Catholic Climate AmbassadorsCatholic Climate AmbassadorsReflection and TrainingReflection and Training

Glenn Patrick Juday, Professor of Forest EcologyGlenn Patrick Juday, Professor of Forest Ecology

School of Natural Resources and Agricultural SciencesSchool of Natural Resources and Agricultural SciencesUniversity of Alaska Fairbanks University of Alaska Fairbanks

Presentation Center, Los Gatos, CAPresentation Center, Los Gatos, CA04-06 March, 201104-06 March, 2011

1. Understanding Human Dependence 1. Understanding Human Dependence On Climate: An Overview of The On Climate: An Overview of The

Science of Climate ChangeScience of Climate Change

II. Oath of Fidelity on Assuming a Church Office(Adapted from the Formula for the Christian faithful referred to in Canon 833, Nos. 5-8).

I, Glenn JudayGlenn Juday, on assuming the office of trainer for Catholic Climate trainer for Catholic Climate AmbassadorsAmbassadors, promise that I shall always preserve communion with the Catholic Church whether in the words I speak or in the way I act.

In carrying out my charge, which is committed to me in the name of the Church, I shall preserve the deposit of Faith in its entirety, hand it on faithfully and make it shine forth. As a result, whatsoever teachings are contrary I shall shun.

May God help me in this way and the holy Gospels of God which I touch with my hands.

PART A: PART A:

• DOES ANY OF THIS CLIMATE • DOES ANY OF THIS CLIMATE STUFF MATTER - STUFF MATTER - REALLY?REALLY?

All humans alive today are descended from a single man who lived in Africa around 60,000 years ago.

Weiss, G.; Von Haeseler, A (1996). "Estimating the Age of the Common Ancestor of Men from the ZFY Intron". Science 272 (5266): 1359.

Male MRCAMale MRCAAll humans alive today are descended from a single woman who lived in Africa around 200,000 years ago.

Female MRCAFemale MRCA

Behar et al., D; Villems; Soodyall; Blue-smith; Pereira; Metspalu; Scozzari; Makkan et al. 2008. The dawn of human matrilineal diversity.

Journal of Human Genetics 82 (5): 1130–1140.

FINDINGS OF SCIENCE,AGREE WITH DOGMA OF THE FAITH.

Toba volcano, ~ 71K Toba volcano, ~ 71K B.C. B.C.

(Island of Sumatra, (Island of Sumatra, Indonesian archipelago)Indonesian archipelago)

Toba volcano: (greatest rock volume erupted in the past 28 million years)

Temperature anomalies following the Toba eruption ~73K ybpTemperature anomalies following the Toba eruption ~73K ybp

The human population “bottleneck”The human population “bottleneck”

• In the range of 100K to 70K years ago, the total human population was reduced to a few thousand reproducing individuals.

• The population stayed low for 400 to 10k yrs.

• The severe human population reduction can be associated in time with known climatic upheavals.

The human family tree mapThe human family tree mapSource:National Geographic Societyhttp://blog.zap2it.com/kate_ohare/science/

”… we can say with some confidence that … humanity's 'out of Africa' migration was around 60-70,000 years ago.”

Pedro Soares, Luca Ermini, Noel Thomson, Maru Mormina, Teresa Rito, Arne Röhl, Antonio Salas, Stephen Oppenheimer, Vincent Macaulay, & Martin B. Richards. 2009. Correcting for Purifying Selection: An Improved Human Mitochondrial Molecular Clock American Journal of Human Genetics. 84 (6): 740– 59.

Stanley H. Ambrose. 2003. Did the super-eruption of Toba cause a human population bottleneck? Reply to Gathorne-Hardy and Harcourt-Smith. Journal of Human Evolution 45: 231–237.

“1. Mounting geological evidence strongly suggests the eruption … caused a millennium of the coldest temperatures of the Upper Pleistocene.”

“2. Numerous genetic studies suggest that the population bottleneck was real … and that it … was unlikely to have been shorter than 20 generations, and may have been longer than 500.

“3. stable environments … did not foster widespread adoption of the strategic cooperative skills necessary for survival in the last glacial era …. but they were crucial for survival when volcanic winter arrived. We are the descendants of the We are the descendants of the few small groups of tropical Africans who united in the few small groups of tropical Africans who united in the face of adversity.” face of adversity.”

