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Causation
Reasoning about how and why things happen
The Main Issue in Causal Reasoning:
Evaluation of a Causal Claim
The Main Issue in Causal Reasoning:
Evaluation of a Causal Claim
• May be intended as a causal hypothesis
If I persistently and obnoxiously get in someone's face, that will force them to take my demands seriously.
The Main Issue in Causal Reasoning:
Evaluation of a Causal Claim
• May be intended as a causal hypothesis
• May be intended as a conclusion based on observation or inductive inferencePower corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
Reasoning patterns that work
Reasoning patterns that work
Relevant difference reasoning
If an effect is present in one situation but not present in other similar situations, consider relevant differences as causes of the effect. Screen for alternative causes.
Reasoning patterns that work
Relevant difference reasoning
If an effect is present in one situation but not present in other similar situations, consider relevant differences as causes of the effect. Screen for alternative causes.
Common thread reasoning
If an effect is present in multiple situations, consider as a cause any feature that is present whenever the effect is present. Consider alternative causes.
Reasoning errors and patterns that don’t work well enough
Reasoning errors and patterns that don’t work well enough Post hoc fallacy (post hoc ergo propter hoc)
Occurs when the fact that one event occurred before another is uncritically taken as sufficient evidence that the earlier event caused the later event
Reasoning errors and patterns that don’t work well enough Post hoc fallacy
Occurs when the fact that one event occurred before another is uncritically taken as sufficient evidence that the earlier event caused the later event
Overlooking a common thread or cause
Reasoning errors and patterns that don’t work well enough Post hoc fallacy
Occurs when the fact that one event occurred before another is uncritically taken as sufficient evidence that the earlier event caused the later event
Overlooking a common thread or cause Focusing on irrelevant threads or differences
Reasoning errors and patterns that don’t work well enough Post hoc fallacy
Occurs when the fact that one event occurred before another is uncritically taken as sufficient evidence that the earlier event caused the later event
Overlooking a common thread or cause Focusing on irrelevant threads or differences Overlooking possibility of reversed causation
Reasoning errors and patterns that don’t work well enough Post hoc fallacy
Occurs when the fact that one event occurred before another is uncritically taken as sufficient evidence that the earlier event caused the later event
Overlooking a common thread or cause Focusing on irrelevant threads or differences Overlooking possibility of reversed causation Asserting a wrong common cause
Reasoning errors and patterns that don’t work well enough Post hoc fallacy
Occurs when the fact that one event occurred before another is uncritically taken as sufficient evidence that the earlier event caused the later event
Overlooking a common thread or cause Focusing on irrelevant threads or differences Overlooking possibility of reversed causation Asserting a wrong common cause Appealing to anecdotal evidence
Problems in causal reasoning
Problems in causal reasoning Circularity
Occurs when the statement of cause essentially restates the effect, typically as a definition or description
Example: The explosion was caused by a rapid release of energy
Problems in causal reasoning Circularity
Occurs when the statement of cause essentially restates the effect, typically as a definition or description
Testability issuesOccur when the statement of cause is inappropriately difficult or impossible to falsify
Example (from the not-too-distant past): The illness is caused by tiny things that can't be seen.
Note that this statement of cause turned out to be right in some cases, but one would need to do some good inductive reasoning to justify this conclusion.
Problems in causal reasoning Circularity
Occurs when the statement of cause essentially restates the effect, typically as a definition or description
Testability issuesOccur when the statement of cause is inappropriately difficult or impossible to falsify
Specificity issuesOccur when the statement of cause is inappropriately vague, especially from use of undefined terms
Example: The illness is caused by a pathogenic agent.
Problems in causal reasoning Circularity
Occurs when the statement of cause essentially restates the effect, typically as a definition or description
Testability issuesOccur when the statement of cause is inappropriately difficult or impossible to falsify
Specificity issuesOccur when the statement of cause is inappropriately vague, especially from use of undefined terms
Inclusion of unnecessary assumptions
Problems in causal reasoning Circularity
Occurs when the statement of cause essentially restates the effect, typically as a definition or description
Testability issuesOccur when the statement of cause is inappropriately difficult or impossible to falsify
Specificity issuesOccur when the statement of cause is inappropriately vague, especially from use of undefined terms
Inclusion of unnecessary assumptions Conflict with well-established theory
Critical thinking theory places the burden of proof on new or unusual ideas
Causal reasoning alternatives Materialism
All events have at least one physical/material cause and no non-material cause
Single causationEvery effect has one and only one unique cause
Dependent co-arising (Buddhist)At least two entities must participate in the causation of any phenomenon, which is made possible by the natures of the entities involved
Theory of changes (Chinese)Situations have essential structures that tend to change in patterned ways