BONNIE J. MCCAYFATE OF THE EARTH: ENVIRONMENT AND

HUMAN WELL-BEINGMICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY

APRIL3, 2014

Changing Climates for Adaptation

General Lessons Wicked problems…

Rittel & Webber 1973

Governance of complex systems should be “polycentric” (Ostrom) and “interactive” (Kooiman)

Beyond panaceas E. Ostrom 2007

Act boldly, risk failure AO Hirschman (The Hidden

Hand) But be adaptive

Holling; Gunderson et al.

Muddling through strategically Chas. Lindblom

[Participate] Early and Often A. Capone?

Once they have seen gay Paree Cultural inertia and resistance

You can’t go home again; Path dependency;

irreversibility. ITQs Horse is out of the barn

[Too little, too late]. Acidification

Market-based Ecosystem-based

Commodity-focusedExclusive and

tradeable withdrawal or use rights

EfficienciesConcentration Incentives for user-

funded research

Multiple-speciesRegime shiftsProtected areasHard choicesMulti-stakeholderScale issuesSpatial planning

trends in marine fisheries management

Shifting paradigms

Climate change: Fates & consequences for the earth’s oceans

Warmer sea temperatures

Changes in stratification, upwelling, etc.

Glacier Melting and Reduction of sea ice

AcidificationExploitation pressure

Harvesting Dredging Dumping Introducing alien species

Changes in living communities: plankton, benthos, pelagics

Changes in ecologically productive and sensitive habitats: coral reefs, grass beds, kelp forests, submarine canyons and mtns; etc.

Effects on coastal places—sea level rise, storm surges, salinization…

DIMINISHED ECOSYSTEM SERVICES & ELEVATED DANGERS

Hurricane Sandy from space, Oct. 2012

And then comes the sea

“Comedies of the Commons”

People as problem-solvers as well as problem-creators

People as social beings, trying to deal with and correct what seems out of kilter.

“The drama of humans as social rather than private beings, a drama of social actions having a frankly corrective purpose.” (M.E. Smith, 1984; McCay and Acheson 1987).

“The Commons”

Framework for thought and action“tragedy of the commons” –open access, profit-

seeking, little communication or governance.“romances/comedies of the commons” –

governance, communication, boundaries of various kinds, efforts to manage for present benefit and sustainable futures.

Objectifications: Leviathan, Hidden Hand, Noble Savage….versus more complex unfoldings, social and ecological processes, unexpected outcomes (Boonstra & Heung 2011)

Four stories

Newfoundland’s Fisheries: Tragedies of the commons and/or regime shifts

New Jersey’s surfclam fishery: Privatization of the commons; efficiency, industry initiatives, and climate change

Mexico’s lobster and abalone fisheries: Enclosure of the commons, community-based control and co-management. Marine reserves and resilience.

Oregon’s Pacific oyster hatcheries and acidification: surprise, adaptive responses.

“Tragedy of the Northern Cod”Fishery closed June

1992.

Plot of a tragedy….

Late 1980s, small-scale fishers petitioned for study, review

Government scientists found errors in stock assessments

Fishery continued nonetheless

Official disaster 1992

Contexts: collapse and privatization of corporate, industrial fisheries

Inaccuracies, analytic problems with data

“We’re all to blame”Scope and scale of

fish stocks versus ‘communities”

Responses after the cod collapse. Emergence of a more complicated plot

Leave fisheries (especially for shale oil and mining in western Canada); rural depopulation

Diversify into crustacean fisheries (crab and shrimp), more capital-intensive; more precautionary, exclusive management.

Variable water temperatures; quest for stability, with vested interests and political commitments

Eco-Certification: commitments to sustainable fisheries through MSC

US Northeast: Responses to Climate Change

Fisheries followed the fish….but only 10-30% as much.

Economic & regulatory constraints

Effects on fish stocks of lagged human responses?

Incorporation into fish stock assessment and management?