Toba eruption and the human population “bottleneck”Toba eruption and the human population “bottleneck”

Martin Wiliams, Stanley Ambrose, Sander van der Kaars, Carsten Ruehlemann, Umesh Chattopadhyaya, Jagannath Pal, and Parth Chauhan. 2009. Environmental impact of the 73 ka Toba super-eruption in South Asia. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 284 (3-4): 295-314.

“2009 - Our results demonstrate that the Toba eruption caused climatic cooling and prolonged deforestation in South Asia, and challenge claims of minimal impact on tropical ecosystems and human populations.”

Andrew S. Cohen, Jeffery R. Stone, Kristina R. M. Beuning, Lisa E. Park, Peter N. Reinthal, David Dettman, Christopher A. Scholz, Thomas C. Johnson, John W. King, Michael R. Talbot, Erik T. Brown, and Sarah J. Ivory. 2007. Ecological consequences of early Late Pleistocene megadroughts in tropical Africa. PNAS 104 (42) 16422-16427.

The new finding provides an ecological explanation for the Out-of-Africa hypothesis that suggests all humans descended from just a few people living in Africa sometime between 150,000 and 70,000 years ago.We've got an explanation for why that might have occurred -- tropical Africa was extraordinarily dry about 100,000 years ago," said Cohen, ... "Maybe human populations just crashed."

Climate change disruption appears to have brought the human race to the brink of extinction. No other cause is known to have done so.

On the other hand, civilization arose in part as On the other hand, civilization arose in part as a response to vast and powerful climate a response to vast and powerful climate warming that ended the last Ice Age very warming that ended the last Ice Age very suddenly.suddenly.

““We are the descendants of the few small groups of We are the descendants of the few small groups of tropical Africans who united in the face of adversity.” tropical Africans who united in the face of adversity.”

Peace With God the Creator, Peace With All of Creation, Message of His Holiness Pope John Paul II for The Celebration of the World Day of Peace, 1 January 1990. http://www.vatican.va/holy_father/john_paul_ii/messages/peace/documents/hf_jp-ii_mes_19891208_xxiii-world-day-for-peace_en.html

POPE JOHN PAUL II - 1990“The gradual depletion of the ozone layer and the related ‘greenhouse effect’ has now reached crisis proportions as a consequence of industrial growth, massive urban concentrations and vastly increased energy needs. Industrial waste, the burning of fossil fuels, unrestricted deforestation, … all of these are known to harm the atmosphere and environment. The resulting meteorological and atmospheric changes range from damage to health to the possible future submersion of low-lying lands.

While in some cases the damage already done may well be irreversible, in many other cases it can still be halted. It is It is necessary, however, thatnecessary, however, that the entire human community the entire human community - individuals, States and international bodies - take - individuals, States and international bodies - take seriously the responsibility that is theirs”seriously the responsibility that is theirs”

carbon dioxide

PART B: PART B:

WHAT MAKES THE EARTH WARMER OR WHAT MAKES THE EARTH WARMER OR COLDER?COLDER?

B. SHORTER TIME SCALESB. SHORTER TIME SCALES

1.1. The sun and solar variability.The sun and solar variability.

2. Volcanic eruptions.2. Volcanic eruptions.

3. Coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation3. Coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation

4. Changes in atmospheric greenhouse gasses.4. Changes in atmospheric greenhouse gasses.

A.A. LONG TIME SCALESLONG TIME SCALES

1. Orbital mechanics1. Orbital mechanics

The path of energy in and out of the Earth climate systemThe path of energy in and out of the Earth climate system

Faucet (IN)Faucet (IN)

Drain (OUT)Drain (OUT)

The path of energy in and out of the Earth climate systemThe path of energy in and out of the Earth climate system

Faucet (IN)Faucet (IN)

1. The sun and solar variability 1. The sun and solar variability

Approximate size of Earth for comparison

sunspot area

solar magnetic strength

now

now

Solar variability influence Solar variability influence

• • Higher sunspot numbers = Earth warmsHigher sunspot numbers = Earth warms

- Satellite-measured total solar irradiance - Satellite-measured total solar irradiance (ACRIM) = +0.047% per decade for cycle 21-23 (ACRIM) = +0.047% per decade for cycle 21-23 (1980-2002) (1980-2002) (Scafetta and West 2005).(Scafetta and West 2005).

