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Challenges and opportunities for mobilizing
sustainable bioenergy supply chains
Tat Smith University of Toronto
&
IEA Bioenergy Task 43 “Biomass Feedstocks for Energy Markets”
Theme 3: Reducing Our Carbon Intensity
Biological Solutions Forum
“Meeting Our GHG Goals”
Acknowledgements
Colleagues involved with IEA Bioenergy inter-Task Strategic Project
‘Mobilising sustainable bioenergy supply chains’
Agricultural residues for bioenergy and bio-refineries
• Supply chain project leadership:
• Niclas Scott Bentsen (supply chain leader) & Inge Stupak
• University of Copenhagen
• Maria Wellisch and colleagues
• Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
Boreal & temperate forests
• Supply chain project leadership
• Evelyne Thiffault
• NRCan – Canadian Forest Service
• International colleagues from 9 countries incl. Canada
Overall message—
Mobilizing Sustainable Bioenergy Supply Chains
The foundation for mobilising sustainable bioenergy supply
chains should be a competitive business case that is efficient
along the whole supply and value chain from the growing side to
energy markets and consumers.
Sustainability criteria can often be viewed as constraints on the
system, but also provide an adaptable framework that provides
an opportunity for all actors to engage and contribute to
sustainable deployment of bioenergy systems.
Challenges to resolve: • Develop competitive supply and value chains
• Quantify (+ / -) sustainability impacts of bioenergy supply chains
• Simplify governance of supply chains
GLOBAL BIOENERGY PERSPECTIVES
• Deployment level of IPCC scenarios by 2050
– 440-600 ppm CO2eq target: 80-150 EJ/year
– <440 ppm CO2eq target: 118-190 EJ/year
• Current bioenergy
– Modern bioenergy: 10-15 EJ/year
– Total bioenergy: 50 EJ/year
• Current production of other biomass
– Industrial roundwood: around 15 EJ/year
– Major agricultural crops: about 60 EJ/year.
Is a 10-fold increase likely, desirable, sustainable?
Forests and farms will continue to be a globally
important bioenergy feedstock… can we get greater
penetration?
Market penetration depends on: • Energy market development and penetration
• Feedstock supply chain complexity and cost
• Confidence in feedstock inventory estimates
• Development status of major conversion technologies
• Sustainability considerations
Forests and farms will continue to be a
globally important bioenergy feedstock… can we
get greater penetration?
Market penetration depends on: • Energy market development and penetration
• Feedstock supply chain complexity and cost
• Confidence in feedstock inventory estimates
• Development status of major conversion technologies
• Sustainability considerations
Source: The Globe & Mail, 12 Sept 2011
Canada’s electricity feedstocks, 2009
… a challenge to penetrate this sector by replacing existing capacity
8
Biomass share of total energy production
What challenges to moving % biomass up significantly?
(EIA, 2008; EUROSTAT, 2009)
FI & SE 80% share in
forest sector
( 320 PJ & 400 PJ
TGC)
CA ~80% share
in forest sector
(~600 PJ TGC)
Forests and farms will continue to be a
globally important bioenergy feedstock… can we
get greater penetration?
Market penetration depends on: • Energy market development and penetration
• Feedstock supply chain complexity and cost
• Confidence in feedstock inventory estimates
• Development status of major conversion technologies
• Sustainability considerations
Consider complexity of feedstock supply chains
All flows of assortments – farm & forest food, fuel, fibre
Sources: Filsberg et al. 2010 & http://www.openideo.com/
Swedish forest bioenergy supply chain Food supply chain
Forests and farms will continue to be a
globally important bioenergy feedstock… can we
get greater penetration?
Market penetration depends on: • Energy market development and penetration
• Feedstock supply chain complexity and cost
• Confidence in feedstock inventory estimates
• Development status of major conversion technologies
• Sustainability considerations
Source: Smith et al. 2009.
Biomass inventory studies conducted in Canada
for forest and agriculture sources of biomass
Huge variation in some estimates
… and what amount is sustainably and commercially available?
Forests and farms will continue to be a
globally important bioenergy feedstock… can we
get greater penetration?
Market penetration depends on: • Energy market development and penetration
• Feedstock supply chain complexity and cost
• Confidence in feedstock inventory estimates
• Development status of major conversion technologies
• Sustainability considerations
Conversion pathways – feedstocks to bioenergy and bio-based products
Source: E4tech 2009
IEA Bioenergy: ExCo:
2009:05
Development status of main technologies – upgrade, heat & power
Source: E4tech 2009
IEA Bioenergy: ExCo:
2009:05
Development status of main technologies – biofuels for transportation
Source: E4tech 2009
IEA Bioenergy: ExCo:
2009:05
Forests and farms will continue to be a
globally important bioenergy feedstock… can we
get greater penetration?
