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Predicting the Markets:Chapter 12 Charts:
Predicting CurrenciesYardeni Research, Inc.
February 18, 2021
Dr. Edward YardeniChief Investment Strategist
Mali QuintanaSenior Economist
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
February 18, 2021 / Chapter 12 Charts: Predicting Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Predicting Currencies 1-19
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-.8
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
-.8
-.6
-.4
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Dec
NET INFLOWS INTO EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS(cumulative flows since 2000, trillion dollars)
TotalInternational*Domestic
* Includes Global & International, Emerging Markets, and Regional Funds.Source: Investment Company Institute.
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Figure 1.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
Dec
NET INFLOWS INTO EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS(cumulative flows since 2000, percent of total)
International*Domestic
* Includes Global & International, Emerging Markets, and Regional Funds.Source: Investment Company Institute.
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Figure 2.
Predicting Currencies
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52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.1
20.1
40.1
60.180.1
.1
20.1
40.1
60.180.1
Q3TOTAL VALUE OF US STOCKS(trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale)
US Equity Issues at Market Value
Total Ex Foreign Issues*Total
* Total excluding market value of holdings of foreign corporate equities, investment fund shares, and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs)by US residents.Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States.
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Figure 3.
52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q3
FOREIGN EQUITIES HELD BY US RESIDENTS(as percent of total market value of equities held by US residents)
Foreign EquitiesShare in US*
* Market value of holdings of foreign corporate equities, investment fund shares, and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) by US residentsas a percent of the market value of their total equity holdings.Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States.
yard
eni.c
om
Figure 4.
Predicting Currencies
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59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 233
153
303
453
6037539031053
3
153
303
453
603753903
1053
Q3CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS RECEIPTS FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD*(billion dollars, saar, ratio scale)
* Including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profitstax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 5.
59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 235
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Q3
CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS RECEIPTS FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD*(as a percent of pre-tax corporate profits)
* Including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profitstax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 6.
Predicting Currencies
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73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 230
50
100
150
200
0
50
100
150
200
2/122/12
FED’S TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEXES(daily)
Major*(3/73=100)Broad**(1/97=100)
* Countries included in the Advanced Foreign Economies (AFE) index: Australia, Canada, Euro Area, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, andthe United Kingdom.
** Countries included in the Broad Dollar Index: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Euro Area, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia,Israel, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, United Kingdom, and Vietnam.Source: Federal Reserve Board.
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Figure 7.
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REPLICATE’ing above limits
02-18-2021 - 13:27:25
Figure 8.
Predicting Currencies
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96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.015
.020
.025
.030
.035
.015
.020
.025
.030
.035
2/18
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EMERGING MARKETS MSCI INDEX CURRENCY RATIO(US$ index / local currency index, daily)
Source: MSCI.
Figure 9.
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2/18
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Source: MSCI.
DEVELOPED WORLD EX-US MSCI INDEX CURRENCY RATIO(US$ index / local currency index, daily)
Figure 10.
Predicting Currencies
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68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2428
428
828
1228
1628
20282428
28
428
828
1228
1628
20282428
2/17GOLD PRICE*(dollars per troy ounce, ratio scale)
* Cash price. London gold bullion, PM Fix. Monthly from 1968 through 1974, then daily.Source: Wall Street Journal and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 11.
52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2670
170
270
370
470
570
670
70
170
270
370
470
570
670
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100, ratio scale) 2/17
* Weekly from January 9, 1951 to May 26, 1981, then daily. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops,hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Commodity Research Bureau.
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Figure 12.
Predicting Currencies
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70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 843
8
13
18
23
28
33
38
4348
3
8
13
18
23
28
33
38
4348
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE(dollars per barrel, ratio scale, monthly)
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 13.
47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Q4
NET EXPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN NOMINAL GDP(as a percent of nominal GDP)
TotalEx Petroleum
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 14.
Predicting Currencies
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85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-3400
-3000
-2600
-2200
-1800
-1400
-1000
-600
-200
200
600
1000
-3400
-3000
-2600
-2200
-1800
-1400
-1000
-600
-200
200
600
1000
Jan
US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE(12-month sum, billion dollars)
Source: US Treasury Department.
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Figure 15.
68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.2
3.2
6.2
9.2
12.2
15.218.221.2
.2
3.2
6.2
9.2
12.2
15.218.221.2
JanUS TREASURY DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC*(trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale)
* Marketable interest-bearing bills, notes, and bonds.Source: US Treasury Department, Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States.
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Figure 16.
Predicting Currencies
Page 8 / February 18, 2021 / Chapter 12 Charts: Predicting Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22200
300
400
500
600
700
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
2/18
2/17
INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR(daily)
JP Morgan NominalBroad Effective Exchange Rate**(inverted scale)
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*(1967=100)
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,
Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan.
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Figure 17.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
50
100
150
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
2/18
INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR(daily)
JP Morgan NominalBroad Effective Exchange Rate*(inverted scale)
Brent Crude Oil Price(dollars per barrel)
* Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States.Source: JP Morgan and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 18.