• • Shorter time between solar sunspot peaks = Earth Shorter time between solar sunspot peaks = Earth

warms warms (Friis-Christensen and Lassen 1991).(Friis-Christensen and Lassen 1991).

• • Past 60 yrs. - the Sun more active than last several Past 60 yrs. - the Sun more active than last several millennia millennia (Solanki et al. 2005).(Solanki et al. 2005).

- Past 8,000 yrs. mean sunspot number = 28.7 (s.d. 16.2)- Past 8,000 yrs. mean sunspot number = 28.7 (s.d. 16.2)- Since 1940 mean sunspot number = 75, (+2.5 s.d.)- Since 1940 mean sunspot number = 75, (+2.5 s.d.)

2. Volcanic cooling2. Volcanic cooling

TO COOL EARTH’S CLIMATE, A VOLCANO MUST:TO COOL EARTH’S CLIMATE, A VOLCANO MUST:

• • Erupt powerfully enough to inject materialErupt powerfully enough to inject material into upper atmosphere.into upper atmosphere.

• • Erupt material that is rich in sulfur oxides (little mirrors)Erupt material that is rich in sulfur oxides (little mirrors)

• • Be big enough to produce a great volume.Be big enough to produce a great volume.

The path of energy in and out of the Earth climate systemThe path of energy in and out of the Earth climate system

““LittleLittlemirrors”mirrors”

June, 1991 - Mt. Pinatubo, June, 1991 - Mt. Pinatubo, PhilippinesPhilippines

BOOM!BOOM!

1783 eruption of Laki volcanic fissure, Iceland

Effect of the 1783 eruption of Laki on Icelandic demography

1 out of 5 Icelanders dies1 out of 5 Icelanders dies

Cooling effect of the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption Cooling effect of the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption

1992 = shortest snow free season in central Alaska since 1992 = shortest snow free season in central Alaska since 1904; start of seasonal snowpack = September 12.1904; start of seasonal snowpack = September 12.

dip ordip orwavewave

dip ordip orwavewave

3. Coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation3. Coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation

Fate (storage) of increased heat retained in the Fate (storage) of increased heat retained in the Earth climate systemEarth climate system

(warming for the period 1993 to 2003) calculated from IPCC AR4 5.2.2.3

The vast majority of the recent extra heat from

greenhouse gasses that has been retained in the Earth climate system has been

stored in the world ocean.

Ocean93.4%

When some of the excess energy is released to the atmosphere (e.g. El Nino) the atmosphere warms markedly and rapidly.

Ocean heat Ocean heat anomaly in 2009anomaly in 2009

(heat anomaly (heat anomaly locations vary from locations vary from

year to year)year to year)

Trend in ocean Trend in ocean heat content heat content 1955 - 20091955 - 2009

(but heat anomaly (but heat anomaly is steadily is steadily

increasing)increasing)

Ocean heat Ocean heat storage/storage/

release is release is variable invariable in

space and timespace and time

L

H

Juneau Airport Mean temperatures

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

2006200320001997199419911988198519821979197619731970196719641961195819551952194919461943

year

degrees C

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

MAT May:Aug

RegimeRegimeshiftshift

Source: http://sciencenews.org/view/feature/id/65734/title/The_final_climate_frontiers

Effect of atmospheric aerosolic compounds on radiant energy

The path of energy in and out of the Earth climate systemThe path of energy in and out of the Earth climate system

Faucet (IN)Faucet (IN)

Drain (OUT)Drain (OUT)

4. Changes in atmospheric greenhouse 4. Changes in atmospheric greenhouse gasses. gasses.

Pre-industrial Pre-industrial level = ~280 ppmlevel = ~280 ppm

PART C: PART C:

• SO, ADDING THIS ALL UP, WHAT • SO, ADDING THIS ALL UP, WHAT DOES IT MEAN?DOES IT MEAN?

Change of climate forcings, in watts per square meter, between 1750 and 2000. (Vertical bars show estimated uncertainty.)