Source: Nye et al. 2009Pinsky & Fogarty 2012; McCay 2013

Surf ClamCase

Decline in southern portion of clam distribution

Some industry shift north but…

50% of landings from two ten minute squares, tho’ decline in catch rates

Opening of northern clam beds despite PSP risks, 2013

Industry resists scientific & regulatory changes; ITQs & global competition

Surfclam case study

FISHING COOPERATIVES OF THE VIZCAINO PENINSULA,

BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR

Local-level & nested commons management: a Mexican case

Spiny lobster (Panulirus interruptus)

Baja Calif. Linkages…

-116 .00 -115.60 -115.20 -114 .80 -114.40 -114 .00 -113 .60 -113 .2026 .20

26 .40

26 .60

26 .80

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29 .00Zona Pacífico Norte, Áreas Concesionadas a cada Cooperativa

P unta Abreojos

P rogresoLeyes de R eform a

C alifornia de San Ignacio

Em ancipación

B ahía T ortugas

B uzos y P escadores

La P urísim a

P escadores N acionales de Abulón

Successful Local-Level “Commons” Management:

Being benthic: close scale match between scale of the coop fisheries and biology of the major species

& the productivity, visibility and legibility of the resources and fisheries involved;

Strong commitment to enforcement and democratic decision-making

clarity of social and territorial boundaries;

adjacency and linkages among territorial units; federation

tight embeddedness of the cooperatives and fisheries within communities. (isolation, dependency)

McCay et al. 2013 (Marine Policy)

Coupling and “negative feedback”—Fishery cooperatives of BCS, Mexico

Threats of severe loss through closures“Co-management” arrangements with

government agencies“Self-management” internal rules for

lobster & abaloneNested “governance” systems, supported by

larger political, legal, social systems, linked to larger marine conservation community, globalized markets, and consumers (scales)

Experimental marine reserves: Isla Natividad

Managing for resilience: the Marine Protected Area experiment

2010 the Coop established experimental closed areas for abalone reef management, with help of NGOs & scientists.

Improved lobster & abalone.

Local monitoringAnoxic event 2012, die-

off of abalone.Commitment to marine

reserve strategy

Whiskey Creek Hatchery, Oregon Responses

2007-08 die-off CO2; carbonate less

available, esp. upwelling water

Industry lobby; funds for research; Monitoring systems; increase carbonate levels; Lummi use saltwater pond

Research, experimentation

Change in practices in hatcheries

Responses to Acidification: the West Coast Oyster Case

What to do?

Tall orders national, international,

and regional authorities Global, regional, ‘large

marine ecosystem’ scales ENGO and government-

led programs: coral triangle; MPA networks; Marine spatial planning; high seas fisheries; dealing with IUU; Eco-certification;….

Short orders Local and community-

oriented Small scale enterprises Traditional & experience-

based knowledge partnerships for

“commons” science & management

Place-based TURFs and MPAs

Community-supported fisheries

Linkages

Vertical : “Co-management” & nested governance Local group/ outsiders

(NGOs, scientists)/ government authority

Shared decision-making, authority, responsibility

Large- and small-scale fisheries

Horizontal: networks Ex.: Too Big to Ignore

network (Canada); 2nd World Small-Scale

Fisheries Congress 21-25 Sept. 2014, Merida, MX

World Ocean CouncilEco-certification

programs Marine Stewardship

Council

Four stories

Newfoundland’s Fisheries: Tragedies of the commons and/or regime shifts;

New Jersey’s surfclam fishery: Privatization of the commons; efficiency, industry initiatives, and sea temperature change

Mexico’s lobster and abalone fisheries: Enclosure of the commons, community-based control and co-management. Marine reserves and resilience in face of ocean changes.

Oregon’s Pacific oyster hatcheries and acidification: surprise, adaptive responses.

>>all beg the question of ecosystem-based management

Ecosystem-Based Management & Adaptive Governance

Challenge---large spatial scope, more complex subject: Centralized decision-making for multi-disciplinary expertise, knowledge accumulation and analysis, interagency coordination

But also more Decentralized and Participatory across multiple scales, to monitor and capture detailed knowledge about ecological & social processes across local to global scales

Wilson 2009

General Lessons It’s wicked…

Rittel & Webber 1973

Governance of complex systems should be “polycentric” (Ostrom) and “interactive” (Kooiman)

You can’t go home again; Path dependency; irreversibility.

ITQs Horse is out of the barn

[Too little, too late]. Acidification Beyond panaceas

E. Ostrom 2007

Act boldly, risk failure AO Hirschman (The Hidden

Hand) But be adaptive

Holling; Gunderson et al. Muddling through vs.

Strategic Planning Chas. Lindblom

[Participate] Early and Often A. Capone?

Once they have seen gay Paree Cultural inertia and resistance

Thank you

Questions?