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Cer
eals
an
d O
ther
Sta
rch
Bas
ed S
tap
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are
co
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mp
tio
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s ch
ang
ing
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S. 1
Joint Meeting of the 30th Session of the Intergovernmental Group on Grains and the 41st Session
of the Intergovernmental Group on Rice
Rome 10-11 February 2004
CCP: GR-RI 04/CRS.5
Cereals and Other Starch Based Staples: are consumption
patterns changing?
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S. 2
• Introduction, Data and Methods
• Changes in dietary structures
• Importance of Cereals, Roots and Tubers,
Bananas and Plantains (CRBP) in daily diets
• Convergence and diversification in global CRBP
consumption patterns
• The main forces driving change
• Policy Implications
O U T L I N E
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S. 3
Comparison of Dietary Structures in Developed …
Developed Countries
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1961/63 1971/73 1981/83 1991/93 1999/01
Cal
orie
Sh
are
O ther Food
Sugar
O ils and Fats
Meat and Fish
Dairy
CRBP
2975 3150 3212 3223 3285calories >
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S. 4
... and Developing Countries
- Structures diverse, but for both groups strong growth in oils and livestock products …however, CRBP foods in decline
Developing Countries
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1961/63 1971/73 1981/83 1991/93 1999/01
Cal
orie
Sh
are
O ther Food
Sugar
O ils and Fats
Meat and Fish
Dairy
CRBP
1957 2122 2375 2541 2675calories >
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S. 5
Variation in Dietary Patterns
- Consumption patterns in South and East Asian countries most variable. Least variable in developed countries – saturation?
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America and the Caribbean
North Africa and Near East
Oceania
East and South East Asia
South Asia
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
WORLD
Variation
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S. 6
Relationship Between Dietary Shares and Total Calorie Intake
- A 1% increase in calorie intake results in falls in dietary shares of CRBP (-0.74%) and pulses (-0.55)
Commodity Elasticity (Responsiveness)
CRBP -0.743
Dairy 0.713
Fruit and Vegetables 0.027
Meat and Fish 0.604
Oils and Fats 0.656
Pulses -0.546Sugar 0.695
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S. 7
Calorie Intake & Dietary Shares of CRBP staples in Developing Countries
Total Calories
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
CRBP ShareCal
orie
s
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
72%
Shar
e
- Since the 1970s CRBP shares in developing countries have fallen rapidly…
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S. 8
Calorie Intake & Dietary Shares of CRBP staples in Developed Countries
Total Calories
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
CRBP Share
Cal
orie
s
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Shar
e
- …but remain well above developed country shareswhich have stabilized
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S. 9
Declines in Total Dietary Shares of CRBP Foods: 5% or more
- CRBP staples remain important food security crops, especially Africa
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S. 10
Declines in Total Dietary Shares of CRBP Foods: 10% or more
Have dietary shares of all CRBP products fallen?
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S. 11
Increases in Wheat Shares: 5% or more (1961-2001)
Wheat consumption has increased in many developing countries
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S. 12
Increases in Rice Shares: 5% or more (1961-2001)
Growth in rice consumption less pronounced and more regionally concentrated, esp. West Africa, Latin America, SE Asia
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S. 13
CRBP Structures: 1961/63
In the past, structures dominated by single CRBP foodstuffs – 6 distinct structures identified
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S. 14
CRBP Structures : 1999/2001
Now, structures diversified: dominated by wheat and rice. Evidence of convergence: 4 distinct structures identified. Handful of countries unchanged since 1961
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S. 15
Factors Driving CRBP Patterns
• URBANIZATION • INCOME • IMPORTS x• PREFERENCE SHIFTS ()• RELATIVE PRICES ??
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S. 16
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
• According to UN estimates, the world’s urban population is expected to increase by 70 percent over the next three decades:
Promote production of wheat and rice or accept increasing reliance on imports?
Promote processing of those CRBP products that have witnessed falling demand?