Market penetration depends on: • Energy market development and penetration
• Feedstock supply chain complexity and cost
• Confidence in feedstock inventory estimates
• Development status of major conversion technologies
• Sustainability considerations
Our responsibility & challenge:
Design low-impact systems • Identify risks to soils, water, biodiversity,
GHG balances
• Identify practices to mitigate risks
Develop standards and C&I for
sustainable management systems • Environmental
• incl. LCA
• Economic
• Social
Commit to certification of whole
value chain
Source: http://msue.anr.msu.edu & N.S. Bentsen 2013
Assessing risks – a soil conservation example
• There are multiple criteria for assessing soil conservation – Soil health
– Nutrient balances and availability
– Base cation status
– Crop growth
– Water quality
– Contribution to GHG balances
• Basis for risk assessment will vary according to intensity of management
… and, should we prevent damage or correct it later?
• Public & ENGO expectations continually increase…
Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management
University of Copenhagen
Source: N.S. Bentsen 2013
Straw removal is as
delicate issue. Soil
degradation is a threat to
future crop yields.
In the Danish scenarios,
soils with Dexter Ratio > 10
are excluded of straw
removal apart from straw
required for feed and
bedding.
Dexter ratio is the ratio
between soil carbon
content and clay content.
Soils of Canada
http://atlas.agr.gc.ca/agmaf; updated: 30 May 2011
What soil classification approaches are necessary?
Status of Canadian agricultural & forestry soil risk assessment research?
Increasing demand for Life Cycle Assessment of bioenergy systems…
Bird et al. -- IEA Bioenergy:ExCo:2011:03
A few points about certification systems and trade…
With more than 50 certification systems…
• Governance is increasingly complex
• Potential negative impacts along the whole supply chain
• Overlapping jurisdictions over Chain of Custody
• Trade may be restricted
• Can multiple governance systems be harmonized?
Fig. 10. World wood pellet trade streams above 10 ktonnes in 2010 based on [28,38,42,44,47,48].
Source: Lamers et al. 2012
Wood pellet trade streams, 2010
Global fuel ethanol trade in 2011 (net flow in ktonnes) (Assuming energy content = 27 GJ/tonnes)
(For Brazilian ethanol trade flows: Source: USDA, 2012; SECEX, 2012; CAMEX, 2013;
for the other trade flows: Source: Lamers, 2012)
Global trade in bioethanol, 2011
Global biodiesel trade in 2011 (net flow in ktonnes) (assuming energy content = 37.8 GJ/tonnes)
(Source: Lamers, 2012)
Global trade in biodiesel, 2011
Non-certified forest: 31% of managed forest
Managed Crown forestland in Canada
EU markets
Uncertified, but verified to comply with BMPs
100% certified SFM
Provincial policies and guidelines
EU standards
Voluntary certification: CSA, FSC, SFI
Certified forest: 69% of managed forest
Path 2
Path 1
Path 2
Graphics credit: Jessica Murray, University of Toronto.
Adapted from: Kittler et al. 2012
How well positioned are Canadian producers to deal with
multiple sustainability claims & levels of governance for Canadian exports to
EU markets? Note: EU standards for solid biomass not finalized
Overall message—
Mobilizing Sustainable Bioenergy Supply Chains
The foundation for mobilising sustainable bioenergy supply
chains should be a competitive business case that is efficient
along the whole supply and value chain from the growing side to
energy markets and consumers.
Sustainability criteria can often be viewed as constraints on the
system, but also provide an adaptable framework that provides
an opportunity for all actors to engage and contribute to
sustainable deployment of bioenergy systems.
Challenges to resolve: • Develop competitive supply and value chains
• Quantify (+ / -) sustainability impacts of bioenergy supply chains
• Simplify governance of supply chains
Urgent need for interdisciplinary collaboration
Forming new science-industry-policy communities
ecoENERGY Innovation Initiative
.
IEA Bioenergy inter-Task Strategic Project
„Mobilising Sustainable Bioenergy Supply Chains‟
The overall objective for 2013-15 period is to enhance the
mobilization of sustainable bioenergy supply chains globally.
• Identification of the necessary elements of a successful and
sustainable bioenergy supply chain.
• Develop new and existing frameworks that seek to
understand and explain the underpinning elements that
contribute to sustainable supply chains.
• Include elements of availability of feedstock, applicable
conversion processes, GHG balances, land use issues,
governance mechanisms and other aspects of bioenergy
production and supply.
• Integration across complex systems which leads to transfer
of knowledge to new and upcoming bioenergy technologies
or feedstocks in different regions of the world.
IEA Bioenergy inter-Task Strategic Project
„Mobilising Sustainable Bioenergy Supply Chains‟
Supply chains proposed in Rotterdam (March 2013):
• Boreal & temperate forests
• Regional biogas production from organic residues
• Agricultural residues for bioenergy and bio-refineries
• Integration of lignocellulosic crops into agricultural
landscapes
• Cultivating pastures and grasslands: the sugar cane
ethanol case
