ~500,000?

70% Toyota, 4.7% U.S. car sales

Big Hybrids boom over next decade?

By 2010, 5-6% of all cars sold in America will be HEVs, assuming current oil prices (ABI Research & Automotive Technology Research Group).

By 2011, about 35 HEV models will be on the market, with that number exceeding 50 in 2012 (J.D. Power).

By 2015, HEVs will make up 3% of the total U.S. light vehicle market (J.D. Power).

By 2015, HEVs will make up 80% of the U.S. market (Booz Allen Hamilton).

By 2025, HEVs will account for 1.5 million vehicles or a 7% market share (U.S. EIA).

By 2030, HEVS will be 30% of the U.S. new car market (ExxonMobil).

Driven by higher fuel cost

Efficiency: U.S. CAFE Standards & Sales

Efficiency Standards around the World

U.S. Air Pollutant Emission Rates

U.S. Standard

California Std(+12 states)

Vehicle GHG Score

California AB 1493 Pavley Act

30% reduction in vehicle GHG emissions by 2016 with phase-in starting 2009

15 states poised to adopt California standard when approved by EPA

Request for waiver of preemption under CAA denied by EPA in December 2007

CA and other states taking EPA to court Supreme Court 2007 Massachusetts v. EPA decision

requiring EPA to consider CO2 as air pollutant will influence this debate

Emerging Technologies: Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle (PHEV)

Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle:simply add an extra battery bank

Retrofit packages: Hymotion

PHEV offer certain advantages

With greater use of the electric drive, the vehicle uses less gasoline and is more efficient than conventional HEV on a mpg of gasoline basis. Some PHEV Prius retrofits have achieved 100 mpg over 1000 miles of travel.

With greater use of the electric drive in city driving, the PHEV is a zero emission vehicle (ZEV) that can reduce emissions and improve urban air quality.

Electric Drive Vehicles: Gas-equivalent “Price per Gallon” and CO2 Emissions

One-quarter the cost of gasoline

(at 10¢/kWh, $3/gal)

One-half the CO2 emissions as gasoline

(at average U.S. electricity sources: 52% coal)

Where do you get the electricity?

Vehicles charged at night by grid power during off-peak hours

Plug-in Vehicles can enhance Distributed Renewable Generation Your PV garage roof is your filling station Night-time demand provides a market for grid

wind power or other intermittent generation.

The PV Garage could easily charge a vehicle for 30-45 all-electric miles per day

All Electric Vehicles

The Tesla Roadster

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20% EV

40% vehicle-miles EV

Current electric capacity in California could supply 40% of VMT

What about grid capacity to charge vehicles?

Vehicles-to-Grid (V2G) Electricity Storage A large fleet of Plug-in Hybrids and/or all Electric

Vehicles enable a vehicle-to-grid (V2G) power storage system.

Batteries in electric vehicles (charged primarily at night) can provide a bank of electricity storage for the grid when they are parked and plugged in at parking ramps and lots during the day when peak power is needed.

A vehicle-to-grid (V2G) system would require careful control and accounting to manage large numbers of vehicles supplying high-value, quick response grid services

Distant dream or sooner than most think?

Rising interest in plug-in hybrids, V2G Austin, Texas: promoting plug-ins and V2G to

make better use of wind energy capacity Google: plug-ins and on-site solar

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDjSbWTJbdo&eurl=http://www.google.org/recharge/overview.html

Lovins’ Winning the Oil End Game

The scenario calls for halving the amount of oil used in the U.S. and substituting alternatives for the other half.

By taking critical steps now, the U.S. could save as much oil as it gets from the Persian Gulf by

2015; set the stage by 2025 for the option of transitioning

to a hydrogen economy (what Lovins refers to as the “checkmate move in the Oil Endgame); and

have a flourishing economy without oil by 2050.

Hypercar RevolutionLight-weight, composite material, aerodynamic hybrid: 66 mpg

The four integrated steps include:

Doubling the efficiency of using oil, primarily through ultralight vehicle design

Applying creative business models and public policies for adoption of superefficient vehicles.

Providing another one-fourth of U.S. oil needs by a major domestic biofuels industry.

Substituting natural gas for oil using gas saved by profitable efficiency techniques that could save half of the projected 2025 use of natural gas.

Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles

Honda Home Energy Natural Gas Reformer for Hydrogen

Hydrogen Fuel Cells

Entering the Age of Gases?

H2 Industry says FCV necessary

Well-to-Wheels Life-cycle Assessment

DOE’s Hydrogen Themes Hydrogen is “The Freedom Fuel”

Hydrogen provides independence and an environmental choice

Hydrogen solves foreign oil dependency and improves the environment

Hydrogen is everywhere—"it’s right in our backyard“

A hydrogen economy includes other fuels

Hydrogen—it works (it is an ongoing business today)

Hydrogen is safe

Hydrogen is a long-term energy solution

Hydrogen is the “man on the moon” equivalent for this generation

But…there are challenges Hydrogen production: hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe and a key

element of water. The challenge is splitting it from water or other substances and this requires energy.

Steam methane reforming; Electrolysis of water; Emerging technologies include thermochemical water splitting, solar photolytic processes, and fossil fuel H2 production with carbon sequestration.

It is critical that the production process be carbon-free, energy efficient, and modular to enhance distributed production.

Hydrogen transport and delivery is best provided by pipeline using the natural gas pipeline system. Household or business gas distribution pipelines and metering can be used for personal fueling of mobile uses like automobiles, but a new delivery infrastructure (refueling stations) would also be needed.

Hydrogen storage presents technical challenges especially for mobile applications. Hydrogen can be compressed and liquefied, but emerging technologies for metal and chemical hydride storage may offer the best options for stability and volume.

Hydrogen conversion includes traditional combustion in boilers, engines, and turbines, and also conversion to electricity in fuel cells. Advance in fuel cell technologies, which can convert H2 to electricity at efficiencies of 60% or more, provide the trump card for hydrogen transportation and electricity generation.

Hydrogen applications are diverse from on-site distributed electricity generation to vehicle transportation, both using efficient fuel cells.

From Science August 2004 Issue: “Toward the Hydrogen Economy”

If ever a phrase tripped lightly over the tongue, “the hydrogen economy” does. It appeals to the futurist in all of us, and it sounds so simple: We currently have a carbon economy (and CO2 and global warming). We will eventually be able to power our cars and industries with climate-neutral hydrogen, which produces only water.

Well, can we? There are problems, and they’re serious. To convert the U.S. economy in this way will require a lot of hydrogen: about 150 million tons of it in each year. That hydrogen will have to be made by extracting it from water or biomass, and that takes energy…. At normal human-scale temperatures, is an invisible gas: light, jittery, and slippery; hard to store, transport, liquefy, and handle safely; and capable of releasing only as much energy as human beings first pump into it. Using hydrogen as a common currency for an energy economy will be far from simple….

[What is needed is a] mix of social and economic changes that might actually reduce current emissions.

But current U.S. policy offers few incentives for that. Instead, it is concentrating on research programs [like hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles and hydrogen from fossil fuels] designed to bring us a hydrogen economy that will not be carbon-free and will not be with us any time soon.

The trouble with the plan to focus on research and the future, of course, is that the exploding trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions won’t take time off while we are all waiting for the hydrogen economy. Meanwhile, our attention is deflected from the hard, even painful measures that would be needed to slow our business-as-usual carbon trajectory. Postponing action on emissions reduction is like refusing medication for a developing infection: It guarantees that greater costs will have to be paid later.

Well-to-Wheels Assessment

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California Energy Commission WTW

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