J. Hansen, M. Sato, R. Ruedy, L. Nazarenko, A. Lacis, G. A. Schmidt, G. Russell, I. Aleinov, M. Bauer, S. Bauer, N. Bell, B. Cairns, V. Canuto, M. Chandler, Y. Cheng, A. Del Genio, G. Faluvegi, E. Fleming, A. Friend, T. Hall, C. Jackman, M. Kelley, N. Kiang, D. Koch, J. Lean, J. Lerner, K. Lo, S. Menon, R. Miller, P. Minnis, T. Novakov, V. Oinas, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Perlwitz, D. Rind, A. Romanou, D. Shindell, P. Stone, S. Sun, N. Tausnev, D. Thresher, B. Wielicki, T. Wong, M. Yao, S. Zhang. 2005. Efficacy of climate forcings. Journal of Geophysical Research, VOL. 110, D18104, 45 PP. doi:10.1029/ 2005JD005776.

1. The land hemisphere

2. Already hot

3. The water hemisphere

Source: NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysishttp://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

Source: NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

Temperature trends at San Diego

Prescribed climate (heat) forcings.

Ammann C M et al. PNAS 2007;104:3713-3718

©2007 by National Academy of Sciences

Comparison of NCAR CSM simulations with proxy reconstructions and instrumental data.

Ammann C M et al. PNAS 2007;104:3713-3718

©2007 by National Academy of Sciences

PART D: PART D:

• WAIT A MINUTE, HOW SURE ARE • WAIT A MINUTE, HOW SURE ARE WE ABOUT ALL THIS?WE ABOUT ALL THIS?

Source: http://www.skepticalscience.com/10-Indicators-of-a-Human-Fingerprint-on-Climate-Change.html

1. Humans are currently emitting around 30 billion tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere every year (CDIAC )

2. The type of carbon that comes from fossil fuels is increasing in the atmosphere (Manning 2006).

3. Oxygen levels are falling in line with the amount of carbon dioxide rising, (Manning 2006).

4. The carbon found in the wood of trees and coral (going back several centuries) display a recent sharp rise in the type of carbon that comes from fossil fuels (Pelejero 2005).

5. Satellites measure less heat escaping out to space, at the particular wavelengths that CO2 absorbs heat, thus finding "direct experimental evidence for a significant increase in the Earth's greenhouse effect". (Harries 2001, Griggs 2004, Chen 2007).

10 indicators of human-caused, global-scale warming

6. Surface measurements confirm more downward infrared radiation back to the Earth rather than into space (Philipona 2004, Wang 2009). In particular, more heat is radiated downward in the wavelengths emitted by CO2. "this experimental data should effectively end the argument by skeptics that no experimental evidence exists for the connection between greenhouse gas increases in the atmosphere and global warming." (Evans 2006).

7. A greenhouse gas effect should cause faster warming at night than during the day, and this has been documented (Braganza 2004, Alexander 2006).

8. Greenhouse warming of the lower atmosphere should cooling the upper atmosphere – the stratosphere, and this is documented (Jones 2003).

10 indicators of human-caused, global-scale warming

9. With the lower atmosphere (the troposphere) warming and the upper atmosphere (the stratophere) cooling, the boundary between them (the tropopause) should rise. This has been observed (Santer 2003).

10. An even higher layer of the atmosphere, the ionosphere, should cool and contract in response to greenhouse warming. This has been observed by satellites (Laštovi?ka 2006).

10 indicators of human-caused, global-scale warming

Source: http://www.skepticalscience.com/10-Indicators-of-a-Human-Fingerprint-on-Climate-Change.html

PART E: PART E:

• WHAT HAVE WE GOT TO DO • WHAT HAVE WE GOT TO DO WITH ALL THIS?WITH ALL THIS?

Fossil DepositsDeposits6.36.3

About 16,00016,000

1.61.6

The Global Carbon CycleThe Global Carbon Cycleunits =units = Gt C yGt C y-1-1 (Gt C in storage)(Gt C in storage)

B. …and forest land clearing esp. in the tropics

C.…are leading to a build up of CO2

in the atmosphere.

A. Fossil emissions ...

AtmosphereAtmosphere

3.33.3750750

92.392.3

OceansOceans39,00039,000

90.090.0

62.362.3

60.060.0PlantsPlants

SoilSoil

500500

20002000

Fossil fuel combustionFossil fuel combustion 6.3 6.3 Tropical forest land use changeTropical forest land use change + + 1.61.6Total C (to the bad)Total C (to the bad) 7.9 7.9

Uptake and storage on landUptake and storage on land 2.3 2.3 Uptake and storage in oceansUptake and storage in oceans + + 2.32.3Total C (to the good)Total C (to the good) 4.6 4.6

Giga tons of Giga tons of carbon per yearcarbon per year

7.97.9 - - 4.64.6 = = 3.33.3

Annual net carbon Annual net carbon to atmosphereto atmosphere

GLOBAL CARBON BALANCEGLOBAL CARBON BALANCE

PART F: PART F:

• HASN’T THIS ALL HAPPENED • HASN’T THIS ALL HAPPENED BEFORE?BEFORE?