Predicting Currencies
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210
500
1000
1500
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
2/18
2/18EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX &TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR(daily)
Emerging MarketsMSCI Stock Price Index(in dollars)
JP Morgan NominalBroad Effective Exchange Rate*(inverted scale)
* Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States.Source: JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley Capital International.
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Figure 19.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jan
S&P 500 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: EARNINGS & MARKET-CAP SHARES(percent)
Capitalization Share (27.2)Earnings Share* (22.6)
* Using S&P 500 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 20.
Predicting Currencies
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225
15
25
35
45
55
5
15
25
35
45
55
Jan
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P 500*
S&P 500 (22.6)S&P 500 Technology (27.2)
* S&P 500 stock price index divided by S&P 500 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 21.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.5
2.5
4.5
6.5
8.5
10.5
12.5
.5
2.5
4.5
6.5
8.5
10.5
12.5
Oct
Oct
NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES: ADVANCED & EMERGING ECONOMIES(trillion dollars, ratio scale)
International Reserves Held By:Advanced Economies*Emerging Economies
* Includes United States, Canada, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland,Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom.Source: IMF and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 22.
Predicting Currencies
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022200
300
400
500
600
700
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
.9
.8
2/18
2/17
INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & CANADIAN DOLLAR(daily)
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*
Canada(C$/US$, inverted scale)
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 23.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022200
300
400
500
600
700
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
.9
.8
2/18
INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR(daily)
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*
Australia(A$/US$, inverted scale)
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 24.
Predicting Currencies
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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-1000
-500
0
500
1000
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
Q3
Q3
US INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS:CURRENT vs FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCES(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Account BalanceCurrent*Financial**
* US exports less imports of goods and services plus net income from abroad.** Net incurrence of liabilities less net acquisition of financial assets.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 25.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
Q3
US INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS: STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 26.
Predicting Currencies
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97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
-700
-600
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-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Dec
Jan
CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(billion dollars)
Merchandise Trade Surplus or Deficit(12-month sum)Non-Gold International Reserves(12-month change)
Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 27.
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-1300
-1200
-1100
-1000
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
-1300
-1200
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-800
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-500
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-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Dec
CHINA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS*(billion dollars)
* 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus (deficit).Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 28.
Predicting Currencies
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96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 228.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan2/18
CHINA: NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES & YUAN
Non-Gold International Reserves(trillion dollars, nsa)
Yuan/US$(inverted scale)
Source: IMF and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 29.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-1000
0
1000
2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
Oct
Dec
WORLD EX-US: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(billion dollars)
World Trade Surplus with US*(12-month sum)World Non-GoldInternational Reserves(12-month change)
* US trade deficit multiplied by -1.0.Source: IMF and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 30.
Predicting Currencies
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
Oct
WORLD EX-US: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS*(billion dollars)
* 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus with US (i.e., US trade deficit multiplied by -1.0).Source: IMF and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 31.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2222
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
-16
-18
-20
-22
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
Oct
2/12
IMPLIED WORLD EX-US CAPITAL FLOWS& TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change)
JP Morgan NominalBroad EffectiveExchange Rate**(inverted scale)
Implied World Ex-USCapital Flows*
* 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus (deficit). US trade deficit multiplied by -1.0.** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,
Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: IMF and JP Morgan.
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Figure 32.
Predicting Currencies
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2220
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
-16
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Oct
2/12
WORLD NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (12-month change, billion dollars)& TRADE WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change)
JP Morgan NominalBroad EffectiveExchange Rate**(inverted scale)
World Non-GoldInternational Reserves*(12-month change)
* 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus (deficit). US trade deficit multiplied by -1.0.** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,
Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: IMF and JP Morgan.
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Figure 33.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2220
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
-16
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Oct
2/12
WORLD NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (yearly percent change)& TRADE WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change)
JP Morgan NominalBroad EffectiveExchange Rate*(inverted scale)
World Non-GoldInternational Reserves(yearly percent change)
* Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany,Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan,Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey,United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States.Source: IMF and JP Morgan.
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Figure 34.
Predicting Currencies
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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.8
2.8
4.8
6.8
8.8
10.8
12.8
14.8
.8
2.8
4.8
6.8
8.8
10.8
12.8
14.8
Q3Oct
Q3
INTERNATIONAL RESERVES HELD BY ALL CENTRAL BANKS(trillion dollars, ratio scale)
All Central BanksNon-Gold International ReservesTotal Foreign Exchange HoldingsTotal Allocated ReservesAllocated Reserves in US Dollars
Source: IMF.
yardeni.com
Figure 35.
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2260
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
Q3
CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF OFFICIAL FOREIGN-EXCHANGE RESERVES (COFER)(percent of Allocated Reserves in US dollars)
Percent of Allocated ReservesIn US Dollars
Source: IMF.
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Figure 36.
Predicting Currencies
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
Jan
Jan
TOTAL ASSETS OF MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS(trillion dollars)
ECBFed
Source: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 37.
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Task: PTMBLOGTWDJPMORGAN1
REPLICATE’ing above limits
02-18-2021 - 13:27:25
Figure 38.
Predicting Currencies
Page 19 / February 18, 2021 / Chapter 12 Charts: Predicting Currencies www.yardeni.com
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