Warm Periods in the Past

Holocene Thermal Maximum HTM HTM 12,000 to 6,000 years before present (12 to 6 kyr BP)

Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) MISMIS5e 5e 125,000 years before present (125 kyr BP)

Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) MISMIS11 11 400,000 years before present (400 kyr BP)

HTMHTM(6 to 12 kbp)(6 to 12 kbp)

MISMIS5e5e(125 kbp)(125 kbp)

MISMIS1111(400 kbp)(400 kbp)

Warm Periods in the Past

Holocene Thermal Maximum HTM HTM (12 to 6 kyr BP12 to 6 kyr BP)• Warmer summers because of orbit• Likely cooler Mean Annual Temperatures

Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) MISMIS5e5e (125 kyr BP125 kyr BP)• Spike of 3K to 5K yr warmth; now approaching or exceeding• Sea level 2m higher (West Antarctic Ice Shelf may

have melted)

Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) MISMIS11 11 (400 kyr BP400 kyr BP)• Broad 20K period of sustained warmth

11 deg. C (20F) 11 deg. C (20F) very sudden warmingvery sudden warming

GISP (Greenland Ice Core Project) Ice Core Temperatureand Accumulation Data (Source: Alley R.B. 2000)

PART G: WHAT’S THE DOWNSIDE PART G: WHAT’S THE DOWNSIDE RISK IF WE DO NOTHING? RISK IF WE DO NOTHING?

Runaway Runaway greenhousegreenhouse

effect effect - -

a planet killer.a planet killer.

Downside risk:Downside risk:

A 9-step program with a proven recordof destroying a substantial amount of

all life on the planet and extinctinga large share of all species.

“Impact from the deep” by Peter D. Ward.Scientific American. October 2006. Pp 64-71.

““Strangling heat and gases emanating from theStrangling heat and gases emanating from theearth and sea, not asteroids, most likely causedearth and sea, not asteroids, most likely causedseveral ancient mass extinctions. Could the same several ancient mass extinctions. Could the same killer-greenhouse conditions build once again?”killer-greenhouse conditions build once again?”

1. Massive volcanic activity (fissure flows esp.) releases vast amounts of carbon dioxide (900 ppm) and methane.

2. Rapid global warming.

3. Warm ocean absorbs less oxygen; anaerobic bacteria flourish.

4. Anoxia destabilizes chemocline (boundary of oxygenated seawater vs. saturated H2S zone).

5. H2S upwelling to ocean surface (“burping”)

6. Green and purple sulfur bacteria thrive and dominate in oceans - oxygen breathers suffocate.

7. H2S gas kills large areas of land animals and plants.

8. H2S destroys upper atmosphere ozone shield.

9. Strong increase in UV radiation kills large portion of remaining life on earth.

It happened:End Permian and Triassic - 251 and 201 mya.Paleocene thermal extinction - 54 mya.

Last extinction:Last extinction:900 ppm 900 ppm

Prev 0.5 mill yr:Prev 0.5 mill yr:180 - 280 ppm 180 - 280 ppm

Current:Current:~ 390 ppm ~ 390 ppm

Annual rise:Annual rise:1.5 to 2.0 ppm1.5 to 2.0 ppm

Expect 30 to 70 more years of strong Expect 30 to 70 more years of strong warming if human-caused emissions warming if human-caused emissions stop tomorrow.stop tomorrow.

CONCLUSION:CONCLUSION: Climate change is a “must-solve” Climate change is a “must-solve” problem (eventually), probably requiring:problem (eventually), probably requiring:

• • Greater solidarityGreater solidarity

• Discovery of common interest• Discovery of common interest

• Negotiation• Negotiation

• Mutual self-restraint• Mutual self-restraint

THE END OF PRESENTAION 1. THE END OF PRESENTAION 1.

Understanding Human Dependence On Climate: An Understanding Human Dependence On Climate: An Overview of The Science of Climate ChangeOverview of The Science of Climate Change